Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (Full Version)

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GaryChildress -> Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 12:06:41 AM)

What would some of the more experienced players say is probably a normal rate of attrition for aircraft in a normal grand campaign?

For example how many of the following aircraft types (taken as a whole group including different particular models) do you find yourself losing per month as either Allies or Japanese:

Land based fighters
Carrier based fighters
2E bombers
4E bombers
Carrier based attack aircraft (DBs, TBs etc.)
Ship based float planes (not including land based FP squadrons)
Patrol planes (PBY, Mavis, for example)
Recon aircraft

In other words, what would be a minimal replacement rate for these aircraft types, one that gives the player just enough to replenish typical monthly losses but not much more?

Thanks. [:)]

EDIT: Perhaps a 2nd related question to pin it down further... what would you say is a just barely adequate replacement rate per 100 planes in service during a typical month with an average number of combat sorties. In other words if I had several air units comprising a total of 100 a/c, how many replacement planes per month would typically be necessary to consistently keep that 100 planes in the air over the course of a grand campaign?



mind_messing -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 12:39:42 AM)

These sort of things are hard to pin down. There is no "normal" rate of attrition because there are never any "normal" grand campaigns.

I'll make what comments I feel I'm knowledgeable enough to make.

Land based fighters: a high, constant rate of attrition, seeing as they provide the bulk of CAP, sweep and escort missions.
Carrier based fighters: hardly any attrition between missions, but often massive losses following actions.
2E bombers: fairly heavy, these bombers form the backbone of both the Allied and Japanese bomber forces for most of the war.
4E bombers: provided they're nursed carefully and employed skillfully, attrition for heavy bombers can be kept down.
Carrier based attack aircraft (DBs, TBs etc.): hardly any attrition between missions, but often massive losses following actions.
Ship based float planes (not including land based FP squadrons): nothing significant that I've noticed.
Patrol planes (PBY, Mavis, for example) nothing significant that I've noticed.
Recon aircraft: fairly low, provided they're kept out of CAP.



I want to stress that there is no "typical" game. Some games will have knife-fights in the air from the first turn to the last, while others will be long periods of little, if any air combat between massive strikes, and some games fall somewhere in-between.



GaryChildress -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 1:46:50 AM)

Hmm. How about this then: If anyone would like to volunteer some game stats:

1. How many total aircraft have been lost so far in the campaign according to the intel screen?
2. What is the current date in your campaign?



PaxMondo -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 2:17:10 AM)

In my games against Andy AI, who has a huge pool of planes and pilots, I lose on avg 5 pilots/day on avg days. When I'm gearing up a major offensive, that will jump up to +30/day for several days and then settle down. I don't really watch planes that carefully as pilots are always what are my bottleneck. So my monthly losses are all about how many offensives did I kick off that month and that varies a lot. Clearly though, most months I'm losing >200 pilots ...

but this is against Andy AI who has unlimited pilots (they arrive between 60 - 70 EXP) and huge pools. So, my losses are far greater than a PBEM game ...



Quixote -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 2:23:55 AM)

Gary, Mind-Messing has it about right - this is wildly variable. As an example, here are the results from three different PBEMs, all dated within a month or so of each other in mid '42. After only 6+ months of war, there is still a 1000 point swing between Japanese losses from the high game to the low game. Losses simply depend on the style of the game, and on the players. I know it's not as concrete an answer as you're looking for, but I hope it helps.

[image]local://upfiles/29916/4BE1F2D81F6949709B2532450756B9C4.jpg[/image]



Feltan -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 2:41:51 AM)

Losses due to combat are just too variable to generalize. One's objectives and style of play will dictate -- not to mention the roll of the dice.

I don't think you are going to find meaningful numbers or trends due to this variability.

However, I have found the losses due to accidents are more deterministic; the Allies trend toward a loss rate of 0.12% of sorties flown, and the Japanese trend toward 0.14% of sorties flown.

Regards,
Feltan



cdoarm -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 2:52:59 AM)

I just started a PBM with Erkki, a competent player who went ahistorical and attacked the Philippines with everything he had. It is 20 December 1941 and the losses currently stand at 318 to 160 (roughly 2.5 to 1). Pretty heavy losses for both sides for this point of the war but the loss rate ought to slow down.



GaryChildress -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 2:53:32 AM)

Actually that is a great help. Thanks Quixote!

Ideally I'd like to break it down by aircraft type but this is a start.

Would anyone be able/willing to provide total loses per aircraft type in their current grand campaigns (for example, fighter, dive bomber, level bomber, etc.)? If you will post or else PM me your stats I'll post the results of the survey in this thread.

Ideally I'm trying to get an idea of how many of each type of aircraft are needed to keep a war going so I can gauge my build rates for my mod somewhat around these averages.

Below is a little chart showing averages for the stats you provided Quixote:

[image]local://upfiles/17421/E3C6A4E6D80D480AB2690BD8A1408421.gif[/image]



Gaspote -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 6:03:14 PM)

In my PBEM, scen 2
12 Dec 1942
3000 loss for the jap(me), 1,9 million sortie flown
2200 loss for the allied, 1,4 million sorties flown



rook749 -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/25/2014 6:37:47 PM)

Pm Sent. I would agree that is can vary depending on both how aggressive each side is. This is from my on-going game (AAR in signature) so let me know if you want any other data.



czert2 -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/26/2014 3:17:07 PM)

as many pointed out, it greatly differs on gameplay, i just say some general advices, booth come from books :)
first one is that if your forces have cca 4,8% of losses during each mission, they just after 20 missins are at cca 53% of original strenght.
And that german plane pructon have realy hard times to increase overal number of planes, they simply sometetimes even failed to replace combat losses. But need to say, at end of war when was virtualy no fuel for planes it was much easier to just take new plane that to repair damaged one.
And total figures for german war production from 39-45 is :
18,2k bombers
53,7k figters
12,3k battle (ground support)
6,3 recon
1,1k navy
3k transport
2k jets.



GaryChildress -> RE: Aircraft Attrition Rate in Grand Campaign (4/27/2014 6:35:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

These sort of things are hard to pin down. There is no "normal" rate of attrition because there are never any "normal" grand campaigns.




It's difficult to dismiss something before its even tried don't you think? So far it appears there is a "normal" range, of air losses which documented games are so far hovering around (more data would be better of course). For example, so far I haven't seen any reports averaging over 20 a/c per day (this is not to say that 20 a/c won't happen on a particular day just not the average). Most reports seem to be hovering between the 7-15 average area so far. So now we know a little more about aircraft attrition than we did before, don't you think? Before no one could even name this range other than to say, "a lot of fighters, less float planes" or whatever. Now we have some numbers to play with. Wouldn't you agree? [:)]



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