RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (Full Version)

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Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/15/2017 6:17:14 PM)

Turn eight



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/16/2017 1:45:25 PM)

Turn nine.



sillyflower -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/16/2017 2:35:41 PM)

As you demonstrated so clearly, counterattacking for the sake of it in '41 is too expensive nowadays, even if you win, to be worthwhile unless some higher purpose can be served such as removing a bridgehead over the Dnepr or doing something else worthwhile. It's not just the losses in the combat, but you will have many damaged elements as well massive fatigue. All your attacking units will therefore have significantly lower DV in your opponent's next turn.

The above does not matter much if you are winning easily so that eg guards' farming is worth doing and an aggressive approach put your defences at risk.



Hermann -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/16/2017 2:43:55 PM)

hey no fair. What about the 500 fighters I took out overrunning your airfields ? my crowning moment of the whole war +(. you got lucky in the pocket battle the initial breakthrough hex defended admirably and cost me the pocket



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/16/2017 3:10:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hermann
hey no fair. What about the 500 fighters I took out overrunning your airfields ? my crowning moment of the whole war +(. you got lucky in the pocket battle the initial breakthrough hex defended admirably and cost me the pocket


My main reaction when opening this turn was one of schock that you could break through as you did. Upon closer analysis, I was immensely relieved that you had not been able to advance just one more hex, as this would have effectively encircled the main part of the Western Front. I must admit to not paying much attention to what happened to my airfields at the time.

In hindsight, I think I must have probably lost somewhat less than 500 fighters at the time, as that would have meant me having almost 3 airfields overrun with nothing but damaged planes on them. But it is certainly true that I have had to take great care with how I structure my airforces in this game. My reserve pools are not climbing as fast as I would have liked them to.

In short, as I write the AAR according to the situation as I see it, I may not get everything right. The story is simply the story as I see it, and thus there is no "truth" in it, only my perception. So if I write something that is not fair, that is simply becasue I have made an inaccurate evaluation of things, not because I try to appear better than I am.



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/16/2017 3:23:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
As you demonstrated so clearly, counterattacking for the sake of it in '41 is too expensive nowadays, even if you win.


I did have a "higher purpose" with that attack by the Northwestern Front. If successfull, I would have sent a single division into the vacated hex and thus slowed the movement of any German Infantry pulling back in this area, in order to relocate to the cavalry breakthrough in the south.

It may not have been a wise "higher purpose", but my thinking was that I risked relatively little. I was very surprised that I lost 2000+ men, but even that loss was not nearly enough to risk the frontline or something similar.

Come next turns report, I am pretty sure there will be more news on the overall success of the Northwestern Front offensive (I wrote it, so I would know).



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/17/2017 2:35:45 PM)

Turn ten.



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/17/2017 2:57:32 PM)

Again a big thanks for your AAR as it contains many useful small tips you don't find in the general overview AARs.



ericv -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/17/2017 7:34:57 PM)

This game has evolved into an already very bad german position.



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/17/2017 8:16:14 PM)

I saw that you have a new secret weapon: A spreadsheet to calculate the enemy MPs. Excellent idea, I will try to unterstand your formula. You however should include the HQ position in your calculations.
If you don't say "No" soon enough I will write a Mail regarding this topic...



Hermann -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 2:15:28 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv

This game has evolved into an already very bad german position.

hmmm its actually going very well



Stelteck -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 7:30:06 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hermann
quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv

This game has evolved into an already very bad german position.

hmmm its actually going very well


[&o]
It is funny how a normal, quite historical progress is seen as "very bad" for the german nowadays [:D]
Good luck both of you have fun !!



Stelteck -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 11:41:52 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

I saw that you have a new secret weapon: A spreadsheet to calculate the enemy MPs. Excellent idea, I will try to unterstand your formula. You however should include the HQ position in your calculations.
If you don't say "No" soon enough I will write a Mail regarding this topic...


Very interesting. I looked at the formula too.
The problem is, how to evaluate the amount of supply dump the HQ have ? HQ are a supply source for units too.
Looks like the formula works only compared to railroad.



ericv -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 12:34:15 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Stelteck


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hermann
quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv

This game has evolved into an already very bad german position.

hmmm its actually going very well


[&o]
It is funny how a normal, quite historical progress is seen as "very bad" for the german nowadays [:D]
Good luck both of you have fun !!


[:D][:D][:D] Sometimes it is hard to convey sarcasm properly electronically.. but basically it is exactly what I meant.
Hermann is playing properly compared to historical standards. But as the current 'Soviet in-game post 1942'- strength is mostly based on total annihilation of the soviet forces in 1941 and 1942, it just means that Hermann for current game standards is already behind the curve.

Judging from Dinglir's play against Pelton he will be taking over the offensive in 1942.

Don't get me wrong, i am not trying to take anything away from Hermann's skill, but the game has become just too asymmmetrical.
An overpwered germany must result in an overpowered Soviet union from 1942 on, otherwise the SHC has no chance at all against even improper german play . But if the german doesn't play for that annihilation in 1941, they will be facing the overpwered Soviets much much sooner.







Stelteck -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 12:40:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv
[:D][:D][:D] Sometimes it is hard to convey sarcasm properly electronically


[:D]
Yeaa especially with dumb non native english speaker like me [:D]



ericv -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 12:49:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Stelteck


quote:

ORIGINAL: ericv
[:D][:D][:D] Sometimes it is hard to convey sarcasm properly electronically


[:D]
Yeaa especially with dumb non native english speaker like me [:D]



YOu are not dumb at all. you understood what I meant. :-)



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 2:58:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Stelteck


quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

I saw that you have a new secret weapon: A spreadsheet to calculate the enemy MPs. Excellent idea, I will try to unterstand your formula. You however should include the HQ position in your calculations.
If you don't say "No" soon enough I will write a Mail regarding this topic...


Very interesting. I looked at the formula too.
The problem is, how to evaluate the amount of supply dump the HQ have ? HQ are a supply source for units too.
Looks like the formula works only compared to railroad.



Its not about dumps in the HQ. Its about the position of the HQ relative to the railhead and the units.
Railhead-HQ-unit.
1) Railhead-HQ: 20 Hexagons; HQ-unit 5 Hexagons
2) Railhead-HQ: 25 Hexagons; HQ-unit: 0 Hexagons
1) and 2) have both the same distance to the railhead seen from the unit but according to my tests 1 will give more fuel to the unit. The effect is not extremely big but significant, around 2-6MPs if I remember correctly.
As I understand the table, this is not included so far. Once I have some spare time I will dig into this matter. It would be interesting which/whether Dinglir has run tests and what his assumptions are based on. First Understanding Dinglirs Formulas (which seem to feature some excellent excel skills) is the first step.




Stelteck -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 3:12:56 PM)

Could you explain me why dumps are irrelevant ?

According to my understanding of rules, if the HQ have enough dumps, the HQ will be able to fully supply a close (5hex/20mps) combat units even if the HQ is far away (but not too far, like no more than 25hex/100Mps) from railhead. (But as the HQ will not be able to reload with efficiency, it will work only 1/2 turns and after that there will be no reserve/dumps left).




EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 3:25:35 PM)

Dumps are important but this is another aspect which is not included in the table so far.
My point simply is not about dumps, but about HQ position.



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 6:13:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Stelteck
HQ are a supply source for units too.


You are right of course, and I will need to add this to the forumla.

Reading the updated manual 20.4.2, it seems that a given combat unit will either receive from the HQ OR (not "and") directly through rail. As I read the rules, the benefit seems to be that the HQ can be five hexes closer to the railhead and yet ensure the same amount of fuel being delivered. the HQ may receive more than needed by its units, but that supply is not directly transferrred to its subject divisions (it will be on subsequent turns).

That would change the distance modifier to (10/IF(distance<15;10;distance-5)) if I assume the perfect placement of a corps HQ five hexes closer to the railhead.

Similarly, the MP modifier should be changed to (25/IF(MP*(distance-5)/distance<25;25;MP*(distance-5)/distance)). This assumes that the hex cost as the supply travels from the railhead is evenly distribuited by hexes travelled. Not correct, but maybe the best that can be assumed.

Above, "distance" is the distance from the division to its nearest railhead, while "MP" is the MP cost for the division to its nearest railhead.

I think this may be good enough, as there are several other major "faults" in the formula I have written: I actually have no idea of the German Vehicle pool size (so I generally assume it is "1" for fully equipped) and I also assume that a fuel soft factor of "<= 41%" actually means 41%.

Finally, I might add a "Possible HQBU" warning for divisions closer to a railhead than 15 hexes (5 to HQ and 10 from HQ to railhead).

I am wondering however, how supply travels from the HQ to the forward division. There should be a huge difference bewteen travelling for five plains hexes in the summer and five swamp hexes in EZoC during the blizzard. How do I model this?

I am really tired as I write this, so I may very well be getting it wrong.

PS. Ewald, you should have been credited for spotting the error of my formual as well.



Hermann -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/18/2017 6:32:27 PM)

my problem is that up till this game ive largely ignored siuplly im being forced to take a lot more care. historically the german supply network was a disaster from as early as the 1936 condor Legion and was a constant series of improvisations throughout the war - I factor that inbto my play to balance the game mechanics.. unfortunately mr Dinglr wont allow that.



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/21/2017 6:25:25 PM)

Turn eleven.



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/22/2017 4:28:44 PM)

Turn twelwe.



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/22/2017 9:22:27 PM)

Turn thirteen.



Hermann -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/24/2017 10:23:55 PM)

no turn 14 AAR ? =(



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/26/2017 5:06:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hermann

no turn 14 AAR ? =(


I do have AAR's for every turn ready.

As I bundle all the mud turns into one AAR, I plan to release turn 14 when the first snow turn arrives.



Hermann -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/26/2017 7:51:41 PM)

evil man im drooling here



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/26/2017 8:12:11 PM)

Look at it this way:

Turn 18: Mud. Front doesn't move. I do a little bit of bombing.
Turn 19: Mud. Front doesn't move. I do a little bit of bombing.
Turn 20: Mud. Front doesn't move. I do a little bit of bombing.

Do you really think that is worth three seperate AAR's? [:)]



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/28/2017 8:27:30 PM)

Turn fourteen.



Dinglir -> RE: Hermann (Axis) Vrs Dinglir (Soviet) - Hermann welcome (4/29/2017 2:46:01 PM)

Turn fifteen.



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