RE: Groundhog Day! (Full Version)

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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 6:55:02 PM)

A brigade and a division jump out of the woods in Australia and deal 3-1 odds to my armor but get over 80 squads disrupted.

My entire army that was supposed to take Portland will now converge on this spot. If we can get back together we can retreat in order. Australia is not a ruse, NJP has proven that.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 7:00:24 PM)

August 29, 1942

An amphibious assault goes in on Baker Island...

Wait, wut?? Is that an Allied invasion?? Yup Yup!!



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 7:03:32 PM)

SEXY!!!



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 7:07:33 PM)

Now, this is a noob move by NJP. He has the Kanno regiment amphibiously assault Aparri. You do not unload crack troops onto an unprotected beach without having some throw away force take said beach first to prevent casualties to your superior units...

It does however signal the beginning of the end for Manila.

Meanwhile, near Tabituea, the placement of his sub indicates that he may know my intentions.


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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 7:17:14 PM)

The KB has not diverted and is wasting valuable navy pilots on dirt bombing. This makes me believe he is balls deep in Australia going for VP or nothing. Better hope she doesnt have VD ;p



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 7:23:09 PM)

Bandoeng continues to hold and extract a cost on the Japanese forces.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 7:25:22 PM)

The unit at Baker succumbs to the Allied assault.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/23/2015 7:28:16 PM)

An allied assault on Portland goes badly. Given the troops that just popped up nearby the plan is to consolidate on that spot and attack them there if possible. If not then a fighting retreat is in order.

I really screwed up at Portland. If I had given my troops proper movement orders I would have the base right now and have given NJP other problems. But it is what it is and now I have to adapt. Plan is to move back and reinforce Melbourne for the apparent siege to come.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 5:49:41 PM)

End of July 1942

Here is the score at the end of July 1942



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 5:56:43 PM)

As you can see, very few warships have been sunk on either side. The Japanese BB is not likely sunk although the 2 Japanese CL's I tagged recently are completely believable.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 6:00:46 PM)

Aircraft Losses

Again, aircraft losses have been light although recently the conflicts have heated up. NJP is sweeping in India and has a robust defense up in southern Australia. I have been taking unacceptable 4EB losses there but it is necessary right now.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 6:11:49 PM)

Australia - End of July 1942

Australia has heated up. NJP used over 900 AV of troops to take out Tasmania. He has a division and a named regiment just east of Portland.

I sent an attack to portland but screwed it up and 1/2 of it went northwest. Due to that and his tenacity with the KB and mini-KB he has held off the attack on Portland and dealt out some minor damage to my troops. Given their position and the recent finishing off of Tasmania my best option is to converge upon his units and attempt to harm them while preparing to get back to Melbourne.

I have units about to take the town of Mildura. I will continue that attack just to add another diversion to whatever it is that he is doing.

Strategically this is a dog to defend. It triples his line of defense from last game and can only be used if he thinks he is going to get an AV. Otherwise there is no way to cover this plus the DEI plus the Pacific (see below) plus the home islands.

If he moves the tasmania troops onto the island we have about 1-1 odds if my troops get back to Melbourne. That is with my troops being under heavy urban terrain with great forts. I think he is serious but I think he is foolish to try to assault Australia. It isnt a ruse as I tried to prove by attacking Portland. There is no way he would keep the KB there once he saw me in the Pacific.



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Sangeli -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 6:31:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
If he moves the tasmania troops onto the island we have about 1-1 odds if my troops get back to Melbourne. That is with my troops being under heavy urban terrain with great forts. I think he is serious but I think he is foolish to try to assault Australia. It isnt a ruse as I tried to prove by attacking Portland. There is no way he would keep the KB there once he saw me in the Pacific.

The Japanese could land in Geelong and then cut off Melbourne from Sydney. I would certainly be concerned about that. Lot's of time can make up for lack of troops. Sure you have a very good defensive position today but the Japanese can whittle down your fort with deliberate followed by extended resting periods as to minimize destroyed squads. As the forts fall those cruiser bombardments will start to have greater effect. And he doesn't need the KB for any of this.

The only thing that will save your troops in Australia is relieving the siege or creating a crisis somewhere else in the empire that requires a pullback from Australia. Luckily the timing for this is up in the air; your guys in Australia could last a very long time before things get really critical. So to me that means planning campaign to retake Lord Howe island or Tasmania to relieve the siege and/or a big landing in a place like Sumatra to threaten oil. Given your aggressive style I'd say that landing in Sumatra sometime in late 42 would be a particular attractive option.



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 7:04:37 PM)

NJP had a naval cordon and/or picket to the east of Baker Island. It ran into those dive bombers at starbuck island but I had slipped behind them up north.

Once Canton had been defended and before I knew where the KB/Mini-KB were I was not going to challenge him in strength in 1942.

Now that his position was revealed I decided to hit hard and deep and gain good footing for later in the war.

Also, he either decides to defend Australia or defend the Marshalls. There is no way the KB can do both and to separate the Mini-KB and have it work on one is asking for trouble. That is why his position is strategically so implausible. He cannot hold southern Australia, the Perth/Melbourne area, the whole east coast of Australia, the DEI, etc.. Not even the best player can be in all locations at once.





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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 7:09:23 PM)

The further and more important target of the expedition was Tarawa. My opponent has the cheek to go on vacation and the turns have slowed down. He also appears a bit concerned about this move.

I have not received the combat report or the report for the 31st of July yet but should be unloading at Tabituea with a cruiser force at Tarawa waiting to receive troops on the following day.

They are covered by 4CV's and a couple cruiser groups. Further support is on the way to Tabituea directly. I plan on taking Tarawa and anything reasonably unprotected nearby and seriously threaten NJP's strategic position in the game.

If he wants to stay in Australia I will strangle him north of there. The siege of Australia can work both ways!!



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 7:19:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
If he moves the tasmania troops onto the island we have about 1-1 odds if my troops get back to Melbourne. That is with my troops being under heavy urban terrain with great forts. I think he is serious but I think he is foolish to try to assault Australia. It isnt a ruse as I tried to prove by attacking Portland. There is no way he would keep the KB there once he saw me in the Pacific.

The Japanese could land in Geelong and then cut off Melbourne from Sydney. I would certainly be concerned about that. Lot's of time can make up for lack of troops. Sure you have a very good defensive position today but the Japanese can whittle down your fort with deliberate followed by extended resting periods as to minimize destroyed squads. As the forts fall those cruiser bombardments will start to have greater effect. And he doesn't need the KB for any of this.

The only thing that will save your troops in Australia is relieving the siege or creating a crisis somewhere else in the empire that requires a pullback from Australia. Luckily the timing for this is up in the air; your guys in Australia could last a very long time before things get really critical. So to me that means planning campaign to retake Lord Howe island or Tasmania to relieve the siege and/or a big landing in a place like Sumatra to threaten oil. Given your aggressive style I'd say that landing in Sumatra sometime in late 42 would be a particular attractive option.



I am digging deep in the pacific. If he doesnt defend Australia with the KB and it strays too far I can simply have a carrier escorted group go from New Zealand to Sydney which is under good LBA cover. He cant stop it with naval forces alone.

To the west of Australia he has to keep forces to maintain the embargo there or he could have traffic coming in from CapeTown.

He has to have most of his land army in Australia to even hope to win and he has to transport the majority of his supplies and all of his fuel.

What you see as weakness I only see as strength.

He is in a rough position that just taking the DEI and having the KB/Mini-KB hanging back and waiting to repel an invasion would have never put him in.

And as Alfred will tell you, continental warfare is manuever warfare... My favorite type. Go look what I did to him in China along the coast in the last game. Do you really think he wants to give me opportunites from Brisbane to Cooktown and north to cut his troops off? The sword swings both ways. He has to keep his own troops in supply.

By trying to take southeastern Australia he is chaining himself to it. I am leveraging that in the pacific. If he chooses to defend the pacific he well ends up losing Australia. And considering the effort he has put into it, I do not think that would be his first choice.

You keep acting like I am going to be the defender here... LOL!!!! ONWARDS AND FORWARDS CRIED THE FOOL!!

Remind me how stupid I was when I am crying about all this later ;]



Sangeli -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 7:47:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
I am digging deep in the pacific. If he doesnt defend Australia with the KB and it strays too far I can simply have a carrier escorted group go from New Zealand to Sydney which is under good LBA cover. He cant stop it with naval forces alone.

Certainly that is possible but such an endeavor is risky with Noumea in Japanese hands. You could end up getting ambushed by the superior KB forces while you withdraw.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
To the west of Australia he has to keep forces to maintain the embargo there or he could have traffic coming in from CapeTown.

I disagree with this. The Japanese hold Port Augusta which controls the railraod to western OZ. Suppose you land with a giant army in Perth. Then what? You can march with an army with ungodly amounts of AA (major rail will keep you with tons of supply) but there are no real roads so its a very slow march that could take many months. Should the Japanese be successful in taking the rest of OZ at this time during the march then those units will be in some real trouble as they could be cut off with a landing in western OZ.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
And as Alfred will tell you, continental warfare is manuever warfare... My favorite type. Go look what I did to him in China along the coast in the last game. Do you really think he wants to give me opportunites from Brisbane to Cooktown and north to cut his troops off? The sword swings both ways. He has to keep his own troops in supply.

Continental warfare is my favorite type of warfare as well; don't get me wrong. But right now this is asymmetric warfare with the Japanese in control of the sea.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
By trying to take southeastern Australia he is chaining himself to it. I am leveraging that in the pacific. If he chooses to defend the pacific he well ends up losing Australia. And considering the effort he has put into it, I do not think that would be his first choice.

I agree with you here. The Japanese are in very bad shape in the CentPac. I have no doubts you will be able to push forward in the Gilberts towards the Marshalls. My concern is more that a campaign in the Marshalls isn't as decisive as say Sumatra. Would you trade Australia for the Marshalls? I would not. But I would trade Australia to put myself within 4E range of Palembang.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
You keep acting like I am going to be the defender here... LOL!!!! ONWARDS AND FORWARDS CRIED THE FOOL!!

Remind me how stupid I was when I am crying about all this later ;]

LOL perhaps I have been burned too many times thinking that when mid 42 comes around that the Japanese don't have the ability to make major attacks against determined defenders. But then the next thing you know 8 IJA divisions land under KB cover with 100 prep, heavy BB bombardment, and the defenders are toast. Of course this is all dependent on the Japanese doubling down in Australia which is no guarantee. Also, even if the Japanese do reinforce Australia heavily, I'd say you have at least 3 months before things get really serious for you. So all I'm saying is think about some plans should the Japanese go this rout but you don't have to put anything in motion until it does.



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 8:04:05 PM)

If he takes Australia he wins the war by auto victory. He would gain over 5000VP's for Melbourne and Sydney alone.

I do not see Australia as a siege situation.

I do not think that NJP is weak and/or cannot make significant attacks against me at this point. The issue is that as the days slip by the opportunity costs of those attacks increases and the size necessarily decreases.

Can he win? Certainly!! Will he win? Lets find out! If he misses the bar though, I am going to make him pay heavy for Australia.



Sangeli -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 8:10:11 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
If he takes Australia he wins the war by auto victory. He would gain over 5000VP's for Melbourne and Sydney alone.

I'm not sure if this is true. To counter a 5000 VP move all you need to do is gain 1250 VPs. And every time you trade VPs in a battle it puts Japan further and further from autovictory. Certainly I can imagine a way you could lose Australia and Japan doesn't get to the 4 to 1 VP ratio on Jan 1 1943.



poodlebrain -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 8:35:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I sent an attack to portland but screwed it up and 1/2 of it went northwest. Due to that and his tenacity with the KB and mini-KB he has held off the attack on Portland and dealt out some minor damage to my troops. Given their position and the recent finishing off of Tasmania my best option is to converge upon his units and attempt to harm them while preparing to get back to Melbourne.

Ouch! While screwing up and missing the opportunity to liberate Portland hurts, you can still make things work from a VP perspective. He has to come up with 4 VPs for every VP loss you can cause during a fighting withdrawal.

Is there a way you can make the Japanese pay for keeping the KB on station and flying numerous ground attack missions? Can you bait him to a location where he will use the KBs remaining sorties on low value targets, and then pounce with your carriers and LBA with reduced risk of counter-strike by the KB? A TF of xAKs headed for Sydney might lure the KB into position where you can take a shot at the KB.



BBfanboy -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 8:55:51 PM)

I'm pretty sure he would have a couple of AKEs or AEs headed for Hobart by now to replenish KB's sorties. Only accumulated damage will really require taking KB out of the area for a while. Upgrades can be postponed when air opposition is practically nil.



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 9:07:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

I sent an attack to portland but screwed it up and 1/2 of it went northwest. Due to that and his tenacity with the KB and mini-KB he has held off the attack on Portland and dealt out some minor damage to my troops. Given their position and the recent finishing off of Tasmania my best option is to converge upon his units and attempt to harm them while preparing to get back to Melbourne.

Ouch! While screwing up and missing the opportunity to liberate Portland hurts, you can still make things work from a VP perspective. He has to come up with 4 VPs for every VP loss you can cause during a fighting withdrawal.

Is there a way you can make the Japanese pay for keeping the KB on station and flying numerous ground attack missions? Can you bait him to a location where he will use the KBs remaining sorties on low value targets, and then pounce with your carriers and LBA with reduced risk of counter-strike by the KB? A TF of xAKs headed for Sydney might lure the KB into position where you can take a shot at the KB.



NJP was extremely conservative with the KB planes and pilots last game and almost never used them on ground attacks until I got close to the home islands. Right now he is acting Atypically. I am about to take Tarawa in July of 1942. I would say that having the KB in SW australia is already hurting his strategic game.

Hoping for him to screw up enough to retaliate against the KB in mid 1942 is a long shot I am not really willing to consider or waste resources on. Better to focus on his weaknesses right now than try to attack his strength.



Encircled -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 9:07:43 PM)

Not sure that an attack in the Marshalls or Gilberts is going to bother him at this stage.

If you are confident that you can hold in Oz, then yeah, but it doesn't affect him in the slightest.

Threatening his oil would be the way to go here I think.



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 9:13:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Not sure that an attack in the Marshalls or Gilberts is going to bother him at this stage.

If you are confident that you can hold in Oz, then yeah, but it doesn't affect him in the slightest.

Threatening his oil would be the way to go here I think.


I made a plan in the beginning of the game. I dont care about his oil. I care about destroying his ability to transport it to his ships and HI.

Tarawa is just a stepping stone to Guam and the west coast of the phillipines which he has not even conquered yet.

Tabituea gives me range on Rabaul, Ponape, Truk... I am within 4EB range of many of the islands in the pacific.

So, you are correct. It may not bother him at this stage but it might kill him later.



BBfanboy -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 10:04:19 PM)

Interesting strategy - looking forward to seeing it played out by the master of the shotgun invasions. [:)]



Encircled -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 10:27:37 PM)

Looking forward to seeing it as well, but I play the Japanese, and a threat to the oil cannot be ignored.

Its about the only thing that you cannot ignore in '42.



Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 11:56:19 PM)

Ships clash in the night in small battles around the pacific



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/24/2015 11:59:35 PM)

Despite being in several engagements prior, one of NJP's DD's gets in a few hits on a transport fleet.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/25/2015 12:02:18 AM)

NJP has the newer Zero's at Canton Island and uses them to sweep my hastily arrived fighter squadron to pieces not at a cost of his own.



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Mike McCreery -> RE: Groundhog Day! (4/25/2015 12:04:46 AM)

The KB and friends are still pounding the area east of Portland. I love the AA of DBB!!!



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