T25 - Tula + Voronezh (Full Version)

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Oshawott -> T25 - Tula + Voronezh (5/19/2014 11:28:44 PM)

T25 - Tula + Voronezh

As you can tell he is moving his troops west. This is a very sensible approach.

I have a real problem with organization. In this game it is much better then usual. It is hard to organize all these troops. I try to only move the necessary divisions/corps.

I created a total of 25 cavalry corps. I know that this is boring but I put 3 sappers in each corps. The reason for this is that otherwise my troops have no chance of breaking through the fortification belt. I created all these sappers in STAVKA from T15 on so that they would be at 50 morale during blizzard.

From the screenshots you can also tell that I have created 3 tank armies. I will try to let them participate in combats as much as possible. I am also hoping for a breakthrough but that might not happen. I will also use the tank brigades in these armies for reserve activation. Unfortunately, reserve activation for the Russians seems quite difficult to accomplish. I don't have much luck.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/101F8E6518194B95AA198329F17D77AA.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T25 - South (5/19/2014 11:32:56 PM)

T25 - South

He has a couple of good divisions in the south. Airlanding and a mountain division. The Romanian and Italian divisions are unsuitable for combat in blizzard. They almost route immediately.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/0719294D19944CC39B6618B24404C99A.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T25 - Crimea + Odessa (5/19/2014 11:36:31 PM)

T25 - Crimea + Odessa

This is clearly going to be an interesting part of the map. He brought reinforcements and they are tough to break as we will see. One attack out of Odessa. I have to figure out how to land an army HQ there.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/0C783277FECA428286B743AC7854A1E5.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T25 - Battles (5/19/2014 11:39:31 PM)

T25 - Battles

Just a couple of interesting battles from now on. These show how tough the fighting is in reduced blizzard. I have to deal with fortifications and reserve activations. Held results cause massive losses. But reserve activation also massively increases attacker losses.

The attack against 31 Infantry Division is a good example. Almost an entire army attacks this division. But fortifications and light woods makes the 1=2 rule necessary.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/91BFDA00A43249B8841AD753C69C184C.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T25 - Data (5/19/2014 11:45:48 PM)

T25 - Data

Still above 3 mio of course. Tank numbers are not so important I think. If I understand correctly he doesn't even put his Panzer divisions on refit. He draws down the existing tanks and then uses the tanks in the pool to refit his Panzer divisions before the march offensive. Good idea!



[image]local://upfiles/46668/B1DC119BEB6349DBA45466969DE954C5.jpg[/image]



GamesaurusRex -> RE: T11 - Combats (5/20/2014 3:34:51 AM)

As a courtesy to you, since this is your AAR, I will refrain from making any future comments on them.

As for 15 turns without a single HELD ? That is truly amazing.



loki100 -> RE: T25 - North (5/20/2014 5:51:07 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

T25 - North

Alright, let's continue this AAR. In real life we are at T30 but I only now had time to prepare T25.

STEF78 is a very good defender. Many units are split up into regiments. The front line usually consists of a full division and a regiment. I think this maximized reserve activation. Motorized divisions are mainly used as reserves. Panzers for counterattacking. It is a very good setup!

On the first turn of blizzard I did nothing but deliberate attacks and I still got numerous HELD results. It looks like the Leningrad front is unbreakable. South of Lake Ilmen it is easier to make progress.

I continue to supply my troops at Leningrad. This is such an interesting situation.




Guess on this sector, even the held results have the advantage of hitting the Finnish manpower pool which will speed up the point when they run out?



Oshawott -> RE: T25 - North (5/20/2014 11:38:25 AM)

quote:

Guess on this sector, even the held results have the advantage of hitting the Finnish manpower pool which will speed up the point when they run out?


I attacked both hexes with the Finnish troops from 3 sides but I barely made a dent in the fortifications. If I had some cavalry Corps up there I would probably continue to hit those hexes. Instead I will monitor morale of these units and might strike at a later point. It is more attractive to me to push further south and try to unhinge his defenses.



jwolf -> RE: T25 - North (5/20/2014 1:19:37 PM)

The situation at Leningrad is fascinating and very strange.  I can't recall seeing this combination before, with the city cut off from supply but the Germans unable to capture it before the blizzard season.  That makes the stakes very high during the winter.



Oshawott -> AAR on hold (5/21/2014 11:24:27 PM)

deleted



Flaviusx -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 1:10:49 AM)

Once you really understand the way combat works in this game, it is in fact highly predictable and entirely possible to contrive matters to succeed at rates well over 90%. The combat model isn't transparent, granted, and it takes a good deal of testing to get a feel for it. But here's a simple enough heuristic for the Soviet player: match the defender's displayed defensive CV. (This only works so long as the 2:1 rule is in play; once that goes away you need to jack that up to 1.5-2 times displayed defensive CV, and it's less of a sure thing.) Assuming average leadership (5+ ratings) and perhaps a bombing run or two this is virtually a sure thing. The only real way to disrupt it is with reserves. But Axis players seldom deploy reserves prior to winter of 41.

So none of what's going on this game is unexpected given two skilled and experience players.

GRex, with all due respect, you ought to consider playing the game more and commenting less. You're a newbie. You're wading in the kiddie section of the pool, peeing in it, and kind of ruining it for everybody else in deeper waters. Get more games under your belt and let the adults do their thing.



hfarrish -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 2:14:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Once you really understand the way combat works in this game, it is in fact highly predictable and entirely possible to contrive matters to succeed at rates well over 90%. The combat model isn't transparent, granted, and it takes a good deal of testing to get a feel for it. But here's a simple enough heuristic for the Soviet player: match the defender's displayed defensive CV. (This only works so long as the 2:1 rule is in play; once that goes away you need to jack that up to 1.5-2 times displayed defensive CV, and it's less of a sure thing.) Assuming average leadership (5+ ratings) and perhaps a bombing run or two this is virtually a sure thing. The only real way to disrupt it is with reserves. But Axis players seldom deploy reserves prior to winter of 41.

So none of what's going on this game is unexpected given two skilled and experience players.

GRex, with all due respect, you ought to consider playing the game more and commenting less. You're a newbie. You're wading in the kiddie section of the pool, peeing in it, and kind of ruining it for everybody else in deeper waters. Get more games under your belt and let the adults do their thing.


Agreed with everything here...although in certain cases raw numbers more important than CV (i.e. one PZ div with a high defensive CV can often be kicked out by 6-9 infantry divs that don't add up to nearly that much in offensive CV).

I've been in similar situations before where I was accused of cheating with very high soviet win rates. It just isn't that hard to generate them if you know the mechanics.



Flaviusx -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 2:31:51 AM)

Raw numbers with low CV works fine, provided they make their leadership rolls. So if you go that route, put somebody good in charge of the attack. And try to keep it all under one HQ if possible to avoid coordination penalties. Truth is, 6 scratch soviet rifle divisions can almost always beat any single unfortified Axis unit out in the open barring reserves almost regardless of CV, but the heuristic I offer there is a way to calculate a minimum necessary commitment. With good leadership you can even get by with less.

This is all for 41, mind you. Later on the 2:1 rule goes away, and you have to deal with Axis forts and reserves rather than encounter battles with exposed enemy units.



hfarrish -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 2:35:04 AM)


Yeah, I'd say 6 is usually overkill for a single unfortified division in the open...you can probably make it happen with less, particularly with good leaders.



jwolf -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 3:18:03 AM)

Oshawott, with respect I think the only one who seriously believes you are cheating is GRex and we can ignore him. I for one would like to see you continue with this AAR (as well as the actual game!) and it might be more appropriate to ask the forum mods to deal with GRex. We have ample testimony from very experienced players that your success in combat is completely natural. I really don't think you need to defend yourself, but I understand the accusation stings even if it's obviously false.



loki100 -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 7:08:03 AM)

fully agree, I'm sorry that G-rex choose your AAR for his latest display, but I think few people give his opinions much credence.

Can understand that you are upset about this, but to me what you are showing is entirely credible and Stef78 has commented that he basically played into your hands with his initial approach.




karonagames -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 9:12:25 AM)

I think I was one of Oshawott's most recent opponents, playing over 130 turns against him, and from very early in our game it was clear he is a very, very good SU player, who knows how to get the absolute best out of the Red Army at every stage of it's evolution. I think he knows the value of engineers/sappers (check the values in all the posted screen shots) and hence the reason for my post in the other thread, and therefore knows how to "engineer" favourable results. Yes his hold result ratio was lower than the previous games I have played, but with respect to my previous opponents, Oshawott was a far better player.

Accusations of cheating against Oshawott are absolutely absurd. Anyone who really wants to play the SU effectively needs AAR's like this to learn from.



Erik Rutins -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 7:38:43 PM)

Hello everyone,

We've checked the game in question thoroughly through the server logs. There is no evidence at all of unusual activity or multiple downloads vs. uploads. The PBEM server tracks each game and sends out warnings to the players and alerts us if there is any suspicious activity.

I can confirm that as far as we are concerned, both players are playing this game straight. Oshawott is not cheating.

Regards,

- Erik



Oshawott -> RE: AAR on hold (5/22/2014 7:52:08 PM)

Thank you very much for checking the logs! I am very happy that I can continue this AAR.

I would also like to thank the other players for their positive comments.



Oshawott -> T26 - North (5/23/2014 2:23:41 AM)

T26 - North

I am still resupplying my troops in Leningrad and CV values almost double. I begin to really push south of Lake Ilmen. I also move two cavalry corps in this area that have finally reached 50 morale. Soon I will move 27th army further south to join the fight.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/6421FA31BFDA4EF2B709C16C8DA588A1.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T26 - Center (5/23/2014 2:25:56 AM)

T26 - Center

My airborne brigade was shattered. Not the result I was hoping for. I was able to encircle 183rd and 256th Infantry Division. Lots of reserve activation in this area. I do nothing but deliberate attacks.




[image]local://upfiles/46668/E3BA95D0DA224CC39B838F52A871B5D1.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T26 - Tula + Voronezh (5/23/2014 2:28:14 AM)

T26 - Tula + Voronezh

Lots of action here. I am trying to use my cavalry corps for as many attacks as possible. But there is no chance for any kind of encirclement.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/EB524CC5A7734C2DBAA6C13BC28BA4AD.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T26 - South (5/23/2014 2:33:30 AM)

T26 - South

Also good progress in the south. I am really trying to stack my units correctly so that they don't get routed. I am also putting lots of infantry divisions and tank brigades on reserve but in most cases they just seem to be too far away to join the action. I think I made a real mistake organizing my armies. It is probably better to have one rifle division less and two tank brigades instead.





[image]local://upfiles/46668/C07691349F70463C977E947FD13A3835.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T26 - Crimea + Odessa (5/23/2014 2:38:42 AM)

T26 - Crimea + Odessa

I am unable to break out of the Crimea yet. The land bridge is guarded well and my attack fails despite lots of reserve activations. It is not cold enough to use the other two entry points. I guess I should have put stronger troops into the Crimea.

Another attack out of Odessa. Flieger division will leave soon so he has to replace it with something else. The goal is still to ship an army HQ and reinforcements into Odessa.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/E2EDE0E90E4149D1AB793F654248E5F9.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T26 - Data (5/23/2014 2:42:59 AM)

T26 - Data

He is still above 3 mio but his tanks are getting low. He lost more the 100 in one turn. I am very surprised about my supply situation in this game. Supply stores are actually rising now. No comparison to my last game in which I ran short of supplies after the blizzard. It must be the bombers. I am only using them sparingly in this game.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/51F4DEA70C7241CDB5EFB95D1C09B426.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T27 - North (5/25/2014 2:56:36 PM)

T27 - North

The hexes with Finnish troops are simply to strong to attack them and terrain is unfavorable. Instead I push in northwest direction south of Lake Ilmen and towards Pskov.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/C625A4B2C77F4FA188D94376726B8759.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T27 - Fortress Leningrad (5/25/2014 2:58:41 PM)

T27 - Fortress Leningrad

This is just to show the effects of air drops. The increase in CV value is significant. Of course all those troops continue to loose morale every turn.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/3B6CD1F6B2194B9BBA4D20D7F975808B.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T27 - Center (5/25/2014 3:02:50 PM)

T27 - Center

Some heavy counterattacking in this area. He routs two of my cavalry corps and frees 183rd and 256th Infantry Division. I reseal the pocket but it requires an airborne brigade. This will probably be the last time I use paratroopers.

I have pushed the Germans away from Kaluga. This means I can finally move those 8 armament points that are still in the city.


[image]local://upfiles/46668/A1D8110B046846809576AB8FF9C7B052.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T27 - Southwest (5/25/2014 3:06:28 PM)

T27 - Southwest

In this sector of the front I have a hard time catching up with him. Therefore a number of cavalry corps are now very exposed.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/84326CC14BDD4579B396515040B37B4C.jpg[/image]



Oshawott -> T27 - South (5/25/2014 3:09:35 PM)

T27 - South

Same in the south although there is more fighting in this area. I pull newly formed guard divisions with low morale out of the front so that they can get to 50 morale.

TOE of my front troops is already quite low across the entire front. Many divisions are in the 60-70% range. But of course his troops are not doing much better.



[image]local://upfiles/46668/41641BD0D59D40A4A234D6CAF4052E1E.jpg[/image]



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