RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (Full Version)

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Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 8:32:26 AM)

Turn 48, 12/3/41, AGS

The frontline has been relatively quiet in the recent days. New enemy units are arriving near Kharkov. We have four mobile divisions in reserve.

Our southern flank is exposed. Railheads are too far, and the supply situation is really bad. Troops are weary after Stalino offensive.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/1756C90B11FD4D1E8F82F2D12E7F549C.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 9:01:21 AM)

Turn 49, 12/7/41, AGN

Soviet winter offensive begins. The enemy attacks again against 30th Infantry Division. This time we can’t hold our positions. 30th infantry withdraws.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/3B2018BA2D97418F9EE3A292B3C1A180.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 9:14:00 AM)

Turn 49, 12/7/41, AGC

Past weeks have been just probing attacks, now the offensive is really beginning. The enemy takes huge losses and they have very little success. We have to give ground in two places, near Istra and near Kaluga. Orders are to limit losses and maintain cohesion in all circumstances.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/1647C1C2F37B454B998AB396603226D2.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 9:58:54 AM)

Turn 50, 12/10/41, AGC

18th Panzer Division was attacked seven times during the last three days. The total enemy losses were enormous, about 3500 squads and countless number of other equipment. 18th Pz losses were about 30 rifle squads. The division used all supplies and was completely exhausted. Division moved to Medyn for rest and 15th Infantry Division took its place in the front.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/96EB9D3C166A419B9633AA956E4E70F1.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 10:06:33 AM)

Turn 50, 12/10/41, AGC

Breakthrough near Volokolamsk. SS Totenkopf retreats.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/1B32C572A55941FF8B45DB6DEE73ABDB.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 12:47:26 PM)

Turn 50, 12/10/41, AGC

1st Panzer division attacks against the enemy breakthrough near Volokolamsk. The enemy units are destroyed, and our troops take back old positions.

7th Flieger Division is still holding Kalinin and important Leningrad-Moscow railroad.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/BA7D63C05E4244E0A655E341EAE7CE8F.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 12:54:21 PM)

Turn 50, 12/10/41, AGS

Heavy attacks on the AGS sector. Our troops withdraw in three places.

There is a dangerous breakthrough near Kramatorsk. We don’t have reserves in this area.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/1B0684C06A784D5BAF010987AD966C65.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 1:11:26 PM)

Turn 51, 12/14/41, AGC

The enemy offensive continues. There is a 20 km deep breakthrough near Kaluga. 2nd Panzer Division is going to make a counterattack.

Our troops withdraw near Medyn and Naro Fominsk.

The enemy is trying to capture Mitsensk on our southern flank. 2nd Panzer Armee is pushed back 10 km.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/B9D044C0EB6A4C189B16F19D334C9742.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (1/31/2018 1:14:42 PM)

Turn 51, 12/14/41, AGC

2nd Panzer Division counterattacks near Kaluga. The enemy suffers heavy tank losses. Frontline is restored.

[image]local://upfiles/53085/5DD523BE0987466C8896AD3C6722A2EA.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/1/2018 10:13:40 AM)

Situation on 12/10/41 after 50 turns.

The enemy major offensive has been going on for a week. The situation is so far under control on all sectors.

Severe weather is slowing rail repair work.

Krim is captured. 11th Armee is moving towards Stalino.

Losses in the first 50 turns: (last 5 turns in parenthesis)

31680 (+4590) Heavy Rifle Squads
3913 (+640) Rifle Squad – Rum
374 (+102) Rifle Squad – Hun
2621 (+540) Rifle Squad – Fin
220 (+39) Rifle Squad - Ita
4210 (+699) Engineer Squads
959 (+101) Panzers (all types)
1289 (+187) Fighters (all types)
203 (+3) Stukas
1427 (+242) Bombers (all types)

Railroads are on the map in cyan. Planned rail lines are in dotted lines.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/DF3D609FB3FC494CB29D81F060F301AB.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/1/2018 10:53:26 AM)

Situation on 12/28/41 after 55 turns.

The enemy major offensive has been going on for three weeks. We have lost very little ground and our losses are relatively light. Kalinin was lost on 24th of December. Our line is intact, and the situation is under control on all sectors.

The enemy losses must be at least 50000 squads in three weeks. The offensive is still going on, but the tempo of enemy operations is slowing.

Severe weather is hampering our supply flow and slowing rail repair work.

Losses in the first 55 turns: (last 5 turns in parenthesis)

34410 (+2730) Heavy Rifle Squads
4196 (+283) Rifle Squad – Rum
459 (+82) Rifle Squad – Hun
3040 (+419) Rifle Squad – Fin
251 (+31) Rifle Squad - Ita
4706 (+496) Engineer Squads
984 (+25) Panzers (all types)
1374 (+85) Fighters (all types)
206 (+3) Stukas
1539 (+112) Bombers (all types)

Railroads are on the map in cyan. Planned rail lines are in dotted lines.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/9E8D06B855B44BE89DCA9EB90EFB22E6.jpg[/image]



Kursk1943 -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/1/2018 1:48:18 PM)

How do you feel about your decision to build the rail first into the Crimea and only yafterwards towards Stalino instead of doing it the other way round?



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/1/2018 7:20:01 PM)

quote:

How do you feel about your decision to build the rail first into the Crimea and only yafterwards towards Stalino instead of doing it the other way round?


I think it was a right decision. If I had built the rail towards Stalino, I could not still have taken Rostov before the winter. Crimean campaign would have been postponed to spring 1942. It’s not possible to take Sevastopol without good supply.

Now I got Sevastopol AND Stalino (at the last possible moment). 11th Armee is free to operate. Supply near Stalino is terrible, but the enemy is weak and I’m holding the line. If I lose Stalino it won’t matter industry is already destroyed.



Kursk1943 -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/1/2018 7:43:19 PM)

Many consider the Crimea as a side show, but your reasoning is really valid. You've got a secure flank and freeing 11th Army seems to be the greatest benefit to me.



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/2/2018 11:47:47 AM)

Situation on 1/14/42 after 60 turns.

The enemy major offensive is over. We have lost very little ground and our losses are relatively light. The enemy has suffered severe losses on the Moscow front, our troops in the area are in good shape. OKH is proposing a counteroffensive. Codename: Operation Jägerschnitzel.

Severe weather is hampering our supply flow and slowing rail repair work.

Losses in the first 60 turns: (last 5 turns in parenthesis)
37505 (+3095) Heavy Rifle Squads
4553 (+357) Rifle Squad – Rum
568 (+109) Rifle Squad – Hun
3523 (+485) Rifle Squad – Fin
291 (+40) Rifle Squad - Ita
5279 (+573) Engineer Squads
1009 (+25) Panzers (all types)
1519 (+145) Fighters (all types)
212 (+6) Stukas
1707 (+168) Bombers (all types)

Railroads are on the map in cyan. Planned rail lines are in dotted lines.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/75910CB8E1E6495EB31A12052FD37682.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/2/2018 12:16:11 PM)

Turn 60, 1/14/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

The enemy offensive is over. It’s time for counterattack. We are going to do two envelopments.

Volokolamsk envelopment

The enemy has been attacking hard towards Volokolamsk. Last few days several enemy units have evaporated when attacking. They have reached breaking point. 1st Panzer Division and SS Totenkopf are going to attack NE towards Klin. When the town is captured our troops will move NW towards Kalinin. 14th Mot, 28th Mot and 12th Pz are going to follow in the second wave.

Kaluga Envelopment, Northern pincer

The enemy has been attacking hard near Naro Fominsk area. Last few days several enemy units have evaporated when attacking. They have reached breaking point. Our toops are going to attack SE. The first objectives are Naro Fomisk and Obninsk. Then Panzers are going to move to Serpukhov and Aleksin. We have 5 full strength panzer divisions available.

Kaluga Envelopment, Southern pincer

The enemy has suffered massive losses near Likhvin. 10th Panzer Division is going to capture Likhvin and continue to NE towards Aleksin. 2nd Pz, 18th Pz and 10th Motorized are going to follow right behind.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/4437443D91844E64AA102511D7C28B6D.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/2/2018 5:41:01 PM)

Turn 61, 1/18/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

The first stage of the offensive was a complete success. The enemy was completely surprised. They didn’t expect a counter offensive so soon. The enemy command structure seems to be paralyzed. Our intelligence believes the Soviet high command was drinking vodka in some remote dacha. (There was a shift of initiative after the first turn of the offensive.)

Volokolamsk envelopment

The enemy frontline was breached and 1st Panzer Division captured Klin. Now we’ll attack north towards Volga and seal the pocket.

Kaluga envelopment

The enemy frontline shatters and our troops move forward. Naro Fominsk and Likhvin are captured. Now it’s time to move Panzers through the gaps.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/B20D26E135644D2ABFF4E8F789237795.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/3/2018 6:28:33 PM)

Turn 62, 1/21/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

Decisive battle is going on near Moscow. Situation is chaotic, the winner of this massive battle is still unclear.

Our southern pincer advanced north to the rear of Russian line. 18th Panzer division captured Kaluga and then attacked Soviet Reserve Front HQ 30 km north of Kaluga. Forward elements of 18th Pz reached outskirts of Aleksin. Meanwhile the northern pincer captured Obninsk, Serpukhov and Podolsk. Pincers closed the pocket near Aleksin. The whole Soviet Reserve Front with 44 formations was enveloped.

The enemy counterattack was furious. 49th Army attacked from Tula region towards Kaluga. 112th Tank Division was able to penetrate our flank and advance all the way to the rear of our 2nd and 18th Panzer Divisions. At the same time Reserve Front began breakout towards Aleksin. 2nd Pz had to withdraw. The enemy managed to open road to Aleksin. 2nd and 18th Panzer Divisions are isolated.

In the North near Kalinin the situation is much better. 1st Pz attacked north all the way to the Volga River. 27 enemy formations were trapped between Volokolamsk and Kalinin. Meanwhile 14th and 20th Motorized Divisions advanced to the Moscow-Volga Canal. Dubna was captured. The enemy counterattacked over Volga, but they couldn’t break out.

This has been a real nail biter. First there was a shift of initiative and I got two turns. Then shift again, two turns for Elmer! TOAW 4 is a great game!


[image]local://upfiles/53085/1B74132304E648A6AA9F1C1047B6A119.jpg[/image]



TPOO -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/4/2018 2:56:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jukipo

Turn 62, 1/21/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

Decisive battle is going on near Moscow. Situation is chaotic, the winner of this massive battle is still unclear.

Our southern pincer advanced north to the rear of Russian line. 18th Panzer division captured Kaluga and then attacked Soviet Reserve Front HQ 30 km north of Kaluga. Forward elements of 18th Pz reached outskirts of Aleksin. Meanwhile the northern pincer captured Obninsk, Serpukhov and Podolsk. Pincers closed the pocket near Aleksin. The whole Soviet Reserve Front with 44 formations was enveloped.

The enemy counterattack was furious. 49th Army attacked from Tula region towards Kaluga. 112th Tank Division was able to penetrate our flank and advance all the way to the rear of our 2nd and 18th Panzer Divisions. At the same time Reserve Front began breakout towards Aleksin. 2nd Pz had to withdraw. The enemy managed to open road to Aleksin. 2nd and 18th Panzer Divisions are isolated.

In the North near Kalinin the situation is much better. 1st Pz attacked north all the way to the Volga River. 27 enemy formations were trapped between Volokolamsk and Kalinin. Meanwhile 14th and 20th Motorized Divisions advanced to the Moscow-Volga Canal. Dubna was captured. The enemy counterattacked over Volga, but they couldn’t break out.

This has been a real nail biter. First there was a shift of initiative and I got two turns. Then shift again, two turns for Elmer! TOAW 4 is a great game!


[image]local://upfiles/53085/1B74132304E648A6AA9F1C1047B6A119.jpg[/image]


This is an excellent AAR for the scenario. Very much appreciated. Your use of the Axis rail supply system was masterful and how it was intended to work. I did not think that the Axis could attempt an offensive in Winter 1941 so maybe I have to toughen Elmer up a bit in the next version?[:)] The hardest part is trying to get Elmer to do practical things. There will be another update in a few weeks with trying to tweak Elmer's programming to the better.
Good job, Thank you.



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/4/2018 4:47:41 PM)

quote:

This is an excellent AAR for the scenario. Very much appreciated. Your use of the Axis rail supply system was masterful and how it was intended to work. I did not think that the Axis could attempt an offensive in Winter 1941 so maybe I have to toughen Elmer up a bit in the next version? The hardest part is trying to get Elmer to do practical things. There will be another update in a few weeks with trying to tweak Elmer's programming to the better.
Good job, Thank you.


Thank you for your compliments. I could attempt winter offensive because of several reasons:

1. I had captured Leningrad. Troops were transferred to AGC.
2. I was ahead of schedule in fall, because 2nd Pz Armee didn't participate the Battle of Kiev.
3. I entrenched a solid defensive line during rasputitza and didn't continue towards Moscow in November.
4. I knew Soviets would attack in december, German high command thought the victory was in sight.

I had all these advantages over historical situation and I still couldn't take Moscow. It was not even near. I have a feeling I can't win this war during 1942. Maybe 1943, we shall see...

I think this scenario is very well balanced. I know the east front quite well. I have played several Barbarossa games WITE, HOI3, Decisive Campaigns: Barbarossa, etc.

One thing to improve comes to my mind. If the rasputitza would be a little less severe, the axis player would have temptation to go on and overextend. I would have continued in october if I had had even a little supply. I had no supply, so it was easy decision to stop and dig in. If I had continued the offensive the result would have been a disaster at the gates of Moscow.

Thank you for a great scenario!





TPOO -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/4/2018 6:59:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Jukipo

quote:

This is an excellent AAR for the scenario. Very much appreciated. Your use of the Axis rail supply system was masterful and how it was intended to work. I did not think that the Axis could attempt an offensive in Winter 1941 so maybe I have to toughen Elmer up a bit in the next version? The hardest part is trying to get Elmer to do practical things. There will be another update in a few weeks with trying to tweak Elmer's programming to the better.
Good job, Thank you.


Thank you for your compliments. I could attempt winter offensive because of several reasons:

1. I had captured Leningrad. Troops were transferred to AGC.
2. I was ahead of schedule in fall, because 2nd Pz Armee didn't participate the Battle of Kiev.
3. I entrenched a solid defensive line during rasputitza and didn't continue towards Moscow in November.
4. I knew Soviets would attack in december, German high command thought the victory was in sight.

I had all these advantages over historical situation and I still couldn't take Moscow. It was not even near. I have a feeling I can't win this war during 1942. Maybe 1943, we shall see...

I think this scenario is very well balanced. I know the east front quite well. I have played several Barbarossa games WITE, HOI3, Decisive Campaigns: Barbarossa, etc.

One thing to improve comes to my mind. If the rasputitza would be a little less severe, the axis player would have temptation to go on and overextend. I would have continued in october if I had had even a little supply. I had no supply, so it was easy decision to stop and dig in. If I had continued the offensive the result would have been a disaster at the gates of Moscow.

Thank you for a great scenario!




I Agree there needs to be an adjustment to Rasputitza as the Germans did gain some territory during this period especially in the South. It is just hard to make it balanced in TOAW. In TOAW3 in was impossible so a cease fire event had to be used. Fortunately we have a couple of new events to try to simulate mud turns. I will be tweaking this a little in the next version. There was no basis to make a judgement on what would work until the release as there was no real play testing. Now that a few AAR's are up there is some data.



larryfulkerson -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/5/2018 12:26:46 AM)

quote:


Decisive battle is going on near Moscow. Situation is chaotic, the winner of this massive
battle is still unclear.

I absolutely love your AAR and I'm amazed and enthralled that you have been able to acomplish
so much so soon. Now I have a target to try to emulate next time I start another game. At
last somebody who knows what he's doing. I'd love to watch one of your combat replay movies
to see how you handle your units. I'm going to pay attention to your gaming career.



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/5/2018 12:31:34 PM)

Turn 63, 1/25/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

The battle near Kaluga is turning to our favour. The forces of Soviet Reserve Front are surrounded again. Our troops attack from all directions and the pocket is divided to three parts.

Meanwhile our forces are attacking against the enemy units enveloped near Volokolamsk.

OKH is moving reserves to our southern flank. 36th Motorized Division arrives by train near Kozelsk from Leningrad front.

Another double turn for me. The picture shows the situation in the beginning of turn 63. Before I have moved anybody.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/9215C20D473F40EABF2914DA8110A831.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/5/2018 1:01:25 PM)

Turn 63, 1/26/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

We are attacking enveloped units. It’s only a matter of time before all surrounded units are destroyed.

Meanwhile near Podolsk south of Moscow our panzer divisions are assaulting a fortified line. By the end of turn we have captured a 30km wide section of the vital Moscow bunker line.

On the south flank we are concentrating fresh panzer and motorized units near Belyov.

The picture shows the situation near the end of turn 63 after two consecutive axis turns.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/9CABDC662DCA4FA3AE290998BCCBE1E7.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/5/2018 1:15:15 PM)

Turn 64, 1/28/42, AGC

Another initiative shift. The picture shows soviet attacks on turns 63 and 64.

10th Motorized Division had to retreat near Kaluga. The division suffered 50% casualties.

[image]local://upfiles/53085/A634E5C837CD4A659096B284A16C7B1D.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/6/2018 6:30:17 AM)

Turn 65, 2/1/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel has reached all its objectives. We managed to surround and destroy several enemy armies. We have excellent positions north and south of Moscow. However, it’s not possible to encircle the city yet. Our troops are tired, and the supply situation is difficult. We are going to stabilize the situation on the Moscow front and refit our panzer divisions. The attack will continue on the southern flank. The next objective is Tula.


[image]local://upfiles/53085/65722FEAC58043119D08FA0BDC8FD840.jpg[/image]



Jukipo -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/6/2018 6:49:01 AM)

Situation on 2/1/42 after 65 turns.

Operation Jägerschnitzel is over. Situations is stabilizing on the Moscow front. The attack will continue on the southern flank of AGC. The next objective is Tula.

Other sections of the frontline remain stable. Some enemy attacks and artillery barrages, nothing serious.

Severe weather is hampering our supply flow and slowing rail repair work.

Losses in the first 65 turns: (last 5 turns in parenthesis)

41959 (+4454) Heavy Rifle Squads
4899 (+346) Rifle Squad – Rum
673 (+105) Rifle Squad – Hun
3933 (+408) Rifle Squad – Fin
330 (+39) Rifle Squad - Ita
6014 (+735) Engineer Squads
1110 (+101) Panzers (all types)
1628 (+109) Fighters (all types)
225 (+13) Stukas
1805 (+98) Bombers (all types)

Railroads are on the map in cyan. We have finally repaired a railway link between AGN and Finland. We have a new rail strategy. There are the five lines we are going to repair:

1. Rzhev – Moscow
2. Sukhinichi - Podolsk
3. Kiev – Kursk
4. Kiev – Kharkov
5. Crimea – Stalino



[image]local://upfiles/53085/DFD0242D0E144BDC85702C2B4D1EBB09.jpg[/image]



Nicholas Bell -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/7/2018 9:30:39 PM)

quote:


I Agree there needs to be an adjustment to Rasputitza as the Germans did gain some territory during this period especially in the South. It is just hard to make it balanced in TOAW. In TOAW3 in was impossible so a cease fire event had to be used. Fortunately we have a couple of new events to try to simulate mud turns.


Rick-
Would it possible to add a variable start date for mud? That would both provide opportunity for the German player to stick his neck out with possible good or bad results.

As I have mentioned elsewhere, the 1941 winter season was not only especially harsh, it was somewhat early also. Contrast that with the winter of 1943 where the mud didn't start until November 15th (The Soviet offensive at Nevel was conducted on dry ground for example) and the snow waited until mid-December. One can only imagine that the Germans would have been in Moscow had 1941 been as mild as 1943. Whether they could have hung on to it is another question.

Having the Rasputitza possibly start between the end of September and the later half of November would be realistic and add a lot of uncertainty.

Jukipo-
Always looking forward to your updates. Pretty exciting for an AAR. Well done!



TPOO -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/7/2018 11:17:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nicholas Bell

quote:


I Agree there needs to be an adjustment to Rasputitza as the Germans did gain some territory during this period especially in the South. It is just hard to make it balanced in TOAW. In TOAW3 in was impossible so a cease fire event had to be used. Fortunately we have a couple of new events to try to simulate mud turns.


Rick-
Would it possible to add a variable start date for mud? That would both provide opportunity for the German player to stick his neck out with possible good or bad results.

As I have mentioned elsewhere, the 1941 winter season was not only especially harsh, it was somewhat early also. Contrast that with the winter of 1943 where the mud didn't start until November 15th (The Soviet offensive at Nevel was conducted on dry ground for example) and the snow waited until mid-December. One can only imagine that the Germans would have been in Moscow had 1941 been as mild as 1943. Whether they could have hung on to it is another question.

Having the Rasputitza possibly start between the end of September and the later half of November would be realistic and add a lot of uncertainty.

Jukipo-
Always looking forward to your updates. Pretty exciting for an AAR. Well done!

In theory yes it can be done. The problem is we have tried that before and it just does not work out well. If some of the weather events in the variable wind up occurring on the same turn they cancel each other out and screw up all the weather events for the rest of the war. It takes a lot of events just to simulate mud and its effects. This has always been a pain because the game engine simulation of mud is not realistic for Rasputitza. We used to have to do a "Cease Fire" event for the Mud turns.



Edwire -> RE: Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21) (2/8/2018 5:40:08 AM)

I'm curious how the Air war is going?
In my game, after Rasputitza, Soviet Air Force have become really active, sending hundreds of aircraft on each battle, especially near Moscow. Luftwaffe still inflict ~5x losses but I doubt for much longer. I stopped Interdiction as it become too costly.



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