RE: T1 south (Full Version)

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Callistrid -> RE: T1 south (7/1/2015 4:57:50 PM)

I'm affraid Mktours will bring us an interesting opening, and IF sapper will retreat (why not, don't need to fight, because several industrial area will loose without having chance to transport them), the germans will loose the was on 41 winter.

Sorry Mktours, but the odds, even if you destroy the soviet starting forces, don't favor you.




MattFL -> RE: T1 south (7/1/2015 5:10:43 PM)

So now that we've discussed it, how about posting T2.... VERY curious to see how the drive for VL goes. As this is a PBEM game, would be interested to see the SHC setup prior to your turn 2 start and then your end turn. Curious to see Saper's T1 response.





mktours -> RE: T1 south (7/2/2015 10:13:27 AM)

Thanks very much for all the comments! It is nice to see what people thinks about this game.
The game is still ongoing, I have a job to do in daytime and also need to share some leisure time with my family, so I might not be able to attend to the AAR very often.
Indeed, I am having my turn to do at this moment, so I will keep today's update brief.




mktours -> T1 soviet reaction (7/2/2015 10:14:49 AM)

T1 soviet reaction
north

[image]local://upfiles/44785/01C8E28DC40A48BE8A4D0706DCD64F43.jpg[/image]




mktours -> RE: T1 soviet reaction (7/2/2015 10:15:58 AM)

center



[image]local://upfiles/44785/9A868F2D717F46D2A642A9CE856ECFE9.jpg[/image]




mktours -> RE: T1 soviet reaction (7/2/2015 10:20:57 AM)

south1
Edit: This picture miss some unit. I reloaded the original file to do haste air recon to show reader the picture, but there are more units on the map didn't show in this picture. Sorry for that, but I see not reason to reload the picture as it is not important. Reader should keep in mind that there are more road block on the road, and a 4 CV motorize div in Kiev city.
[image]local://upfiles/44785/7783F63B161142D7A666A3599954D940.jpg[/image]




mktours -> RE: T1 soviet reaction (7/2/2015 10:22:05 AM)

south2



[image]local://upfiles/44785/6DEC54CFA4F3413698BC859E401193D7.jpg[/image]




Northern Star -> RE: T1 soviet reaction (7/2/2015 8:59:30 PM)

I still have some doubts about the power of this opening... in your 1st turn screenshot of southern front I see 8 routed units in Pripyat marshes and 4 east of your panzers... now in the screenshot of Saper's turn 1 I see only one routed unit, all the others are gone away... plus at least 5 of them were tank or motorized divisions... I can't understand how can this opening be more powerful than the standard Lvov pocket.




mktours -> RE: T1 soviet reaction (7/3/2015 10:09:02 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Northern Star

I still have some doubts about the power of this opening... in your 1st turn screenshot of southern front I see 8 routed units in Pripyat marshes and 4 east of your panzers... now in the screenshot of Saper's turn 1 I see only one routed unit, all the others are gone away... plus at least 5 of them were tank or motorized divisions... I can't understand how can this opening be more powerful than the standard Lvov pocket.


It is impossible to pocket all the troops, some should be allowed to escape.




mktours -> RE: T1 soviet reaction (7/3/2015 10:12:23 AM)

In my AAR of the game against Marquo, I gave two very important suggestion about how to defend this opening:
(1) Soviet must garrison Luki city;
(2) Soviet must guard the Dnepr river properly.
Saper ignore both of them in his T1 deployment.




mktours -> RE: T1 soviet reaction (7/3/2015 10:13:07 AM)

T2 north

After I have suggested Soviet garrison the LUKI city in my old AAR, I didn't expect Saper gift it to me, but he did.
[image]local://upfiles/44785/6D8E72DA56F743A1A7A0728C1B277BEC.jpg[/image]




mktours -> T2 center (7/3/2015 10:15:36 AM)

T2 center



[image]local://upfiles/44785/A92C03B284C84479BB8AE375E97E96B3.jpg[/image]




mktours -> T2 south (7/3/2015 10:17:13 AM)

T2 south
Kiev was pocketed tightly.
[image]local://upfiles/44785/26C5878EF49147DA9E21FBFC6411E800.jpg[/image]




mktours -> kiev (7/3/2015 10:20:06 AM)

Kiev pocket

[image]local://upfiles/44785/38625F8BFBA4453483BDCDC6AD430BAA.jpg[/image]




mktours -> RE: Mktours(Ger)VsSaper222(sov)---Saper is welcome (7/3/2015 10:35:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mattp



quote:

Saper set soviet transport level at 50%. It turns out that it might be too harsh for soviet side, but we didn’t know that before we started the game.


I just noticed this rule. To me, this is way too harsh and given how fast you're going to be pressing east in the Industrial south he'll never get enough industry out. As SHC I would give up +1, long before I would give up rail capacity. Further, it's going to make an already difficult SHC T1 and T2 that much more difficult.



With all the house rules and game settings, I myself would be more than willing to set transport level at 50% and play the soviet side.




Callistrid -> RE: kiev (7/3/2015 10:43:51 AM)

Sapper made several mistakes during T01,

The only way to beat you, is to fall back to Rzev-Bryansk-Kharkov and D-town line, and defend. The germans can't encircle troops before T8, because their movement point will be extremely low, and even air supply can't help them. Around T08, the soviet forces will have 5 million men, and rested + refitted troops, plus level 2-3 fortifications. Enough to stand and fight. Leningrad is not an issue, let, the german capture the city, if some of his armors will drive there.
Plus disband 50 % of air bases, because the soviet airpower doesn't really count, and the german air forces are far from the supply lines.

Around T10, on south the soviet must fall back to Rostov-Voronezh-Tula line, move back from the german supply lines, and play that joke again. Around T15, the 6 million soviet troops will be still enough to beat the german troops, but this time their power could be enough starting massive counterattack, and farming more guard units. All cavalry units must be on reserve, so they can easily get guard status, what will be devastating during blizzard.

With +1 bonus stand and fight is a mad idea before september, but saving the army, and after the end of august, farming guard units, that is real nasty :)

During blizzard, with +1 guard units... the german can't resist!




timmyab -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 11:08:37 AM)

I agree that Luki should be garrisoned, even a sec regiment might do the job. Poor defense to allow you to cross the Dnyper at Kiev. Same thing really, must get something behind the river North and South of Kiev.




mktours -> RE: kiev (7/3/2015 11:19:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Sapper made several mistakes during T01,

The only way to beat you, is to fall back to Rzev-Bryansk-Kharkov and D-town line, and defend. The germans can't encircle troops before T8, because their movement point will be extremely low, and even air supply can't help them. Around T08, the soviet forces will have 5 million men, and rested + refitted troops, plus level 2-3 fortifications. Enough to stand and fight. Leningrad is not an issue, let, the german capture the city, if some of his armors will drive there.
Plus disband 50 % of air bases, because the soviet airpower doesn't really count, and the german air forces are far from the supply lines.

Around T10, on south the soviet must fall back to Rostov-Voronezh-Tula line, move back from the german supply lines, and play that joke again. Around T15, the 6 million soviet troops will be still enough to beat the german troops, but this time their power could be enough starting massive counterattack, and farming more guard units. All cavalry units must be on reserve, so they can easily get guard status, what will be devastating during blizzard.

With +1 bonus stand and fight is a mad idea before september, but saving the army, and after the end of august, farming guard units, that is real nasty :)

During blizzard, with +1 guard units... the german can't resist!

That is why the transport level needs to be tone down, 50% might be too harsh, but currently transport capability is too high for the soviet side, they could save full industry if Germany play poorly, and even if Germany play well, they could save enough.
There is a game style to run away as soviet, I am not sure if it would work, when I play soviet side, I stand and fight.




mktours -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 11:25:25 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

I agree that Luki should be garrisoned, even a sec regiment might do the job. Poor defense to allow you to cross the Dnyper at Kiev. Same thing really, must get something behind the river North and South of Kiev.

Saper is a very good player, but he play his turns too quickly. When he plays too quickly, he is likely to make careless mistakes. Given he played his turn so quickly, most of the time his decision is good, so he have a quick mind and a very determine mind, which qualify as a very good tank army commander, which requires making quick decision on the battle field, but he needs a careful general staff to help him to do the check.
He is a very experienced and confident player, but he forget that my opening is different from others, and it is advancing very fast.
When I did the AAR of the game against Marquo, there are many people doubt that I could get to LUKI, and pocket Kiev.
This opening is even stronger than the old one.




timmyab -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 11:35:53 AM)

Yes I know he's a good player. It shouldn't really make much difference who you're playing, you should guard against a Luki thrust and prevent any chance of a Dnieper crossing on turn two. To allow either is nothing short of careless. Maybe he underestimated you.




Callistrid -> RE: kiev (7/3/2015 11:40:18 AM)

Yep, after 1.08.05. the soviet transport capacity must set to 50-60 %, because the supply level rules will really hit the german. I believe that will be a common house rule, like the airbase attack.

When I play with the soviet side, I alway force a plan about 41,42 and 43 goals.
First I want to determine the soviet army numbers. I have 60-70k transport capacity (with 50 % transport levels), so 20 % will be spend for troops rail, the rest spend for evacuation. The 41 goal is to maintain 7 million soviet troops, and will be enough to evacuate Kharkov, Moscow, Tula, and Rostov, and don't really care about Kiev, D-town, and other western region. Defending them are risky, and you threat your army, and those industrial aras, what could be evacuated safely.

The industry of Leningrad could be delicious decoy, hoping the german will send 4-6 armor there, so never care about that region.
Moscow must be evacuated early, force the german drive south, try to capture Tula and Bryansk. Soviet must play with evacuation, to separate the german panzer spearhead into 3 location. The concentrated german armors are extremely dangerous, and they can encircle entire fronts, what must be avoid.

My last game against sapper, I was beatened, when the germans concetrate all his panzer forces on south, and destroy 2 full soviet front.




mktours -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 11:43:35 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

Yes I know he's a good player. It shouldn't really make much difference who you're playing, you should guard against a Luki thrust and prevent any chance of a Dnieper crossing on turn two. To allow either is nothing short of careless. Maybe he underestimated you.


I think he played too many games and have a routine T1 deployment, so he just moved his troops as usual. Plus he is underestimating the Germany speed.




Callistrid -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 11:47:03 AM)

Several player has no experience how to play with 50 % transport levels. It's not easy, because in 41 the evacuation plan must be rethinked, and in 42 the reinforcement plan to.

In 41 the soviet must sacrefice several industrial location, but he can decide what. The best way is to know how many, and what type of troops want to be supplied during the war.




mktours -> RE: kiev (7/3/2015 12:10:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Yep, after 1.08.05. the soviet transport capacity must set to 50-60 %, because the supply level rules will really hit the german. I believe that will be a common house rule, like the airbase attack.

When I play with the soviet side, I alway force a plan about 41,42 and 43 goals.
First I want to determine the soviet army numbers. I have 60-70k transport capacity (with 50 % transport levels), so 20 % will be spend for troops rail, the rest spend for evacuation. The 41 goal is to maintain 7 million soviet troops, and will be enough to evacuate Kharkov, Moscow, Tula, and Rostov, and don't really care about Kiev, D-town, and other western region. Defending them are risky, and you threat your army, and those industrial aras, what could be evacuated safely.

The industry of Leningrad could be delicious decoy, hoping the german will send 4-6 armor there, so never care about that region.
Moscow must be evacuated early, force the german drive south, try to capture Tula and Bryansk. Soviet must play with evacuation, to separate the german panzer spearhead into 3 location. The concentrated german armors are extremely dangerous, and they can encircle entire fronts, what must be avoid.

My last game against sapper, I was beatened, when the germans concetrate all his panzer forces on south, and destroy 2 full soviet front.

You made good comments here. I think most of the time people want to keep everything, but indeed soviet have more to give up.




mktours -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 12:11:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Several player has no experience how to play with 50 % transport levels. It's not easy, because in 41 the evacuation plan must be rethinked, and in 42 the reinforcement plan to.

In 41 the soviet must sacrefice several industrial location, but he can decide what. The best way is to know how many, and what type of troops want to be supplied during the war.

I agree.




MattFL -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 1:41:44 PM)

Personally I was unimpressed with Saper's Turn 1 moves and could easily see what was going to happen on Turn 2 based on the previous AAR (which apparently he hasn't read). Perhaps some of it is caused by the lack of transport capacity which is very severe at 50% on Turn 1 and Turn 2 for SHC, so I will temper my comment with the thought that perhaps he just didn't have enough capacity to do what he wanted to do. In the south however, I would have pulled everything he has sitting in Ukraine west of the Dnepr in that loose checker board and instead defended the Dnepr around Kiev and allowed the GHC a free path to the SE. But again, this requires rail capacity. Further, defending Kiev proper without defending the Dnepr north and south of it is just giving away free units. He should know this.

Of course, it's only Turn 2 and now the real game begins. The loss of VL in the north on T2 is bad, but it's not the end of the world. The south is a bigger problem right now. But again, I just don't think the SHC has enough rail capacity to stabilize the situation. Forget about factory evacuation, the limited rail capacity is most damaging in that you just can't move the troops you need to move in the early turns. It's hard enough on T1 and T2 to move everything that needs to be moved to where it needs to be moved at 100% capacity. At 50% it's simply not possible.







MattFL -> RE: kiev (7/3/2015 1:48:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mktours

That is why the transport level needs to be tone down, 50% might be too harsh, but currently transport capability is too high for the soviet side, they could save full industry if Germany play poorly, and even if Germany play well, they could save enough.
There is a game style to run away as soviet, I am not sure if it would work, when I play soviet side, I stand and fight.


I disagree. SHC should be able to get enough industry away against very good German play. After all, they were able to do it historically so should be able to in the game. Further, you have to assume good German play. If the Germans play poorly they have far more problems than industry evacuation. So it shouldn't be such that good German play wipes out industry...

As SHC, I too am a fighter, not a runner. But you must choose carefully where to fight and fight on the most advantageous terms...





Callistrid -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 1:50:57 PM)

On South the soviet has enough troops to build a front line around the Dnyepr. Most of the units can move by foot into their defending position.

The only critical situation is around Pskov, and that was Sappers huge mistake. The build the standard defending line, hoping wou will move there. Transporting those troops are costly, and in the current situation was bald move, because need to transport them into better position. So he will spend 2x the transport cost for thoe units.




MattFL -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 2:00:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

On South the soviet has enough troops to build a front line around the Dnyepr. Most of the units can move by foot into their defending position.

The only critical situation is around Pskov, and that was Sappers huge mistake. The build the standard defending line, hoping wou will move there. Transporting those troops are costly, and in the current situation was bald move, because need to transport them into better position. So he will spend 2x the transport cost for thoe units.



Different players, different styles. If I'm SHC I worry less about the loss of VL and more about the breaching of the Dnepr at Kiev on Turn 2. Of course this factors in my personal play style and where I send my units etc... But because GHC hasn't flipped any hexes west of Pskov you can pretty much ignore the entire area between Riga and Pskov and rotate the PSKOV line to run east/west and start building a line in the mountains east of VL. In the south there just isn't any good terrain except the Dnepr and the German supply situation breaching the Dnepr at Kiev will be much better than had they been forced towards the Southeast. Turn 3 gives the SHC a bit of respite due to the extended panzers so SHC must use his Turn 2 and Turn 3 as effectively as possible to plan for the Turn 4 GHC Push.





HITMAN202 -> RE: T1 south (7/3/2015 2:14:18 PM)

But remember, breeching the Dnper AGS turn 3-5 leaves the Pz with no infantry support; even more so in your case with so many AGS pockets to reduce. Kiev is a disaster for the Soviets, but remember coordination, coordination. What a start against the best overall WITE player, IMO>




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