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JDM -> RE: Scots Are they free (9/16/2014 4:19:52 AM)
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Firstly I want to make it clear that I am a Scot and every bit as patriotic as the next man.
However, I am deeply concerned that by voting "Yes" Scotland Is sleepwalking into an unredeemable catastrophe. The prospect of splitting our Nation in two has hugely detrimental and financial consequences, for both a separate Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
So I hope that all of my friends and family North of the Border will take a few moments to read this in the spirit that it is intended and please feel free to pass this to any other current residents of Scotland who might be interested in my thoughts.
Despite how the "yes" campaign argues it, by leaving the UK, Scotland will have to apply for membership of the EU, there will be no automatic entry, and nations like Spain with their own separatist issues may well refuse to accept Scotland. This would also require Scotland to sign up to the Euro and grant Brussels jurisdiction over many issues, including but not limited to the law, immigration and border controls.
Even if Scotland wants to hold onto the Pound, The Bank of England has made it perfectly clear that just to begin discussions, supposing this was even on the table which it currently is not, a Scottish Central Bank would be required to hold reserves in excess of an independent Scotland's entire GDP. The issue of currency and banking is the bleakest or perhaps the most disingenuous piece of the independence argument.
Further the threat of withholding its share of the National Debt, if demands are not met, is frankly ludicrous and would wreck Scotland's reputation and financial standing Worldwide. This should not be underestimated, as it would destroy an independent Scotland's credit ratings and ability to borrow, as the rest of the banking world not disregard these liabilities.
In purely practical terms to unravel and recreate the institutional ties that currently bind the UK, for example the NHS or the BBC, amongst many others would be far more complicated than anyone in the "yes" campaign seems yet to have acknowledged. In addition it will be necessary to renegotiate literally thousands of international treaties and agreements covering everything from the UN, with its myriad of Departments and specialist areas. Treaties, like for example, governing Aviation, Shipping, Border Controls and a whole plethora of other other Treaties and Agreements. These would likely take years of renegotiations and certainly not the 18 months which the "Yes" campaigners would have us believe. In the meantime, would for example, airlines be willing or even able to fly through Scottish airspace.
Where will the thousands of experienced civil servants come from to carry out all of this? Who will train them? What will all this cost? The economy of scale will be lost and all of these services and departments will require to be duplicated and most importantly an Independent Scotland with a population of around one twelfth of the UK will have running costs at the same or near the same level that the combined UK now has. The economies of scale will be lost. Further the additional costs in setting up this new bureaucracy are either incalculable, or have been concealed from us. The "White Paper" lacks any detail on how any of this would be achieved.
A further and similar issue is the location, creation and staffing of Embassies in over 190 countries around the world. This would be a complete duplication of costs and services already fully funded in a combined UK and again the entire costs would require to be funded from the new and much smaller Scottish exchequer. Mirror all of this in Education, Health Services, Welfare, Pensions, Borders & Immigration, Public Spending & Investment, etc, etc, all to be wholly funded by an independent Scotland, one twelfth the size of the combined UK. Will our citizens expect or accept lower standards, of course not, they will demand at least as good as we now have, but then we are told don't worry, we have oil, so it's all sorted.
How will a Scottish, Army, Navy and Airforce be created and funded? How will the Ships, Aircraft and equipment be funded? Where will the money come from to pay for this? How will alliances be formed and who with, certainly not NATO, as the "Yes" campaign has already declared its intentions in respect of a nuclear deterrent, so NATO will not be an option. Also in the current state of international tensions, what is the plan for security and intelligence services? What has Scotland got to trade in security dealings with other nations and how will these very specialist services be created? Again the initial setup costs in establishing all of this are either incalculable or have been concealed from us or simply not considered. How long will it take to establish all of this? In the mean time, in an increasingly dangerous world, Scotland will be left exposed
The Plethero of Banking and commercial interests now urging caution are not some Whitehall conspiracy, just like me and about half of the current residents of Scotland they can see the difficulties in all of this, their warnings are heart felt and genuine.
Taxation at present levels cannot possibly hope to fund all of this, so where and how will a country with no independent currency borrow the money to manage these many issues. The recent failure of the Euro and the position of countries such as Greece and Spain are not at all dissimilar to the position that Scotland could easily be faced with. Their problems are a fair indicator of the likely outcome with ancillary problems, like unemployment levels in excess of 25% and the failure of failed banks to pay out.
So what is the solution, vote with your head not patriotic fervour, you will still be a Scot and despite a NO vote, without doubt there will be significant changes to the existing governance of Scotland, that is now beyond doubt.
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