RE: Notes from a Small Island

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BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/9/2020 4:32:12 PM)
quote: Canoerebel: There was a time, as recently as two months ago, where I wondered if Allied moves here and on Hokkaido would trigger massive enemy counterattacks. Thus far, Erik is quiet. I think that's due to his supply situation more than anything else. Looks to me like he has decided the only effort to stymie your Autovic will be preventing your Strategic Bombing campaign. He has seen that he cannot oppose you on land and sea and gain enough denominator VPs.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/9/2020 6:42:31 PM)
Thanks for the tip, Ranger. I didn't know that. I don't have plans to invade anything other than high-value bases, at this point.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/9/2020 6:43:15 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy quote: Canoerebel: There was a time, as recently as two months ago, where I wondered if Allied moves here and on Hokkaido would trigger massive enemy counterattacks. Thus far, Erik is quiet. I think that's due to his supply situation more than anything else. Looks to me like he has decided the only effort to stymie your Autovic will be preventing your Strategic Bombing campaign. He has seen that he cannot oppose you on land and sea and gain enough denominator VPs. That could be. If he is going to counterattack, throwing everything at me, it'll be when the Allies invade Moppo.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/9/2020 6:44:59 PM)
1/29/46 Only a few Allied units attacked - some armor and one or two infantry units. But they still managed a 1:1 and dropped forts to 7. This is bad news for Japan. A general attack to take place tomorrow, and a bunch of new infantry units will be up for the following attack. Ground combat at Sapporo (120,51) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 69206 troops, 654 guns, 1881 vehicles, Assault Value = 4621 Defending force 85362 troops, 934 guns, 239 vehicles, Assault Value = 1527 Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 7 Allied adjusted assault: 1322 Japanese adjusted defense: 1259 Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 7) Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 7 Combat modifiers Defender: forts(+), preparation(-), supply(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 5339 casualties reported Squads: 67 destroyed, 315 disabled Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 79 disabled Engineers: 5 destroyed, 41 disabled Guns lost 40 (11 destroyed, 29 disabled) Vehicles lost 20 (12 destroyed, 8 disabled) Units destroyed 1 Allied ground losses: 1612 casualties reported Squads: 10 destroyed, 120 disabled Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 69 disabled Engineers: 1 destroyed, 56 disabled Guns lost 17 (5 destroyed, 12 disabled) Vehicles lost 87 (6 destroyed, 81 disabled) Assaulting units: 4th Armoured Brigade 77th Infantry Division 1st Royal Marine Division 671th Tank Destroyer Battalion 819th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion 3rd NZ Brigade 3rd Regiment 20th Armored Division 44th Infantry Division 9th Armoured Brigade X Corps Engineer Regiment 8th Infantry Division IX Corps Combat Engineer Regiment 4th Infantry Division 13th Armored Division 719th Flame Tank Battalion 28th Infantry Division 5th USMC Tank Battalion 131st Combat Engineer Regiment 7th Infantry Division 640th Tank Destroyer Battalion 3rd USMC Field Artillery Battalion V Corps Artillery I US Corps 205th Field Artillery Battalion Provisional GMC Grp Defending units: 43rd Division 36th Ind.Mixed Brigade 35th Ind.Mixed Brigade 7th Division 114th Division Nanking Naval Guard Unit 68th Brigade 8th Division 129th Ind.Mixed Brigade 71st Division 77th Division 59th Ind.Mixed Brigade 85th Naval Guard Unit 31st Army 33rd RF Gun Battalion 31st Med. Field Artillery Battalion 1st JAAF AF Bn 2nd Base Force 1st Ind. Field Artillery Battalion 67th Ind. AA Battalion 33rd Army 23rd Machine Canno AA Battalion 31st Air Defense AA Regiment 141st AA Regiment 70th Ind.Mixed Brigade 3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment 15th Special Base Force 73rd JAAF AF Bn

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/9/2020 6:47:26 PM)
1/29/46 Opening Allied attack comes off at 4:1, so it won't take long to take this high-numerator base. All the Allied reserve units can begin prepping for other targets. Collectively, Sapporo and Naha will provide 25% of the points needed to achieve AV - roughly 2500 out of 10,000. Ground combat at Naha (95,66) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 71586 troops, 970 guns, 1763 vehicles, Assault Value = 2010 Defending force 25940 troops, 243 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 672 Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5 Allied adjusted assault: 2614 Japanese adjusted defense: 597 Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 5) Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 5 Combat modifiers Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-) experience(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 4178 casualties reported Squads: 111 destroyed, 211 disabled Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 40 disabled Engineers: 13 destroyed, 10 disabled Guns lost 62 (17 destroyed, 45 disabled) Allied ground losses: 715 casualties reported Squads: 1 destroyed, 69 disabled Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 37 disabled Guns lost 23 (2 destroyed, 21 disabled) Vehicles lost 59 (2 destroyed, 57 disabled) Assaulting units: 711th Tank Battalion 193rd Tank Battalion XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment 710th Tank Battalion Eighth Army Combat Engineer Regiment 32nd Infantry Division 766th Tank Battalion 93rd Infantry Division 762nd Tank Battalion 7th Australian Division 694th Field Artillery Battalion 543 & 545 Field Artillery Battalion 165th Field Artillery Battalion 249th Field Artillery Battalion 544th Field Artillery Battalion 225th Field Artillery Battalion XV Indian Corps X Corps Artillery 85/88/98th Mortar Regiment IX Corps Artillery 131st Field Artillery Battalion Defending units: 25th Ind.Mixed Regiment 83rd Ind.Mixed Brigade 133rd Division 5th Garrison Unit /2 Okinawa Naval Base Force 14th Air Fleet /1

JohnDillworth -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/10/2020 11:23:03 AM)
I do believe that supply does not automatically flow between the North Island and the main island of Japan. Supply is definitely an issue and the only way to bring more is by ship. I presume you have that shut down. Also, if he is bringing troops, the will have to come by air. Supply is gassed

RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/10/2020 11:41:39 AM)
Yes, supply has to be shipped to Hokkaido and excess resources and oil needs to be shipped out.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/10/2020 1:31:04 PM)
I'm not interdicting shipping traffic from Honshu to Hakodate (the southernmost Hokkaido port). Erik has transferred some divisions/reinforcements via that route, but that's helpful since the Allies have overwhelming superiority. He's reinforcing defeat. But at some point I may shut down traffic to prevent an evacuation. He doesn't seem to be bringing in supply. There's been a consistent supply malus for every engagement that's taken place on the island, and he's probably too short on Honshu to do so.

RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/10/2020 2:57:40 PM)
Would you consider putting in some sub laid minefields in the shallow hex between Honshu and Hokkaido? That might help slow things down when you want to shut the door. Some DD raiders would also help.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/10/2020 3:15:13 PM)
Yeah, a blockade would include patrolling DDs and mines. Way back in late '44, Allied subs dropped mines around Hakodate and claimed a handful of ships, mostly small fry. On a separate note, Yamato took six torpedoes near Wakkanai way back during the hard fighting around that base. There were little snippets of info thereafter indicating she didn't sink. Just got another one that she "sank" a few days ago "near Osaka/Kyoto." I'm sure that didn't happen. Erik may be shifting her to various small ports in the vicinity, trying to keep her hidden. Many of his ports are under recon but not all of them. For a long time, I thought he might've moved her to the Marianas or vicinity, but perhaps she's still in the Home Islands.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/11/2020 2:03:41 AM)
1/30/46 Sapporo: Allied attack at 2:1 drops forts to six and inflicts very heavy casualties on the Japanese. This base could fall in four or five days. To keep the enemy bottled up by severing the only path of retreat, an APD TF is tasked with dropping paratroopers on the rail hex west of Sapporo tonight. Okinawa: 5:1 attack at Naha drops forts to 4 and causes heavy enemy casualties. This base may fall tomorrow. Eyes on Victory: Japanese lead a bit over 10k; Sapporo and Naha give the Allies 2.5k. Muroran and Hakodata offer 2k. Naga (Okinawa), Pescadores and Hong Kong give the Allies 1.9k. That leaves just about 3.5k needed. A fair bit of that will come from the destruction of enemy units. Unless Erik figures out a way to inflict meaningful casualties on the Allies, the game should end in perhaps two weeks. I hope he figures out a satisfying way. If he spent the last year-plus doing nothing at all...how unsatisfying a plod for him. No fun. (He's already mentioned that he doesn't intend to play as Japan again, which is a shame. He's a great player. But doing nothing for a year's worth of turns? Blech.)

JeffroK -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/11/2020 6:15:25 AM)
Is he planning the mother of all kamikaze attacks?? Would liven it up a bit.

modrow -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/11/2020 10:45:55 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JeffroK Is he planning the mother of all kamikaze attacks?? Would liven it up a bit. Would end it quickly IMO, denying him any chance to the last kind of victory he can obtain - managing to survive till the end. My current feeling is that point-wise Kamis are rarely a reasonable investment for IJ. Just my views. Hartwig

Bearcat2 -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/11/2020 12:10:44 PM)
"Now we could do it with conventional weapons, but that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part!" -Eric "Otter" Stratton

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/11/2020 2:03:12 PM)
In this case, I'm not sure the conventional experience holds true for Erik's kamikaze corps. It's 1946. He's only used them once (in early 1945) in modest numbers. He's had well over a year to train them and accumulate the best airframes, including the turbojet and other fast aircraft. If he massed them, he might (or might not) score efficiently on a big scale. I can imagine the possibility of a CVE massacre, where he loses 1500 aircraft and I lose 25 CVEs. That would be a points victory for him - a big one, since 2:1 is the yardstick for Allied victory. I know why Erik hasn't employed his kamis yet. I'm determined not to give him that window, and I don't think it'll be necessary. IE, I don't think an invasion of Moppo will be needed to achieve victory. Erik probably had his best chance around May 1945, when the entire Allied fleet reported to Kushiro, Hokkaido, to take aboard an Allied army bound for China. The fleet, including the CVEs, was within range of many large Japanese airfields. He elected not to attack, biding his time for a better set-up, but that may have been his last best shot.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 2:51:53 AM)
1/31/46 Striving for Victory: A good day, as the victory level drops to 9k. The conquest of Naha and effective strat bombing vs. Fukuoka were the two drivers, while Sapporo is about to fall and an enemy army outside Canton was nearly destroyed. There could be last minute setbacks, of course. But at the present rate, the game is going to come to a quiet, non-boisterous conclusion in a week or two. [image]local://upfiles/8143/D59613C4ADF84BBFAC6F61E66319F212.jpg[/image]

BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 3:47:18 AM)
Nice progress! BTW, the other base on Okinawa is Nago. Naga is in the Philippines. The bad news is that it is a very slow march - about 2 weeks to get there on foot. If the fort is suppressed, and Amphib landing would be faster (assuming fully prepped troops are available).

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 4:34:29 PM)
I'll probably let them march. I do have an army prepping for Nago (thanks for the correct spelling) and can insert if needed. But invasions are inherently risky and putting it together would take about as much time as the overland march.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 4:39:57 PM)
I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper. That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed. I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think).

RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 4:43:25 PM)
Well, you could ask him not to attack a large amphibious convoy carrying millions of supplies that you happen to dump on the shores of Honshu. [;)] No troops, just supplies. Maybe fuel as well.

mind_messing -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 7:19:31 PM)
quote: These big, long games tend to end with a whisper. I know the feeling. The effort required for a turn seems to increase exponentially after 1943. Moving from '45 back to '41 and '42 seems like going from Field Marshal to Captain... quote: I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think). Japan isn't broken - your strategy was. There was some good discussion around what the Allied focus should have been from Bullwinkle, Alfred, Lokasenna and others at earlier stages of the game. You seemed to lack belief in the quantity of Allied assets to be able to effect a landing on Honshu. While it would have been far from bloodless, it removed the opportunity to make best use of the vastly superior Allied army, and left large VP centres in Japanese hands. Conscious that it's one thing to sit from the side-lines and judge and another to play the game itself, but I'm confident that on reflection, you'll agree that you veered away from paying the butcher's bill to generate the big VP swings needed for victory earlier.

HansBolter -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 8:37:50 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper. That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed. I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think). Been following this and the Obvert/Lowpe game. I'm just not the backslapping type.

RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/12/2020 9:22:24 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: HansBolter quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper. That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed. I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think). Been following this and the Obvert/Lowpe game. I'm just not the backslapping type. I learn a lot from reading the AARs so I thank them. If someone doesn't want a pixelated blood bath that is fine as well. I think that was Greyjoy's problem in the AAR that made me interested in this game, when he invaded Hokkaido then invaded Honshu and got bogged down.

T Rav -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/13/2020 12:18:50 AM)
Not looking forward to your sabbatical. Understand it, but I'll miss your posts. T Rav

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/13/2020 12:24:17 AM)
Thanks for your thoughts, MindMessing. There was a time when I had to make that call - invade Japan or concentrate on China. It's possible the former would have driven the Allies to a quicker victory, but I didn't think so. I didn't think so then or now. Your memory about the input from the Peanut Gallery is pretty spotty. I remember you chiming in. I'm 99.9% sure that neither Alfred, Bullwinkle or Lokasenna commented in any way. They'd bowed out of the AAR or the community much, much earlier. I took into consideration many factors that you aren't/weren't privy to. For instance, it is essential that the Allies conquer most of China - especially big denominator bases like Chengtu and Chungking. That's more than 5,000 denominator points right there. But given the house rules and the cards I was dealt, China couldn't be reconquered without a full commitment by the Russians and/or Western Allies. The House Rules had a material impact on that, and I doubt you have any notion of those rules or how they impacted the game. And when that tough decision was made, the Allied aircraft pools were drained and without replacements. Starting a massive, no-holds-barred air battle over Japan when I had limited resources and Erik (apparently) didn't seemed fraught with too much risk. It was better to wait until the P-51H came online, finally permitting the Allies to contest the air space over the Home Islands. There were many other factors that led me to believe the course of action I took was the best option. I might have been wrong. Another player might've done differently and did better than I did. But I'm satisfied with the decision and feel pretty sure that a lot of players would've stepped into it with both shoes had then attacked Erik when he was still fully supplied and had the upper hand in the air war.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/13/2020 1:58:17 AM)
2/1/46 Victory Marching: Sapporo falls and the enemy stack is trapped. Muroran's defenses are cracking and it's stack is trapped too. First Allied general attack at Hong Kong tomorrow (a probing preliminary attack two days ago showed an adjusted enemy AV of 18k, which is gonna take some time). Allied lead up to 83k. That's just 7k from victory. Sapporo has a level 9 airfield with lots of aviation support inbound. The fighter corps will move forward in a few days, to being working on Tokyo. That should be fun.

BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/13/2020 2:08:20 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: RangerJoe quote: ORIGINAL: HansBolter quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper. That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed. I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think). Been following this and the Obvert/Lowpe game. I'm just not the backslapping type. I learn a lot from reading the AARs so I thank them. If someone doesn't want a pixelated blood bath that is fine as well. I think that was Greyjoy's problem in the AAR that made me interested in this game, when he invaded Hokkaido then invaded Honshu and got bogged down. He did get bogged down but the big issue IIRC that caused the game to stall out was that he could not bring in other invasion shipping because the Air Combat model let too many bombers get through massive CAP. The problem was that the Air Combat model did not allow enough interactions to make the CAP effective. When the maximum number of interactions was bumped up sharply, a more realistic CAP effectiveness was apparent and very few leakers got through. Unfortunately that was a long time after Greyjoy shelved that game. Greyjoy also had some personal life issues including the passing of his father to deal with. His legend lives on!

BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/13/2020 2:19:54 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Thanks for your thoughts, MindMessing. There was a time when I had to make that call - invade Japan or concentrate on China. It's possible the former would have driven the Allies to a quicker victory, but I didn't think so. I didn't think so then or now. Your memory about the input from the Peanut Gallery is pretty spotty. I remember you chiming in. I'm 99.9% sure that neither Alfred, Bullwinkle or Lokasenna commented in any way. They'd bowed out of the AAR or the community much, much earlier. I took into consideration many factors that you aren't/weren't privy to. For instance, it is essential that the Allies conquer most of China - especially big denominator bases like Chengtu and Chungking. That's more than 5,000 denominator points right there. But given the house rules and the cards I was dealt, China couldn't be reconquered without a full commitment by the Russians and/or Western Allies. The House Rules had a material impact on that, and I doubt you have any notion of those rules or how they impacted the game. And when that tough decision was made, the Allied aircraft pools were drained and without replacements. Starting a massive, no-holds-barred air battle over Japan when I had limited resources and Erik (apparently) didn't seemed fraught with too much risk. It was better to wait until the P-51H came online, finally permitting the Allies to contest the air space over the Home Islands. There were many other factors that led me to believe the course of action I took was the best option. I might have been wrong. Another player might've done differently and did better than I did. But I'm satisfied with the decision and feel pretty sure that a lot of players would've stepped into it with both shoes had then attacked Erik when he was still fully supplied and had the upper hand in the air war. Much of this is a matter of style. Nemo would have sacrificed huge numbers of ships, aircraft and troops to get into the main Japanese cities and wipe out the economy. That probably would still have allowed a winning VP ratio and he might have done in in 1944! But that's Nemo, he has an edge on figuring out what the opposition is likely to do because he is a Psychological or Psychiatric professional. I understand CR's approach to things because my own comfort zone for risk is similar. I see no reason to suggest his overall strategy was faulty as he knew he had a very crafty opponent who is very experienced at getting the most out of the Japanese forces and economy. Obvert did score some victories along the way but CR stymied most of his gambits and won on the slow but steady path. Kudos to both sides for the way this has played out - instructive and entertaining all the way through! [&o] [image]local://upfiles/35791/F8DC032E5A0C4C14B8A8631B0F546733.gif[/image]

pontiouspilot -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/13/2020 3:26:16 AM)
Thanks for all the work that went into your AAR. I was quietly following both you and your very capable opponent. It was very interesting watching you wade into something someone else started. I'm sure your predecessor would be pleased.

JohnDillworth -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/13/2020 10:09:12 AM)
I�m curious to see how the F-80s and sweeping Tokyo goes. Hope the game doesn�t end before that. It�s rare to get a game that goes this far so that particular data point is hard to come by.

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