RE: Manila Falls (Full Version)

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CaptBeefheart -> RE: Manila Falls (10/4/2016 5:09:00 AM)

How much manpower does Japan have? You gents are talking like rebuilding 14 divisions is no big thing.

Best of luck to your brother.

Cheers,
CC



Crackaces -> RE: Manila Falls (10/4/2016 5:51:21 AM)

I am thinking the load cost in supplies is the limiting factor for what can be practically rebuilt. This without a discussion of devices from the pool that needs to be built. What are the complete load costs for these divisions?

I really think the initial expansion of the IJ perimeter using precious resources without a thought for building defensive hard points set into motion a situation I do not think the IJ can recover from.
It was a fun ride invading the WC, but now all the neglected bases and fortified positions especially Burma/DEI/Solomon's is going to allow the Allies a 6 month head start in my opinion ..

[sm=00000613.gif]



Bif1961 -> RE: Manila Falls (10/4/2016 2:25:01 PM)

Those Japanese will be the first up Penn AVE in DC, but as prioners. It is your Stalingrad. The unraveling will start slowly but it will move faster as you don't have the resources to back fill the planned defensive positions.



Lokasenna -> RE: Manila Falls (10/4/2016 5:21:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

How much manpower does Japan have? You gents are talking like rebuilding 14 divisions is no big thing.

Best of luck to your brother.

Cheers,
CC


It isn't nothing.... but you could do it. You may be sacrificing any mid-war factory changes or expansions to do so, however in an PDU Off game that seems like it may be less of an issue. The Manpower (unsure if that's what you meant, or a more general 'manpower') and HI cost isn't what would hurt - it's the supplies.

An IJA "heavy infantry" division TOE would cost (in supplies):
**(load cost of the squads in CONUS is actually 19, but on 1/43 they change)
324 squads * 17 load = 5508
48 combat engineers * 16 load = 768
54 HMG * 10 load = 540
18 AT guns * 7 load = 126
18 70mm guns * 6 load = 108
12 75mm guns * 8 load = 96
12 motor squads * 17 load = 204
17 light tanks * 7 load = 119
18 AAMGs * 4 load = 72
5 engineers * 12 load = 60
25 motorized support * 15 load = 375
425 support * 12 load = 5100

Total load cost (which should be supply cost of rebuilding) = 13076

So it's not nothing.... but that's only about a day's surplus supply production on Honshu in Scen 2. Presumably a little more than a day's surplus in Scen 1.

For the weaker divisions, you can reduce this by about 45 squads, a like number of support, and many of the guns. That would drop the cost to the 11-12K range for a weaker division.



JohnDillworth -> RE: Manila Falls (10/4/2016 6:47:54 PM)

How much of an experience hit do the rebuilt units take? Because this Schwerpunkt looks like the equivalent of the whole 6th Army



Canoerebel -> RE: Manila Falls (10/4/2016 7:00:15 PM)

Jeff undoubtedly would prefer to avoid the novel experience of Japan recovering from a massive debacle like this one (hey, Jeff, I too am a veteran of the huge defeat experience), but it will be challenging for him and interesting for the reader to see how he responds. He'll be taxed to invent novel ways to slow the Allied advance, but he'll surprise himself by what he's able to do and he'll be a stronger player for it.

On the surface of things it doesn't seem worthwhile to send scores of naked transports to the West Coast in what seems to be a longshot Dunkirk. But the bean counters and accountants might figure out that it is worth it, potentially.

I think Jeff might consider a new name for this AAR: Buyer's Remorse.

But he'll do a good job going forward.



Lokasenna -> RE: Manila Falls (10/4/2016 7:02:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

How much of an experience hit do the rebuilt units take? Because this Schwerpunkt looks like the equivalent of the whole 6th Army


That depends. If you're rebuilding completely, they start really low. I want to say 40? Maybe 25? They will train up, however.

If you're rebuilding from a fragment, then each replaced device has a chance to lower the experience of the unit towards the national training average (which is 50 for the IJA, IIRC). So at minimum they would still have 50 experience.



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (10/10/2016 3:17:14 PM)

Brother got his pacemaker and is doing exceptionally well, returns to work today! He got an experimental version, 41st in the program, no leads and so has an expiration date when the battery fails. Unbelievable science.

In other news, car seems pretty much shot.

and in other news, the war continues:

Feb 13, 1943

Japan sweeps in the western empire and gets about 15-20 Allied fighters downed for 5 zeroes.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/8980BF7A7D704CA39FF00FFAF1325BB1.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Manila Falls (10/10/2016 3:19:40 PM)

You mean Feb. 13, 1943, right?



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (10/10/2016 3:22:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You mean Feb. 13, 1943, right?

Oops, fixed.[sm=00000030.gif]



Canoerebel -> RE: Manila Falls (10/10/2016 3:31:06 PM)

Jeff, your readers know the situation on the West Coast (especially those reading both AARs, as I am), but we'd love to get your thoughts about your long-term plans. You fight longer and harder than most players; you've just been through an end-game situation, and now you're in 1943 in this game. Tell us what's going on in that mind of yours. And I'm not talking about a paragraph or five done in five or ten minutes. Take your time and begin to share detailed thoughts over the coming days and weeks. Given the resilience and determination you've shown in the past, I think this game will veer even further into interesting and unusual territory.



obvert -> RE: Manila Falls (10/13/2016 11:40:45 AM)

Yep. As CR mentions above, very curious to hear your thoughts on this one going forward.



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (10/13/2016 3:02:05 PM)

Sorry no picture today, as I have to car shopping.

---

My sweeps don't fly in the west; and in Hollywood, 13 Allied units show up east of LA. Perhaps I can surprise him, but I am guessing it is 10 divisions four of which are AFVs.


It will be bloody!



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (10/13/2016 3:03:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Yep. As CR mentions above, very curious to hear your thoughts on this one going forward.


Yep, I have thought a lot about it and haven't nearly despaired. As I have said before I think Japan can suffer this kind of troop loss once.

More later as I get some free time....



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (10/15/2016 6:36:33 PM)

Horse show today, so not much time to post.


A few days have gone by, beat back the 1st attack with losses on both side east of LA. 1-1 attack with 0 forts. I got forts to 1, and perhaps 2 by the time of the next attack.

Splinters of Tojo IIb fight in the air, but just splinters. The squadrons are on their way back to Pearl.

Abandoned LA, will fight it out in the open, perhaps with a suicidal banzai charge before supply dries up.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/20078F4185124589A84BF7B107ED6446.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (10/15/2016 6:38:13 PM)

Now that Jocke needs to fly CAP, I am starting to sweep more.

Overall, in great shape fighters wise, r&d wise, and engine wise.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/8F9F715155C041DD9A2BF2C9665FEADD.jpg[/image]



DanSez -> RE: Manila Falls (10/23/2016 6:11:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

...
Splinters of Tojo IIb fight in the air, but just splinters. The squadrons are on their way back to Pearl.


Curious, what do you have in Pearl Harbor and how far back are you considering the pull back in the Central Pacific given the situation to the South and the CBI?





Lokasenna -> RE: Manila Falls (11/14/2016 12:05:43 AM)

You've fallen to the middle of page 2...

Your post-mortem of CONUS is hereby requested as a disciplinary measure.



Encircled -> RE: Manila Falls (11/14/2016 11:37:10 AM)

Any chance you could begin with "The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage"



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/19/2016 2:41:16 PM)

March 15, 1943

AAR woefully behind, but for the most part, except with some travel days, kept to 1 turn a day recently, but now I am in Thanksgiving holiday.

WestCoast has been beaten back to to here, & I have inflicted some losses but the end is near for a huge slug of Japanese troops.



[image]local://upfiles/44178/767B0D9CF0EC428D8EA504BE2A9AC6C2.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/19/2016 2:50:46 PM)

Burma

Ok, here I guess. British battleships are painful, my few air strikes I tries, targeted and relatively small in number were easily destroyed by the Allies. Have flown some good sweeps here in recent days.

SL really changes some of the ground war here.

Magwe producing full oil.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/2D6B8C04A861421D90E9FC3CB14B8A3D.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/19/2016 2:53:58 PM)

Pearl Harbor



[image]local://upfiles/44178/FFCC535D98E34DE4BBE8A78758AA55D6.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/19/2016 2:56:06 PM)

The other area of Allied offensives...

[image]local://upfiles/44178/0D277D22C37E47D8A22A8A1932546015.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/19/2016 2:57:22 PM)

Japanese Army losses about to skyrocket.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/C88DC74B3C264637AA81D45D44D3F6C9.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/19/2016 3:01:31 PM)

China,

54 units south of Chungking.

[image]local://upfiles/44178/7E67FFC5FEBF4CC9B75451ADADA94B1C.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/20/2016 3:10:24 PM)

March 16, 1943

Swept Chittagong twice, with Tojo and Zekes. Each side lost around a dozen planes.

Here is the battle report for the Tojo sweep.

Morning Air attack on Chittagong , at 55,41

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 10 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 32

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 15
Hurricane IIc Trop x 35

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb Trop: 1 destroyed
Hurricane IIc Trop: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 30000 feet

CAP engaged:
No.17 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIb Trop (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters to 29000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
No.34 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIc Trop (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 2 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 30000 , scrambling fighters to 31550.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
No.60 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIc Trop (0 airborne, 2 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 30000 , scrambling fighters between 30000 and 31550.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes
No.258 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIb Trop (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 4 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 28990 and 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 19 minutes
No.273 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIc Trop (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 4 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 30000 , scrambling fighters between 31550 and 35220.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
No.615 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIc Trop (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 30000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 31550.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes
No.261 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIc Trop (0 airborne, 2 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 30000 , scrambling fighters between 29590 and 32000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes




Olorin -> RE: Manila Falls (11/22/2016 12:19:29 PM)

I feel somewhat guilty for the outcome of your WC adventure Lowpe. This defeat belongs partly to me. Now, we are expecting to hear your plans for defending the Empire from the evil expansionists at the White house.



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/22/2016 4:22:38 PM)

I was perusing my plane r&d, and I have three size 60 factories going after the Ki94ii.

I think Olorin set these up very early in the game. They are repaired to 23, 23, & 17 (out of a total of 60). Hence my supposition that there is really no point for Japan to r&d any plane later than the Frank A at game start.

Think of r&d in waves. First wave, 2nd wave, 3rd wave. Or possibly just 1st and 2nd wave.



Lowpe -> RE: Manila Falls (11/22/2016 4:23:51 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Olorin

I feel somewhat guilty for the outcome of your WC adventure Lowpe. This defeat belongs partly to me. Now, we are expecting to hear your plans for defending the Empire from the evil expansionists at the White house.



I did it[:)], hoping to steal a march on Jocke. If he hadn't had 3+ divisions in San Diego the plan would have worked. In Hindsight I should have reconned the east coast better, but not sure how to do that without giving away everything.




Lokasenna -> RE: Manila Falls (11/22/2016 4:44:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I was perusing my plane r&d, and I have three size 60 factories going after the Ki94ii.

I think Olorin set these up very early in the game. They are repaired to 23, 23, & 17 (out of a total of 60). Hence my supposition that there is really no point for Japan to r&d any plane later than the Frank A at game start.

Think of r&d in waves. First wave, 2nd wave, 3rd wave. Or possibly just 1st and 2nd wave.


...I mean, I guess? That costs a s*ton of supplies, though. I mean granted - these size-60 could've been 2 generations of size-30 (really, when switching models it typically drops from 30 to 20 so you lose out on another 1000 supplies for expansion costs).

But those are half repaired "already." That's not awful. If you waited until you had the Frank-r before starting R&D on these, you'd be behind.

That said, I do think there's an argument to researching the 1942 and early 1943 planes first, and THEN setting up these late-war models for R&D, because you're only going to get maybe 5-6 points of repair in 1942 at best. But that's still better than zero points...



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