jmax -> RE: Naval and Defense News (12/12/2016 1:11:00 PM)
|
Well the good news is that nobody wants to fight over Taiwan, or if one does break out, all sides will have an interest in keeping it contained. Mainland China doesn't want to alienate the islanders by destroying their productive infrastructure, but if they have to bomb Taiwan, they will try to keep it an "internal affair" and limit collateral damage because they don't want to reunify the hostile populace of a smoking ruin. Certainly nobody wants to see nuclear weapons used - anyway China's nuclear triad isn't a robust enough deterrent for it to enjoy strategic escalation dominance that way, though they'd enjoy a significant home team advantage in conventional conflict and political will to fight. If the US were to legitimize Taiwan, some form of military coercion is a distinct possibility. Trump's statements alone won't lead to war, but it is dangerous and destabilizing talk to be sure. If you want to know what I think a realistic conflict scenario might look like, you can check out 'Breaking the Chain, 2020' in Mods & Scenarios forum! =P
|
|
|
|