RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (Full Version)

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Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 8:21:54 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock
Does this mean the Japanese player cannot take advantage of any better-than-historical game results in his favour to push on and capture
the next objective ahead of schedule?


No more than what the Japanese did historically. As it were they constantly had greater success than expected, except with
MacArthur, still they did not make immediate use of the opportunity. Eventually, they found they had over-estimated the enemy
and sped up their advance. Was this time-window enough to make a difference for an aggressive US leadership? That's what
this is about. I believe I have stated this in previous postings.

OTH, when my Japanese opponent finds that he is getting more trouble than expected he is allowed to take what action he finds
necessary to get back on track...[;)].

Fred




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 8:48:45 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqsA few years ago I aided another forum member and amateur historian who felt the same way about the USN unreliable torpedo parameters and set out to research the issue. My aid was a little software help with conversion and compilation. What he did was go through the war patrol records for all the USN subs in the Pacific and compile attacks, hits, targets, targets sunk, and so on to gain an idea of the numbers involved in malfunctions. He put tons of work into the project.

At the end, as I recall, the forum either did not hear about it or heard very little about it. Why? Because (as I recall) his research confirmed they had the numbers pretty much right.

In real life the torpedo issues were much more complicated than the game treats them as there were a number of malfunctioning features and the game simply gives two dates were the dud rate is reduced. That means any comparison with history will show differences with the game, but taken in the big lumps the game presents for the dud rate, the game is pretty accurate. Quite impressive, IMO.


To repeat myself, the purpose is not to test if "reliable" torpedoes would have changed history. Please see my previous posting.

I insisted on "reliable" torpedoes because my experience with the game so far is that this "unreliability" is exaggerated in the
game - just my opinion. "Reliable" torpedoes shall also to some degree (hopefully) mirror the more aggressive attitude of both
the US leadership and how this was conveyed to its boat commanders. To that purpose commanders have also been "topped" to some
deggree.

However.....on the afternoon of December 15th, in spite of aggressive positioning and numerous targets and contacts, allied
submarines have only sunk two enemy ships, one by a Dutch submarine, which were supposed to have reliable torpedoes as well
as able crews. Japanese boats have sunk thirteen allied ships, 64 allied ships in total till now. So, even with "reliable"
torpedoes it seems the game is playing tricks.

On the other hand, Japanese sub-chasers and sub-hunting destroyers live a charmed life as well as achieve good results against
allied submarines, several have been sunk.

Reliable torpedoes are certainly not changing this history, so far, anyway, but you are free to have your own opinion on this.
I have a war to fight so I won't use more time on this part of the game....[;)]

Fred








Chickenboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 9:09:07 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

I would also take this opportunity to post a remark on the previous discussion on reliable/unreliable US torpedoes: in the
five days with my game with Chickenboy, NO torpedo hits were made by allied submarines in spite of aggressive patrolling
and commanders - and "reliable" torpedoes.


You're incorrect.





Did I sink any...? If so, it has passed me by. Anyway, thank you for your cooperation.

Fred



Are you inquiring about sinkings or torpedo hits?

Within the first couple days unloading the Malay assault forces, a Dutch sub stuck its nose into the harbor at one of the ports. It hit an AV before it had a chance to disband in that port, critically damaging it. The next turn, the same SS in the same port hit and critically damaged a destroyer. The destroyer and AV were both disbanded in the small port fighting to stay afloat.

North of Luzon (Aparri I believe) you stuck the nose of an American fleet SS into the harbor for a couple days running. It hit and critically damaged an AV that I intended to disband into the port. That ship is also fighting to stay afloat. I believe there was at least one more hit on an xAK by a USN SS on the northern side of Luzon. You can just as easily parse that from the combat reports as I.




Chickenboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 9:14:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

A few years ago I aided another forum member and amateur historian who felt the same way about the USN unreliable torpedo parameters and set out to research the issue. My aid was a little software help with conversion and compilation. What he did was go through the war patrol records for all the USN subs in the Pacific and compile attacks, hits, targets, targets sunk, and so on to gain an idea of the numbers involved in malfunctions. He put tons of work into the project.

At the end, as I recall, the forum either did not hear about it or heard very little about it. Why? Because (as I recall) his research confirmed they had the numbers pretty much right.

In real life the torpedo issues were much more complicated than the game treats them as there were a number of malfunctioning features and the game simply gives two dates were the dud rate is reduced. That means any comparison with history will show differences with the game, but taken in the big lumps the game presents for the dud rate, the game is pretty accurate. Quite impressive, IMO.


Like everything historically with the development and maturity of this game, I recall (vaguely) this development. That the game got it 'pretty much right' was also my understanding based upon his test run too. This is just one iteration of the amazing ability of this game to replicate real-world results.




Chickenboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 9:45:34 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros
Japanese boats have sunk thirteen allied ships...So, even with "reliable" torpedoes it seems the game is playing tricks.


"Playing tricks"? Not hardly. There are many discrete variables involved in a successful submarine intercept of an enemy ship that application of the gross numbers-as you've done here-isn't helpful or enlightening.

1. Have the Allied submarines been spotted more often than the Japanese submarines have been? This depends on availability and setting of search aircraft and surface ASW platforms and 'clearing' DLs. A detected submarine is a worthless submarine. Are you sending your submarines into areas where they are detected? Is your opponent?

2. Have you swapped out your submarine commanders en masse? Is the crew experience the same as it was historically? Both of these factors impact the likelihood of a successful intercept. Both skill sets were underwhelming in the early war.
Unless you have changed these factors within the first 8 days of the war, you should expect the same underwhelming Allied results from this aspect of the submarine war.

3. Has your opponent buttressed ASW escort or increased individual ASW patrols in or around the 'hot spots'? Having dedicated ASW platforms either within the amphibious TFs or as stand-alone ASW TFs can harry and harass submarines and keep them submerged if detected before they have a chance to get a shot off.

In the first few days of the war, some of the pre-constructed IJN amphibious TFs are bizarrely constructed with CM, cMC, AV, PC, DD, DMS, PB, CL, and so on and so forth. Bloated and top heavy. But with surprisingly high ASW ratings. Some of the pre-formed Aparri / N. Luzon landing TFs had an ASW rating of >30. Application of such a high ASW rating in that default configuration will yield a stiffer defense than 'normally' constructed TFs.

4. Are your submarines in the right place at the right time? Nothing will prevent sinking an enemy ship more readily than there being no ships there. Both sides are offering moving targets. Your opponent is clearly able to predict some of your ship movements with his more numerable successful submarine intercepts. Are you doing as thorough a job at successfully predicting your opponent's ship movements? If so, see number 1.

5. (Relating to number 1) I noticed your proclivity to use the Dutch Dornier and Allied PBY / Catalinas in a naval bombing role in our short game. These planes excel at the naval search function, not naval bombing. A PBY that is engaged in a naval bombing mission is one that is not carrying out a naval search mission. A PBY sortie that ends in an unsuccessful naval bombing mission is doubly wasted. A PBY sortie that ends with an unsuccessful naval bombing mission, an unfulfilled naval search mission and a damaged / destroyed aircraft borders on a squandered asset. You control these settings.

Your aggressive use of this scarce asset is likely enhancing the success of your opponent's submarine war and hindering the success of your own.

6. I noted your use of submarines in coastal port hexes several times in our short game. This is a very risky disposition for your submarines. If spotted, with enemy ASW in the hex, they are at risk of being lost. Coastal hexes are also at greater risk from defensive minefields. Since you cite the unencumbered ability of your opponent's ASW, how have your 'several' Allied submarines been lost? Could it be that you exposed them to destruction in an ahistoric and injudicious manner? I think that's more likely than 'the game is borked'.





Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 10:00:42 AM)

Brisbane Evening Star December 15th.:










[image]local://upfiles/51239/F8F370052F2D44FD99F2B76AB7F93A77.jpg[/image]




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 10:11:10 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

6. I noted your use of submarines in coastal port hexes several times in our short game. This is a very risky disposition
for your submarines. If spotted, with enemy ASW in the hex, they are at risk of being lost. Coastal hexes are also at
greater risk from defensive minefields. Since you cite the unencumbered ability of your opponent's ASW, how have your
'several' Allied submarines been lost? Could it be that you exposed them to destruction in an ahistoric and injudicious
manner? I think that's more likely than 'the game is borked'.


Thank you for excellent advice - but taking them literally would be "ahistoric" - would it not? I mean, the allies were the
amateurs. There are limits, though...[;)]...

Please, guys, file your opinions to your heart's content but do not expect me to use much time on replying. I have set the
parameters and I only hope my opponent shall uphold his patience, which has been excellent so far, to see this experiment
through. It is quite time-demanding. And it's my wife's birthday today... [:)]

Fred




Buckrock -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 11:50:32 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros
No more than what the Japanese did historically. As it were they constantly had greater success than expected, except with
MacArthur, still they did not make immediate use of the opportunity. Eventually, they found they had over-estimated the enemy
and sped up their advance. Was this time-window enough to make a difference for an aggressive US leadership? That's what
this is about. I believe I have stated this in previous postings.


Still not sure whether you are saying the Japanese player in your game can or cannot ever take advantage of better than historical results
to accelerate his invasion schedule. Perhaps the answer to this question will clarify things for me......will the Japanese player ever
be able to invade Tarakan and Menado earlier than Jan 11th, 1942 if the situation in-theatre has become more favorable than was historical?

And is the Brisbane Evening Star to be the only source of Allied wartime news? I might have to go off and buy a pair of reading glasses.




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 12:07:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock
And is the Brisbane Evening Star to be the only source of Allied wartime news? I might have to go off and buy a pair of reading glasses.


Sorry about the quality of the "paper", I appreciate your frustration, but as far as I know only pictures can be attached to a
posting. You can copy the "paper" to PAINT and magnify it there. That said, there was some transfer issues with this latest
postings so I shall re-attach it. I have tried to make it as big as possible without "stretching" the PC screen too much.

Fred






Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 12:15:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock
Still not sure whether you are saying the Japanese player in your game can or cannot ever take advantage of better than historical results
to accelerate his invasion schedule. Perhaps the answer to this question will clarify things for me......will the Japanese player ever
be able to invade Tarakan and Menado earlier than Jan 11th, 1942 if the situation in-theatre has become more favorable than was historical?


That would make this thread irrelevant, would it not? The idea is to test/investigate the time-window offered by
the original Japanese time-table.

Fred




Buckrock -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 1:47:55 PM)

Thanks. I asked only because I just wanted to confirm the point in this AAR after which the serious player vs player action would be present.




witpqs -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 2:40:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqsA few years ago I aided another forum member and amateur historian who felt the same way about the USN unreliable torpedo parameters and set out to research the issue. My aid was a little software help with conversion and compilation. What he did was go through the war patrol records for all the USN subs in the Pacific and compile attacks, hits, targets, targets sunk, and so on to gain an idea of the numbers involved in malfunctions. He put tons of work into the project.

At the end, as I recall, the forum either did not hear about it or heard very little about it. Why? Because (as I recall) his research confirmed they had the numbers pretty much right.

In real life the torpedo issues were much more complicated than the game treats them as there were a number of malfunctioning features and the game simply gives two dates were the dud rate is reduced. That means any comparison with history will show differences with the game, but taken in the big lumps the game presents for the dud rate, the game is pretty accurate. Quite impressive, IMO.


To repeat myself, the purpose is not to test if "reliable" torpedoes would have changed history. Please see my previous posting.

I insisted on "reliable" torpedoes because my experience with the game so far is that this "unreliability" is exaggerated in the
game - just my opinion. "Reliable" torpedoes shall also to some degree (hopefully) mirror the more aggressive attitude of both
the US leadership and how this was conveyed to its boat commanders. To that purpose commanders have also been "topped" to some
deggree.

However.....on the afternoon of December 15th, in spite of aggressive positioning and numerous targets and contacts, allied
submarines have only sunk two enemy ships, one by a Dutch submarine, which were supposed to have reliable torpedoes as well
as able crews. Japanese boats have sunk thirteen allied ships, 64 allied ships in total till now. So, even with "reliable"
torpedoes it seems the game is playing tricks.

On the other hand, Japanese sub-chasers and sub-hunting destroyers live a charmed life as well as achieve good results against
allied submarines, several have been sunk.

Reliable torpedoes are certainly not changing this history, so far, anyway, but you are free to have your own opinion on this.
I have a war to fight so I won't use more time on this part of the game....[;)]

Fred

You have misunderstood my point. You expressed doubt about the unreliable torpedo setting, suspecting that it is *too* unreliable. My point is that a forum members research into original sources indicates it is pretty close to the mark.

Can't say if or why the game is playing tricks. [8D]




BBfanboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 3:45:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

6. I noted your use of submarines in coastal port hexes several times in our short game. This is a very risky disposition
for your submarines. If spotted, with enemy ASW in the hex, they are at risk of being lost. Coastal hexes are also at
greater risk from defensive minefields. Since you cite the unencumbered ability of your opponent's ASW, how have your
'several' Allied submarines been lost? Could it be that you exposed them to destruction in an ahistoric and injudicious
manner? I think that's more likely than 'the game is borked'.


Thank you for excellent advice - but taking them literally would be "ahistoric" - would it not? I mean, the allies were the
amateurs. There are limits, though...[;)]...

Please, guys, file your opinions to your heart's content but do not expect me to use much time on replying. I have set the
parameters and I only hope my opponent shall uphold his patience, which has been excellent so far, to see this experiment
through. It is quite time-demanding. And it's my wife's birthday today... [:)]

Fred


Your wife's birthday! So, does this mean you have to let her play a turn at the game? [:D]
What will you do if she does better than you? [:)]




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 6:29:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Your wife's birthday! So, does this mean you have to let her play a turn at the game? [:D]
What will you do if she does better than you? [:)]

That shouldn't take much...[&:]

Fred




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/3/2018 6:30:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

Thanks. I asked only because I just wanted to confirm the point in this AAR after which the serious player vs player action would be present.

No problem!

Fred




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/5/2018 11:50:47 AM)

This better for you, Buckrock - I have upped the fonts a little?

Fred



[image]local://upfiles/51239/0EB26700EF0247F7A78E87F1DE8926C6.jpg[/image]




Bif1961 -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/5/2018 1:26:26 PM)

Lose lips sink ships the world now wonders where the KGV has gone and with whom?




Buckrock -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/5/2018 3:13:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

This better for you, Buckrock - I have upped the fonts a little?

Fred


Much easier to read. Thanks.




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/8/2018 5:41:03 PM)


Brisbane Evening Star December 20th, 1941



[image]local://upfiles/51239/6EA84DEB8B96462D8C450FC672853CCA.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/8/2018 7:01:12 PM)

Heh, 140 ton PT Boats! Some FOW or "BS of Press" happening here- my PT boats are 35 tons in game. [;)]

Interesting overall picture. Still waiting for the first significant black eye for the Japanese.




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/8/2018 7:38:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Heh, 140 ton PT Boats! Some FOW or "BS of Press" happening here- my PT boats are 35 tons in game. [;)]

You know - reporters...[&:]..maybe they're German S-boote..?

Fred




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/9/2018 10:35:37 PM)

Here is what I consider a very interesting link. Navigating through time and pages can be a little awkward but what impresses
me is the speed and accuracy of much of the presented information. It (the immediate news), for a large part, conforms with
what happened historically.

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/17788304/1107186#

Fred




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/11/2018 11:34:59 AM)

Brisbane Evening Star December 24, 1941



[image]local://upfiles/51239/E8A9CC43A5AD4BE1831117EDA82C8669.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/11/2018 3:32:06 PM)

First fighter ace? Surely the Australian pilots in the Battle of Britain and the desert war produced some aces?




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/19/2018 10:34:31 AM)


December 29th 1941



[image]local://upfiles/51239/39AA8373528049EFAF08602F1C4A70D5.jpg[/image]




Macclan5 -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/20/2018 4:50:05 PM)

Following .....

Interested as well.

@ Leandros:

Good Luck.

In a sense Leandros you are going to handicap yourself with a public AAR [:D]

I think I can safely suggest most of the forumites here are (1) well read in the subject (2) with opinions of course and (3) generally more than amateur historians although that is the only title I will lay claim to...


@ Chickenboy:

Indeed the power of the game is the multiple purposes, playstyles, and aggressiveness it can adopt and satisfy.




Chickenboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/20/2018 4:54:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

Following .....

Interested as well.

@ Leandros:

Good Luck.

In a sense Leandros you are going to handicap yourself with a public AAR [:D]

I think I can safely suggest most of the forumites here are (1) well read in the subject (2) with opinions of course and (3) generally more than amateur historians although that is the only title I will lay claim to...


@ Chickenboy:

Indeed the power of the game is the multiple purposes, playstyles, and aggressiveness it can adopt and satisfy.


Hi Macclan5,

Thanks for the note. Just on the off chance that you were operating under a dated assumption, I'll remind you that I'm no longer involved in this game. I believe Dili has picked it up from the Japanese side of things.

Cheers.




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/20/2018 5:13:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

Following .....

Interested as well.

@ Leandros:

Good Luck.

In a sense Leandros you are going to handicap yourself with a public AAR [:D]



Hmm...thank you..that depends....[;)]..

Fred




Leandros -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/23/2018 8:18:22 PM)


Brisbane evening Star January 3rd 1942




[image]local://upfiles/51239/715DEAAC0C8D4A15953C0D6E5C1AB803.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Rookie II - Saving MacArthur (7/24/2018 1:18:54 PM)

Given the emphasis on carrying out a determined defense in the Pacific, has the "No Unit Withdrawals" switch been set to "ON"? It would not make sense to withdraw ships and units if Germany is not the priority.




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