RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (Full Version)

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obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (10/30/2016 12:43:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Seems to me the Japanese advantage in numbers is what is giving them disproportionate victories.


You might think so, but that isn't all of it. I've had even bigger numbers advantages, and the Allies best sweepers would still get 5:1 results. This is slightly different.

Numbers are critical, but the tests showed it was more complex than that, and it's been shown now through a number of turns here.



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 11:32:13 AM)

Recently I've gone back to some testing. I was going to post in the AAR but decided to add it here, since it makes sense as a follow-on to the previous low CAP tests.

Lokasenna suggested my n might not be high enough to really differentiate between certain setting combinations, so I decided to try some more extensive test of limited settings.

He was kind enough to help and offer a setting combination and some advice, also mentioning that the Japanese CAP had a fairly big numbers advantage in the previous tests.

I've set up new ones, tested three runs of a bunch of stuff, and then decided what to pursue for the longer tests of 20 runs through. Below are some results.

The setup has 2 x 25 plane P-47D2 and 2 x 25 plane P-47D25 groups sweeping at 42k. The CAP is 3 x 45 plane Japanese groups of various types.



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 11:46:28 AM)

Trial Test 1

All of these are from 4 hexes, PM to Lae, and are with the same groups and pilots. The only changes are which planes are at which altitude layer.

Frank Ki-84r - 34, 450 (max)
Tony Ki-100-I - 20k
Jack J2M5 - 10k

Adding it all up shows the Japanese not faring so well. One turn was great. One horrific. Overall still not bad for going against P-47s.

Japanese: 180
Allies: 84

2.14:1



[image]local://upfiles/37283/F3C2585CD91B4C87AD5EB19E4946F7E8.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 11:48:36 AM)

Trial Test 2

This is the following layering:

Jack J2M5 - 36,910 (max)
Frank Ki-84r - 20k
Tony Ki-100-I - 10k

The Japanese do slightly better with the Jack up high. Is it because it has a higher ceiling?

Japanese: 167
Allies: 96

1.74:1




[image]local://upfiles/37283/0E46B4DCA0364B9F999C75AD29191576.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 11:50:20 AM)

Trial Test 3

This is the following layering:

Frank Ki-84r - 34,450 (max)
Jack J2M5 - 20k
Tony Ki-100-I - 10k

With the Jack in the middle the score goes back a bit to the Allies.

Japanese: 186
Allies: 83

2.24:1


[image]local://upfiles/37283/36696EEC9173464D86A39157D8334893.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 12:47:42 PM)

Trial Test 4

For this test I used low CAP as I've been using for the past year in game. Three bands at 9k, 7k and 5k. Usually I put more manoeuvrable planes low with the best airframes and pilots high.

This is the following layering:

Frank Ki-84r - 9k
Tony Ki-100-I - 7k
Jack J2M5 - 5k

Japanese: 147
Allies: 122

1.20:1

[image]local://upfiles/37283/61178363AC394E67AB3EC56C9032A343.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 12:52:06 PM)

Trial Test 5

In this set I used 80 percent CAP to see if a higher percentage CAP is better n the same conditions. This might even be a bit worse than the 50 percent CAP in all of the other tests to far.

This is the following layering:

Frank Ki-84r - 34,450 (max)
Tony Ki-100-I - 20k
Jack J2M5 - 10k

Japanese: 194
Allies: 78

2.49:1

[image]local://upfiles/37283/ED9AAA58DC4D47039C08748D83C6E57C.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 12:58:27 PM)

Trial Test 6

In this one I decided to try a completely different set of planes on low CAP related to how I might use it in my current game (with airframes I was just about to get in production). Interesting that overall kill numbers are higher for both sides.

George N1K2 - 9k
Frank Ki-84b - 7k
Oscar IV - 5k

Japanese: 163
Allies: 134

1.22:1

[image]local://upfiles/37283/45F40388B3204D55991C543D355486FD.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 1:24:27 PM)

Trial Test 7

Here is a taster of smaller bombing run, well escorted, with the same sweeps and CAP tested earlier. I did this first with the low CAP setup, then with a higher layered CAP.

I'll only spam with the first part of the CR to show the ordering and CAP at each stage in the battle. [;)]

The key here seems to be that the first sweepers are crushed, then the CAP is strong for the first bombing run, and although a good number of airframes are hit on the round, the field is not closed and the following bombers without escort get nailed. More Allied planes are destroyed overall than Japanese.

George N1K2 - 9k
Frank Ki-84b - 7k
Oscar IV - 5k

Japanese: 220
Allies: 249

1:1.13

[image]local://upfiles/37283/E14A2196E67944D6B486883D7B79A164.jpg[/image]
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Aug 17, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lae , at 99,126

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 45
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 36
Ki-84b Frank x 45

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 7 destroyed (even though the the D25 come first they still get nailed here!)

CAP engaged:
Genzan Ku R-2 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 24 on standby, 9 scrambling)
12 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 9000 and 35300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 30 minutes
900th Sentai with Ki-84b Frank (0 airborne, 24 on standby, 9 scrambling)
12 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 7000 and 34450.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
17th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (0 airborne, 20 on standby, 7 scrambling)
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 36811.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 35 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lae , at 99,126

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 43,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 44
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 32
Ki-84b Frank x 39

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 5 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 7 destroyed

CAP engaged:
Genzan Ku R-2 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 9 scrambling)
15 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 8000 and 35300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 35 minutes
900th Sentai with Ki-84b Frank (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 8 scrambling)
15 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 34450.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 41 minutes
17th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 3 scrambling)
13 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 36811.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 36 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lae , at 99,126

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 37
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 24
Ki-84b Frank x 36

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 15
B-25C Mitchell x 15
B-25C Mitchell (FM) x 36
P-40K Warhawk x 50

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84b Frank: 20 damaged
Ki-84b Frank: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed on ground
N1K5-J George: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIb Tojo : 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed on ground
A6M3 Zero: 1 destroyed on ground
J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed on ground
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-61-II KAI Tony: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-27b Nate: 1 destroyed on ground
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed on ground
A6M5 Zeke: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 3 damaged
B-25C Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
B-25C Mitchell (FM): 2 destroyed, 3 damaged
P-40K Warhawk: 4 destroyed

Japanese ground losses:
6 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 5
Runway hits 22

Aircraft Attacking:
30 x B-25C Mitchell (FM) bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-25C Mitchell (FM) bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
12 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
12 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
Genzan Ku R-2 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 12 scrambling)
25 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 11000 and 41811.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 51 minutes
11 planes vectored on to bombers
900th Sentai with Ki-84b Frank (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 9 scrambling)
13 plane(s) not yet engaged, 10 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 6000 and 40811.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 41 minutes
8 planes vectored on to bombers
17th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 6 scrambling)
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 5 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 39811.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
2 planes vectored on to bombers



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 1:27:49 PM)

Trial Test 8

Here is with the higher layered CAP against the same sweep/bombing setup. Here fewer Japanese are downed and hit on the ground, but many fewer Allied planes lost.

A lot of scrambling and CAP in the air, but maybe too spread out in the layers?

Frank Ki-84r - 34,510 (max)
Jack J2M5 - 20k
Tony Ki-100-I - 10k

Japanese: 278
Allies: 140

1.99:1

[image]local://upfiles/37283/430826CA70E0493EBB66D1D86DEA7436.jpg[/image]
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Aug 17, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lae , at 99,126

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 45
Ki-84r Frank x 45
Ki-100-I Tony x 45

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 6 destroyed

CAP engaged:
Chitose Ku K-1 with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 22 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 36910.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 30 minutes
13th Sentai with Ki-100-I Tony (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 22 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 36090.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 36 minutes
1000th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 22 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 34450 , scrambling fighters between 34000 and 34450.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 3:02:30 PM)

Full Test 1

This is a test of the best of the high layered CAP run 20 times. The second run of ten included two incidences of sweeps cooperating (multiple groups arriving at once) which reduced overall kill number while increasing the ratio toward the Allies. I keep these in as this is part of the chance dice rolls involved, where no other factors had changed.

Jack J2M5 - 36,910 (max)
Frank Ki-84r - 20k
Tony Ki-100-I - 10k


IJ _ 1055 (533_1-10) (522_11-20)

ALLIES _ 400 (217_1-10) (183_11-20)

覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧

Ratio:Totals _ 2.63:1 (2.45:1) (2.85:1)



[image]local://upfiles/37283/2F106C6A7EBA4F6581BEC7BF202B829E.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 3:03:48 PM)

The ones with very low Allied loss numbers are the cooperating sweeps.

[image]local://upfiles/37283/C25288AEF6F94FB091ABA2268EE231A1.jpg[/image]



rustysi -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (3/9/2017 9:54:20 PM)

quote:

The Japanese do slightly better with the Jack up high. Is it because it has a higher ceiling?


I'd say climb rate. Jack has one of the highest climb rates of all Japanese fighters.



Alamander -> RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1 (9/21/2020 7:13:22 PM)

wrong thread.



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