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warspite1 -> RE: 4 player E-mail: AAR (5/2/2016 9:34:37 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: rkr1958
I don't think I've ever seen France fall in 1939. Even if the axis go all out from the get-go, how frequent does that happen?
warspite1
When you think about what needs to happen, I think its clear that it will be very seldom. e.g:
1. The Axis need to have the balls to chose a France first strategy in the first place
2. The weather needs to stay fine (or at least fine enough) at the right time (nothing more frustrating than being hit by great weather after all your units are face down - except perhaps not even getting the chance to attack because of Snow, Blizzard and/or a lack of impulses).
3. Of course the way the mechanics work, the weather staying fine will increase the chances of increasing turn length - although there is always the possibility of low dice ending the turn sooner than expected regardless
4. The dice need to be just kind enough in the right places - that can mean a number of things of course in many areas - both Axis and Allied.
5. Mistakes (both Axis and Allied in the heat of battle). Of course this can be a contentious point i.e. what is a mistake? Thankfully most people that contribute to this forum realise that life is full of greys and rarely blacks and white. The set-up in Belgium has been mentioned as a "mistake" but those that like to spout this, don't then say for example that the French did the right thing and played the % in Alsace or the Chinese the same against Mao. Here of course had the Allies done the "riskier thing" and gone for Assault the result would have been better for both, but by playing the %, and going for Blitz (to try and preserve the French unit and Mao on map) the outcome was actually worse for them. Mistake or sensible choice in the circumstances?
One thing that is clear is that this strategy is really tempting if playing with oil. The French have only one oil to spend in Nov/Dec. By forcing the French to use their HQ and air force - by threatening early - and supporting this with an Italian declaration of war - so forcing the French into using their fleet, the French simply cannot afford to reorganise the TRS - which leaves key units such as the Senegal militia in Africa.
There are still plenty of downsides to this strategy - even with oil - to ensure this is not a "no-brainer" by any means - but playing with oil definitely makes it even more worthy of consideration. But I mentioned balls above, and this applies not just because of the weather, the combat dice rolls and the turn length going against the Axis, but also - and most importantly - the US Entry hits that an early attack (especially with advancement against Chinese cities also) can bring.
But back to this game, the Axis have been bold, made some good moves at times and ridden their luck at other times. You cannot win WIF without good fortune, but you can get good fortune and fail to take advantage. The Axis are where they are at the moment because they have made a good job of what they have handed to them - good and bad [&o].
But its early days and the Allies aren't quitting just yet [:)]
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