|
WingedIncubus -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (8/30/2017 2:02:03 PM)
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: warspite1
Yes but surely 'Serbian intrigue' didn't start World War I. There had been plenty of Balkan incidents and even Balkan wars. One can argue Sarajevo was a catalyst, but there was much, much, that had to happen before a world war developed. Germany, rightly or wrongly depending on one's point of view, 'picked up the tab' because they gave Austria-Hungary the blank cheque - without which AH would have had to back down - or at least take less drastic measures against Serbia.
The 'blank cheque' given by Germany was under the assumption that Austria invades Serbia and occupy Sarajevo immediately and quickly, like now, before Russia could even prepare to mobilize. Occupation, not annexation. This was made very clear to Count Szőgyény-Marich by both Kaiser Wilhelm and Bethmann-Hollweg, but the Count was a very old geezer who most probably over-exaggerated Germany's support in his report back to Vienna. It was not a "blank cheque" to send Europe into a total war.
Such a reasoning was not bad, from a brinksmanship point-of-view: Austria did have the casus belli - after all, everyone in the know had a sense Serbia was involved, some way or another, in assassinating Franz Ferdinand and the country had the reputation of being a rogue state anyway. They were arguably justified to intervene against Serbia, but what other Great Powers did not want was Austria annexing Serbia. Never Russia would be allowing being cheated again like they had been in 1908's Bosnian Crisis: They had made been to look like total buffoons because of Count Isvolsky's reckless negotiating and because of this had Bosnia snatched right under their nose. Russia backing down again would be disastrous for Nicholas II's government.
Acting now would put Europe in face of an fait accompli, no one would go to all-out war for Serbia, Serbia is not annexed yet, and then the Kaiser could organize a peace conference to settle the Serbian issue once and for all while mollifying Russia away from France. What a coup it would have been for Germany! That is why the Kaiser was so incensed when he came back urgently from his vacation in Norway - not only the Austrians were not even close to Sarajevo, but they had sent an ultimatum that painted Austria as the warmonger in Europe, which got the British to intervene (the last thing the Kaiser wanted) while allowing time to Russia to bring in troops and posture that they will defend Serbia.
The closer Germany got to all-out war, the more frenzied the Kaiser became to have it remain a limited conflict. However, the machine of mobilization tables is merciless and uncompromising.
|
|
|
|
