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Lokasenna -> RE: Operation Avacado (10/17/2015 4:12:22 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
quote:
ORIGINAL: Alfred
quote:
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Victory point ratio is just a hair off 3-1...
Don't get too fixated on the idea of obtaining an auto victory on 1 January 1943. Whilst it is possible for Japan to win on that day with a 4:1 ratio the more likely scenario is a 1944 victory with a 3:1 ratio. Cribtop's AAR is a good example of forcing an Allied surrender in early 1944 due to the forthcoming auto victory.
The goal should be to cripple the Allies in 1942 to the point where they cannot claw back in meaningful terms VPs throughout 1943. Doing this may result in obtaining the 4:1 ratio in 1943 but what is important is the quality of the crippling. in 1942. Not all VPs are created equally. For Japan strategic, destroyed aircraft/ships/devices VPs are permanent and tend to be of the crippling kind. Real estate VPs can fluctuate due to supply considerations or Allied recovery and are not necessarily indicative of the war potential of the Allies.
Cripple enough in 1942 and the initiative should remain with Japan well into 1943 and if handled well, even into 1944. This is why total destruction of the Catalina factory is significant for it can cripple the entire British patrol aircraft capabilities until early 1944.
Alfred
I was thinking along either of two lines...a hail mary attack in nov/dec aimed at the west coast, but I count shipping and divisions it seems less and less likely which leaves the 1944 3-1 goal a possibility.
I got the fires up over 20,000 at Vancouver today, but the Catalina Factory remains at 2 (2). There is some kind of recon inflation where factories and industries seem to be inflated by 1 as there are only three points really there.
For the life of me, why doesn't Jocke repair the factory? He has the supplies to do so, but instead they sit destroyed day after day.
It seems the first heavy industry damage happened in Seattle in the last day or two, it would be nice for the fires to actually destroy some B29 factories. Long term I know, but it has a definite morale effect.
The good news is the weather has gone from absolutely lousy over North America to clear over Vancouver yesterday and light clouds over Seattle. May is coming in like a lamb.[:)]
If he repairs it, you get more VPs for damaging it again. Why repair what you're currently bombing? May as well wait until you're gone.
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