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Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (1/24/2020 4:00:18 PM)
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1/14/46 to 1/17/46
Erik found the way to turn off combat animations, cutting his turn time by 75%. Now he's flipping turns.
The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down: For the past few months, the game has felt like the Civil War in the winter of 1865, especially since the Japanese position in China fell apart. The Allies are moving all over the place, steamrolling, striking effectively, taking important bases, and the enemy seems holed up, licking its wounds. Erik still has a strong airforce and enough of a navy to put power on a particular point under the right circumstances. What I don't know is whether his economy is collapsing or whether he still has a strong reserve. I have to assume the latter, so I remain cautious about placing assets in positions where his air force could attack en masse.
Hokkaido: The Allies blew through the enemy force in the woods hex south of Wakkanai. That force, it turned out, was mixed brigades. Tomorrow, Allied armor will attack another hex to the SW. If the Allies prevail - and they will, tomorrow or the day after - then the Allies will be proximate to Sapporo. To this point, I don't see evidence that Erik is reinforcing - supply may be the issue. Sapporo is key because it's airfield is 11 hexes from Tokyo - the max range of the P-80 Shooting Star and the P-51H (the late-war Mustangs and Corsairs have far less range than the earlier models). The Allied army at Kushiro is moving west, towards Sapporo/Hakodate. And a sizeable amphibious force will take station north of Bihoro tomorrow, with D-Day the day after, if things go well. Here I'm exposing ships, but Erik doesn't seem to have patrols up and most of his airfields are wrecked. I'll monitor detection levels carefully before committing but I'm thinking Hokkaido may turn into "stole second base on catcher's indifference."
China: Changsha is likely to fall tomorrow. Major Allied army to coalesce at Canton in about four days - far more than is needed for the base. Western and Russian 2EB and 1EB are handling the Japanese stacks that have retreated off road. I don't think the enemy will have any bases in China in two weeks, except for a couple of meaningless ones in the Himalayas and other extremities. Many Allied units are reporting to Shanghai, for likely invasions of the Ryukus and Pescadores and a possible invasion of Moppo. Another sizeable continents of units is moving by rail to reinforce Korea.
Victory Conditions: The score fluctuates a bit, as Japanese bases fall below the supplies needed or recover the amount needed, effecting the denominator by about +/- 500 each day. Overall the IJ lead is down to about 16.5k. The imminent fall of Changsha, Canton and Hong Kong, and the possibility that Sapporo, Asahikawa and Bihoro will follow suit inside ten days, will bump things considerably. If Erik continues passive, I think there's a decent chance of 2:1 by the end of February. But he's a good and aggressive player, so unlikely to sit on his hands while Richmond burns.
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