RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (Full Version)

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JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 8:37:22 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JeffK He could also be trying to get your attention in the wrong area, allocate some Divs to prep for the area, land a sacrifice which attracted your Cv's and a couple of Divisions only to land elsewhere. His Divs preppped for the SOPAC area could be second wave of an invasion where lack of prep pts doesnt hurt. Have you seen any sigint for "minor" ports where he can easily pick up the port then land his second wave easily. I could be totally wrong. Well, thats a thought. But the only major place I know of that he can land without prepp is OZ. And if he was coming full speed ahead for OZ why didn´t he go right away in his first landing? Regardning "minor" places I havn´t found any SIGINT at all. Of course I could have missed something but I have been through the intel reports over 10 times in the last couple of day. One possibility is of course that he simply prep those troops "in case of" but he intends to use them defensively for now. Personally I would be uncomfortable landing in the Samoans if I were him. - To my knowledge he has never reconned any of the bases there so he is going in completely blind. - Pago Pago and Savaii are level 4 AFs. - He knows my CVs are in the area and he will be forced to use KB initially to cover the Amphibs. - No friendly AF within range. - Major Allied forces behind him on Fiji. - He should be spotted perhaps as much as 5-7 days before he can land. - He knows there has been A LOT of allied shipping in the area and should presume major allied defenses are present. But I´m a pretty cautious guy. Perhaps he is counting on the IJN to simply drive off the Allied CVs. quote: ORIGINAL: Sangeli Well you've detected 4 units prepping for Pago Pago. What do they have in common? NONE of them have any AV. Moreover, prepping army HQs won't really have any real sort of impact on the battle making the prep near meaningless...except in giving away your intentions. If you ask me it seems the Pago Pago preparations are just a ruse. In fact they all might be ruses as prepping is really only important if you have to make an opposed landing which is only necessary for Pago Pago. I mean the IJN landed a naval guard unit in Fiji no problem; why would need to prep for Savaii? Most likely he started prepping all these units for Fiji and Samoa to distract you from the main event in mainland Australia. Certainly seems to be working as well. Ah, sorry I should have been clearer. The 16th and 48th are infantry divisions!

Encircled -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 9:15:47 AM)
quote: How much would be reasonable to expect him to be able to lift in one go? Can he lift 3 IDs + support troops this deep in SOPAC? Would it be reasonable to expect him to wait for a full prepp before trying to land? Personally I have bad experiences trying to land semi prepped when enemy troops are present on the landing site. Thoughts and experiences from JFBs on this? He's got the shipping capacity. Might be an idea to ask Greyjoy how prepared his units were when he landed in the teeth of a strong allied force at Geraldton and took it without heavy casualties?

aztez -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 10:47:04 AM)
Hmmmm.. intresting stuff! [:)] I doubt you signit is completely false here since it has numerous references towards Samoa and Fiji. My wild guess he is going for broke there and soon landing on either/both targets. Never played this guy and he is definately good opponent but he seems to be rolling the dice that you wohn't interfere with your carriers and surface assets here. Than again I might be completely wrong on all of the above! [:D] ...just my gut feeling...

Lowpe -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 11:02:45 AM)
Opposed invasions: it depends on how many troops you will face and whether or not they are suppressed. 50% would be my low number scaling up to higher percentages depending upon the relative strength of each side. Having said that, I did an opposed landing at a little more than 30 percent prep...follow up waves of landings suffered less even with lower prep. Japan, as mention, easily has the lift to a multiple division attack. You hardly have sunk anything.[:(]

offenseman -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 1:14:26 PM)
Try to make an educated guess as to if units prepping have been bought out or not. Many have prepped restricted units as maskirovka. That said, this does not seem to be the case since those units largely start unrestricted. 10th Guards being an exception. When he went into Oz as lightly as he did, I suspected he was going to go after Perth as well to starve the island out. He is perhaps hoping to draw your forces away to defend SE Oz and leave the west coast empty to the point where 4th Div and the Guards BDE can handle things. With the KB missing and where it was when it was last reported, it is possible he met some AOs and is sending them south of Oz and to the Perth area. And lets face it, he made sure they were seen. regarding shipping. With few losses sustained Japan has a lot of sealift capacity. More if he has converted many ships to xAK-t

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 2:36:54 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: aztez Hmmmm.. intresting stuff! [:)] I doubt you signit is completely false here since it has numerous references towards Samoa and Fiji. My wild guess he is going for broke there and soon landing on either/both targets. Never played this guy and he is definately good opponent but he seems to be rolling the dice that you wohn't interfere with your carriers and surface assets here. Than again I might be completely wrong on all of the above! [:D] ...just my gut feeling... Yeah, I don´t think he would "waste" at least two unrestricted IDs doing false intel. Not unless he has actually switched to the defensive. My gut also tells me he is coming. I think for Pago Pago. He has the best prepp level there. If he is successful he can easily deal with Suva after that. Definitively going to commit my CVs if I think the Samoans are in danger of falling. Or if a really good opportunity presents itself! quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Opposed invasions: it depends on how many troops you will face and whether or not they are suppressed. 50% would be my low number scaling up to higher percentages depending upon the relative strength of each side. Having said that, I did an opposed landing at a little more than 30 percent prep...follow up waves of landings suffered less even with lower prep. Japan, as mention, easily has the lift to a multiple division attack. You hardly have sunk anything.[:(] In the Samoans he will be landing against heavy forts (hope to get them to level 6) with good troops. I would have liked more AV on Savaii but there is none to be had. I have almost nothing on Upolu so he should be able to secure that. quote: ORIGINAL: offenseman Try to make an educated guess as to if units prepping have been bought out or not. Many have prepped restricted units as maskirovka. That said, this does not seem to be the case since those units largely start unrestricted. 10th Guards being an exception. When he went into Oz as lightly as he did, I suspected he was going to go after Perth as well to starve the island out. He is perhaps hoping to draw your forces away to defend SE Oz and leave the west coast empty to the point where 4th Div and the Guards BDE can handle things. With the KB missing and where it was when it was last reported, it is possible he met some AOs and is sending them south of Oz and to the Perth area. And lets face it, he made sure they were seen. regarding shipping. With few losses sustained Japan has a lot of sealift capacity. More if he has converted many ships to xAK-t Unless I missed something no prep on restricted units outside China. 10th Guards he must have bought out really early because they were on a boat very early in the game. Yeah, could be a feint of course. But the 4th ID and the guards BDE can´t take the Perth region alone. He needs more troops for that... can´t figure this out and it sucks having to defend on 3 locations (Fiji, Samoans and Perth). Interestingly enough I see very little moving for Burma. Only 2 IDs found there. Possible three... Started prepping 1800 AV for Rangoon this turn...if Tom continues to send everything down into SOPAC I may be able to land directly in Rangoon later in 42...

Lokasenna -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 3:13:39 PM)
It's entirely possible to have oodles of AKs, AMCs, and LSDs. Sighted them anywhere recently? They're all fast (18 or 20 knots) and with good capacity. Even AVs will load the cargo portion of units, and unload at the commissioned rate of 600. Chances are that if you haven't sighted them recently, they're staging somewhere for something.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 4:46:25 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna It's entirely possible to have oodles of AKs, AMCs, and LSDs. Sighted them anywhere recently? They're all fast (18 or 20 knots) and with good capacity. Even AVs will load the cargo portion of units, and unload at the commissioned rate of 600. Chances are that if you haven't sighted them recently, they're staging somewhere for something. Nope, not since he landed in OZ. He seems to move everything using hordes of PBs. A sub fired at an AK a couple of weeks ago in China Sea. But thats it.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 5:22:54 PM)
1st of June -42 ______________________________________________________________________________ So we reached the 1st of June. Aircraft wise its not very exciting but the Brits start getting the Hurricane IIc which is pretty much the same as the IIb but with cannons instead of MGs. ------------------------ China ------------------------ Most of the usable Chinese units make it to the mountains. I will try something desperate here and stack as much as I dare in a 20k SL hex and see what happens. Supply is nil so I will just have to watch DIS. ------------------------ India/Burma ------------------------ I begun shifting prep from defensive targets to offensive ones. As mentioned in a post I´ve started prepping the most powerful units for Rangoon. Also prepping for Ramree and Prome. Tom looks very weak in Burma with only 3 IDs. ------------------------ Oz ------------------------ Troops are back in Melbourne and Sydney. Should be back to full strength in 7-10 days. Managed to ambush another Betty strike. Nice! quote: Morning Air attack on Broken Hill , at 80,160 Weather in hex: Light rain Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 9 minutes Japanese aircraft G4M1 Betty x 45 Allied aircraft P-39D Airacobra x 20 P-400 Airacobra x 14 Japanese aircraft losses G4M1 Betty: 28 destroyed, 2 damaged No Allied losses Resources hits 3 I got another ID (the 56th) via SIGINT prepping for Perth. So that makes two IDs. Still not enough to be a serious threat. ------------------------ SOPAC ------------------------ Managed to fully unload everything at Suva. All units are now complete. Nice! Forts are building like crazy and are already at 3 (Nadi) and 4 (Suva). Airfield at Suva hit 4 and 150 P40s are now flying CAP over the base. I would have like to made the field B17 capable but I want the forts up to 6 before starting on the AF again. First prep of Suva pops up just 5 days after we kicked Tom off Nadi. quote: 4/65th Brigade is planning for an attack on Suva. Either its a coincidence and I never picked it up before or he wasn´t expecting me to move forward here. A new Arty unit is prepping for Pago Pago. quote: 3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion is planning for an attack on Pago Pago.

Lokasenna -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 6:20:48 PM)
Hey dingleberry! I just spent 10 or so minutes typing a response to your PM, and your inbox is full...and then I lost the response. I'll have to get back to you later [:'(].

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 6:30:10 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna Hey dingleberry! I just spent 10 or so minutes typing a response to your PM, and your inbox is full...and then I lost the response. I'll have to get back to you later [:'(]. Uhm...Oops? [:D]

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 6:52:38 PM)
2nd of June -42 ______________________________________________________________________________ More units appearing each day for the Samoans. quote: 4th Tank Regiment is planning for an attack on Pago Pago. Other then that no news. Loads of subs appeared between the Samoans and Fiji last turn. They are hanging around.

HansBolter -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 7:08:44 PM)
Looks like the Decisive Battle of '42 is in the making......

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 7:18:31 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna Hey dingleberry! I just spent 10 or so minutes typing a response to your PM, and your inbox is full...and then I lost the response. I'll have to get back to you later [:'(]. Let me guess . . . it was about attacking Perth? [:)]

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 7:22:42 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: HansBolter Looks like the Decisive Battle of '42 is in the making...... Indeed. I got 100% confirmation he is coming this turn. For the allies its win or lose. If I lose the Samoans and Fiji its definitively game over and towel tossing time. Not too happy with my position as I would have liked to reform the 1st and 2nd Marines. They are now scattered all over the map. But due to SL and the way the arrive I won´t be able to reform them. Would also have liked to put at least some smaller units on surrounding islands. We are about even strength in LCUs I think but I have terrain, forts and local CAP while he has control of the seas. Place your bets! He is bringing ALL he has.

Sangeli -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 7:26:20 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JocMeister 2nd of June -42 ______________________________________________________________________________ More units appearing each day for the Samoans. quote: 4th Tank Regiment is planning for an attack on Pago Pago. Other then that no news. Loads of subs appeared between the Samoans and Fiji last turn. They are hanging around. With the influx of new units prepping for Pago Pago as well as the appearance of subs it seems a lot more likely that the Japanese intend to make a move here. Priority for you is to keep your major air bases secure here and prevent the Japanese from capturing them; other bases are not really important. It's hard for me to imagine the Japanese invasion of Upolu (or any base with a small/no air base) going well for them. It would not be difficult to prevent the Japanese from building up and utilizing those sorts by this time in 1942. Then of course any LCUs that were landed needs to be loaded into ships again, move to the island with the actual fighting, then unload under your watch. Given that, I would concentrate on reinforcing and building up the major air bases in Suva and Pago Pago. It's pretty much a guarantee that any Japanese attack will require heavy suppression on those air bases so get as much AAA and engineers as possible with lots of aviation as well (I'd say at least 100 per base, preferably more). The best way to turn the Japanese invasion into a disaster with half the KB on the ocean floor is to make your LBA as disruptive and difficult to suppress as possible; honestly I see LCUs being less important than support units for the potential upcoming battle. 4E bombers can attack to and from Pago Pago and Suva respectively (though not every plane model can) which will present quite the problem for Japan if you can get your 4E bombers flying during a campaign.

Lowpe -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 11:33:26 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JocMeister Place your bets! He is bringing ALL he has. Savor it! This is where the game is great fun! I have always wanted to use those P39's in a strafing naval attack, but never get the chance because of range constraints. It sounds like you brought the kitchen sink too.

Lokasenna -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 11:46:56 PM)
You have towels in northern Europe? I mean, I know they surf in Norway, but... I don't know if this is really a win or lose situation for the entire campaign. It could be a large brick in a wall, but will it really finish off the wall? I'm not so sure... Try to bag some ships! Yours have longer legs. It might be painful for SAGs, but SAGs (when used correctly) can make KB scurry in a hurry.

Lowpe -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/21/2014 11:52:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna You have towels in northern Europe? I mean, I know they surf in Norway, but... I don't know if this is really a win or lose situation for the entire campaign. It could be a large brick in a wall, but will it really finish off the wall? I'm not so sure... Try to bag some ships! Yours have longer legs. It might be painful for SAGs, but SAGs (when used correctly) can make KB scurry in a hurry. You won't convince him that this isn't the final fight...I tried earlier. [:D] He should be in a really good place for an epic battle. He has been preparing for a long time, better intelligence...I am ready to read all about it![sm=00000613.gif]

Encircled -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 4:44:28 AM)
Got the coffee on Waiting for news!

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 4:54:39 AM)
Does anyone here really believe I can come back if I lose the Fijis and Samoans together withm 6-7 IDs worth of troops and most of the Allied BFs and Engineers? Especially considering Tom is already ahead with about 4,2:1 in VPs. Add the troops, ships and bases in SOPAC + Chungking and the rest of China and he will have a 6-7:1 lead and I will have no troops and no ships to try and bag 10.000 VPs in 6 months... If anyone believes that person have way more faith in me then I deserve! [:D]

witpqs -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 5:29:29 AM)
You spend more time thinking about losing than you could actually losing! [:-]

Cribtop -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 5:33:56 AM)
Can't see how Japan takes these heavily defended islands. Beware losing your fleet to defend islands he couldn't take anyway. That said, if you lose them, AV is pretty likely. Get him stuck in the tar baby and THEN drop the air/naval hammer when he tries to use his fleet against your ground forces. PS - I hope every single Allied sub on the face of the Planet is headed toward the battle zone.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 6:13:16 AM)
4th of June -42 ______________________________________________________________________________ Intel keep pouring in. And invasion fleet is coming! ------------------------ China ------------------------ Tom has started bombarding Chungking. Despite level 6 forts we take big losses each turn from bombardments and from the air. quote: Ground combat at Chungking (76,45) Japanese Bombardment attack Attacking force 3348 troops, 247 guns, 399 vehicles, Assault Value = 507 Defending force 75639 troops, 279 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1772 Allied ground losses: 350 casualties reported Squads: 12 destroyed, 12 disabled Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled ------------------------ OZ ------------------------ Perhaps Tom wasn´t trying to fool me when he said he ran out of A6M2s. Only seen M3s on sweep after that. A good day in the air as Tom sweeps Sydney. quote: Morning Air attack on Sydney , at 90,167 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 37,700 feet. Estimated time to target is 9 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M3 Zero x 27 Allied aircraft Hurricane IIb Trop x 11 P-39D Airacobra x 65 P-40E Warhawk x 15 Japanese aircraft losses A6M3 Zero: 6 destroyed Allied aircraft losses Hurricane IIb Trop: 1 destroyed P-39D Airacobra: 3 destroyed P-40E Warhawk: 2 destroyed quote: Morning Air attack on Sydney , at 90,167 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 32,700 feet. Estimated time to target is 8 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M3 Zero x 36 Allied aircraft Hurricane IIb Trop x 10 P-39D Airacobra x 47 P-40E Warhawk x 9 Japanese aircraft losses A6M3 Zero: 7 destroyed Allied aircraft losses Hurricane IIb Trop: 1 destroyed P-39D Airacobra: 6 destroyed P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed 26 allied losses for 28 Japanese. I´ll take that! [:)] ------------------------ Burma ------------------------ I´m starting to get more and more Recon in from the Mitchel group flying from Chittagong. Tom looks dangerously light in Burma. I know of only 2 IDs in total but I suspect the Imperial Guards is here as well bringing the number up to 3. This is dangerously low IMO. Although I need more time to buy out more Indian IDs and they need more time to get EXP/MRL up I will make a move here before 42 is up. ------------------------ SOPAC ------------------------ Major activity at Rabaul and Noumea. Here is some interesting SIGINT. There is more but I´ll keep that to myself for now. quote: 2nd Division is planning for an attack on Pago Pago. That makes it 2 IDs, 3 Artillery, 1 Tank and 1 HQ for Pago Pago. [image]local://upfiles/32406/0A39AA15AFB14530933D285DCF4258CC.jpg[/image]

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 6:15:01 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs You spend more time thinking about losing than you could actually losing! [:-] Well, technically I AM losing. [:D] You are right though. I should be more confident then I am but its hard to keep confidence up as the allies in 42.

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 6:18:48 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cribtop Can't see how Japan takes these heavily defended islands. Beware losing your fleet to defend islands he couldn't take anyway. That said, if you lose them, AV is pretty likely. Get him stuck in the tar baby and THEN drop the air/naval hammer when he tries to use his fleet against your ground forces. PS - I hope every single Allied sub on the face of the Planet is headed toward the battle zone. Thanks, I´ll not commit the fleet unless I get a golden opportunity or its all that is left that can avoid defeat. Yep, 80% of the sub fleet is in SOPAC. A large portion is in the yards for the radar upgrade but should be available shortly. Right now I have about 20 subs in the area including all the Dutch ones. [:)]

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 6:26:38 AM)
Japanese Planning Map ______________________________________________________________________________ Updated an old map. The allies are now in possession of Nadi. [image]local://upfiles/32406/0A84A7B0E3D64D478B6E866D12D40437.jpg[/image]

JocMeister -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 7:26:45 AM)
Updated list of Japanese Divisions ______________________________________________________________________________ Imperial Guards - Unknown but probably Burma 2nd ID - Planning for Pago Pago 4th ID - Planning for Perth 5th ID - Northern Burma 16th ID - Planning for Pago Pago 18th ID - Rangoon 21st ID - Brisbane 33rd ID - 1/3rd at Noumea. Planning unknown but probably Savaii. 38th ID - Brisbane 48th ID - Planning for Upolu. 56th ID - Last seen on Java. Planning for Perth. ------------------------ SOPAC ------------------------ As can seen by this list 8 out of 11 Japanese IDs are currently in SOPAC and/or planning for Operations in SOPAC/OZ. So Tom has placed a big significance on the area just as I have. We have 3 IDs preparing for the landings in the Samoans with a probable 4th. He has spent a lot of time prepping for those targets and I would be surprised if he didn´t come. What I don´t understand is the fact that he is going in COMPLETELY blind. [X(] I went back and checked every save for 60 days back + his KB cruise around the Samoans 3 months back. Not at one time has there been a single point of DL on any of the bases. All he know is that I have 4 RGTs at Nadi. Everything else is just a black hole. For all he knows I could have 2 IDs on each of the Samoans. That is the only thing I can think of that speaks against him coming. But SIGINT suggest he is already on his way. Allied shipping has left the combat zone while the Allied fleet is in position.

njp72 -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 9:40:20 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JocMeister quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs You spend more time thinking about losing than you could actually losing! [:-] Well, technically I AM losing. [:D] You are right though. I should be more confident then I am but its hard to keep confidence up as the allies in 42. My 2 cents for what its worth. In my current game against Wargmr, my world (Japan) started to crumble in late 42 when he started to fight back aggressively without taking large risks. To a degree a large part of the Empire's advantage in 42 is psychological. Of course the trick is to fight back hard without losing carriers which against this guy might be dangerous. :-)

aztez -> RE: Japanese land in OZ!! (8/22/2014 10:07:14 AM)
Looking forward to big naval and carrier battles which are likely to happen unless you deciede otherwise! [:D] Really don't see any other scenarios considering all the events and signit intel... Good luck.. you might need it.

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