RE: Notes from a Small Island (Full Version)

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HansBolter -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/1/2019 1:31:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The slowest ship in the entire armada is the LST, which makes 11 knots. It regularly covers six hexes per turn.

I'm carefully managing fuel so that it doesn't become a problem. Thus far it hasn't been an issue because all tFs are set to home port Kushiro, which isn't far away.

So 5 or 6 hexes per day would be the expected speed of the armada.




Well, I guess if the LST TFs have 2/3 instead or 2/2 movement rates they would make 3 hexes in each phase because cruise and max speed for those ships is the same so they would be moving at the max speed when set to Mission Speed.

Maybes its the 10 knot LCTs and LCIs I'm thinking of that only get TF movement rates of 2/2.



Barb -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/1/2019 1:44:55 PM)

LSTs have a cruise speed of 9 (used in Normal/Cruise setting) so this translates into 216 nautical miles traveled per 24 hours - that is 5.4 hexes per turn. So it should be moving along at (5,5,6,5,6, repeat) hexes per turn in total.



HansBolter -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/1/2019 2:47:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

LSTs have a cruise speed of 9 (used in Normal/Cruise setting) so this translates into 216 nautical miles traveled per 24 hours - that is 5.4 hexes per turn. So it should be moving along at (5,5,6,5,6, repeat) hexes per turn in total.



So stated task force movement rates mean nothing and TFs actually move distances in nautical miles accumulating progress toward the next hex as LCUs do?

Then what is the point of the stated hex movement rates for task forces?

Have to wonder how reactions impact this.



Lokasenna -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/1/2019 4:24:53 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

So stated task force movement rates mean nothing and TFs actually move distances in nautical miles accumulating progress toward the next hex as LCUs do?

Then what is the point of the stated hex movement rates for task forces?



Well, yes and no. In most cases, the number of hexes shown for movement are and will be accurate. However, sometimes TFs will move an additional "make up hex" based on average speed in cases where movement has been constant and does not evenly break down to the 40-mile hex size. I think the example is typically something like this: an 12-knot ship moves 144 nautical miles in 12 hours. This is 3.6 hexes. In a single phase, they will only move 3 hexes... but over 2 phases, you may end up getting 7 hexes of movement out of them even though the displayed speed is only 3 hexes per phase.


It's also worth noting that TFs full of LSTs moving at full speed will not burn up all that much additional fuel compared to cruise speed. Only the distance moved beyond the ship's cruise speed burns Endurance (and thereby, fuel) at a x6 rate. For the non-LST ships in the TF, they will not be exceeding their actual cruise speed. Only the LSTs will burn additional fuel, and not that much besides as their full speed is not much higher than cruise speed. It is definitely feasible to run LST TFs on full speed for at least 3 days without worrying about fuel for even a moderate return journey, if not 4 or even 5. More than enough for the final approach distances.



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/1/2019 4:25:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

LSTs have a cruise speed of 9 (used in Normal/Cruise setting) so this translates into 216 nautical miles traveled per 24 hours - that is 5.4 hexes per turn. So it should be moving along at (5,5,6,5,6, repeat) hexes per turn in total.



So stated task force movement rates mean nothing and TFs actually move distances in nautical miles accumulating progress toward the next hex as LCUs do?

Then what is the point of the stated hex movement rates for task forces?

Have to wonder how reactions impact this.

The displayed speed in knots is accurate when your TF setting is Full Speed or Cruise Speed. When you have the setting at Mission Speed, the display (including the individual-ship display) defaults to the max speed for each ship, so you cannot see the cruise speed. This fools you if you are not aware of it.



HansBolter -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/1/2019 6:47:22 PM)

Thanks for the succinct explanations Loka and BB.

I had always struggled to understand why TFs with 4/5 movement rates set to Mission speed move 9 hexes in a turn when the Mission setting should be Cruise and the stated movement rate should limit the TF to 8 hexes.

Ten years in on this game and probably at least 15 in on the game engine and I still need to learn to see those TF movement rates as approximations, not absolutes.

It's no wonder this game is so daunting to newbs.




Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/2/2019 1:29:55 AM)

4/26/45

TNNBT: DS and The Herd moved 5 hexes today, now at 30 cumulative. One more day of full movement and then all TFs will rendezvous and top off fuel before heading to the beaches. The point of assembly will be west of Chichi Jima, from which point everything from the Philippines to the Yellow Sea will be within range.

Recon lit up 20 bases from the north end of the Yellow Sea to the Indochina Coast. This gave Erik an eyeful and, as he no doubt suspects, includes some real targets mixed in with decoys. The good thing is that he clearly isn't defending in depths. Many bases are lightly protected. He might have reserves strategically placed to respond to likely beachheads in short order, but I think his defenses are relatively weak - at least at the beach.

I haven't made any final decisions as to the ultimate target. All five are in play. Final decision likely made in two or three days, as the refueling pause ends.



adarbrauner -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/2/2019 7:48:36 PM)

My bet is:
1 Shikoku
2 Shanghai Area
3 Southern Korea
4 Okinawa-Ryukyus

Shikoku means, easier to defend after being seized,+ cut with all the South + excellent, the best bombing stage.
Cons, it may be heavily defended, and the as it is difficult for JApan to bring in teinforcements, the same for Allies who shall be bottled there easily without expansion.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/3/2019 2:19:15 AM)

4/27/45

TNNBT: Death Star and the Herd made good speed and is now two hexes ENE of Chichi Jima. During this turn, I refueled nearly all ships under 4k endurance. The armada will slow tomorrow, allowing the lagging TFs to catch up. Those include a CV, two CVEs, and a host of LSTs and slower ships that sailed "outside" the main group. Now the main course is shifting from SW to W temporarily, so the outside ships are "behind" by about seven hexes. Tomorrow likewise will be a refueling day; then the show really moves toward the beaches.

For two turns, Allied recon has been lighting up targets in Indochina (Tourane, Hue, Vinh, Haiphon, Dalat), southern China (Pakoi, Kwangchoan), Hainan Island (Samah, Kiungshan), Tawain (Karenko shows no garrison!), north China (Ningpo, Wenchow, Haichow, Chefoo, Shanhaiguan, Antung), west Korea (Chinmapo, Kaishe, Gunzan) and Japanese islands (Aogashima and Hachi jima). That's alot for Erik to chew over. A few more unreconned targets will be selected tomorrow.

THe picture I see is that key bases are lightly protected, including one of the primary targets. Movement dots show lots of units movement from north Japan to south. No doubt these will board ships to reinforce likely targets. But the time is growing short now. The armada is about 35 hexes from the two primary targets (allowing for a slightly longer course to avoid major enemy concentrations). Two of the secondary targets are under 30 hexes. The tertiary target, which I won't recon but I feel sure is vacant or lightly garrisoned, is less than 40 hexes away. Refueling will slow me down a bit, but as Death Star nears the beachheads, Erik won't be able to bring in reinforcements (I think), as DS will control the vicinity.



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/3/2019 7:49:47 PM)

GO GIT 'EM



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/3/2019 8:05:14 PM)

4/28/45

TNNBT: Death Star and The Herd moved just two hexes (as planned). All the lagging carrier TFs (late reinforcements that came sprinting from West Coast and Hawaii) rendezvoused with the armada. Some of the lagging transports did too, but I still have a big group of transports lagging by seven hexes (they made 0 or 1 today, probably because they also did refueling yesterday). So at least one more day of slow movement to corral this herd of horses (cats, as John III nicely puts it).

Recon expanded to lots of new bases today, including Iriomote, Kume Jima, Tungchow, Foochow, Nanning, and others. Still very good numbers showing up. At the moment, I show the top four targets with no garrisons or small garrisons (more recon may reveal flaws in those numbers, but Erik doesn't have the kind of numbers to stop what's coming). The fifth target - the emergency one - I haven't and won't recon, as I'm 99.99% sure it's vacant.

Erik hasn't defended really yet. I don't expect him to employ his air power yet. I think it's more likely that he'll commit all kinds of small fry - up to CL size - in an effort to scatter and harry the armada. He may hold of springing things until the armada is much deeper into his "kill zone," as opposed to trying for a big punch that might disrupt or even stop the invasion.

I tweaked carrier fighter settings today. Some fighters were still standing down to deal with high fatigue (Death Star has been at sea since about 1928). Things look good.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/3/2019 9:04:06 PM)

4/28/45

A visual of TNNBT underway, emphasizing spread of recon targets.

Of the numerous bases reconned since the flurry began two turns ago, basically none had ever before been under surveillance. So Erik has subs and recon of bases from the northern Yellow Sea to the Indochina coast to consider. The sub field may or may not add to the effect.

The Allied advance has been erratic. The advantage of that is that its unpredictable - Erik probably can't fine tune an ambush (yet). Also, the extra time will allow for more recon. The info I'm getting is very good and encouraging.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/D8E1E7DA351848E7ADDA178B2334C750.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 11:02:33 AM)


I think his reaction to you is going to depend on where you hit him at. One place might merit a full scale reprisal and others - moderate or none.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 1:02:40 PM)

That's true. I think he'd welcome an invasion of the Philippines but won't tolerate Yellow Sea or Shikoku.

Hey, your provocative avatar and signature made me laugh.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 1:08:12 PM)

I've been mulling over taking a break from AAR posting. I noticed months ago that readership is down considerably. That's probably partly due to the Forum population (Bullwinkle, crsutton, Paullus, and even Chickenboy are seldom show up or comment, along with many others) and partly to my saying things, and sticking my nose into things, that haven't endeared me with a lot of good folks. I thought about it more over the weekend. I decided I definitely will see things through TNNBT invasion. If the invasion goes well, that's when I may take a sabbatical for awhile. If the wheels come off during the invasion, I won't take a sabbatical, as things would then really be interesting to readers and it would be bad form to disappear just when I'd taken my lumps. So, Bad Invasion, I stick around. Good invasion, I may take a break for awhile.

As for the other game, I think I will take a break from it for awhile.



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 1:38:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's true. I think he'd welcome an invasion of the Philippines but won't tolerate Yellow Sea or Shikoku.

Hey, your provocative avatar and signature made me laugh.



That's what I hoped for. The "experts" got us in this mess And I don't think they are going to get us out of it.

"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Mao Tse Tung



tarkalak -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 1:57:50 PM)

You and obvert are building a nice narrative of your game.

I do not post often, because I am very inexperienced in the game and I don't want to slip something from your opponent's point of view.

I enjoy reading both your AARs recently and will miss it if you decide to take a pause.



Mark VII -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 2:15:56 PM)

I for one very much enjoy reading about your wars. Hope you decide to keep your AAR's going, maybe 2 or 3 days per post. Your thoughts on plans and what went right or wrong are very insightful.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've been mulling over taking a break from AAR posting. I noticed months ago that readership is down considerably. That's probably partly due to the Forum population (Bullwinkle, crsutton, Paullus, and even Chickenboy are seldom show up or comment, along with many others) and partly to my saying things, and sticking my nose into things, that haven't endeared me with a lot of good folks. I thought about it more over the weekend. I decided I definitely will see things through TNNBT invasion. If the invasion goes well, that's when I may take a sabbatical for awhile. If the wheels come off during the invasion, I won't take a sabbatical, as things would then really be interesting to readers and it would be bad form to disappear just when I'd taken my lumps. So, Bad Invasion, I stick around. Good invasion, I may take a break for awhile.

As for the other game, I think I will take a break from it for awhile.




jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 2:40:22 PM)

quote:

So, Bad Invasion, I stick around. Good invasion, I may take a break for awhile.


This gives moral hazard to your fans: we would hope for failure so you keep writing! [:'(] Seriously, do what's right for you. The rest of us will manage either way.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 2:59:11 PM)

Yeah, I thought of that. I may have put the kybosh on my own invasion! Bad karma!

By the way, I hope my confession didn't come across as phishing for feedback. I know there are a number of you regular readers - probably 10 or 20 or thereabouts. I appreciate all of you. And this Forum is the best by far that I've ever been a part of. I've gotten crossways with quite a few Forumites in the past year or two, some on them and some on me. But I've never lost the impression that the Forum is (with one possible exception) populated by good men (and the occasional good woman).



konevkovskiy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 3:12:02 PM)

CR,
I have been following your AAR's for near a decade. I always appreciate the balance of graphics and details that have come to exemplify your content. Life balance is important for all of us and I appreciate the opportunity to live vicariously through your AAR's. I know if I bought this game I would be obsessed and my wife and children would not enjoy that.

I would not be surprised if there were not several more lurking readers like myself.

With my sincere gratitude, KonevK



Lecivius -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 3:56:49 PM)

I read EVERYTHING! So I comment on nothing. Loose lips, and all that.



pontiouspilot -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 4:04:44 PM)

Hey I read you religiously...I don't post much because I read your opponent too.



BillBrown -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 4:45:59 PM)

Read, little to no comments, they seem to be taken wrong.



Bearcat2 -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 4:49:21 PM)

Read your AAR every day; Thanks



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 4:59:20 PM)

Hey, Bill, I recall when one (or several) of my posts struck you wrong. But that was one of those exasperating cases where the written word didn't accurately communicate my tone or thoughts. IE, I was making a neutral point, not one that was critical or negative. But you're not the only reader that's felt that way. I can think of at least three others. For instance, a week or two back, Jeff in Kansas somehow took my comment in support of folks who stick with sports teams in good times and bad...and felt like I was saying the exact opposite. It's been pretty weird, of late.That's one of the reasons I'm feeling some forum fatigue.



BillBrown -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 5:03:47 PM)

Actually CR, that was only one small event, I have had other posts in other threads that did not seem to be taken the way I intended.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 5:04:21 PM)

By me?



brian800000 -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 5:18:13 PM)

I'm reading too. I'm new and reading two veterans is a great learning experience.



BillBrown -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/4/2019 5:28:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

By me?


NO, other threads, other people.



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