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Alfred -> RE: Manila Falls (4/22/2016 6:23:01 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
quote:
ORIGINAL: Alfred
Just acquiring the 6 Chinese bases shown in post #1405 to be still under Allied control is a potential 2690 VP swing and a useful decrease in the VP denominator. There should be other Chinese bases still to be captured. Plus this is all without taking into account the VPs from destroying Chinese devices.
Another benefit of capturing the Chinese bases is that the VP multiplier is much better than the modifier on the Indian bases which might be lost. A better modifier and safe from Allied recapture at least until 1944 makes China a theatre which merits speedy resolution within the context of pushing at the West Coast for an auto victory.
Add the steady harvesting of strategic VPs in Australia from Allied bases which are most unlikely to be garrisoned to any noticeable degree, means the potential for achieving an auto victory remains. Remember the real secret to a Japanese auto victory is 1944, not 1943. The point of going for the victory in 1943 is more to cripple the Allied return effort so that the 3:1 ratio achieved in 1943 is safeguarded into 1944. Of course with excellent play, there is always the possibility of achieving it sometime in 1943. It is just that achieving it on 1 January 1943 is very difficult.
Alfred
I have yet to start really harvesting Chinese VPs yet. I have 12 units totally isolated to one hex just sitting and starving.
The more I think about your 43-44 VP position, the more I like it.[sm=happy0065.gif] So much so, that I am not trying for AV in 43 (although that was Olorin's original primary goal). If it happens, it will happen because the stars aligned.
The 44 AV lets you plan a little more, get better organized, and then hopefully hit with an iron fist and then counterpunch hard thru 43. Sounds like a lot of fun!
I still think there are going to be two huge end of year operations: The West Coast, and whatever Jocke has planned.
A couple of comments.
1. Some months ago when the West Coast objective was first disclosed Bullwinkle did mention that years ago I had covered it, but in the context of a land raid and early in 1942. That analysis also predated the enhanced flak performance. A late 1942 West Coast operation was also analysed but in the context of a quick follow up to a Japanese capture of Hawaii in the 3rd quarter of 1942 when the destroyed Hawaiian assets would not have had time to reconstitute themselves on the West Coast.
It follows that the specifics which apply here make it very difficult to carry off an immediate auto victory with the forthcoming WC operation. The discussion re the better targets (Portland, San Diego et al - or even going into Canada) well illustrates the problem with the late season operation. But equally it shows the potential crippling possibilities.
As long as Japan remains capable of generating a substantial supply and HI points surplus, it is much easier for Japan to reform shattered/destroyed LCU and air units than it is for the Allies to do likewise. I therefore am not concerned about the real prospect of much which is sent to the West Coast is ultimately lost. The only real risk is if during the reforming period you lack sufficient LCU to keep the Allies in check. That risk is very minimal whilst you still control the seas.
2. As to whatever your opponent has planned. Keep track of where the 4E beasties are located. Most Allied players operate their 4E where their main land campaign focus is or will be. If the beasties are mainly in CONUS then the focus is defending the WC from invasion or to soften up your position there prior to moving to evict you from the area. Likewise if they found mainly in India, or Australia/Noumea.
Alfred
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