brian brian -> RE: TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY (6/26/2016 4:40:25 PM)
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Sure, the Nationalists are needed in the south, no question. Though the campaign there will be on pause for the most part during Monsoon season, it does take the Chinese a long time to move around inside their country. Before the mountain hex was evacuated, the Japanese had only one hex to attack Sian from, across a river. Now they have two hexes and can perhaps try a direct assault, probably only realistic if they were lucky to flip all the defenders first. Really they need 3 hexes to get a good attack, which is generally true everywhere in WiF. But they had no option at all to try it from only the one hex. Anyhow, the odds they take the mountain hex without flipping were pretty low. Yes, they could take the hex and kill whatever is in the hex, but it would not be easy, even with just one defending unit - and two were definitely available. Thus the 'one turn' comment - now they can use the rest of the May/Jun turn to try and get a 3rd hex on Sian, instead of a second. If they take a 3rd hex, Sian will fall in Jul/Aug or Sep/Oct. Or they can just start sending in their bombers on air impulses until the defenders are all flipped (what I would do right here, possibly, though the Japanese look low on bombers), as Mao is not available to re-org. Also they might just try a direct assault immediately, before the ChiComms can bring up a 3rd defender. Holding the mountain hex might have helped the Chinese hold Sian through the rest of the summer of 1940. Here is another way to look at it - pretend you are the Japanese commander. If you asked him if he would want to have that hex for free, what would the answer be? It is rarely good strategy to do what your enemy wishes you would do. There is a time for the Chinese to retreat and there is a time for them to trade in a unit(s) for time. Sian is an automatic Build Point per turn for the Chinese - that's 2 INF / year, well worth fighting for. Fortunately for them, the Japanese have hardly been resolute in pushing towards such a key hex as they wander around here and there in central China instead. And now the Chinese have to make this exact same decision all over again with the mountain hex to the south-east of Sian....which was also previously protected by the mountain hex just given up.
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