RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (Full Version)

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sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/24/2016 9:21:45 PM)

losses


[image]local://upfiles/35790/7F3D6B09EDCC495585DC4C805E581394.jpg[/image]



topeverest -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/24/2016 10:59:17 PM)

Sillyflower,

In your experience, how accurate are estimates of enemy permanent tank losses? The reason I ask is that I am Russian in my game and I am tracking
German tank losses to see how effective attrition warfare is. I am looking to determine how much faith to put in them.

Additionally, I am trying to decipher how you maintain initiative for so long in the game. What are your underlying principles?

very well done. A lot to learn here.

[:D]

quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

T75 losses

[image]local://upfiles/35790/1D28E94030A049D49B0D69423AAD0C9F.jpg[/image]




sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/25/2016 8:53:12 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: topeverest

Sillyflower,

In your experience, how accurate are estimates of enemy permanent tank losses? The reason I ask is that I am Russian in my game and I am tracking
German tank losses to see how effective attrition warfare is. I am looking to determine how much faith to put in them.

Additionally, I am trying to decipher how you maintain initiative for so long in the game. What are your underlying principles?

very well done. A lot to learn here.




First of all - happy Saturnalia/bah humbug to all my readers [:D]

To answer your qu's, I believe all casualty figures are correct except the beginning of turn numbers which Morvael is going to fix. Re the totals, the losses of men total is not correct because returning disabled disappear from the numbers. The number of R prisoners also decreases when 8% start turning into HIWIs. Whilst the G can see the no. of HIWIs created, that also includes recruits from captured manpower centres. You can track the numbers separately as they are given at the start of every turn, but I have never done that myself.

As for my underlying principles, I can do no better than quote what an American Air Force colonel told me many years ago when I professed to being a fan of american football. He said that the difference between that game and rugby was that in the latter the aim was to tackle your opponent without getting hurt. In football the aim of a tackle was to hurt your opponent more than it hurt you. I try to play WiTE like american football.

As for this game, I had to keep attacking to get the 260VPs needed to win. I was able to because I focusssed on destroying the red army in '41, which had the spin-off effect of enabling me to grab a lot of ground and do severe nasties to Bran's economy. I was then able to keep going because Brian's '42 army was undersized. Once I got my 260VPs, it became a Alt VC290 game so I have to keep going.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/26/2016 9:37:10 PM)

T76 unit losses 1 cav xxx, 2 cav xx (wonderfully expensive in arms points to replace), 2 rifle xx (1 gd) 2/3rds of a tank xxx, 2 rifle x, 2 regts and 1 bn. Air losses 54 to 191.

Lot of Russian units pocketed after their T75 efforts to rescue their fellows temporarily. R losses should be high next turn if the pockets hold. Long may Brian's aggression continue.

I will try to finish + post my analysis of the soviet economy tomorrow



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/28/2016 10:31:19 AM)

The Russian economy

HI
49 factories were captured, but so were a lot of vehicle and aircraft factories. B also has a small army so he will easily have enough supplies.

Armaments
He lost 94 factories leaving 276. These each produce 325 points per turn (at least according to updated manual)ie a total of 89,700 per turn. In practice he will be getting fewer at the moment as he's had to do some evacuations as I've advanced northwards. Anything below 100K per turn will be a limiting factor for him. BY comparison, in my game vs Manstein63's nazis, we are about 10 turns ahead of this game (1st turn of March '43) and I'm spending about 110K per turn.

Trucks
Brian lost 31 out of 140 vehicle factories in '41. He's also been losing a lot of tank corps and brigades which cost him a lot of vehicles. Trucks are probably the most important/only shortage for the Russians in a normal game. However, as he's not advancing and has a small army, he won't be using as many as normal so trucks aren't going to be a significant factor at the moment. It may be very different if I run away at any point and his supply lines lengthen.

Rail capacity

I've captured 207/298 rail yards which reduces his rail capacity to 45,500 points per turn (91x500). This will be having a major impact on his strategic mobility not units cost a lot more to rail. However, given the current state of play, I don't think he is doing major shifts of units at the moment. This may change of course but leaves me less exposed to any offensive plans he may have one day.

Manpower

I've left the most important and most difficult to calculate until last.R starts with 3937 baby factories and I've captured 1526 (almost 39%) at this point. However, baby factories can be destroyed the 1st tie they are captured, and there is a complicated equation that determines the number. Actually the equation is relatively simple but its impossible to work out retrospectively how many were destroyed without asking Brian how many he has left, which I have not done.From my game with Manstein in which he told me how many he has captured, I reckon that about 30% of this number were also destroyed. I don't know if this is right or typical, but hopefully someone like Morvael or Denniss will read this and be able to comment usefully. There is also the factor of displaced manpower centre which are not producing much if at all.

Taking the 30% figure and assuming 100 displaced and unproductive baby factories, Brian should be getting about 75K fresh recruits per turn. In addition if the trickleback of disabled troops is still 0.5%, that will be another 2.5K per turn, for a total of approx 77.5K per turn.

I guess Brian's attrition losses to be around 40K per turn, and his combat losses in both his and my turns are rarely less than 35K other than in mud, and often more. He still gets a trickle of new units at this point which are keeping his OOB up. The good news for me is that come 1 Jan '43 his manpower multiplier goes down from 40 to 35, which will reduce his manpower reinforcements by about another 8K per turn, whilst mine increase by a massive 1680 per turn (don't laugh - that 12.5% extra) and my arms points go up by 70% while his stay the same.

Conclusion

Brian's biggest problem is and will continue to be be manpower, especially if he continues to lose more baby factories, with lack of armaments being problematic if he somehow manages to grow his army size.By comparison, his transport problems are unlikely to be decisive. I know what I need to concentrate on [8D].






sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/30/2016 12:23:29 PM)

T77



[image]local://upfiles/35790/97B6AC3C64EE4DB1BECB09249C3F73ED.jpg[/image]

The pocket on the western side held as Brian decides not to make an attempt to open it. A much more defensive turn from him which I expect reflects concerns about losses. However, my efforts are somewhat dissipated at the moment - more focus needed as R defensive strengths grow.

Manstein transfers to 14th pz xxx which does an HQBU get some more penetration next turn.Top left of pic - you can see the units with 0 MPs



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/30/2016 12:29:51 PM)

losses

[image]local://upfiles/35790/0E3882E0A2184684851E238852541859.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/30/2016 12:30:49 PM)

OOBs

[image]local://upfiles/35790/F1F45A487D0D4FA1812FC8A7ED3EF72C.jpg[/image]

G and R OOB both down in manpower slightly since T74 but soviet arty increased by 700 which is disappointing. Have yet to see any arty divs yet even though I expect they are the reason for the increase (? I just haven't looked at the combat reports of R attacks), or any mech corps or brigades for that matter. One aspect of R arty units is that they are defensively very effective even when on their own, though unsupported or inadequately supported arty is almost always easy prey IRL.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (12/31/2016 8:16:02 PM)

Thoughts on T77

3 tank xxx, 1 gd cav xxx, 1 cav xx, 4 rifle xx 2 rifle x, 3 regts and 1 bn destroyed + some other attacks to net only 36K casualties of which 31K are casualties. which was a bit disappointing. the tk xxx on the east side just disappeared when I moved a unit up to it. It's getting harder but we reach the milestone of 8M R casualties after HIWIs and returning disabled are taken out [:)]. At least Brian's night bombers are now largely ineffective due to a combination of the latest patch and having all my fighters on both day and night missions. Air losses in my turn were 40 to 84.

Best bit was taking another 15 baby factories with (I think) 2 more destroyed and 1 displaced. 720 fewer Bolsheviks to face every turn. With Brian seemingly being more cautious about not doing attacks that just lead to many of the attackers surrendering 2 turns later, reducing his weekly replacements is key for me.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/2/2017 10:37:24 AM)

we are speeding up a bit (I returned T80 last night) so I'm a bit behind-hand

T78

[image]local://upfiles/35790/FDC20C0DD7A345E2B0A57CEE1AC68D4D.jpg[/image]

The aucasus is cleared at last as a security regt surrenders. Leaving garrisons and a Romanian cav x to chase down any terrorists who may appear, the rest head off towards Astrakhan.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/2/2017 10:41:51 AM)

Moscow

[image]local://upfiles/35790/AEBB5879D4404870ACAF4AAE37222C85.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/2/2017 10:54:24 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

T77



[image]local://upfiles/35790/97B6AC3C64EE4DB1BECB09249C3F73ED.jpg[/image]

The pocket on the western side held as Brian decides not to make an attempt to open it. A much more defensive turn from him which I expect reflects concerns about losses. However, my efforts are somewhat dissipated at the moment - more focus needed as R defensive strengths grow.

Manstein transfers to 14th pz xxx which does an HQBU get some more penetration next turn.




sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/4/2017 8:49:09 PM)

losses


[image]local://upfiles/35790/F8EC2BB9D7EA43BFBCF73E515159E391.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/4/2017 8:49:58 PM)

OOBs

[image]local://upfiles/35790/CB87766CC6274022BDFB90806AD2A7B6.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/4/2017 9:03:57 PM)

Thoughts on T78

Hard work on the ground to get very far. Loss ratios not much better than 1:1, though advances of up to 60 miles were made which is excellent progress. Only 1 sec regt destroyed this turn. On the positive side, that clears the Caucasus and I will get 150 or so HIWIs from it. 24 baby factories captured and 2 displaced made the turn worthwhile by reducing soviet replacements by 1K per turn..

Goering basks in glory as the LW destroys 312 enemy machines for the loss of only 88, and a very similar result occurred during the preceding R turn. Note for historians: the Wehrmacht caused about 20% of the R losses when they overran an airfield.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/6/2017 7:40:40 AM)

As Brian clearly knows what I'm trying to do (he's currently doing his T81), here the are pics I sent to Michael T a few turns back

[image]local://upfiles/35790/4BC2D4569E584B4988CA57A8BFA573C4.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/6/2017 7:41:22 AM)

the other

[image]local://upfiles/35790/1D37D93D4ED94DAEBC081F03A0FA6D54.jpg[/image]

These are the only 2 rail lines into the bulge I call 'Brian's Ballsack' in honour of General Westmoreland who famously said when commander of US ground forces in Vietnam "get them by the balls and their minds will follow". He was clearly a poor psychologist, but that's another issue.



timmyab -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/6/2017 10:46:55 AM)

quote:

These are the only 2 rail lines into the bulge I call 'Brian's Ballsack'

Lol! If that's the ballsack then beware of a massive penetration somewhere to the North of it [:D]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/7/2017 11:19:09 AM)

T79

[image]local://upfiles/35790/FE14EC1583A445D1A272F21B544B1023.jpg[/image]

So close to cutting the line, but Brian has clearly seen the danger. Oh for a strong pz corps here to finish the job.....................



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/7/2017 11:23:58 AM)

main action

[image]local://upfiles/35790/51633F1A945F4A1E889F477A26BE6F28.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/7/2017 11:24:52 AM)

deleted



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/7/2017 11:26:15 AM)

The full ballsack squeezed from both sides. On the south side, I'm just following him as I don't want to hasten his retreat.

[image]local://upfiles/35790/711F0985F5464054B00FB937501B3A40.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/10/2017 2:52:25 PM)

duplicated below



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/10/2017 2:55:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

Some stats for those who, like me, have little life beyond Wite

[image]local://upfiles/35790/D909B1F9AF0C450EB5A59547170F2D09.jpg[/image]


Straightforward attacks just lead to 1:1 casualty ratio so it is imperative to be selective at this stage in the war. The land grab and reduction in his manpower make it worth while to keep attacking.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/10/2017 2:56:15 PM)

German production

[image]local://upfiles/35790/50555E5B718F4DECA3C78AC88EA4DACB.jpg[/image]

Good to have a few spare arms points, but the manpower is just those in the transit pool.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/10/2017 2:58:49 PM)

OOBs

[image]local://upfiles/35790/FE2EEDAFC0C24026B9BC395BB1AD7284.jpg[/image]

Both sides have shrunk by about 50K since the game 'ended'. I need surrounds to cut his army down though, and then his worsening manpower will keep it down.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/12/2017 9:58:33 AM)

I have at last found my notebook with turn comments after the real SF decided that my toy-room needed tidying, which caused the notebook to go missing for 3 days [sm=00000018.gif].

Air losses 66 to 163. Seem to be doing a lot better in the air these days. Only destroyed 2 rifle x, but captured 22 baby factories and displaced 6 more. 183 still left in the ballsack, excluding Ryazan which has another 14, but inc. those on the Ryazan-Syzran rail line. I think between 20-25 are ones displaced earlier in the game but which clearly did not displace far enough.

1 of Brian's only 2 remaining IL2 factories is still in Voronezh, and I hope he forgets to move it. At best for him, he can only rail out fewer than half due to his lack of rail capacity so he will be down to 54 p/w for some time.

Despite inflicting low losses for a couple of turns, the soviet OOB seems to be static, and the Wehrmacht is growing slightly, though largely due to an influx of wasteful LW divs. Looking forward to '43 when R m/power centres reduce production from 40 to 35 per turn, whilst G ones increase by about the same percentage - from 8 to a mighty 9 per turn. G arms production also leaps by 70%.

The sighting of the 1st mech xxx in Penza is a reminder of what is to come. With R NM increasing and mine going down, I'm not sure if I will be able/willing to launch another strategic offensive after this one.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/13/2017 3:23:17 PM)

T80

Moscow - I plant myself next to the last rail line into the ballsack, but converted RR only counts as 1MP per hex, but 'we need a pointless gesture at this stage in the war'. Bragging rights to anyone who knows where this quote comes from (without recourse to search engines) and a bonus to anyone who can name the speaker.



[image]local://upfiles/35790/1450CB8A71C84F7E8D33A3F5C157D12A.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/13/2017 3:26:03 PM)

Ballsack now fits into a single screenie

[image]local://upfiles/35790/FA045F72264C4F2A8DDD65095808BDB7.jpg[/image]

As I can't take Penza, my rail line can't go north. I have to go via Tambov. I therefore change direction and head west. Judging by my progress, Brian will be slightly surprised. Couldn't quite close the large pocket, but they won't escape.......... SS Wiking (just visible under a parachute)is very exposed but I've dropped fuel and I think this will be a bit of a dilemma for Brian.It is in his way, but he doesn't have much offensive power there as I can tell. If he attacks, which would be his natural response, the attackers aren't going to get away even if the attack succeeds. Even more so if he occupies all 6 surrounding hexes in order to rout it out. Retreating it 1 hex won't do much, but leaving it there with petrol is less than ideal for him too [sm=comp16.gif]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/16/2017 8:56:03 AM)

losses 10.2K to 20.1K. Not enough Bolsheviks perish! Goering continues to shine as air losses 46 to 176. Must be due to his new diet. 22 baby factories captured, 5 destroyed and 11 displaced so that's another 1520 men per week who will not be signing up to the red army. Total R losses reach 8.25M and G and R OOBs 3.96M and 5.44M respectively.



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