RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (Full Version)

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rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 8:46:56 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #1. France.

1. The French seriously considered a counterattack to retake Lille. In the end the downside of such an attack if it failed was deemed too risky and no attack was made.

2. The CW get the BEF back in supply (via transport(s) in North Sea). The two BEF corps in Belgium were pulled back into France to the port of Calais. In order to stay out of the way of the French corps also pulling back along the Channel coast, Gort and his HQ had to move into Le Harvey. (That is, the French and CW aren't allowed to stack together).

3. The RN moves two empty, and heavily, escorted transports into the North Sea in case evacuation of the BEF becomes necessary. A third transport is in Gibraltar and will be moved to the North Sea next turn. The CW took a combine and therefore was limited to two naval moves.


[image]local://upfiles/31901/B2E0A8957CAE4954B684E8682B80F7BC.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 8:47:46 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #1. USSR Annexes Bessarabia.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/BA32FC580412428CA69EDECFE90CB17A.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 8:57:54 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #2. France. German Land Combat (1 of 2).

1. Germany launches two Blitz land combats designed to split the French defenses in three parts and encircle the middle part.

2. The first attack is on the clear hex SE of Lille.

3. A fierce air battle over ground support between the Luftwaffe and the French air force takes place. Though, one again the Luftwaffe in fighters is both superior in number and quality, the French bombers bush by the Luftwaffe and are cleared through. The Luftwaffe fighter/bomber is also cleared through.

4. Though the land combat has a PWIN of 98.2%, it's chance of achieving the desired breakthrough is 88%. Very good odds but far from a sure thing.

5. The Germans roll well (enough) to destroy 2 of the 3 French defenders, shatter the third and breakthrough.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/7F52CA1099394AC6BD4904D4149E13FA.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:11:23 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #2. France. German Land Combat (2 of 2).

1. The second blitz land combat is a bit dicier. It is made on the clear hex directly west of Strasbourg. It includes a drop by the II FJR corps on the target hex and engineering support to one unit across the river in the hex northeast.

2. Another fierce air battle between the Luftwaffe and French air force takes place. This time the Luftwaffe fighters, who again hold the numbers and quality advantage, do manage to down the French fighter-bomber, killing its pilot. However, the French fighters also manage to shoot down a Stuka, but unlike the French, its pilot survives.

3. PWIN if 90.6%, which means that there's a 9.4% chance that the II FJR corps will be destroyed. The chance of a breakthrough is also lower at 73.1% than in the first blitz attack. Von Brock does what he can by providing +1.5 in HQ support.

4. The Germans (again) roll well (enough) to destroy two defenders, shatter a third and achieve their breakthrough.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/784B862EC38C4EDF9DAA9DF253C9FFAD.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:15:03 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #2. France.

1. The first point is a bit of an exaggeration. I'd say that maybe 2/3rd's and not 3/4th of the French army is out of supply.

2. However, the third point is right on, the situation in France is indeed desperate.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/A8A438B82BBE467DBAE50EF52E6989CA.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:18:38 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #3. France.

1. The French army pulls back and escapes encirclement (for now).

2. The French high command evens contemplates counterattacking the spearheads of the two breakthroughs but in the end decides not two because they estimate that such attacks would accelerate the destruction of the French army and lead to the fall of France.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C3934AFEDF3646ECA0FA129B371310FA.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:20:17 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #4. France. Two German Blitz Land Combats.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/E9965AF48BC74A5A8455B9D2C8048865.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:21:55 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #5. France.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/F5D11E2893DE41488330DE1D5BC0DADB.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:24:38 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #6. France. One German Overrun and Two Blitz Attacks.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/51145D43509A49CFADEABF911425BCDF.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:28:24 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #7. France.

quote:

PM Churchill issues the order, "Get our boys out of France, now!" Orders go out to Lord Gort and Admiral of the Fleet Charles Forbers, commander of the Home Fleet, to evacuate the BEF with operations to that effect beginning immediately.


[image]local://upfiles/31901/70E7873947184DAEA835D32FC9BC9DE9.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 9:29:38 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #7. RN.

quote:

WAR WARNING. From Senior British Command. Growing indications that Mussolini will order his forces to strike at Commonwealth forces, especially vulnerable convoys. Maximum escorts of convoys ordered with strict adherence to "non-provokation" guidelines with respect to Italian neutrality. Gentlement, stay vilgliant and do your duty for God, King and Country.


[image]local://upfiles/31901/41BE21F41C2C49D5A8D69EEE5FFC9618.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 11:18:46 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #8. Italy Declares War on France and Great Britain.

quote:

Mussolini orders his Italian Foreign Minister to deliver declarations of war on their respective countries to the ambassadors of France and Great Britain. Hitler feels this DOW may be more or a hindrance than a help to his war effort. USE roll=8, no chit added. The isolationist in the US appear to have the upper hand (for the moment at least).


[image]local://upfiles/31901/1745A9B8192A4C33893D32E6D2E17BB3.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 11:23:36 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #8. The Encirclement of Paris.

The OKH Wargaming Division (OWD) estimates the chance of taking Paris this impulse at something approaching 36%. Armed with this estimate, OKH senior commanders order the encirclement of Paris in preparation of an attack next impulse, hopefully this turn, to take the city.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/8E05603D883449DF9FE2C178730FAC78.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 11:36:20 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #9.

1. The weather turns brutal and may keep France from falling this turn.

2. The RN sends from heavy cruisers from Malta to raid an Italian supply convoy off the Italian Coast. If successful, this raid would break supply to the large Italian army on the Libyan-Egyptian border. The RN has no luck in finding the convoy.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/5109E5DA37D9403996506BCF9E1ED119.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/19/2018 11:56:11 PM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #11.

1. Even with Paris completely surrounded, because of the storms, OWD estimates the chance of taking Paris approaching something less than 47%, which isn't even a coin flip. OKH senior commanders issue the command (again) to their commanders on the ground to hold off on the assault to take Paris. Someone with a short mustache flies into a fit, and throws a temper tantrum, but senior OKH commanders are able to prevail, at least this time, in not ordering a bad assault but instead waiting for better conditions and odds.

2. The Italian navy claims two victories of the RN, which sends more shock waves through the Admiralty and White Hall. The RN with heavy losses are run out of the Italian Coast. In the West Med, the RN loses another battle but manages to stay and keep all allied convoys safe there.

3. Donitz sends his u-boats to raid convoys in the Faeroes Gap and Bay of Biscay. However, with the weather both raids are a long shot and the u-boats come up short. However, this move allows the u-boats to be in position to return to base to St-Nazaire on the west coast of France. Assuming the Germans can get supply (fuel and torpedoes) to these u-boats, this will put them in much better shape to raid allied Atlantic convoys.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/BCBFBE5EA67F46AD81695F38C68D8B93.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:11:32 AM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. End of Turn Summary.

The turn comes to an end after the axis impulse.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/3FA889AA472646F4BE01F2E6FB9CA761.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:13:21 AM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Destroyed & Repair Pools.

By the way, I'm following a rule that scraps all named ships that are sunk.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/E3C35DC0B7544C278621290B6C69A116.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:18:08 AM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. US Entry Pools.

1. The USA chooses opt 7, "Occupy Greenland and Iceland", which results in a chit moved from the German/Italy entry to tension pool.

2. The USA is also eyeing opt 26, "Relocate fleet to Pearl Harbor", however they're 2 points short in the Japanese entry pool.

3. Really, what the USA is working for is opt 22, "Gear up production", but don't have the necessary tension in either pool.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/4491723C2F6F49AB87282096FFF06E7E.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:20:05 AM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. CW and French Production.

CW production and resource utilization both are at 100%. However, the French economic situation, just like their military situation, is most desperate.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/E80607FFF121409C8507C1958BA45A66.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:22:13 AM)

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Economic and Production Reports.


[image]local://upfiles/31901/17268008DC344C1391FAAC490CD4DE53.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:32:28 AM)

Turn 6. June/July 1940. Trade.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/72A68095D4F44B24B43D6F562844057A.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:33:02 AM)

Turn 6. June/July 1940. France.

France was given the opportunity to surrender to Germany did the conquest phase of last turn. The response was an emphatic NO!

[image]local://upfiles/31901/263546755E374CACA64291D32F540401.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:33:31 AM)

Turn 6. June/July 1940. West Med.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/A5183F7FAE2A4901B2E706E61FE6F0E8.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:35:10 AM)

Turn 6. June/July 1940. Western Libya. French North Africa.

1. Forgot to mention but last turn Italy conquered French Somaliland and Corsica.

2. They also look to capture Tunisia this turn.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/9E65A9F9D57B412C88D1A95179B47FDF.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:36:33 AM)

Turn 6. June/July 1940. Eastern Libya. Egypt.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/C0744386A05245A8BE6BBCFC2A5B6702.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:36:57 AM)

Turn 6. June/July 1940. Great Britain.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/BAF417EC04B44B839C0FD3088DB7360E.jpg[/image]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/20/2018 12:37:17 AM)

Turn 6. June/July 1940. China.

[image]local://upfiles/31901/D774C6427EEE48268C9E663A61B1408C.jpg[/image]



Courtenay -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/21/2018 5:52:01 PM)

I would have attacked with the Germans. 47% chance is not bad; you have to ask, if we don't attack, what is the chance that we won't get to attack this turn? Forcing France to surrender a turn early is worth the chance of losing a few German units.



warspite1 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/21/2018 7:45:19 PM)

I love the fact you have the Italian 10th and 5th Armies in the desert theatre [:)]



rkr1958 -> RE: An Attempt to use MWiF to Simulated WW2 Reasonably Historically (3/22/2018 10:22:21 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

I would have attacked with the Germans. 47% chance is not bad; you have to ask, if we don't attack, what is the chance that we won't get to attack this turn? Forcing France to surrender a turn early is worth the chance of losing a few German units.
Yea, I was probably a bit too conservative.


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I love the fact you have the Italian 10th and 5th Armies in the desert theatre [:)]
Mussolini is just full of surprises. [;)]



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