RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (Full Version)

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leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (8/29/2014 7:55:56 PM)

Just read a bunch of Obvert's AAr vs Joc (work is slowwww today), very helpful thanks for the idea Lowpe!

I think the inner defenses will be strong. I have a mixed record on other fronts, but the end game will be extremely painful I think. maybe enough... we'll see :)



Lowpe -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (8/30/2014 4:00:52 PM)

Make sure you check out Captain Crufts Hive AAR too....not to short Obvert and Jocke's.



Aurorus -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (8/30/2014 6:34:11 PM)

"Early on I goofed with the Japanese economy and over produced Hitachi engines. At this point those engines seem useful mainly for Ida dive bombers. Since I already produced 600 engines, does that mean its almost "free" to produce Ida's? These are not great for Kamikazes but since I already have 600 engines lying around, what the heck?"

You can keep those Hitachis in the bank for 1945. Note that the Ki79a Nate comes online in 45 and you get a large number of 10-man training squadrons of these- looks good for ramping up pilot training. Also, the Ki-55 Ida comes online, which packs a heavier bomb punch as a kamikaze than the Ki-36 and would serve you better in the final desperate months.

Hang on to those Hitachis. You may just have a use for them later on.



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (8/31/2014 11:50:48 PM)

oh thanks Aurorus! good to know. Reading Obvert vs. Joc's AAR on the final months of Japan is crazy. Kamikazes really can wallop the Allied CV's



PaxMondo -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/1/2014 2:39:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Kamikazes really can wallop the Allied CV's

Yes they can ... big equalizer late game if you can field enough of them. Just remember, you send them out, they don't come back. Pilot/plane losses are huge. Be sure you have a valid target ....



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 2:01:31 AM)

Yes, agreed on the valid target. I am looking at my production numbers and I could use up the Kamikazes I have stockpiled in just a turn or two. I am at December 28th, 1943, and my opponent has taken Rangoon, I think that might be close enough to activate the Kamikazes. Not 100% sure. But if so I think i'll let it be a pleasant surprise :)...



PaxMondo -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 2:26:26 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

I think that might be close enough to activate the Kamikazes.


I've never had them activate from that direction ... too far away. The circle is more like the PI .... I don't have my notes for the exact number of hexes, but no where near Burma.



PaxMondo -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 2:27:21 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Yes, agreed on the valid target. I am looking at my production numbers and I could use up the Kamikazes I have stockpiled in just a turn or two.

Yeah, you have to stock up a LOT of airframes and pilots. You can burn through an amazing amount in a very short time ....



Chickenboy -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 3:19:05 AM)

Has to be 20 hexes from Saigon. Believe that Rangoon is too far yet.

ETA: There are other "20 hexes from" trigger points (consult the manual), Saigon is the relevant one closest to the CBI theater.



rustysi -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 3:48:24 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Has to be 20 hexes from Saigon. Believe that Rangoon is too far yet.

ETA: There are other "20 hexes from" trigger points (consult the manual), Saigon is the relevant one closest to the CBI theater.


Additionally the 20 hexes are counted by sea. Also an airbase must be present I believe. So dot bases don't count.



crsutton -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 4:15:21 AM)

I think you have a good position but the Allied losses in carriers is way too small. I count six Allied CVs down for the loss of about 2/3rds of the KB. That is not good news for the future. Depends on his surface loses but they don't seem to be too bad. If he still has a lot of CVEs and CVLs your life is going to be hard. Kamikazes will help but won't win it for you. There is a lot more what ifs. Has he lost a lot of AKA and APAs? How about LSTs? But your position is good and there are a lot of ways he can screw up.

As an Allied player, I would be feeling very good about the carrier situation. Anything up to a 1-1 carrier exchange is good news for the Allies. Your aircraft losses have been very reasonable so far.

There is a big difference when you lose the KB in 43 vs keeping it intact through 44.



Alfred -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 5:36:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Yes, agreed on the valid target. I am looking at my production numbers and I could use up the Kamikazes I have stockpiled in just a turn or two. I am at December 28th, 1943, and my opponent has taken Rangoon, I think that might be close enough to activate the Kamikazes. Not 100% sure. But if so I think i'll let it be a pleasant surprise :)...


My most recent reply to another kamikaze thread was 6 weeks ago. See my post #7 in this thread which provides the critical hyperlink.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3656976&mpage=1&key=kamikaze�

Alfred



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 1:21:57 PM)

Thanks for the link on Kami's Alfred. I've dug into the Tracker spreadsheets and revised my production to ramp up
the right airframes and engines, arnaments and vehicles, and hopefully I can get my HI up to 3 million by
mid 1944 and then endure the inevitable loss of the DEI. My opponent is very good, very thorough. But he likes
to have absolute air superiority for invasions and this last attack at Yap was a rude shock. Either right now
he's licking his wounds and trying to figure out what to do or awaiting massive reinforcements. Either way I relish
slowing him down while the bases within B-29 range of the Home Islands dig into Fort levels 6 or 9 etc.

@crsutton-- I uploaded another screenshot, showing the losses for both sides in CVE's & BB's. Though losing the KB
in late 1943 was bad, it did perform well over the war. I am guessing the estimates on enemy ship losses
are relatively accurate for BB's in this screenshot, given that his bombardment TF's these days are quite weak and usually have only 1-2 BB's
and some cruisers. This is especially the case because I cornered an Allied fleet at Broome on the north coast of
Australia earlier, and my KB just lingered outside for days while the cruisers bombarded the hapless ships damaged
at port.

Anyway, during the Japanese LBA vs. US CV task force battle at the invasion of Yap, he fielded
8 carriers (mostly light carriers) and I think I may have sunk two and damaged a full size CV (and I probably lost 200 planes over several days). My pilots claimed
a lot more but based on next day US fleet CAP levels and what not that seemed a fairly realistic guess. He
could have other carriers elsewhere, but it was not quite the "Death Star" US fleet. Nor were there many BB's.

I have sunk a lot of transports but not many AKA's and APA's. I think at this point the land based Japanese
airforce still provides a decent threat, both in reality and my opponent's mind. He seems wary of coming
close to the airbases again, which again will hopefully slow him down. So on sea I think I'm doing well, in the air maybe
a draw, and badly on land.

On land he is doing well, especially in Burma, my most neglected theater originally and now I am paying the
price. But the Japanese army is in an orderly retreat into jungle & rough hexes now, where the overwhelming
Allied air power has little effect. Hopefully I can just drag that area out through the rest of the war
without losing too much.



[image]local://upfiles/13963/B9ACA526605D4021B4D128BAC0BB60BF.jpg[/image]



Chickenboy -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 2:59:10 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I think you have a good position but the Allied losses in carriers is way too small. I count six Allied CVs down for the loss of about 2/3rds of the KB. That is not good news for the future. Depends on his surface loses but they don't seem to be too bad. If he still has a lot of CVEs and CVLs your life is going to be hard. Kamikazes will help but won't win it for you. There is a lot more what ifs. Has he lost a lot of AKA and APAs? How about LSTs? But your position is good and there are a lot of ways he can screw up.

As an Allied player, I would be feeling very good about the carrier situation. Anything up to a 1-1 carrier exchange is good news for the Allies. Your aircraft losses have been very reasonable so far.

There is a big difference when you lose the KB in 43 vs keeping it intact through 44.


Agreed.

ETA: Lee-this could manifest in your game as follows:

He has ample CV and CVE (the Allies get hordes of these babies moving forward through 1944) to support a landing at a place of his choosing. Getting ashore without attendant naval bombardment won't be as easy as it was (particularly if you have good shore defenses) with naval bombardment, but he shouldn't have a problem sailing (and escorting) a massive fleet to a place of his choosing.

If he is doing 'well on land' in terms of his unit losses and disruptions, what's to stop him from bypassing the Marianas and dropping 4 MarDivs, beaucoup support and supply on Luzon or Mindanao? Your attempts to interdict a well-escorted invasion TF without KB's 'threat in being' will be hampered.

In your game, your early CV losses hamper your naval air value. His significant BB losses make his landing in a more defended hex slightly more problematic, but are by no means a showstopper for him. BBs are comparatively less useful as the war drags on, CVs more useful. You've exchanged your move strategically valuable ships for his less valuable ships. I see this as an imbalance in the Allies favor.



Chickenboy -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 3:05:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Has to be 20 hexes from Saigon. Believe that Rangoon is too far yet.

ETA: There are other "20 hexes from" trigger points (consult the manual), Saigon is the relevant one closest to the CBI theater.


Additionally the 20 hexes are counted by sea. Also an airbase must be present I believe. So dot bases don't count.



Good reminder about counting by sea.



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 5:54:23 PM)

Ooops, I didn't mean to imply I was winning with those screenshots :). I'm not-- just that in spite of some setbacks and glaring mistakes by me, there is still hope for the Japanese empire in this game. And definitely Chickenboy, my biggest concern is a run "up the middle" with the Allies landing on unopposed hexes in the PI. Skipping the Marianas does increase the transit times greatly, as I have strong airbases on the Ponape-Truk- Marianas-Badelbob line.

I've turned Manila, Clark Field, Davao and the island of Besanga into well supplied fortresses. But as you mentioned I can't really stop a landing, and his fleet will break through the IJ air force eventually (though thankfully 75% of the KB air squadrons survived, because the Japanese carriers were damaged the first day I lost the KB, then sunk the next). Its going to take a lot more than 4 Marine divisions to conquer the PI (given my defenses), and I'm hoping his need for overwhelming force at multiple points will require long transit times and also long exposure of his fleet to what I can throw at it. That's the hope. But one of the reasons I've come to the forums for strategy on Caledonia and now on the Japanese strategy in 1944, is, well, I needed everybody's help and wisdom! :)

And as before, the outpouring of advice has been incredibly helpful and is already bearing fruit within my game, so many thanks.



Lowpe -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 6:28:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
Its going to take a lot more than 4 Marine divisions to conquer the PI (given my defenses)



Rest assured, Allies have a little bit more than 4 Marine Divisions.[:)] I think the point is that those 4 Marine division will be the point of the spear doing the landing. Can you fight him on the beaches before he takes the base?






leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 10:54:06 PM)

That's a good question Lowpe. So, right now, I have Clark Field and Manila at Fort 9 with several thousand AV, balanced combined arms forces. Davao, Bataan and one other base on Luzon are also strong. Plenty of supply. There's quite a few landing base hexes for the US marines-- and I feel loathe to rush troops to wherever he lands (the Japanese lost tons of troops in vain trying to reinforce Leyte historically for example).

This issue brings up another tough question for Japanese strategy in 1944-- you can't really stop an Allied landing (since I don't have the KB, and though the air force is strong it will eventually be overwhelmed), so what's the best way to handle an Allied invasion? Right now, in my mind at least,
I'm better off bleeding him dry fighting it out with terrain and fortification advantages at Manila and elsewhere, rather than meeting him out in the open. But is that the best way?



crsutton -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/3/2014 11:52:37 PM)

If you are playing stock without stacking limits it is going to be hard. It is not your play so far which has been good it is just that it gets very hard to stop the Allied juggernaut in 44/45. This is especially true if he has ample carriers-and he does. But you have done fine so far. I play the Allies but really respect competent Japanese play because it is harder to pull off.



PaxMondo -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/4/2014 2:54:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
Right now, in my mind at least,
I'm better off bleeding him dry fighting it out with terrain and fortification advantages at Manila and elsewhere, rather than meeting him out in the open. But is that the best way?

review obverts last AAR (pretty sure it was his) regarding the PI; once the allies are ashore and a base established they are unstoppable. Allied LCU firepower is so vastly superior to the IJ, forts will not cause a significant hindrance.

Review PzB's AAR and GJ/MrKane and QBall/GJ. Stopping the allies from getting established and evicting them is what works. They can get ashore anywhere. You've got to counter whatever they land; that requires really good insight to what will land* and then really good timing to get your forces in play in time. PzB, MrKane, and GJ all did it repeatedly in their respective AAR's. A lot of brilliant play in them.

We've precious few examples where high forts have been even been able to slow the allied juggernaut, and then only when the IJ can keep air superiority in the area.



Alfred -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/4/2014 10:09:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
Right now, in my mind at least,
I'm better off bleeding him dry fighting it out with terrain and fortification advantages at Manila and elsewhere, rather than meeting him out in the open. But is that the best way?

review obverts last AAR (pretty sure it was his) regarding the PI; once the allies are ashore and a base established they are unstoppable. Allied LCU firepower is so vastly superior to the IJ, forts will not cause a significant hindrance.

Review PzB's AAR and GJ/MrKane and QBall/GJ. Stopping the allies from getting established and evicting them is what works. They can get ashore anywhere. You've got to counter whatever they land; that requires really good insight to what will land* and then really good timing to get your forces in play in time. PzB, MrKane, and GJ all did it repeatedly in their respective AAR's. A lot of brilliant play in them.

We've precious few examples where high forts have been even been able to slow the allied juggernaut, and then only when the IJ can keep air superiority in the area.


Another one to add is Cribtop's AAR. The discussions in it were focused on an earlier period but the principles still remain valid for the late war if Japan still retains the assets to implement the discussion points.

Alfred



leehunt27@bloomberg.net -> RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) (9/4/2014 7:24:14 PM)

thanks, more homework lol! Just gotta wait for work to get slow again so I can read them during the day :)



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