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Crackaces -> RE: 8MP: "The Dawn is surely Coming" (4/4/2019 4:33:03 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
I was watching some video clips on YouTube from the movie Moneyball and it draws some parallels with comments I see here. Some of you are acting as though it is business as usual for the Soviet side and it is anything but. The loss of Moscow has a huge ripple effect in terms of manpower. Of course I would defend the Caucasus if I had the manpower, but I do not, so I defend what I can. Soviet National Morale as of right now is 46 which means if Crackaces wants to go somewhere, he can. The best I can do right now is get in his way and slow him down. Even that entails risk and the price of guessing wrong even a few times can be fatal. The same thing goes for the air forces. So much was lost in the early going that without simply disappearing for 4-6 months, it is a steep hill to climb in getting back to a condition that resembles parity. Eventually I will get there, but it is just going to take time.
I have a great amount of respect for M60 to continue this game. I am suspecting it will follow the Stef/Stelteck game.
However, there are some differences. For example, during the 1st winter I spent a lot of TO&E to impede the Soviet winter offense. That will never recover as the weekly casualties equal the weekly available manpower. Now as the complete commander I have choice words for the old AGC commander who has spent a lot for little gain.
M60 started turn 55 with a bunch of units surrounded near Rostov. The prior Soviet commander stacked forces on the Don without depth. Once the Don was breached it was "Katy bar the door". I think it might have been better on turn 53 (pre-M60 having total command) to have had depth at a cost of a higher probability that Don would be breached but isolation less likely. That said, M60 took over an impossible situation that he is making lemonade out of lemons.
M60 has built a line of Guards at fort level 3 behind rivers that has 3 very significant problems for the Germans:
1. The CV (non-alt) is so great that even at 3 hex junctions infantry and hvy artillery find it difficult to break. In one case elite infantry and Nebelweffers got a 2.06:1 at a high cost in devices. I spent all my armor MP's to clear out a very small salient.
2. Armor can get enough CV to move a stack of Guards units, but the costs in disruption, and MP's means that the adjusted CV is not better than the Infantry.
3. In the center There are multiple rivers to cross where the Soviets can build these "walls of Guards"
M60 speaks of "fatal" but from my perspective it is more a setback for the Soviets. The Soviets took my Gambit at the Oka river (I had very weak forces on the Para river Oka river junction) and used some good units to smash weak Germans. In response the Germans isolated the attack. The problem was that the Guards units blocking did not have good fort levels or position so in some cases I could Hasty attack at at excellent initial CV levels supported by SU's (HQ had not moved) that pretty much in my mind was a duplicate of the real life Second Battle of Kharkov. However, the price of this Gambit was 2 weeks of Soviet digging on the Tsna and soon river lines even further back.
M60 has a pretty good thrust at weak Germans near Tambov. It is a game of chicken to see who blinks first. I am continuing my armor thrust elsewhere while M60 continues to pressure a key rail junction and Tambov. At some point the Germans are going to run out of units with enough TO&E to move Soviet units. When that is reached offenses like at Tambov will turn into an armored defense in depth and the Germans will be retreating back to Berlin.
There was a turn of mud that delayed strategic air missions, and the Germans are taking some fair losses in the air at this point. One reason for clearing out the west bank of the Tsna is positioning staging bases to strike at Gorky. I do not have any idea of the effects of the campaign strategically. Except that the Germans will continue a strategic air campaign as long as possible.
The great thing is that we will have another AAR that goes to the end that players can take notes for their next game. Not just another game that ends early to late '42. I wished Sillyflower would have continued his game vs BrainG as we would have learned a lot about how far the Soviets can come back.
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