RE: Notes from a Small Island (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (12/20/2018 9:57:49 PM)

Erik is on vacation for a few weeks, so no posts until probably around New Years.



BillBrown -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (12/20/2018 10:11:20 PM)

Oops, I think you got this post in the wrong thread Dan.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (12/20/2018 10:28:12 PM)

Redacted. Thanks, Bill Brown.



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (12/22/2018 5:25:11 AM)

He might not have his search aircraft flying that far so they don't get shot down. Simply check the DL on the subs to see where there are searches.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (12/29/2018 5:15:29 PM)

3/24/45

Erik has returned from a long trip halfway around the world. He was gone long enough (two weeks), that I've lost my rhythm. I know the major things going on but I don't know which aircraft squadrons were hot, which were tired, which bombing targets seemed unlikely to be defended, etc. It'll take awhile to nudge the rhythm back into place.

NoPac: Two big bombardment TFs targeted Onnekotan on the eve of the invasion. Tomorrow, 1st Marine Div. goes in, along with two arty units. That's not much, but I'm hoping that supplies will be low, disruption high, and that frequent bombardments will be enough. When Onnekotan falls - could be a few days, could be weeks - I'll turn my attention to Shikotan, which is lightly defended. There will also be a reinforcing landing at Paramushiro. Then, in ten days or so, I'll proceed with the big withdrawal from Kushiro, the final step before The Next Next Big Thing.

Japan: Weather prevented a manpower strike on Sapporo. I'll try again next turn.

Bay of Bengal: Allied ships and aircraft are making noise, mainly to continue tickling Erik's interest in this region.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (12/31/2018 9:39:09 PM)

3/25/45

NoPac: The Allied invasion of Onnekotan goes well, beginning with strong bombardments and ending with 1st Marine Div. coming ashore in good shape. The enemy garrison is weak enough that the invasion may be sufficient as is. That would be a big help to the timetable.

Allied 4EB of Sapporo at night is an abject failure, with about 15 bombers downed for modest hits. Erik had a decent number of night fightes up - Irvings, Nicks, and Franceses.

The critical matter is the underlying preparation for the pending invasion of Shikotan, withdrawl of troops from Kushiro, and The Next Next Big Thing. THere's a tremendous amount of activity in NoPac devoted to these things and it's coming together well.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/B4663B3FFF4A4E418A7C08A72FBADCEA.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/5/2019 9:23:24 PM)

3/26/45 to 3/30/45

NoPac: The Allies are making progress in reducing the remaining enemy holdings in the Kuriles.

Points: Enemy lead is under 5k. Barring a big battle, this probably won't change markedly until The Next Next Big Thing, which I think should unhinge the entire enemy MLR and create abundant opportunities. TNNBT really is the endgame operation, although new ideas and opportunities will crop up until the game does end, which will be a long time from now.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/EA502FCF2A7848DDB6AC93E5CD9089FF.jpg[/image]



CaptBeefheart -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/7/2019 12:05:37 AM)

TNNBT: I'm going to keep beating a dead horse and bet on "Korea" one more time. Anyway, can't wait to see what sort of devious operation you have in the cards.

Happy New Year, by the way.

Cheers,
CB



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/7/2019 3:19:09 AM)

Happy New year to you, also, Mr. Beefheart.



BillBrown -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/7/2019 4:03:51 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

TNNBT: I'm going to keep beating a dead horse and bet on "Korea" one more time. Anyway, can't wait to see what sort of devious operation you have in the cards.

Happy New Year, by the way.

Cheers,
CB


You mean you don't think he will land in Tokyo? [:)]



CaptBeefheart -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/7/2019 5:07:32 AM)

Thanks.

I forgot to ask: What battle happened SE of Wakkanai?

Cheers,
CB



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/7/2019 5:23:08 PM)

I noticed that battle symbol too, but there was no combat there (nor any Allied units there in many months).



Lokasenna -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/7/2019 8:38:15 PM)

A unit didn't move there and then auto-retreat back to Wakkanai?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/7/2019 9:01:23 PM)

Nope. No Allied unit has been there for months.



Lokasenna -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/8/2019 2:50:45 AM)

Saw you say that, but had to ask anyway. There shouldn't be a battle icon there without a battle having taken place...

It could be a slight display bug, maybe - did he happen to move anything to Wakkanai and then it auto-retreated back a hex? It would say so at the very bottom of the combat report for the relevant day.



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/8/2019 5:02:54 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Saw you say that, but had to ask anyway. There shouldn't be a battle icon there without a battle having taken place...

It could be a slight display bug, maybe - did he happen to move anything to Wakkanai and then it auto-retreated back a hex? It would say so at the very bottom of the combat report for the relevant day.

That should be it, if the battle symbol appears when an IJA unit moves into Wakkanai, decides it is facing overwhelming odds and retreats back to the adjoining hex without any combat actually taking place.



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/8/2019 3:25:17 PM)


While on guard duty, Nitōhei Sato accidentally shot himself in the foot.


We had someone who, while guarding a cage of Stinger Missiles, accidentally/not accidentally shot himself in the foot.



anarchyintheuk -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/8/2019 5:21:42 PM)

Could have been testing response time by your medics.



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/8/2019 5:37:10 PM)

There was a case where two men, best of friends and roommates, were goofing around in the back of an M113 APC [sm=tank2-39.gif] and one shot the other with an M60 machine gun. One round, in the head. [X(] It sort of ruined the guys whole day.

Then I heard about the time during testing when a tanks [sm=Tank-fahr09.gif] main gun was fired [sm=00000959.gif] in the motor pool . . . [8|]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 3:37:24 AM)

3/31/45 to 4/3/45

NoPac: Successive Allied attacks at Paramushiro form the 1st through the 3rd result in a 2:1 sandwiched between two 1:1. Forts have fallen from 7 to 4. On the 3rd, USA 37th Div. comes ashore to reinforce the attack. The base should fall tomorrow or the day after.

With Paramushiro about wrapped up, Death Star and a bunch of empties are moving south. The first order of business is to pick up two RCTs of 3rd Aus. Div. at Kunashiri (the third RCT will garrison that base). The other two RCT will garrison Shikotan and Etorofu, respectively. Then, ships will pick up the Aus. division that just took Shikotan. It will take part in The Next Big Big Thing.

Then, DS and the empties will report to Kushiro to retrieve the vast army lingering there.

Erik is paying careful attention to all the goins on. I think there's a fair chance he'll go on the offensive in the Kuriles/Hokkaido region once DS and the invasion armadas depart. I'll leave behind a modest carrier force and some good combat TFs to try to keep him honest. Most of the bases will have good garrisons behind lots of forts. Most of the Allied air force will be there too.

The Next Next Big Thing should be ready to embark in perhaps two to three weeks. Lots of DDs need upgrades that take 7 days and provide about a 33% increase in AA, so worth it, and loading of the invasion armada will be a massive undertaking.





jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 1:29:29 PM)

quote:

The Next Big Big Thing


quote:

The Next Next Big Thing


Are these separate ops? Reminds me of the "twisty maze of passages" and "maze of twisty passages" etc from a legendary and classic game.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 1:44:19 PM)

Oops, my bad. I meant TNNBT ("Next Next"), for TNBG was the invasion of Kushiro several months back.



jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 3:08:00 PM)

More on topic, I am wondering about your comment of possible or likely Japanese offensive ops in Hokkaido or the Kuriles. I could imagine a big air offensive and generally trying to make your life miserable up there ... but do you really think he would try counter-invasions?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 3:15:12 PM)

He can move on Wakkanai and/or Kushiro by land. That's probably a likely event. I'll probably leave at least one division at each base, most likely two. But he can bring 500k or more to bear, if he wants to.

It's unlikely he'd move on one of the Kuriles, but not impossible if he sees easy pickings and if things developed in such a way that his air force could control things, at least at certain points.

I probably have something like 15000 AV in total in NoPac now. I'll have to leave roughly six or eight divisions behind to adequately garrison the Hokkaido bases, Toyohara and Shikuka. That probably leaves me with about 8k to 10k AV for TNNBT. That should be enough, I think. I won't be able to conquer the whole world and do everything I'd like to do, but I should be able to do enough to give Erik fits.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 7:13:39 PM)

4/4/45

NoPac: The Allies took Paramushiro today, completing the offensive prerequisites to The Next Next Big Thing.

From the original D-Day at Shikuka to the fall of Paramushiro took about nine months. The first four months were devoted to the Sikhalin Island campaign, which was mainly taking the bases and then warding off Erik's awesome counterattacks. The past five months have been devoted to the Hokkaido and Kuriles campaigns, which have gone remarkably well, especially since winter took up four of those months.

Erik can rightfully claim that his tenacious defense turned this into a lengthy campaign. I can counter that he broke the back of his navy in doing so and that the Allies managed to build up an enormous base of operations that will, I believe, allow for vigorous and efficient "end game" operations.

That end game is going to take a long time - at least six months, maybe well into 1946. TNNBT will have a big say on how the end game plays out.

First, though, there's a rather dicey op over the next two or three turns - retrieving that army from Kushiro, with DS posted forward to protect the ships. If Erik manages to do nasty things, my timetable might be SNAFUed.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/59605FC24EA7442EBFD4CCC934319971.jpg[/image]



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 8:32:32 PM)

Congratulations on the Kuriles! You did break the back of the surface Navy. If he tries a land counter attack, you are in wooded terrain, probably have high forts, and your squads have a much higher firepower this his do. I doubt if any land counter attacks would be successful Plus, you could see it coming and take steps to reduce its effectiveness. I doubt if he has the Navy to successfully invade any defended base.

If you can put a couple of DD task forces to the W and SW of the DS, they might soak up some of the airstrikes. High AAA, radar, and maneuverability are the keys for these TFs. Historically, that is what the US navy used for their radar picket destroyers.

Hopefully, to avoid the delays of the last time, you have remembered to include LSTs and such to amphibious load the heavy equipment fast without having to dock.

Good luck.

Joe



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/9/2019 11:48:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Congratulations on the Kuriles! You did break the back of the surface Navy. If he tries a land counter attack, you are in wooded terrain, probably have high forts, and your squads have a much higher firepower this his do. I doubt if any land counter attacks would be successful Plus, you could see it coming and take steps to reduce its effectiveness. I doubt if he has the Navy to successfully invade any defended base.

If you can put a couple of DD task forces to the W and SW of the DS, they might soak up some of the airstrikes. High AAA, radar, and maneuverability are the keys for these TFs. Historically, that is what the US navy used for their radar picket destroyers.

Hopefully, to avoid the delays of the last time, you have remembered to include LSTs and such to amphibious load the heavy equipment fast without having to dock.

Good luck.

Joe

I agree with most of this but the security of the LCUs left behind is not a given. Eric's strength is in his massive air force and if he decides to apply nearly all of it in this theatre in the absence of DS, he is likely to overwhelm the LBA that CR has in the area. Much of the Allied fighter strength in the area seems to be second generation fighters like P-40Ks and P-38F/Gs. Those can't compete on even terms with the third generation IJA fighters.

Once obvert clears the fighter opposition he can bomb the troops in the woods to dazed zombies before he sends in his army.
CR's strategy must rely on TNNBT being so threatening that obvert cannot ignore it to concentrate on the Eastern Front.



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/10/2019 1:29:59 AM)

The units are in bases and I presume that there would be a lot of AAA left. Yes, he can attack but the DS could come back quickly depending upon how far it travels. Also, the IJAAF and IJNAF will either follow the DS or let it perform its missions uncontested.

I have an idea where the TNNBT is and if so, it would not leave the DS that far away. But then again, I might be wrong and he might try to take Singers . . .

Edited to add this:

If the defending fighters are on a training air combat mission, then I believe that they will not be swept but can be caught up in the air defense. Maybe not enough to stop the raids but it could disrupt them.



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/10/2019 2:13:22 AM)

Another thing to try if you have not done this. Put some night fighters on LRCAP over the night bombers target bases to see if they will help against the night fighters. Try 80+ experience pilots if you have them.



HansBolter -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/10/2019 11:36:33 AM)

I have found aerial bombing of troops in woods to be mostly ineffective.

Clear, cultivated and swamp terrain are the troop killing grounds for aerial bombing.

I have success bombing troops in woods only after they have already been decimated in a ground fight and have retreated into the heavy terrain.

Troops in good condition in woods with AA should be able to weather aerial bombing.



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