RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (Full Version)

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sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/20/2016 7:45:32 PM)

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sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/20/2016 7:46:34 PM)

air

[image]local://upfiles/35790/B949082F57644D33AB88179954B2DDC4.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/20/2016 7:47:54 PM)

last but by no means least important

[image]local://upfiles/35790/A4944FB101A64BF39878E470FEAE540D.jpg[/image]

My only loss is a Rumanian artillery battalion



Peltonx -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/20/2016 9:01:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

Back to T13

The fall of the 3 cities in the south netted another 16 rail yards, or 8K of soviet rail capacity.
He should be down to 109K now which must hurt. He's also lost 48 arms and 36 HI to date.
Brian seems to be favouring moving HI over arms. Another 16 arms are locked up in Stalino and Kaluga.

I don't think the loss of HI will hurt the Bolsheviks given the loss of other factories, but more arms would be nice.

Our forces came across the new style tank brigades for the first time.
The only one that did not rout on first contact shattered instead.
May many more of these appear in the front line.

I'm happy with things but I do not underestimate Brian.
Moscow is now the crucial battle before the blizzard, as Pelton has noted.
It's still got all its factories and there are 17 arms still in Tula I think.


Rail yards mean little at this point, its manpower centers.

He has lost less then 70 armaments, you have 64 so you need 6 more before a real impact long run. I never lost a game 100+. 70-100 is a grey area.

Hvy now is more important then armament (unless you hit 100) 36+ being the target,

HVY: 236 Need to get under: 200 or destroy 36+
AP: 370 Need to get under: 300 or destroy 70+
Fuel: 149 Need to get under: 140 or capture 9+

I did not figure this out several other players did, but I copy a ton of interesting data to me zip drive.

If you don't take Moscow, then on to blizzard and 42.

Your doing great for 41, BUT your at the end of logistical chain.

You simply can not frontal assault Moscow (unless BrianG gets uber stupid) so you have a very small window to cut it off aka Pelton vs M60.

If you don't then blizzard is next phase of game not sure which one you guys picked, but Brian is good at grinding down morale/troops=armaments and keep grinding during spring.

Then your at summer 42 for all the marbles.




chaos45 -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/20/2016 9:27:39 PM)

actually unless something changes in this patch you can lose more Heavy and still be fine---

For heavy below 180 is when its critical by the numbers.

Less armaments just means it harder for the soviets to rebuild a strong offensive force- Cav in the early game, artillery in the late game. Would say anything below 300 hurts long term esp since Armaments never scales higher for the soviets by year like heavy does.

Going to be a close match before weather locks down the front I think......



HITMAN202 -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/21/2016 2:00:55 AM)

Turn 13 AGC screenshot is foreboding for the Ruskies. 158 divisions destroyed (T13) is remarkable, with another 6 AGN, 5-6 AGC (one at Orel ??) and 1 AGS, that totals 170 !!! Many recent AAR's show fewer than 150 pre-blizzard.

Assuming recon was thorough AGC, I see Moscow falling without a major encirclement. Siberian replacements are coming to the rescue, but the lack of any d-line network close to Moscow spells it's doom. Maybe Silly's recon isn't complete, though.

AGS.. Looks like Brian will be pushed back to the Donets River.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/21/2016 7:04:14 AM)

Thanks for all these comments.

My thoughts:

1 Rail does really matter now unit rail costs have gone up so much. I have learned this from my game as Russians vs Manstein 63. Not so easy to get the replacements up from the east edge as it used to be unless you want to leave your factories to the Nazis.

2 Arms points are difficult to be dogmatic about. More destroyed means longer period in 41/42 when Russians don't have any -especially as Brian has a lot of cav to rebuild [:D]. Longer terms Russians will probably have 1 million + in the bank, but much will depend on Russian '42 losses of units.

3 Manpower - I try to hoover these up as quickly as possible, especially in '41 when they produce 50 men each per turn. I expect Brian is running on empty in the ready pool each turn.

4 HI The impact of losses will be far less if hardware factories are destroyed or if the Russian self-destructs some of them. At least, this is how I understand the production system.

Fuel - I have never seen this as an issue in any game, but in the 2 games in which my Jerries took the Caucasus Russian surrender followed. As Russian I've never lost any oil producing city in the Caucasus, but in the early days of WiTE I did surrender to Michael T before he could get to it.......

6 Isolating Moscow no longer makes it easier to take the 3 urban hexes. I took the heavy urban hex in L'grad (with its 4.9 level fort) by brute force. Moscow is not fortified at all. I don't do as much recon as others - just to help me decide when I'm unsure quite what to do or how to do it. This may, of course, be sloth/miserliness rather than wise play on my part. Recce has consistently shown that the Soviet forces in front of Moscow are all in the front line.

7 We have mild blizzard tho' para drops are allowed from Jan '42. The latter makes the 9 Li2 factories in Khimki a target for me, though doubtless he will just rail 1 of these factories out. The way I see it is that the more of his army I destroy now, the easier the blizzard will be for me.



loki100 -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/21/2016 7:29:52 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

...

Rail yards mean little at this point, its manpower centers.

...



Pelton I think this is one small instance where only playing one side hinders your appreciation. Rail cap is essential up to mid-1942 as it influences how fast you can bring the returning units to the front as well as transfers across the front (I'm assuming that by mud 1941 the bulk of the industry transfer is over).

Beyond that, the days of having entire Soviet fronts sitting on the rails are long over. Its now a struggle to move the equivalent of 3 armies in any one turn, so a major shift of focus takes time. If I was playing as the Germans I'd endorse Sillyflower's focus on trying to inflict as much damage as possible as early as possible to Soviet rail capacity.



Disgruntled Veteran -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 1:23:18 PM)

David,

Good Job on your AAR. Reading one of these for the first time in nearly a year makes me want to play a game again.
Keep up the good work.



Peltonx -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 4:32:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

...

Rail yards mean little at this point, its manpower centers.

...



Pelton I think this is one small instance where only playing one side hinders your appreciation. Rail cap is essential up to mid-1942 as it influences how fast you can bring the returning units to the front as well as transfers across the front (I'm assuming that by mud 1941 the bulk of the industry transfer is over).

Beyond that, the days of having entire Soviet fronts sitting on the rails are long over. Its now a struggle to move the equivalent of 3 armies in any one turn, so a major shift of focus takes time. If I was playing as the Germans I'd endorse Sillyflower's focus on trying to inflict as much damage as possible as early as possible to Soviet rail capacity.


Your probably right



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 4:59:55 PM)

@ DV - Tx Shaun. Makes the AAR worthwhile if it gets people playing (again).

@ Pelton - Loki is right but it's a pain for the German too: just less of one. Russians get nerfed again.............



timmyab -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 6:56:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
Russians get nerfed again.............

There's some help for the Russians in the next patch.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 7:46:33 PM)

Oh dear. I think the change is good - and I mainly play Russians



timmyab -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 7:58:20 PM)

It's only a tweak. The Soviet side in 41 should still be plenty of a challenge vs a strong Axis player.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 9:16:59 PM)

T16 dispatched to the server so here's T14

[image]local://upfiles/35790/7FBD6BE8D16D47AFB6CCA320C0593C44.jpg[/image]

Yawnsville Arizona is probably more exciting than this part of the map.. As you may have read, I took Volkov to put the russians in the far north out of supply, not knowing that the rules had changed. They now draw supply from th rail line coming down from the top of the map, so I rather wasted my time.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/23/2016 9:23:20 PM)

Moscow more interesting, but it's time to put the dogs,cats and me to bed, so you will have to make do with a picture of the Big Empty

[image]local://upfiles/35790/8D6261F673194ABABF75229D11BE1536.jpg[/image]

Belgorod and Kursk and a few manpower centres liberated without resistance, and Kursk still had its 2 arms factories [:)]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/24/2016 9:56:07 AM)

I am very silly, and notice that I posted the air losses for last turn twice. Apologies and here was what I should have posted for T13 Almost a quarter of his cav. losses to date were suffered this turn, and 106 heavy arty pieces (150mm+) also died this turn, as I strive to weaken his winter O before it starts.

[image]local://upfiles/35790/FE141FDA3FC94548A5A08F35093FCF04.jpg[/image]



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/24/2016 10:12:21 AM)

Back to T14 south

[image]local://upfiles/35790/81C05371F302456398F5A07075DF8D67.jpg[/image]

True to form, Brian counter-attacked viorously, retaking Merkeeva and narrowing the 'Rostov finger' in places.

Merkeeva was re-liberated with the result that there are now 2 isolated Russian inf divs in Stalino rather than 1. Still, the delay this turn and next probably makes the sacrifice worth it. Otherwise just stiffening the Rostov finger. Can't do more due to lack of petrol. That will improve as the 2PzG corps does HQBU west of Stalino, and a 1PZG corps moves back to just south of Stalino for an HQBU next turn when it should all be within 20 MP of rail head. The loss of momentum is annoying, but I prefer to invest in the remaining clear turns to try to achieve something worthwhile. Meanwhile, all the JU 52 love bomb another pz corps @ Tagranog so I will have some good mobility next turn. My eastern-most divs (the 2 SS and the mot. xx in Rostov) are still stuck with about 6 or 7 MPs between them (not each [:(]).

Amost all of 11 Army is now across the Dnepr and has started to clear the marshes W of Rostov. The 2 options next turn are likely to be to head north from the Rostov finger or to cross the Donets with the objective of triggering the split of AGS into army groups A+B



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/24/2016 10:39:17 AM)

Saving the most interesting to last: Moscow

[image]local://upfiles/35790/A361313901EF4D09BF905D366FF33256.jpg[/image]

The battle of Maloyaroslavets is featured not because of its importance. but to stress again the importance of sequencing attacks so that the enemy has to retreat through a ZOC. This was not a high odds battle, and Russian losses were only about 1200 or so I think before they retreated. Not only did the lack of a clear retreat path cause them all to rout so I don't have to worry about them again for at least the rest of this turn, but the casualties went up by just over x3. Grinding is slow and expensive, but the high numbers of routs I've been getting is starting to pay off.

Another oft-repeated finding in this game is that the best way through Brian's lines is always from the south because that'a where his defences are weakest. This turn was no exception. This was particularly fortunate because the Oka is a major river here so makes an ideal secure flank.

Elements of 2nd Army and Model's 1 xxx attacked in the north, Whilst Manstein's 56th pz xxx did an HQBU. Once the 4 inf divs in the small pocket W of Kaluga had surrendered, the Wehrmacht had a clear path across the Oka just to the west of Kaluga. There were only weak units in the way, many of whom were persuaded to rout south over the Oka. This cleared the way whilst maximising losses from retreating or routing. Infantry made the initial penetration. The armour from 2 and 3 Pz Gs followed, getting as far as Stupino on the Oka to secure the southern flank. Bolshevik reinforcements from the South to Moscow will nowhave to go the long way round via Kolumna. Other divisions headed NE ending only 30 miles from Moscow with 3 more weeks of clear weather to go.

Behind the panzers, the infantry isolates Kaluga and its 8 arms factories.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/24/2016 3:39:28 PM)

Thoughts on T14

Losses 8.8K to 69K. Not good but due to lack of much happening north and south. Also displaced a few more HQs again in the Moscow area this turn, so fingers crossed that some have descended to the Netherhells as he seems to have his best generals there.

Air 102 (not good) to 357 (v. good) thanks to airbase overruns in Moscow area

Factory losses 50 arms, 36 HI 6 vehicles + the Tagranog Lagg 3s. It appears that the loss of the BA10 and SU2 factories doesn't matter after all. 16 arms and 5 vehicles isolated in Stalino + Kaluga.

Unit kills of only 5 inf divs and 1 tk x (this and 1 inf due to shatters in the Moscow area [sm=character0272.gif]) are the fewest in the game so far.

North - slightly annoying but my own fault. Don't have the rail capacity to move the remaining armour south even if I had wanted to, and probably a bit late now.

South - more opportunities than petrol. If I were Brian I would want to back off a bit, but I'm not and don't know what to expect. Stalingrad looks too far away though[:)]

Centre - AGC was clearly stung by my earlier criticisms and now exceed. my expectations: no doubt aided by the elite reinforcements from AGN.

Pelton in his AAR vs vigibrand said (post 47) V was wrong to pull back in front of Moscow when I think the situation was similar to the one Brian is in now. Whatever the rights and wrongs in that game, I think Brian needs to pull back and spend all his rail points evacuating Moscow's factories. The all seem to be there still inc the a/c factories in Khimki. I would expect Brian to notice that Manstein's corps did not do any attacks this turn which can only mean 1 thing.

Looking forward to T15 whatever Brian does, especially if he prioritises railing troops instead of factories. With crises middle and south, he may well want to. It seems to be a feature of his game. No doubt necessary if the Soviets want to fight forward.

The next 3 turns need to weaken his capacity for the blizzard O, however that can be done.



Peltonx -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/24/2016 4:24:22 PM)

Nice job over all. Still going to be hard to take the hexes with a frontal assault and does not appear you have the time to encircle it.

I think Brian traded that space for time as his bigger units will be north and south of Moscow.

I would also be surpised if Brian was not holding back at least 1 Army for winter.

Generally speaking north of the Oka is a solid line from Dec 41 - late 43.

So whatever you manage to take and hold onto during blizzard is where lines will be locked for a long time.




sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/24/2016 8:34:05 PM)

I agree with a lot of what you say but

1 There's not much sign of massed Russians elsewhere, nor are there of any defence lines to speak of in or around Moscow which would be the obvious place. Of course, they may be stuck in the far east awaiting trains. That's what quite a lot of my units are doing in my Soviet game which is on a par date-wise with this AAR. If there are secret squirrel armies around, I would expect them to descend on Moscow in force during his turn. I believe that we are agreed that this is the crucial battle for the rest of '41, and I would be surprised if Brian thought otherwise we shall see.

2 Surrounding urban hexes doesn't help to kill them now. This makes it a lot harder to take Moscow. If brute force doesn't work, and that's likely only to succeed with W Moscow. I will have to isolate Moscow before the mud and hope that 4 turns of isolation weakens them enough to take them in 3 snow turns.A huge ask by any standards[sm=Christo_pull_hair.gif]. Brian is obviously confident as all those factories are still there + 17 arms in Tula and he's nobody's fool.

Hey ho. On a positive, there are very few fort markers in the screenie, and if a Frenchman on a horse can make it....................

[image]local://upfiles/35790/106A33BE5EDD497388BE6A46946C0C4A.jpg[/image]



Disgruntled Veteran -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/24/2016 11:22:54 PM)

So does isolating a city/urban do anything? For any amount of turns?

Also, iirc, You can heavily damage factories by attacking a city from the ground. Even if you don't capture Moscow I think you can trash the factories output for quite a while.



HITMAN202 -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/25/2016 1:10:24 AM)

I think Moscow will fall, lock, stock, and barrel. It looks bad, very bad for Brian. Where is the Moscow defense network ??? I think even if there was some semblance of an organized defense Sillyflower would take Moscow. But look what he faces .an array of Ruskies exercising a Chinese fire drill. It will be bloody. Three more turns of mayhem and if needed 3 more snow turns. With the AP's saved during the 4 mud turns how many HQBUP could be done ??? I might be wrong, but when Sillyflower falls asleep at night he is having very pleasant dreams of this AAR.

AGN was fun to watch (now 10 hexes of that front will be firmly held by the Finns), AGS a surge to Rostov (now probably contained), but AGC ??? It will be bloody.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/25/2016 6:28:12 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Disgruntled Veteran

So does isolating a city/urban do anything? For any amount of turns?

Also, iirc, You can heavily damage factories by attacking a city from the ground. Even if you don't capture Moscow I think you can trash the factories output for quite a while.


It's only units in urban that don't suffer the isolation drop in CV. 4 turns of being surrounded will reduce their CV through attrition. Units in cities suffer full isolation effects.

You are right about factory damage. However, capturing factories is like getting a dog. It is not just for Christmas, but for life.



timmyab -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/25/2016 9:56:25 AM)

Isolated units in urban hexes are losing about half their CV value in my 8.07 game. Air supply restores them close to full strength.
Have to agree with Hitman, it's starting to look like game set and match, 6-0 6-0 6-0 no less.



mktours -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/25/2016 10:33:32 AM)

Yes, it looks an overwhelming game. Sillyflower played excellently, so is his AAR.



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/25/2016 12:49:17 PM)

I'm not playing a noob and I'm well aware of what Brian can/will do in the winter and beyond. Just look at his AAR vs Pelton.

I don't really like playing Germans much - it's a lot more stressy than playing Russians: for me anyway. Russians can survive making more mistakes.



HITMAN202 -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/25/2016 7:20:27 PM)

Did the AGC FBD snafu really make a difference in your push to Moscow ??? I think it couldn't (and didn't) because your advance was slow and steady.

It would be interesting to see where the I Corp is in AGC's confusion. Is Model still in charge ??

Do you have any Corsican lineage ??



sillyflower -> RE: SILLY's SWANSONG NO BRIAN G (1/25/2016 8:33:00 PM)

I think the AGC FBD made a difference as I'm still 1 turn behind with the rail conversion.Took longer for the panzers to get back within 20 MPs of supply head which is crucial fuel + HQBUs. Still having an effect now but not so great. Perhaps cost me half a turn in the centre. Maybe it also affected Brian's play - ? made him feel Moscow was safer than it would have been, but who knows.

Model's 1 corps is at the top of the attack with Manstein's panzers. Impossible to tell apart from 9 Army though on this scale of picture, especially as it's buried under combat markers apart from 1 div immediately NW of the SS div. These 2 corps would not have got here any earlier without the FBD error, nor would the weak 2 PzG corps repatriated from AGS or 1 of the T12 pz xx reinforcement is also now part of that 2 PzG xxx. The drive to Moscow has really needed what amounts to an extra army. Probably amounts to 1/3rd of the combat strength of the schwerpunkt north of the Oka.

Having had to think about your FBD qu, he short answer is therefore probably that it made a difference if I just fail to get Moscow by a whisker, but not if the battle for Moscow has a different outcome either way.

The answer to your qu re how many HQBUs in the snow is that I will have enough APs for every pz xxx. Whether any will be worth doing is a different matter. If the Panzers are within short distance of rail head, they will have lots of fuel by then. If not, they would need HQBU on the 1st snow turn for that to be economic. I have no idea whether I would want to use APs for that purpose then anyway. Forts need to be built in the mud and probably a lot of army reorganisation will be needed too.

Finally no Corsican lineage that I'm aware of ( a little french Huguenot blood is the nearest) and the last regular soldier in the family was the only surviving officer from the charge of the Light Brigade. That's the family story, but I think that recent research has shown that there were several such survivors



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