RE: Notes from a Small Island (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/27/2018 3:11:46 AM)

9/2/44

Confirmed Ships Sunk: Japan loses CA Mogami, six more DDs, and at least one sub. Allies lost CA Wichita, two CLs, about ten DDs, and a bunch of DEs.

By the end of the month, I expect the Allied airfields to be shut down, the Allies to have lost a great number of aircraft on the ground, and a host of ships fleeing Shikuka to go under. It will be ugly. I do not expect Erik to be able to reconquer Shikuka (and most likely not Toyohara).

If the Allies win the carrier battle that looms, then this will have been a very costly battle that possible made the carrier victory possible. If the Allies lose the carrier battle, I may be like General Vandegrift in the jungle at Guadalcanal, drawing up surrender plans, swearing Merrill Twining to secrecy.

I feel pretty good about the chances for the carrier battle. I already did, but what's going on with enemy subs, enemy cruisers, and enemy aircraft should be helpful.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/2CE97E229EE54E73A13FA221C628475D.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 3:23:43 AM)

9/3/44

Battle of Shikuka: Another hard-fought, scrappy 2-1 victory for the Allies. Most of Eric's TFs are out of ammo; most of mine are too. Some of my guys finally made it back to Shikuka and replenished. I can offer one CA/CL TF, one big DD TF, and one small DD TF, augmented by mines and scores of PT boats. That's not enough, but it might buy a few days.

Allied PT boats put a fish into CL Isuzu. A sub put four fish into CL Kitakami. Enemy forces returned the favor by putting a fish in CL Santa Fe and nearly finishing off CA Boston.

In the air, the Allies prevailed 2.5:1 against massed sweeps by Georges, Franks, and Jacks. My guys are pretty gassed now. Eric's lost 1000 planes in three days; his guys may need a bit of R&R.

It is likely that Eric will marshall his forces, replenish, and send another host against my meager defenses. If he blows through the ships and bombards airfield, the end will be in sight.

The CVEs are down to 18 days on the upgrades. (Drat the timing on that. Drat it! I don't think Eric timed this battle to coincide with CVE upgrades - I think he timed it for the full moon. But what timing!)

KB: Some of Eric's big combat TFs are still loitering around out here without ammo; that suits me. Half of KB is stationed east of Shikuka, halfway to the Kuriles, to prevent egress. The other half is west of Sikhalin.

Egress? With a modest combat fleet to guard Shikuka, I'm not ready to pull the egress trigger quite yet. What I really hope is that I can somehow squeeze out about four more days. That depends mostly on whether Erik's been able to replenish a stout combat TF or two or six.

Ship Losses: In looking over ship losses yesterday, I came away a bit discouraged about the overall condition of the Japanese fleet. In this battle, Erik has lost at least 7 CLs with at least one more damaged; that's fully 1/3rd of his light cruiser fleet. He's lost 1 CA, bringing the total to 9; he has 18 total for the game, so not quite a crisis there. A handful of other CAs have been damaged thus far, but none seriously. None of his BBs has been touched in this clash. He still has 10 of the 12. I think 25-30 of his subs have been sunk or pretty heavily damaged in this clash. He gets 150 in the game, and I'd guesstimate he's lost about 60; so alot left. He gets about 235 DDs and has, by my reckoning, lost perhaps 65; again, he has a zillion left. So his navy is stout for this late in the game. His only real weakness is in cruisers.





witpqs -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:04:02 AM)

You must be confused. The Egress is an extinct flightless bird.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:23:28 AM)

Today I was editing a book written by an acquaintance. She noted that farmers in a certain valley prone to flooding had "ebbed" out a living. I went back to her and asked if "eked" was the word she was looking for.

Words are funny things.

Now, the only bird that, to my knowledge, comes close to sounding like "egress" is "egret." There are plenty of them flying around and perching and standing and doing whatever else egrets do. In America, we have the great egret (f/k/a American egret), snowy egret, cattle egret, and probably a few others I'm not remembering at the moment.



crsutton -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:26:21 AM)

Silver lining, you probably have sunk more Japanese ships that you think you have. There are always those that go down that do not make the damage report. Also, you have pretty well massacred his pilots with very few of your own dead or wounded. I do like his all or nothing gambit. It is what many Japanese players avoid doing and I think there comes a point in every campaign when the Japanese player must decide to go "all-in." I guess I don't have to tell you that only a fool would send all of his CVEs into the yard for upgrades at the same time...[:D] I think you should be OK. Like Auchinleck in Operation Crusader, you will just have to accept your losses and keep grinding. Sooner or later you should come out on top.



Drakanel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 6:18:14 AM)

I had actually foreseen something like this might happen. Since you had been away with your carriers for so long, and his navy was still relatively intact.

I also thought you had some more surface TFs at Shikuka, especially regarding battleships and CAs/CLs. Still, so far the losses you suffered are not that high. You can absorb them.
Now, if he decides to stay and does manage to get all your merchant fleet parked there, that's a big lump of VPs which will serve him well going forward.

Really looking forward to the next turns [8D]



witpqs -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 7:34:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today I was editing a book written by an acquaintance. She noted that farmers in a certain valley prone to flooding had "ebbed" out a living. I went back to her and asked if "eked" was the word she was looking for.

Words are funny things.

Now, the only bird that, to my knowledge, comes close to sounding like "egress" is "egret." There are plenty of them flying around and perching and standing and doing whatever else egrets do. In America, we have the great egret (f/k/a American egret), snowy egret, cattle egret, and probably a few others I'm not remembering at the moment.


Now that you bring facts into this AAR I know you're confused! ([;)])
You must rally your loyal electrons! "We will fight them on the map. We will fight them in the pwhex. We will fight them in the replay. We will fight them in the combat report itself! We will never egress!!!"

[:D]



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 3:05:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today I was editing a book written by an acquaintance. She noted that farmers in a certain valley prone to flooding had "ebbed" out a living. I went back to her and asked if "eked" was the word she was looking for.

Words are funny things.

Now, the only bird that, to my knowledge, comes close to sounding like "egress" is "egret." There are plenty of them flying around and perching and standing and doing whatever else egrets do. In America, we have the great egret (f/k/a American egret), snowy egret, cattle egret, and probably a few others I'm not remembering at the moment.


Now that you bring facts into this AAR I know you're confused! ([;)])
You must rally your loyal electrons! "We will fight them on the map. We will fight them in the pwhex. We will fight them in the replay. We will fight them in the combat report itself! We will never egress!!!"

[:D]

But perhaps we could still regress and regret ...[sm=00000619.gif]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 3:50:34 PM)

9/4/44

Day Four, Battle of Shikuka: Again, the Allies eke (not ebb) out a scrappy victory against overwhelming odds. The day begins with this little clash a hex SE of Shikuka. The enemy CA TF is low on ammo and hanging around probably to maintain some order while most of Erik's combat ships are probably replenishing (the positioning of this TF might be mean to block egress by the Herd, confusing and scattering them).

We all know what's going to happen here. Even I do. I do even while I focus on the day-to-day, trying to stay in a game in which I'm terribly outmatched. I'm hoping against hope that I'll buy enough time for something good to happen. So each day is a little game within itself. But Erik isn't playing a day-to-day game. He's focused on the big picture - the series - and will soon bring overwhelming force to bear. His chances for a stunning victory are high. But all I can do is play it day-to-day.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E6B957C5E17D43D6A65E5C6562D544C2.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 3:55:29 PM)

9/4/44

Fletcher Goes Down: This DD TF has been of ammo and stuck well outside Shikuka for days. Erik sent so much on the opening day that it drained ammo coffers, prompting most of my TFs to flee when his bombardment TFs arrived. Several TFs never made it back to Shikuka to re-arm, but a few did yesterday, giving me some hope that I might be able to withstand one more attack in some form or fashion.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/4A99EA65CE964C5CA8134C0A30848C0D.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 3:59:43 PM)

9/4/44

Maya Torpedoed: Hey, another dividend paid. I fast-forwarded through the combat (I have to, or I'd be sitting at my computer for three hours for each turn), but this must've hit the vitals, because later (and without further damage to the CA, I think), she goes down, confirmed by a message and by the loss of her floatplanes.

So Mogami and Maya confirmed sunk, along with at least seven CLs.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/D11F6588ED2B4414B0CB0A2C17D5C448.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:02:59 PM)

9/2/44

Suzunami Sunk: Keep scrapping, boys. This enemy TF is also posted SE of Shikuka, in an apparent blocking position.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0AAB674EF3BE4718B96AB7640281ABC6.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:07:37 PM)

9/4/44

PTs vs. PBs: They keep scrapping. This also takes place a hex SE of Shikuka. Erik has no doubt that the Herd is going to flush. He's bringing everything back. I think my best chance is to hope my remaining combat ships (plus mines, subs, and PT TFs) might parry one more thrust somewhat effectively. If that happens, I may have bought enough time to mix up the equation a bit.

In addition to the combats I've shown thus far, there are others. Many are low-ammo affairs between small fry, with each side losing an occasional PT or SC or something of the sort.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/F12C4EC22E35425C97F906E948465584.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:11:39 PM)

9/4/44

RO-110: He's losing a lot of subs, mostly to mines but also some to ASW TFs, plus a couple to USN sub attacks.

I think Erik still has a ton of subs left, but this battle is reducing the muster roll in a measurable way. Erik is very good with subs vs. combat ships and carriers, so the attrition may prove useful later.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/7644E3F86A0C4C2F9EBA1395E0B219E8.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:15:15 PM)

9/4/44

Maya Confirmation: This news was unexpected and therefore all-the-more delightful.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/02BDF59D46614AA2A0A0D3124049E83D.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:27:05 PM)

9/4/44

Minelaying: Shikuka is well-mined, but each night I send out a DM or two, and a sub or two, to sew mines in the open ocean to the south. The subs do their jobs quietly. The DMs are basically on suicide runs. Thus far, none have been sunk, but the amount of enemy shipping "spooks" them and prevents them from laying mines.

I don't know if Erik has lost enough riff-raff to impede his ability to flood the zone. From this seat it always seems like Japan has unlimited numbers of riff-raff, just like aircraft.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/10CF2C2103D84B23819152E9F2F493C4.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 4:47:01 PM)

9/4/44

RO-115: I have something like 750 mines at Shikuka, about 300 of them new. But of late it seems that Erik's shipping (subs included) avoids the mines. I know the field is known, so that may be a problem going forward. If his combat ships don't have to worry about mines, "eek."

Towards the end of the turn, DM Pruitt went down.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/8F5F7E1FC12F4B74AF15E694DA931A22.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 5:09:04 PM)

I expect that Maya was heavily damaged in the previous fighting so the single torpedo was enough to start chain flooding and uncontrollable fires. No matter the cause, it sure helps balance the scales on losses.
Your PT skippers should all get medals!

Here's praying that you get to replenish your SCTFs before his top up and return. [sm=innocent0001.gif]



witpqs -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 5:11:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/4/44

RO-115: I have something like 750 mines at Shikuka, about 300 of them new. But of late it seems that Erik's shipping (subs included) avoids the mines. I know the field is known, so that may be a problem going forward. If his combat ships don't have to worry about mines, "eek."

Towards the end of the turn, DM Pruitt went down.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/8F5F7E1FC12F4B74AF15E694DA931A22.jpg[/image]

My understanding is (and sorry for any errors in my understanding): The game keeps track of 'mine fields' in a hex. BTW if there is a base there may also be some weighting in the algorithms of the fields being at/near the base so TF passing by less (or maybe not??) likely to hit them. Once a 'field' is found that side is less likely (or maybe not likely at all??) to hit it. BTW AFAIK each mine laying ship/sub in a mine laying TF lays its own 'field'.

So to keep them hitting mines keep laying new mine fields.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 6:00:29 PM)

9/4/44


Air War: Erik mostly stood down his air force today, having taken heavy losses over the four days. Most of my fighter squadrons badly disabled by his nuclear bombardment are coming back online. The Allied AF can put up a decent amount of fighters again, pending the imminent return of IJN BBs.

Fortress Shikuka: My nav search isn't picking up the heart of the enemy combat power. For all I know, they may be right on the doorstep, ready to deal carnage tomorrow. From what I can glean of what I do see, it seems like he hasn't regathered his ships yet. At least some of his power seems scattered from near Shikuka down to the Kuriles. A CV TF is now SOUTH of the Kuriles. Why, I do not know. A big TF reported as many BBs is east of Shikuka perhaps 8 hexes, in a blocking position. I think that's probably two CV TFs.

I have two good combat TFs at Shikuka fully re-armed, complimented by dozens of PT boats (I only have 25 left in the pool now), mines, an subs. I'm laying more mines each turn. I've created two DMS "combat" TFs, hoping to engage some of the enemy ships that are low on or out of ammo. I've created a bunch of other "chaff on the radar screen" TFs at Shikuka, from damaged PT boats to xAKs to LSTs. Some TKs are unloading (I have a ton of them at Shikuka, with fuel, but only dare unload a few at a time).

Erik has a few subs (or more?) over towards the Aleutians, sniffing for an Allied response. I'm giving him ticklers out there - some YMS, a DD TF, etc. I don't know exactly what he'll deduce, but I'm trying to feed a notion that he seems to have.

Does he know where my carriers are? Is he sure or does he suspect my CVEs were upgrading? Is he sure of himself?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 6:14:51 PM)

9/4/44

Battle of Shikuka: A colorful, messy, confusing map.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/93FF0F934AE441E8BB3740BC87F379EF.jpg[/image]



jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 6:42:11 PM)

Kudos to both of you for a thrilling game here. Erik is doing exactly the opposite of your previous opponent, deducing rightly IMHO that this is the time for all forces to be committed. I'm anxious to see your carriers return, as no doubt all your e-troops on Sakhalin are as well. Good luck!



BBfanboy -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 7:41:08 PM)

From that picture I'm guessing the CVE TF at Ominato is replenishing aircraft and maybe pilots.

I take the CVs south of Etorofu to be in a safe blocking position where your CVs or SCTFs should not be able to surprise them and subs are not so plentiful. At the same time it can sprint E or NE to intercept your merchant TFs if they flee.

Seems like overall he is re-gathering his strength for another run at Shikuka, or preparing to escort troops to Toyohara.

Are you sure about that CD unit on the little island E of PJ? In stock there is no base there and your map does not show even a dot there?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 7:48:38 PM)

I don't see Eric invading in the short-term. I have 2,300 AV at Toyohara behind 7 forts in wooded terrain. I have 9,000 AV on Shikuka behind 8 forts in clear terrain.

He doesn't know exactly how much I have, but he can make some good deductions.

The only way he could counterinvade would be to destroy supply and have unfettered access to bombard for a long time. He's not there yet, and my carriers will be ready before he could really take meaningful steps to that end.

Perhaps I'm misreading things, as I've done before, but I don't foresee him doing that unless he's able to neutralize the threat posed by my carriers.



witpqs -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/28/2018 8:01:09 PM)

quote:

I take the CVs south of Etorofu to be in a safe blocking position where your CVs or SCTFs should not be able to surprise them and subs are not so plentiful. At the same time it can sprint E or NE to intercept your merchant TFs if they flee.

They are expecting a flock of egress but there are no more egress! [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/29/2018 1:09:54 AM)

9/5/44

Battle of Shikuka: After four days of mayhem and carnage, today was remarkably quiet. Allied ships sink a bunch of MTBs and enemy fighters down a fair number of Allied fighters, but suddenly the "radar screen" shows no enemy activity threatening Shikuka.

It was a taut, low-scoring game. Where are the enemy big boys?


[image]local://upfiles/8143/0F9A4F8D8727484988664DC63804F24C.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/29/2018 1:17:10 AM)

9/5/44

CVE Upgrades: Can they finish in time to lend a hand?

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0D62EAF4303243A6A4C28D464E541F00.jpg[/image]



Reg -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/29/2018 3:07:03 AM)


I am picturing the Harbour Master trying to arrange fifty pier side upgrades (that's a lot of dock space....) with the CiC yelling at him over the phone wanting his boats back........ [X(] [:D]




Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/29/2018 12:50:32 PM)

The situation with, and timing of, the CVE upgrades is remarkable. Newcomers may wonder, "What the heck? Why put them all into upgrades at the same time?" That's what Ross was getting at a page or so back.

But it actually made sense to get them into the yards as soon as possible so that I could get them out as soon as possible. Four damaged CVs were in various yards, three of which would be repaired on or around September 20. Another reinforcing CV would arrive from Balboa at about the same time. I had previously decided Death Star wouldn't go into action until those four additional CVs were available. So it made sense to get all the CVEs upgraded at once. Then, voila!, both CVs and CVEs would be ready at the same time.

I think these upgrades double AA for each ship by 400 points or so - an aggregate of some 20,000 AA points. Since I forsaw the possibility of Death Star taking on KB supplemented by massed LBA at and around the Kuriles, this seemed essential. And Erik hadn't shown any indication of attacking in the past three months. If he attacked in a week or two or three, all the better to get those upgrades behind me.

But he attacked the very day they went into the shipyards.





witpqs -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (4/29/2018 5:00:12 PM)

There are so many variables it's always easy to second guess those upgrades, but they are massive, critical upgrades for the CVE's and should make a big difference.



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