RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review

RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review (Full Version)

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Crackaces -> RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review (4/22/2019 4:10:41 PM)
TURN 58: With the controversy surrounding the U2VS factories I thought I would point out that Stalin has ordered the maximum effort to defend the precious aircraft platforms. [:D] [image]local://upfiles/38979/E3A5F32CCBAC4BABAAAC2E03001E84D7.jpg[/image] AIR war update: Korten has been reassigned to FKIV and has for turns been arranging the massive fuel lift to 1st Panzer army who was snatching hexes for the Fatherland. After bombing the Gorky fighter factory last turn, it is very well defended now. That means the Germans will need to get Gorky within fighter range. Unescorted bombing would be disastrous. Now the 2nd and 3rd panzer armies will have an extended mission. The LW conducts its first bombing raid ever on the Urals - at Chkalov. A third cluster of fighter bases near Syzran has appeared and might be attackable! But alas ...mud means no real air war this turn. But maybe next turn? That will mean pulling out the bombers from reserve. The entire Luftwaffe level bomber force continues to upgrade - and the best Finnish fighter airgroups manually swapped to the longest range models. With Soviet airbases now leaving the Finnish move area completely the only chance for strategic action will be long distance fighter sweeps. Otherwise the Finnish airforce is tasked to tactical management of the JanisJarvi ..

Telemecus -> RE: 8MP Air War Review (4/22/2019 4:26:18 PM)
I make that 8 stacked airbases with fighters to provide cover for the U2VS factory? Nothing betrays M60A3TTS' intentions to that factory more than the facts [:'(]

Crackaces -> RE: 8MP Air War Review (4/22/2019 4:31:42 PM)
One can see from the above posting that the North sector is mud this turn. That means the whole AGC front is grounded to a halt. So this turn is devoted to reorganization of the German Army. 149 units listed under German infantry -10 indep regiments -10 due to 5 being broken down to brigades =129 infantry divisions There are 7 armies to contain German units. 16,18,9,4,2,17,6 = 7 armies -10 indep regiments -10 due to 5 being broken down to brigades =129 infantry divisions 16,18,9,4,2,17,6 = 7 armies 713=91 divisions We will devote the 11th army for mountain and cavalry units to address the Caucasus Mountains. There are 4 independent corps 43= 12 divisions assigned on the Oka river Finnish = 10 German divisions assigned in the North. More indep corps = XII plus spares from 4th and 6th - also ViFn =3*3=9 total=122 Divisions Panzer armies have space for 9 more infantry (5 are already in them) The decision is to use 8 Italian Army for North just below the Finns. The below picture also shows the front. There is a huge salient that will be the major source of conflci the coming turns. [image]local://upfiles/38979/DFCF2D5905F741E9A91E1D7E5961FBD0.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: 8MP Air War Review (4/22/2019 4:45:32 PM)
Turn 58: I want to show the Caucasus in detail at turn 58. The Soviets have responded. The goal is to draw the Soviets into a fight down here with the thoughts that the Soviets do not have the Manpower to spare. In addition, the Germans have moved cavalry units into position. These units can move quickly in the open clear terrain and shift momentum very quickly. The mountain units obviously have an advantage in both mobility and CV's in the rough terrain. [image]local://upfiles/38979/0010A217E71C4032BF1AEE3F883C4E0E.jpg[/image]

Elessar2 -> RE: 8MP Air War Review (4/22/2019 6:52:34 PM)
Very unconventional strategy of defending Grozny while leaving the road to Astrakhan wide open (for the moment)...

Crackaces -> RE: 8MP Air War Review (4/22/2019 11:28:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Elessar2 Very unconventional strategy of defending Grozny while leaving the road to Astrakhan wide open (for the moment)... First, that is what I see -- there could (and I suspect) more forces hidden. The swamps for example constrain recon effectiveness. We are on turn 64 and this gap still exists. M60 is covering Astrakhan through a Gambit at the moment. I can't reach in one turn in force and if I get too far extended he has the forces to isolate. As it is I isolate Soviets … The Soviets have a huge problem on turn 64... so I am not sure how many units that could be allocated to such an effort .. [image]local://upfiles/38979/6B9AC69815C545B4969DD56948032D92.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE:"The Dawn is Surely Coming" (4/22/2019 11:47:51 PM)
Soviet Rail: Edit: corrected figures surmised from turn 1. Actual railyard factory point = 500 railcap I think it is worth at this point to start discussing Soviet Railyard resources. A look at a beginning Soviet 1941 campaign shows that the Soviets start with 306 railyard points and 76,500 rail cap. A little algebra shows that each rail point equals 250 railcap points on the first turn. Every turn after than each railyard factory point = 500 railcap points. There are a couple of interesting problems in this game. 1. Most of the railyard points are located in Moscow (32), Leningrad (20), baku (18), Saratov (15), Stalingrad (12) Gorky (10) Kharkov (8) …. One can see that 20% of the railyard points are located in the big three cities now in possession of the Germans. Actually, most of the major railyard factories are in possession by the Germans. Stalingrad remains a huge objective (spoiler .. it is in the German hands now). 2. A lot of railyard factories are located in towns in (1) and (2). This is an interesting problem because the game makes it easier to hit factories of (1) than (18). So quietly since about turn 45 the Germans have been bombing railyards. 3. After grabbing hexes in the Caucasus .. the Germans turn North while endangering an aircraft factory in Gorky from the air. So what is the plan? Fundamentally force the Soviets to make decisions about rail use. Either rail units or factories. The Germans have focused on rail to reduce the ability of the Soviets to react. Although M60 is defending on the Volga and units can walk to destinations the Caucasus is not so easy to walk to in one turn.

Kantti -> RE: RE:"The Dawn is Surely Coming" (4/23/2019 6:13:21 AM)
Soviet railcap is more likely near 150k in start of 1941. It is quirked in couple of first turns, but then stabilizes (after initial losses) to around 135-140k....

Crackaces -> RE: RE:"The Dawn is Surely Coming" (4/23/2019 2:57:41 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Kantti Soviet railcap is more likely near 150k in start of 1941. It is quirked in couple of first turns, but then stabilizes (after initial losses) to around 135-140k.... Thank you! I have corrected the prior post. 1 Railyard factory = 500 railcap points. I estimate between 140-150 railyard factories? for about 70K railcap. (Spreadsheet in progress.) An armor corps = 3200~ railcap A Guards division 2400~ Armor Brg 1500~ So about 21 armored units could be put on the rails .. 29 divisions .. NOW back to turn 58 ..

HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: RE:"The Dawn is Surely Coming" (4/23/2019 3:18:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces quote: ORIGINAL: Kantti Soviet railcap is more likely near 150k in start of 1941. It is quirked in couple of first turns, but then stabilizes (after initial losses) to around 135-140k.... Thank you! I have corrected the prior post. 1 Railyard factory = 500 railcap points. I estimate between 140-150 railyard factories? for about 70K railcap. (Spreadsheet in progress.) An armor corps = 3200~ railcap A Guards division 2400~ Armor Brg 1500~ So about 21 armored units could be put on the rails .. 29 divisions .. NOW back to turn 58 .. I know you don't read my posts but maybe someone else can let you know that your ~estimate is not correct for an Armor Corps. Too low.

M60A3TTS -> RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review (4/23/2019 5:21:46 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces The entire Luftwaffe level bomber force continues to upgrade - and the best Finnish fighter airgroups manually swapped to the longest range models. The entire Luftwaffe is involved in its own Götterdämmerung. [image]https://i.imgur.com/odEav9p.jpg[/image]

M60A3TTS -> RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review (4/23/2019 5:28:49 PM)
Upgrade this: [image]https://i.imgur.com/s7yW2Ut.jpg[/image]

Telemecus -> RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review (4/23/2019 5:36:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS Upgrade this: [image]https://i.imgur.com/s7yW2Ut.jpg[/image] I recognise many of those - you may want to check their withdrawal dates in the Scenario data first. [;)] If they are just coming up to their withdrawal turn and replacements are off (as they were from turn 2 or 3 to 54) they are just about where they should be. If Aces is doing what I used to do, you can bet the oldest fighters (109Es) are in the next groups to withdraw.

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review (4/23/2019 5:37:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS Upgrade this: [image]https://i.imgur.com/s7yW2Ut.jpg[/image] quote: Götterdämmerung I had to look up Götterdämmerung :) No flak in this area .. a mistake on turn 64 .. (Just to update the reader as we bounce between turns). It looks like quite a few damaged aircraft overall ...

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 58 8MP Air War Review (4/23/2019 7:36:43 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces The entire Luftwaffe level bomber force continues to upgrade - and the best Finnish fighter airgroups manually swapped to the longest range models. The entire Luftwaffe is involved in its own Götterdämmerung. [image]https://i.imgur.com/odEav9p.jpg[/image] A far more interesting data point (to me) in this picture is an increase of 59,284 in total manpower (and an increased in non-disabled manpower) after a loss of 89,724. I assume some of the 42K disabled came back into service and manpower replenishment. Still 5.3M total manpower at turn 64 means we are still within our strategic objective of keeping the Soviet Union below 6.1M. For the reader, a read through this AAR and you will find that I believe that 6.1M is the magical number where the Soviets have enough to cover the front and extra to spend on offenses. Below this number and the Soviets lack enough manpower to cover the front adequately. The reader should know that M60 is taking over at a point where many thought the game was a lost cause. M60 is putting up a good fight. Where my worldview stems is that the front extends from 89,15 to about 165,108 and some frontage as far south as 161,127 but for general purposes let us assume straight lines for a moment. There are about 93 hexes of North-South give or take a few and the front extends about 76 hexes deep. Not all of this frontage is engaged. And in fact the Soviets are making decisions of where to defend. But let us just assume the 93 hexes in a straight line. A division takes about 7,000 men. So about 651,000 men makes a layer 93 hexes long. One layer does not do the trick. Technically the Soviets could make a layer 8 deep. Some of the 5.3M are support people. One other thing to consider is mixed in are Corps which take 3 units to form. If you want to push the German divisions back you need Corps. Looking at AAR's it appears that 6.1M is a point where the Soviet can build Corps and still have enough stuff to cover the front. We shall see .. the Germans have extended themselves .. on turn 64 we are threatening Saratov...

Crackaces -> Turn 59: The Dawn is Surely Coming (4/23/2019 11:37:36 PM)
AIR WAR: 8 partisan strikes - a huge uplift in number! All too late and in the wrong place - I would be worried if that started happening in the Caucasus though. . For the moment our fighters are mostly G2's with a range one less than F4. What this means is that Gorky and Syrzan airbases are difficult to engage without extending a staging airbase one hex more forward. The bomber force needs more time in reserve. This turn there is only one hex near Syzran for a fighter sweep. The Gorky defense looked very interesting. They had one air base defending Gorky, with another airbase further back defending that airbase and so on backwards in a chain. This would present a very difficult problem to break except with a big up front brute force attack. The Germans took notice that Saratov bases have moved so far back they are almost in the Urals. The diagram below shows the functional specification for an attack to extend air power toward Gorky. In some ways I think this might confuse the Soviets. The German attacks would head north-northeast and then southeast, then northeast with each opportunity to bomb a target. Air frames in Gorky are a top priority. [image]local://upfiles/38979/D3D48B0D52604EEB8F0310CC76C2F792.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 59: The Dawn is Surely Coming (4/23/2019 11:45:27 PM)
Rail Plan The Caucasus are invaded at great peril. There is a single rail line supporting Mountain Units advancing to snatch hexes, ports, and railyards. The real key is how fast can the Germans advance and supply forces? M60 has put up quite a defense in saleint in the center. 2nd, 3rd. and 4th Panzer Armies are faced up with Guards units with many of these units dug in. So it takes all my armor to move a stack of defensive CV 75-85. Firepower does not balance the situation as M60 has created art units to add firepower to the fray. So with the slow advance the FDB's are railed south to build a railroad as quick as feasible. Often multiple hexes as bends in the rail are within the 3 hexes of the rail head. Then there is working on two rail heads at once. The picture is truly 1,000 words. The impending disaster is if a partisan cuts the rail ... [image]local://upfiles/38979/26595D4D92EC464BA5C27A6856361274.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 59: The Dawn is Surely Coming (4/23/2019 11:51:39 PM)
JANISJAARVI The JanisJaarvi has been pretty silent right up to this turn. The thought is once the Soviets dig in it cannot be broken. But the Finns have some airpower, SU's and a new armored unit. The plan of attack is enclosed below. On turn 59 the Finn's breakthrough! [image]local://upfiles/38979/DB5454B452BE4377BE31832E6EE23C51.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 59: The Dawn is Surely Coming (4/23/2019 11:53:51 PM)
With much sadness the German High command notes that the U2VS factory on the way to Stalingrad is mostly destroyed. Stalin will be most displeased. [image]local://upfiles/38979/B8DD7F393B044B809318B07401B1136D.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (4/24/2019 12:03:01 AM)
1st Panzer Army Reverses course One of the moves on turn 59 was to re-stage the 1st Panzer Army from the Caucasus to just south of Stalingrad. The plan is to cross the Volga and clear out the Southeast banks and cut the rail to the Caucasus. The map below shows the thrust across the Volga on turn 60. Follow this army carefully as it is a part of a much larger strategic plan highlighted in post 1056 above. 2&3rd Panzer Armies could join and isolate 1/3 of the Soviet Army. [image]local://upfiles/38979/0BB2887940914DD68B997638ED40C872.jpg[/image]

Telemecus -> RE: Turn 59: The Dawn is Surely Coming (4/24/2019 8:54:02 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces With much sadness the German High command notes that the U2VS factory on the way to Stalingrad is mostly destroyed. Stalin will be most displeased. [image]local://upfiles/38979/B8DD7F393B044B809318B07401B1136D.jpg[/image] Theory 1 - M60A3TTS really does not like U2VS and always wanted to evacuate their factories - but just "forgot" for 58 turns Theory 2 - M60A3TTS really does like U2VS, but is in the closet and in denial and so had to be reminded and berated until he was bullied into moving them to destruction Theory 3 - It is another "fat finger" mistake I think we can all agree 1 is out, my money is on 2 but Stalin thinks 3. He has ordered an upgraded finger exercise regime. [image]local://upfiles/53894/93F384773EE542A8943C191BD22834CB.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 2:04:38 PM)
Right now I have just delivered turn 65 to M60. From turn 60 to turn 65, so far this has been two heavyweight prize fighters slugging it out. M60 is making the best from a depleted air force and manpower hovering around 5.1M in the field. Before describing turn 60 I want to post about intelligence. I believe all GG games emphasize the details. The more detailed the player -- the more likely they are a tough opponent. Over time I have come to realize that troop positions can be well ferreted out using recon and battle reports. Recon will likely show positions at a detect level 1-4. (Airfields go to 5). I have found that randomly units will pop up in places I just recon, so sometimes "spamming" can produce results. Results in places you had not recon before. Interdiction is a huge source of intelligence. Typically the target has a high level of detection for the mission to fly and the mission attacks a highly detected unit. Thus the battle report will likely (not always) have detailed information about the moving unit. I write this down on a map. Ground Attacks: Using airplanes to bomb units has drawbacks. It is pretty much assured that the commander is going to take a loss as ground attack does not do enough damage to equal aircraft losses. There is the fatigue factor previously discussed in this thread. Two ground attacks have been the difference in close battles. However, Ground attacks can be also be a real source of intelligence. First, rarely the ground attack increases detection level of a low detected unit. On rare occasions a detection 4 has risen high enough that I know the unit name in the battle report. The other source is numbers of destroyed men and devices. A brigade just does not give up 100 - 200 men to an air attack. You can feel pretty good that at least a corps is in in the target hex. Killing more AFV's than people might just indicated an armored corps. [:'(] Recon in force: This is pretty obvious, but on turn 65 I decided to probe from excellent defensive positions to find and account for Soviet units. I stumbled into a bees nest [:D] More on turn 60 coming up later ...

Zorch -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 6:43:19 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces Right now I have just delivered turn 65 to M60... For a moment I thought you delivered M-60 tanks. [image]local://upfiles/34241/79795966DA654E73938DA308A7447AB4.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 7:01:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Zorch quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces Right now I have just delivered turn 65 to M60... For a moment I thought you delivered M-60 tanks. [image]local://upfiles/34241/79795966DA654E73938DA308A7447AB4.jpg[/image] quote: M60A3TTS is the Soviet Commander [&o] [:D]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 7:25:21 PM)
I will fill the reader in eventually [;)] But on turn 65 the Germans make an end run to form a giant Kessel. This huge pocket will be easily broken and I suspect M60 will bring out everything he has to push the bridgehead across the Volga north of Saratov. The Soviets do break through on turn 63 and do much damage to the rail south of Stalingrad sacrificing really nothing as I rout the units back out of the pockets on turn 65. The Soviets destroy hundreds of transports and fuel depots. The Soviets also on turn 64 unleash their air force and destroy 300 fighters .. so this fight is reaching a crescendo for sure! [image]local://upfiles/38979/8363CDB62F414E8DBC039A5EDB760883.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 7:38:07 PM)
The screenshot below demonstrates why spending APs on reorganization is worth the investment. Here a brigade holding a river hex is reduced by 20% penalty because they are attached to OKH. In addition, the unit failed all their leadership die rolls and the CV is reduced to 15 in the end. The Soviets chalk up a cheap victory. The other problem is 200 men lost from a bunch of units is nothing compared to 200 lost from one brigade. Most of these losses are due to firepower. So the Soviets brought many guns to this affair while this unit has nothing attached as OKH is miles away. [image]local://upfiles/38979/0F64E0D8EE7D4EA89C799EF06CF225BA.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 7:39:43 PM)
This holds true for the Italians .. which will will soon learn can be routed out of the way and a point of break through .. [image]local://upfiles/38979/811FBA58A85A46878F8DCE18B8F3AC97.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 7:41:35 PM)
Around Moscow would be the worst place for a breakthrough .. so the Germans create independent corps and spend AP's to prevent penalties. [image]local://upfiles/38979/306822E25B104FFCAFEF2CA599FE8989.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 7:47:17 PM)
A discussion on strategy. The Kessel mentioned above really starts to develop on turn 60. There are lots of decisions to be made -- but one is what to do with 4th Panzer Army? One thought is as below. Pull them out and reinsert to cross the Volga. This would make smaller pac man type isolation. This would have prevented turn 63's disaster (spoiler alert!); However, in the end I thought that 4th Panzer Army needs to keep a front on the eventual Kessel ... That is threaten to divide and isolate by taking key rail heads. I do not execute this plan but instead keep inside of the Don river ... 2nd and 3rd Panzer Armies cut North to begin isolating the Guards units now North and West. Infantry units form a strong wall on the East of this small salient. This is a real threat to the Soviets. My thought is to take all hexes south of the Oka river here by hook and crook rather than slugging it out. [image]local://upfiles/38979/70744DD4D6BD44938FB0102AC36361D6.jpg[/image]

Crackaces -> RE: Turn 60: The Dawn is Surely Coming (5/6/2019 7:59:49 PM)
Turn 60 Stalingrad: This was a big turn for the Germans on the Stalingrad front. To take a urban hex like Stalingrad I propose you must isolate the target. Just walking up with big guns is expensive. Also notice the red units to the North of Stalingrad. There are strong units that need to be dealt with .. the other problem is the rail connection toward Baku. A single rail line runs along the Caspian Sea .. The Germans aim to cut this line and prevent the railing of reinforcements as cavalry units cut the lines at other places .. isolating all the Soviets on the Caspian Sea As you look at the map of turn 65 above -- crossing the Southeast of Stalingrad has big implications as this develops into a real threat to the Soviets [image]local://upfiles/38979/76A15946615145849640971A8B4CBA99.jpg[/image]

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