RE: Notes from a Small Island (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/23/2019 6:26:07 PM)

4/17/45

TNNBT: Loading continues efficiently and satisfactorily. The issue is that many TFs carrying cadres are still inbound from the Kuriles. I think I'm going to give it one more day. IE, I think the invasion armada will depart Shikuka on the 19th. I'll round up all the stray TFs busy retrieving cadres and get them organized in some way, either by attaching them to the appropriate parent's TF or, when necessary (as when the cadre is in Strat Mode and the parent in Combat Mode) by creating a separate TF. Hugely complicated stuff going on.

Due to reasons I cannot go into, the main invasion will not include a well-prepped Amphib Force HQ. A late adjustment, due to reasons I'll mention later, means that the main target has an Amphib Force HQ at about 50%.

Death Star returned to Shikuka today and replenished fuel. It'll remain in port two days. Part of the process will be to draw plane replacements and to optimize fighter configurations on the decks (a few FM-2 Wildcat squadrons are still in use - but in most case I can upgrade them or swap them out for naval air squadrons at Shikuka's airfield.

A large industrial strike was aimed for Sapporo today, but weather shut it down. It was targeted the remnants of the industry there. A major strike on the 13th basically leveled Sapporo.



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/23/2019 6:38:01 PM)

A suggestion for your DS, when it is traveling to the new target, stand down as many air units as is possible so there will be no radio intercepts for the enemy to track. I have been reading some AARs where they tracked the Allied carriers based on a heavy volume of radio transmissions.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/23/2019 6:49:32 PM)

That's a great suggestion...although I don't think Erik will lose track of Death Star for even one minute.

However, there will be other sleight-of-hands things going on that would benefit from such a stratagem. :)

P.S. Remarkably, I didn't spell that "slate-of-hand."



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/24/2019 7:21:25 PM)

4/18/45

TNNBT: Allied sweepers and bombers combined for an effective sweep against Sapporo industrial targets, but the real action today is pure logistics - the unusually complex efforts to get everything properly loaded for The Next Next Big Thing. Nearly all loading should be complete tomorrow, and Death Star and the Herd will depart Shikuka the following day (April 20).

The map isn't a sexy one, but it's a busy one, especially with all that's going on under the hood.

In previous invasions in this game, I once forgot to station an Amphib Force HQ in the invasion hex (it stood one hex away, duh!). On another occasion, I left all the gunboats - LCI(G)s, etc. - behind. Duh!

There's so much involved here that I'm afraid of overlooking somehting.

And as I mentioned last post, I made a mistake that I caught belatedly, that cost me some prep issues for some units.

Always something to remind me just how fallable I am.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/22515162F5A846809A686A514D6D630A.jpg[/image]



Lecivius -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/24/2019 8:11:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In previous invasions in this game, I once forgot to station an Amphib Force HQ in the invasion hex (it stood one hex away, duh!).


Don't forget to make sure they are set to NOT unload [:'(]



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 4:31:06 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In previous invasions in this game, I once forgot to station an Amphib Force HQ in the invasion hex (it stood one hex away, duh!).


Don't forget to make sure they are set to NOT unload [:'(]

And just as important, make sure the other troops ARE set to unload! [;)]



Bif1961 -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 2:57:58 PM)

I have a nasty habit of picking an Island way point and having my troops get off at the way point instead of the future intended target. I guess I can tell the troops it was just a practice landing to cover my error. [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 5:16:09 PM)

4/19/45

TNNBT: Loading is essentially complete at Shikuka. More than 10,000 AV aboard ships. More than 125 units. All kinds of support ships and troops.

This graphic shows the level of the undertaking by revealing the meager defenses remaining at Shikuka. A Kiwi brigade is the heart of the garrison. An Australian division, originally slated for Truk and Marcus, is inbound. Forts are 9 here, and the air and sea defenses are stout, so the temporary weakness isn't a concern.

This turn took more than six hours of clicking - most of that for configuring TFs, combining, choosing commanders, choosing settings, and other things.

Then, once everything was done, I went back through the roster of TFs to make sure that none of them are still loading troops or supply. If they were, the armada would simply stay in place until loading was complete. I've tried to make sure everything is right for the armada to depart tonight...but there's a 33% chance I overlook some weird vessel trying to shoehorn lingering motorized support into a hold somewhere.

If the armada does leave without hiccups, and if it doesn't somehow stall en route (as sometimes happens, usually due to small vessels needing fuel or the wierd antics of DMS TFs), I think the journey will take about 10-12 days.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/849002E4E7B54F63A16E39D6F082A772.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 7:54:56 PM)

Bon Voyage et Bonne Chance!



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 8:10:03 PM)

Thanks, BBfanboy.

The odds favor the Allies in an undertaking this late and of this size and power. More likely than not, I'll get my guys ashore in good shape and in big numbers.

But there's a possibility the wheels will come off in spectacular fashion. So I'm optimistic but moist.



HansBolter -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 8:46:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/19/45

TNNBT: Loading is essentially complete at Shikuka. More than 10,000 AV aboard ships. More than 125 units. All kinds of support ships and troops.




TNNBT is going to be a really, really big shew (he says in his best Ed Sullivan impression voice)



JeffroK -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 10:09:18 PM)

Who is counting out the hexes for a 10-12 day sail??



BillBrown -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 10:11:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

Who is counting out the hexes for a 10-12 day sail??


With LSTs in the TFs, looks like 50-60 hexes. [;)]



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 11:13:21 PM)

No need - CR already confessed that Ryukyus and possibly some nearby islands are on the list. My only question is whether the Bonins will also be on the list to guard the southern flank and inhibit transfer of aircraft southward/northward.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/25/2019 11:48:46 PM)

The game has been littered with objectives chosen and discarded (and sometimes re-chosen). So all bets are off in that regard. :)

4/20/45

TNNBT: All TFs weigh anchor (huzzah!) and make...three hexes. I think the issue was that some of the replenishment (AO) TFs had used max points to load during the turn. Hopefully, things will pick up a bit tomorrow.

I might've been a bit optimistic in my judgment of days in transit, too. No doubt there will be issues due to refueling or other things. A better guesstimate might've been 15 days.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/26/2019 4:31:38 PM)

4/21/45

TNNBT: The armada made six hexes today. A second armada of small TFs carrying cadres or last-minute arrivals rendezvoused at Uruppu Jima, where they refueled from prepositioned TKs.

The armada will continue in this fashion - the main group under the protection of Death Star, and a second group to the "outside." That will be short-legged ships (especially LCI gunboats) mated with an AO or two. That's to allow efficient refueling and to ensure that the main armada isn't slowed by the process.

Obvert: He's been thinking through things for a long time. He's been watching carefully. And now he's implementing his reaction plan.

I've been thinking through things. I've been watching him. And I have my own measures and countermeasures in place.

Erik doesn't seem to have any detection on Death Star and the Herd, but he knows something massive has left Shikuka, where the number of ships suddenly dropped by something like 2,000. He had previously surmised that Hokkaido wasn't the target, and has withdrawn troops from the front lines. He knows my ships haven't entered the Sea of Japan, so he knows Korea's east coast isn't the target.

He's had a mobile reserve cruising around for awhile, consisting of at least 125th Division. I think he's prepared to place lots of troops on to ships and to land then at bases he deems vulnerable or likely. The SigInt today included one such move (there hasn't been SigInt about troops inbound to Formosa for many, many, many months).

He'll know the likely targets: Yellow Sea ports, China coast, Okinawa, Formosa, Hainan Island, Philippines or even Borneo or Vietnam. Some of those he won't really care about - he'll concentrate on the most vulnerable and most important.

The invasion troops prepped for five targets - two primary, two secondary, and one "emergency." The latter is available just in case Erik outguesses me x10.

I've been conserving my longest-ranged recon, and swapping some units over to the incredible Superfort recon (range something like 44). In about five days, I'll light up a variety of targets - some to nourish Erik's thinking (such as Formosa) and some genuine. The recon will come from Moulmein on one end and Hokkaido on the other. I can cover just above everything in between.

For instance, he's had shipping at Samah, on Hainan Island. That's a logical and desirable target, so I'll definitely do some recon there.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/BC505E40FB0C4DCCB9283186B617811D.jpg[/image]



JohnDillworth -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/26/2019 9:06:36 PM)




[image]local://upfiles/8143/BC505E40FB0C4DCCB9283186B617811D.jpg[/image]

quote:

Korea's east coast isn't the target.


Well, there goes my guess.........2nd guess was the east coast of China



ChuckBerger -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/26/2019 9:52:04 PM)

I think he's going to grab Shikoku. It's a great way of ramping up pressure on Japan.



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/26/2019 9:59:32 PM)

Big picture map?



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/26/2019 10:10:43 PM)

The scuttlebutt going around the chow hall is somewhere between Formosa and Kyushu.



JohnDillworth -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/26/2019 10:26:42 PM)

quote:

I think he's going to grab Shikoku. It's a great way of ramping up pressure on Japan.

Good guess. One thing Dan is pretty consistent about and that is rarely doing the same thing twice. Last game was the Formosa/South China route....So I will discount that route



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/27/2019 1:01:37 AM)

4/22/45

It's fun to read your predictions and analysis. Very fun. Your hunches are good ones and varied, covering most of the likely targets. I hope Erik's hunches are similarly divided and that he feels strongly that his defenses are too spread out - too many targets to cover adequately. I'll know better when recon begins lighting up various potential targets in five or six days or whenever TNNBT Armada draws close enough to warrant it.

TNNBT:...and that might be a month or two. Today, the Armada made two hexes. I can find no reason whatsoever for this lack of progress. There are no lagging TFs set to follow that might've acted as a ball and chain. And not a single ship in the entire armada expended a single Ops point. Very strange...and maddening, of course. Speed counts now, but I'm at the mercy of the AI (no need in you guys positing possibilities - I think I've covered everything).

I did take the precaution of separating out all the short-legged ships - LCIs, one small xAP that snuck into the invasion force, and DD Vampire with 2500 endurance. These ships will report to the Cadre TF that is steaming south just "outside" Death Star...and making better speed than DS, wouldn't you know.

There's peril in having TFs apart from DS, but it's one I feel I have to take. If this invasion proceeds at two hexes per turn, Erik will have time to move armies to likely beachheads. Darn it.

SEAC: The Allies are advancing down through the jungle, and the enemy is retiring. For a week, I've been searching for indications that Erik might reverse course. He's looking and evaluating. He's wondering if the bulk of the Allied army will draw far away on the yellow road, leaving itself vulnerable to a rear attack by his army. So I'm watching carefully and taking some precautions to ensure that the rear (Moulmeain/Rangoon) has real teeth.




Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/27/2019 1:18:27 AM)

4/22/45

Strategic Map: The massive Allied base of operations in the Sea of Okhotsk is apparent. Can the Allies shift nimbly and effectively? The nimbly is in real question, with the Armada moving at about less than four hexes per day after the firs three days.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/5DD3CB8E61064CF48165C37FB8CD7ADF.jpg[/image]



tarkalak -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/27/2019 8:28:58 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I think he's going to grab Shikoku. It's a great way of ramping up pressure on Japan.

Good guess. One thing Dan is pretty consistent about and that is rarely doing the same thing twice. Last game was the Formosa/South China route....So I will discount that route


He did X, so he won't do it again is a dangerous assumption. If Canoerebel had deemed the Formosa/South China "best" for this game, he would have taken it, in my humble opinion.



JeffroK -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/27/2019 9:06:43 AM)

Shanghai, or thereabouts.

There will be a sodding great Red Army on the northern flank very soon.



nicwb -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/27/2019 10:59:09 AM)

We should take a pool - the winner get's naming rights to Canoerebel's next operation ?



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/27/2019 1:20:55 PM)

"What did you say they call this place?"

[image]local://upfiles/55056/F368E918821645E0A19D9644FA51B546.jpg[/image]



Bif1961 -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/28/2019 12:46:10 AM)

You might want to put the major invasion TF/s on full speed and see if that makes them go faster than the maddening 2 hexes?



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/28/2019 2:19:18 AM)

You don't want to increase the damage on the invasion TFs which can slow them down nor increase the fuel consumption requiring them to pause and refuel which can then take longer overall.

The Bonins/Ryukyus would cut off the SRA and not be too close to the massive, overlapping air defenses on the Southern Home Islands. This would also open up the rest of the Home Islands to strategic bombing and naval bombardments, hopefully to concentrate on aircraft factories. Then, by taking the small islands off the Home Islands and building up their airbases, that could allow PTs to infest the Home Island waters to interrupt any minesweeping operations. It would also curtail enemy Naval Search and ASW so that could allow submarines safer operational areas. Then China, Korea, and Shikoku are open. Airborne attacks could allow a toehold for other units to reinforce and then the Cavalry can exploit the openings on the mainland if there are minimal garrisons in place.

Taking China (at least to the rail lines) would imperil all of the units in the mountains as well as cutting off most supplies from the north, it would also curtail the flow of resources, oil, and fuel from the SRA.



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/28/2019 6:01:12 AM)

The stalled TFs may be balking at going into an area where enemy aircraft are operating. I would try setting all TFs to Direct/Absolute routing. Giving them a waypoint near the target also seems to keep them moving in that direction, even if they make contact with an enemy TF (which would cause them to RTB otherwise).



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