RE: Notes from a Small Island (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/15/2020 1:36:40 AM)

I also appreciate all you readers. Some of you spend a great deal of time reading and thinking and replying and engaging. Much appreciated.

The game, and the AAR, takes so much of my time that I only follow a couple of other AARs. I'll always follow those of my present or former opponents - currently Obvert and John III, and usually their opponents too.

And I think that's it, at the moment. There are so many other dedicated diarists. So much good reading. But that takes time and there's only so much of that to go around. (Too, there are a couple of clever, smart diarists who I simply don't "get" - my fault, not theirs. And there are plenty of AARs that post lengthy combat report segments - those I simply find tedious.)

This is a remarkable community. Here we've been together, some of us 18 years! Good folks have come and gone, but good folks have then come. The community is about as large and vibrant as ever. The only exception is the gradual disappearance of the developers. You really can't replace them. But they faded gradually over many years, so it wasn't the smack in the chops it otherwise would've been.

And there are people I don't get along with. Some I've angered or pissed off. Some have irritated me. But with very limited exceptions, I'm convinced that every person in the community is a good man who does his best and who would welcome any other member with open arms. John III and I have gone around and around in the past, yet that made us just closer and closer through the years. And some of my closest comrades in here are those who are diametrically opposed to me politically. Doesn't matter. We think alike in too many ways to get knotted up over politics.

Oh, I should add this. One year further along, I'm satisfied that Tarawa is no closer to being inundated than it was a year ago, when we had that dust-up. That's my opinion, and I understand that many good, thinking men (and a few curmudgeons) think differently. Doesn't matter. Just good men.



mind_messing -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/15/2020 3:52:41 AM)

quote:

Oh, I should add this. One year further along, I'm satisfied that Tarawa is no closer to being inundated than it was a year ago, when we had that dust-up. That's my opinion, and I understand that many good, thinking men (and a few curmudgeons) think differently. Doesn't matter. Just good men.


Funny you mention that actually, it was in the news a few weeks back over a Kiribati resident appealing to the UN over being sent home. It rejected his specific claim but left the wording open:

"Given that the risk of an entire country becoming submerged under water is such an extreme risk, the conditions of life in such a country may become incompatible with the right to life with dignity before the risk is realised,"

The UN seems to disagree with your assessment, at any rate.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/15/2020 3:07:20 PM)

2/4/46

Sweeping Tokyo: Large Allied sweep from Sapporo targets Tokyo's massive CAP. The P-51H and P-80 Shooting Stars perform well, generally at 8:1 or better (but dampened by some ops losses). Down south, carrier Bearcats and Corsairs target Osaka, as do Thunderbolts and Mustangs from Korea. The Bearcast and Thunderbolts don't do well, scoring at 1:1 or slightly better (not including ops losses, which were fairly stiff). Overall today, Japan lost 480 and I lost 330 (including modest bomber losses in strikes elsewhere). Next, in about two days, I'll try a massed raid against Tokyo, with P-80s sweeping, P-51Hs doing split duty (some sweep, some escort), and dedicated escort by the Thunderbolts and Twin Mustangs. The raid will consist of B-29-25s targeting industry (and maybe some B-17s targeting the huge airfield). If that works, great. If it doesn't, I may stand down contested Strat Bombing as counterproductive to the pursuit of victory at this late date.

Striding towards Victory: Allies pick off Port Arthur today. Large enemy armies are evaporating at Sapporo and Muroran, plus a few modest stacks in China. Allies are working to open the W hexside at Sapporo to begin the move towards Hakodate. Allies need just 4k for AV. Tomorrow, 4EB from Korea to target Nagasaki's remnant industry (weather cancelled today's mission). No major bases will fall tomorrow, but enemy troop losses should mean something.

I'll post some graphics later, especially regarding the Shooting Star.



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/15/2020 3:32:41 PM)

A good raid on Tokyo might just end the war at this point. It sure is close.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/15/2020 3:55:07 PM)

2/4/46

The State of the War: 4k from victory. Big raid on Tokyo likely will be a bloody affair with a net of 1:1 or 1:5 to one, I'm guessing. But I'll do it just to get a better feel for massed forces. It'll be scheduled for the 6th.

Hong Kong is strongly held and might not fall for quite some time. Tusung should fall in about four days (300 denominator points). Allied army on Okinawa will begin arriving at Nago in about four days (infantry well ahead of armor and arty). Various battered enemy stacks will be wiped out in coming days, but they are so battered that the points harvest may not be as great as I'd like. Most of the points may have been harvested already. Remnant industry raids could be vital to victory, and there are undefended pockets in the south. But if things drag a bit, the Allied overland move on Hakodate may be the straw the breaks the camel's back. If, by chance, that doesn't do it, the Allies are ready to invade Moppo, Korea.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CCD7DB69349341ACAB380A4314522456.jpg[/image]



rader -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/15/2020 6:46:08 PM)

Just wanted to say that I've thoroughly enjoyed reading this AAR from both sides. I salute your efforts and those of your worthy opponent!



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/17/2020 3:27:48 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/4/46

The State of the War: 4k from victory. Big raid on Tokyo likely will be a bloody affair with a net of 1:1 or 1:5 to one, I'm guessing. But I'll do it just to get a better feel for massed forces. It'll be scheduled for the 6th.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/CCD7DB69349341ACAB380A4314522456.jpg[/image]


Interesting that the Ki-83's don't seem to be as much of a factor any more. Perhaps your bombing campaign has crippled production? Are they still scoring, but in smaller numbers? Or perhaps pilot experience is dropping after the attrition on both sides?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/18/2020 11:39:55 PM)

Erik can probably tell you more about the Ki-83 than I can, because there are so many uncertainties about what's going on.

In general, the Ki-83 killed everything when it arrived (late '44?). In the past six months to a year, it hasn't seemed more or less effective than any of the other top-notch IJ airframes.

Since early 1945, most Allied fighters have performed poorly in the sweep role and nearly all in the escort role. None of the Hellcats/Bearcats can handle enemy LBA in any way whatsoever. The P-47Ns were effective briefly when the came online (early '45?) but are now miserable critters, as are the P-38s and even the P-51Ds. The Navy Corsairs can still perform at about 1:1 in the sweep role. The P-51H model has been a huge surprise, doing very well sweeping (but its limited range is a drawback). The P-80 Shooting Star is a beast but ops losses seem fairly heavy. None of the other Western fighters are useful, including Corsairs, Thunderbolts and Spit VIIIs. The Tempest is very limited in numbers and doesn't do anything well. The P-82 Twin Mustang can't sweep and is a marginal escort.

Bottom line, the P-51H and Shooting Star can apparently handle anything. Anything else is 1:1 or worse.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/18/2020 11:51:18 PM)

2/5/46 to 2/7/46

Hobbling towards Victory: A big air battle on the 6th turned out badly for the Allies and gave Japan a much-needed points infusion. As of the 7th, the Allies are about 2800 points from AV.

48 Hours over Tokyo: On the 6th, the Allies went all-in from Sapporo to attack Tokyo, the first major daylight raid of that great city. B-17Gs targeted airfield; B-25-25s Light Industry; some Thunderbolts swept and some escorted; a bunch of P-51Hs had split duty; Twin Mustangs on escort; and some Lightnings on escort and a few Corsairs to sweep. On the day, I think the Allies scored about 100 strat points and destroyed 96 enemy aircraft on the ground. The Allies lost 175 4EB (that's 350 points) and another 275 aircraft of all kinds. The Japanese lost something like 350 aircraft. So, on the day, the Allies didn't manage 1:1 over Tokyo. It aint worth it, so I won't try that again. The P-51Hs performed exceedingly well, everything else fizzled.

On the 7th, the P-51Hs returned at 21k and the Shooting Stars at 45k. Both models did terrifically, downing enemy aircraft at 10:1 and better ratios. Until ops losses are counted. Overall, the Japanese lost 150 points over Tokyo, the Allies 50.

So the Allies will keep sweeping, looking for ratios that enhance, rather than detract from, victory.

Elsewhere: There were some big points infusions as the enemy army at Sapporo evaporated; and two big and battered enemy stacks in China got caught and beat up further. There are still some decent points remaining in China.

Hokkaido is clear now, except for Hakodate. Allied armor should arrive there in about three days. Enemy garrison is about 25k, and it's doubtful Erik will reinforce defeat. The Allies have 10k AV to call on.

Forward elements of Allied army on Okinawa arrived at Nago on the 7th. Reinforcing amphibious assault to commence tomorrow, as much to draw self-destructive enemy battery fire as anything.

Nago, Hakodate and Tusuyun may fall inside a week and likely will be sufficient to trigger victory. Kunming and Hong Kong will take longer, but are available if needed.



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/19/2020 3:43:29 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik can probably tell you more about the Ki-83 than I can, because there are so many uncertainties about what's going on.

In general, the Ki-83 killed everything when it arrived (late '44?). In the past six months to a year, it hasn't seemed more or less effective than any of the other top-notch IJ airframes.

Since early 1945, most Allied fighters have performed poorly in the sweep role and nearly all in the escort role. None of the Hellcats/Bearcats can handle enemy LBA in any way whatsoever. The P-47Ns were effective briefly when the came online (early '45?) but are now miserable critters, as are the P-38s and even the P-51Ds. The Navy Corsairs can still perform at about 1:1 in the sweep role. The P-51H model has been a huge surprise, doing very well sweeping (but its limited range is a drawback). The P-80 Shooting Star is a beast but ops losses seem fairly heavy. None of the other Western fighters are useful, including Corsairs, Thunderbolts and Spit VIIIs. The Tempest is very limited in numbers and doesn't do anything well. The P-82 Twin Mustang can't sweep and is a marginal escort.

Bottom line, the P-51H and Shooting Star can apparently handle anything. Anything else is 1:1 or worse.


How about the Fireball? Or is it not available in enough numbers?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/19/2020 4:12:34 AM)

Very scanty numbers for the Fireball. I have one squadron based at Heijo, Korea. It's performance has been underwhelming, to say the least. There aren't enough to fly escort, and it hasn't done well in the sweep role.



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/19/2020 1:07:31 PM)

quote:

...towards Victory...




[image]local://upfiles/55056/529E6A40B7EF44BC9551E077295521FF.gif[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/19/2020 2:56:07 PM)

Man, that gives me a headache just watching it!

How's things doin' in Alabama? And how's the old Montevallo grad?



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/20/2020 3:20:28 PM)

Thanks for asking, Tennessee now. Sitting here watching the snow fall.

The past year has been a blur. I've not done a turn in my game against the AI in over a year. A couple of times I did work on the turn. I've been getting my WitPAE fix by reading other's wars, usually on a device that I cannot use to leave comments.
The past year I've been with Level 3 juvenile detentions. The institution was just as messed up as the boys. After a 6 hour off and on riot, that I caused[:D], I've found a new job. Even though I've taken a pay cut, I really like what I do now.
I've enjoyed your AAR, and glad you are doing things your way.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/21/2020 1:09:32 AM)

The Volunteer State is a good place, too.

I've been working overtime on an incredibly rich story about a Georgian who attempted to manumit his slaves in 1853. His son-in-law stepped in an mixed things up good. It's an intimate, fascinating look at the complexities of life in the South in the 1850s. There was no black and white. There were only shades of gray.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/21/2020 1:16:30 AM)

2/8/46

Reaching for the Finish Line: The Allies are 2k from AV - Japan about 91K, Allies about 180k. Close enough that Erik broached the topic of the looming end for the first time. THere are not good bases set to fall sooner than Hakodate, which is probably a week away. But it's possible that bombing, effective sweeps and army losses could fill in the gap.

One Day over Tokyo: Some 300 P-51Hs swept Tokyo today, scoring a 3:1 victory. I rotate out the squadrons, so that every day there's that many or more sweeping. The Shooting STars will follow suit tomorrow, them at 45k and the -Hs at 20k. To this point, the -H has been master of the skies, both plentiful and effective. Erik might adjust by bringing in some of his other topnotch fighters. Right now the Shindens seem limited to Osaka. That could change soon.

Bases in Reach: Advance armor should arrive at Hakodate tomorrow. Erik isn't reinforcing and has less than 30k troops there. It won't stand very long. The Allied army is arriving at Nago, Okinawa, both by land and sea, utterly confusing Paul Revere, who ended up hanging seventeen lanterns from the tower at the Old North Church. General Gage wasn't amused and ordered him shot. Johnny Tremain hid him in the cellar and spilled molten silver on his left armpit, transfixing the hairs into one heckuva shiny coif. Just another day.



MakeeLearn -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/21/2020 1:33:36 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Volunteer State is a good place, too.

I've been working overtime on an incredibly rich story about a Georgian who attempted to manumit his slaves in 1853. His son-in-law stepped in an mixed things up good. It's an intimate, fascinating look at the complexities of life in the South in the 1850s. There was no black and white. There were only shades of gray.



Sounds interesting. When in college if I needed a class to fill full time hours I would take a literature class. I once won a play contest, I wrote a short play that took place on a farm in the south at the ending of the Civil War. While my posts do not show it, I'am a OK writer when I take the time. I use to write papers for people when in college.

Find some good obscure references on the times and write about "a road less traveled." There are some real things that happened that do not fit the "general thinking" of history.


If you get writer's block on the dialog, watch the movie Miller's Crossing, by the Coen brothers. The dialog in that movie fits well together and it SNAPS. Whether it's a paragraph or one word, it says what needs to be said from that person at that time.




Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/21/2020 2:17:02 PM)

We do not have access to television programming (no cable, satellite, internet, etc. service), but we do have a television set. Consequently, my children grew up watching (mostly) good movies on DVD or cassette.

One of those movies was Shenandoah, with Jimmy Stewart. It has some memorable lines, but my youngest son was the one who noticed one of them.

During the movie, the "Boy" (the youngest son in the family) is taken prisoner by the Yankees. He later escapes with a veteran Rebel. They make their way overland, evading capture. One morning they wake up to the sound of a nearby enemy camp fixing breakfast. They hear the utensils clinking and smell the bacon frying. Suddenly, the veteran soldier stands up and gives whoop. Startled, the Boy asks, "What are you doing?" The veteran replies, "'Em's country boys!" He knew they were Confederates.

After my son pointed that out, we would often use that declaration while backpacking the Appalachian Trail. Smell a good meal cooking, or hear nice folks conversing, and one of us was sure to announce, "'Em's country boys!"

[:)]



Mark VII -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/21/2020 2:48:39 PM)


Would that have been near Somerville at the John S. Wilder Youth Development Center? I remember reports of a disturbance back in September i think.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Thanks for asking, Tennessee now. Sitting here watching the snow fall.

The past year I've been with Level 3 juvenile detentions. The institution was just as messed up as the boys. After a 6 hour off and on riot, that I caused[:D],





RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/21/2020 8:11:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We do not have access to television programming (no cable, satellite, internet, etc. service), but we do have a television set. Consequently, my children grew up watching (mostly) good movies on DVD or cassette.

One of those movies was Shenandoah, with Jimmy Stewart. It has some memorable lines, but my youngest son was the one who noticed one of them.

During the movie, the "Boy" (the youngest son in the family) is taken prisoner by the Yankees. He later escapes with a veteran Rebel. They make their way overland, evading capture. One morning they wake up to the sound of a nearby enemy camp fixing breakfast. They hear the utensils clinking and smell the bacon frying. Suddenly, the veteran soldier stands up and gives whoop. Startled, the Boy asks, "What are you doing?" The veteran replies, "'Em's country boys!" He knew they were Confederates.

After my son pointed that out, we would often use that declaration while backpacking the Appalachian Trail. Smell a good meal cooking, or hear nice folks conversing, and one of us was sure to announce, "'Em's country boys!"

[:)]


I always did like that movie.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 4:11:26 PM)

There are some memorable scenes and lines in that movie. Among them: (1) Jimmy's "we cleared the ground, we planted it, we harvested the crops" prayer of self-reliance; (2) his dialogue with the man who comes to ask for the hand of Jimmy's daughter in marriage ("do you like her?"); and (3) the return of The Boy at the end, walking into the old church.

In college, a bunch of us boys once had a long, midnight discussion in the hallway about movies sufficiently moving to make one's eyes moist. An upperclassmen nominated that scene - the church service stopping as the door opens and The Boy hobbles in on crutches. He said, "That'll bring a tear to your eye." He was right. :)



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 4:18:49 PM)

2/9/46 and 2/10/46

Verging on Victory: The Allies need about 1k points now. Japan: 90,900. Allies 180,700.

The bulk of the progress the past two days was the capture of Tsuyung (a 300-denominator base, due to lack of supply, probably only gave Erik 150 points), another good P-51H sweep of Tokyo, and more enemy armies getting battered.

The opening deliberate attack at Hakodate, by lead armored units, came off at 1:1, dropped forts to 6, and resulted in disproportionate IJ casualties. That was by just 1500 Allied AV. Another 6700 AV arrive over the next two days. I think Hakodate will fall within four days. That should be the final straw.

If something goes awry there, Hong Kong's forts are down to 3, and it may fall in about a week (as a bunch of fresh units are inbound). Also, Kunming (another 300-denominator base) should fall inside 10 days.

A massive Allied army is at Shanghai, ready for the Allied amphibious assault on Moppo. It's highly unlikely this will be green-lighted, as the war should end before it could ever prove helpful.

In fact, I think the war would have already ended if not for that massive air raid on Tokyo a few turns back that gave Erik something like 500-600 points or so. I don't regret that, as I really wanted to get a feel for it for future consideration, when the next time comes.



jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 4:54:14 PM)

It is impressive that the Japanese have held on so long, against pretty much the rest of the world. It will be interesting to hear their side of the story once the official end comes.

You could stretch it out a few days with another big raid over Tokyo ... [:D]



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 5:12:10 PM)

Just send in the mini-DS to raid Tokyo . . . [8|]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 5:33:40 PM)

I see your "tongue in cheek," expressing the futility of such an exercise. Indeed, it would be the Reverse Marianas Turkey Shoot. Hellcats/Bearcats don't compete vs. enemy LBA. The torpedo bombers and dive bombers would suffer horrible fates, as well.

No more Raids Over Tokyo, this war. We'll have to await the next.

Massed Allied sweeps over Tokyo are doing great, scoring at anywhere from 3:1 to 10:1. But Erik still has 800 or more fighters there (and 1200+ at Osaka). It might takes months of good sweeps to inflict enough damage to allow effective daytime bombing, if ever.



jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 5:46:39 PM)

That's a great testimony to the job Erik has done holding his air defenses in solid shape. If we extrapolated this game to real life, I imagine the ultimatum to Japan would be: surrender or Tokyo gets nuked.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 5:56:50 PM)

That would be the ultimatum. But Tokyo's already been nuked twice. :)




jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 6:19:54 PM)

Ah, sorry, I didn't remember where you dropped them. [:o]



RangerJoe -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 7:53:22 PM)

The problem is, manpower was destroyed at Tokyo but the fires were not enormous. You would have been better off burning a cursed kimono. One was and the resulting fires killed about 100,000 people.

My suggestion was simply to prolong the game . . . [8|]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (2/24/2020 9:22:31 PM)

2/11/46

VJ Day! Japan surrenders. Hakodate is the straw the breaks the camel's back - heavy 4EB followed by a strong attack by armor takes the base 2-3 days quicker than expected. Strong P-51H and P-80 sweeps of Tokyo, plus an IJ army vaporizing near Hankow, helped.

The game ends with an 14k Allied AV at Shanghai waiting to board ships to invade Moppo. It would've been interesting to see how that went - just how strong Erik's attack would've been. He hasn't used kamikazes in more than six months, so I assume his force is pretty large and elite.

That's the trouble with the game ending. I've been playing as though it might go on forever. I have troops positioned and prepping; TFs afloat with supply and small invasion forces targeting places like Sorong; troops are moving by rail to new positions for overland attacks. ...and the game suddenly ends.

Now what will I do? [:(]



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