RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (Full Version)

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KorutZelva -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/18/2018 4:25:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sugar

Because the posible targets are not of the same importance and urgency; SU won't join the Axis despite all effort, and there's still a time window to get the necessary 60% to entice Franco.

In the end it stays a high risk gamble for both sides; itīs not mandatory to counter every single chit p.e..


But if the Axis strike first, they pick the target (aka USSR).

If USSR readiness spike wasn't a big deal, you wouldn't have spent mpp in diplo to try roll back Allied influence in the USSR in our game. Technically Italy joined pretty much as the same time France folded making those Italian diplo chits superfluous if you only wanted to contain further increases. Even with the new 60% threshold, it is unlikely that you would have kept your chits in Spain waiting for them to fire before switching them to the USSR or limited yourself to your two remaining chits to cover the USSR.



Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/18/2018 4:27:58 PM)

quote:

Then that should be reflected in the game, if Germany or CW swings the % in its favor, then Russia should gain something?


Perhaps a good idea for the upcoming SC title; Russia gains inf. weapons 1 for a swing of 5%; but there's also immaterial benefits, like prestige or calming down inner opposition.




Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/18/2018 4:45:08 PM)

quote:

If USSR readiness spike wasn't a big deal, you wouldn't have spent mpp in diplo to try roll back Allied influence in the USSR in our game.


In our game you achieved a 3. hit, and I could estimate to reach the necessary % to entice Franco. Meanwhile from my experience I know better how to handle it; it's simply a question of when to launch Barbarossa; 3 average hits mean to launch it june 22., without Lithuania. Lithuania adds 1 more turn, every missing hit an additional turn.



KorutZelva -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/18/2018 7:09:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sugar

quote:

If USSR readiness spike wasn't a big deal, you wouldn't have spent mpp in diplo to try roll back Allied influence in the USSR in our game.


In our game you achieved a 3. hit, and I could estimate to reach the necessary % to entice Franco. Meanwhile from my experience I know better how to handle it; it's simply a question of when to launch Barbarossa; 3 average hits mean to launch it june 22., without Lithuania. Lithuania adds 1 more turn, every missing hit an additional turn.


Well well. Disrupting Axis Barbarossa timetable and increasing USSR R&D and unit spending seems like an clear allied benefit to me. I wasn't overly lucky getting those three hits that were pretty close to the expected odds.

Bottomline is that Uber diplo done right is a good tool in the Allied toolbox. Don't see it being a thing on the Axis side unless dreadfully mismanaged by the Allies.



Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/18/2018 7:43:21 PM)

quote:

Well well. Disrupting Axis Barbarossa timetable and increasing USSR R&D and unit spending seems like an clear allied benefit to me


Of course it is, but still not enough to make them competitive; and also of course you'll have to achieve those 2 hits at least. It's clearly not gamebreaking and everyone knows the downsides and how to counter.

quote:

Bottomline is that Uber diplo done right is a good tool in the Allied toolbox.
No, it`s a desperate tool. Better to cause losses in France and to stop the Axis in Libya, hardly to achieve with uber-diplo going on. I wouldn`t recommend uber unless you desperately need a victory in a tourney, otherwise you`d better improve your tact. and strat. abilities.

quote:

Don't see it being a thing on the Axis side unless dreadfully mismanaged by the Allies.


We both know, Germany can much easier afford the chits than GB. If I'm rightly judging uber, major diplo on Axis` side is also hurting GB more; the only downside is that it's more or less a dead race to influence SU, especially if it`s preventing them from getting Spain.

But I admit, I could be wrong; someone has to test it out I guess.



PvtBenjamin -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/18/2018 8:23:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sugar

I guess we all got your point already.




room -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/18/2018 9:01:28 PM)

To entirely link the military budget of a nation on its diplo status si a bit silly but there is a reasonable argument that the closer they feel to war, the more they prepare. Maybe SU could get 20% plus 1% per diplo % towards the allies (maxed at 100% ofc).



KorutZelva -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/19/2018 12:34:20 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sugar

quote:

Well well. Disrupting Axis Barbarossa timetable and increasing USSR R&D and unit spending seems like an clear allied benefit to me


Of course it is, but still not enough to make them competitive; and also of course you'll have to achieve those 2 hits at least. It's clearly not gamebreaking and everyone knows the downsides and how to counter.

quote:

Bottomline is that Uber diplo done right is a good tool in the Allied toolbox.
No, it`s a desperate tool. Better to cause losses in France and to stop the Axis in Libya, hardly to achieve with uber-diplo going on. I wouldn`t recommend uber unless you desperately need a victory in a tourney, otherwise you`d better improve your tact. and strat. abilities.

quote:

Don't see it being a thing on the Axis side unless dreadfully mismanaged by the Allies.


We both know, Germany can much easier afford the chits than GB. If I'm rightly judging uber, major diplo on Axis` side is also hurting GB more; the only downside is that it's more or less a dead race to influence SU, especially if it`s preventing them from getting Spain.

But I admit, I could be wrong; someone has to test it out I guess.


Not clear cut as one would think in terms of available income. As long as France is still around, Germany is quite poor. If Germany goes on Diplo offence at the at the start then allies have the edge. If Germany goes on the diplo offensive post-France, the UK might struggle to ramp up its diplo chits but... its also late to diplo which mitigates the potential benefits. The USSR already had time to put its MPP to use and the mobilisation will soon start to ramp up again.

The ripple effect of successfully kick-starting USSR tech research are more consequential than a bit more German unit loss in France or holding on a turn or two more. My inferior unit management aside, I demonstrated that the UK could still uberdiplo and have a substantial offensive punch in NA. I put you at the helm of my force post France and you win vs Axis Sugar 60% of the time. It's a viable strat alright.



Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (7/19/2018 1:17:43 AM)

You forgot to take into account I didn't fully counter, instead I took the chance to gamble myself. But it`s not worth argueing, I guess we both agree it's not a gamebreaking strategy, and everybody's free to choose.

quote:

a bit more German unit loss in France


Don`t underestimate the effects of maybe 2 missing units, highly experienced at best, let`s say a tank and a bomber. It`s not about the MPPs, it could also take one more turn.



VirtuaKim -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 1:33:06 AM)

quote:

So had the USSR get influenced and attack me in an MP game in May 1940, the turn after France fell.

That seems... extreme. What is the counter strategy to this? Pretty sure I'm dead now, despite having a very successful run up to this point...



So, I guess that game was against me (just surrendered). I did not read all the posts here though due to time restraints.

Some explanation. Some better player (than me) did something similar to me so I thought I'd be worth a try. UK and France invested heavily in diplomacy with Russia. Worked rather well. Nonetheless, I wouldn't recommend it. Russia enters the war weak and without the Baltics. UK is fragile too due to missing tech and probably loses Africa. Altaris is a better player than me and understands the game better, so I was always on the defense with Russia and UK. Russians had infantry 3, industrial 3 and still nothing worked out. Russian could hardly attack an Italian unit. Russian winter and Siberians come at the start of 1942 anyway, so no help either.

Russia is far too weak for that move, so I don't see any advantage in it. Germany can counter with whatever it has and still advance. Later, the Germans just go into attrition mode and kill so many points while gaining exp that the Russian has almost no freedom to do anything.

I am a bit disappointed that such an extraordinary diplomacy event leads to a rather boring outcome. In any case: Well played, Altaris, well played! Please understand that I am battered enough.

Please let me know if you have any advice or questions.


P.S.: Does anyone have a decent strategy against the allies blocking the Norwegian convoy line and sinking 40pp each turn?



Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 10:26:56 AM)

quote:

P.S.: Does anyone have a decent strategy against the allies blocking the Norwegian convoy line and sinking 40pp each turn?


http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4513248

Not decent, but a maritime bomber might help. It's probably better used eleswhere most of the time though.



Taxman66 -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 10:42:51 AM)

The only other option is a couple of Motor Torpedo Boats, to be used after the line shifts. They're better at attacking subs than Destroyers, but less good at defending against them.



VirtuaKim -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 10:51:09 AM)

Thanks for the help, guys!

I recognize that I wasn't clear enough, though. I was thinking about the first few turns of the game when Germany seems to inadvertently lose the income from Norway. There still is no time to build anything and the navy seems too weak to attack a determined UK fleet eliminating the convoy. 40pp less at the beginning are significant in my opinion.



Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 12:06:37 PM)

You can write them off... [:D]

You simply have to plan without that particular income. Better get used to it. It's not gamebreaking, and it won`t probabaly change unless we see SC4.



VirtuaKim -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 2:49:15 PM)

Interesting, thanks. So, you I guess there is no reliable way to stop a competent UK player from doing that.

SC4 - yes, hopefully. Maybe 2024 or so. I also wish they would scrap some of the more bizarre game aspects by then, like the different turn lengths and the corps(e) and army differentiation, but that's probably just me. Having fun with SC:E nonetheless (MP).



Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 4:35:27 PM)

quote:

So, you I guess there is no reliable way to stop a competent UK player from doing that.


It's a matter of effort, probably not worth to neglect easier ways to compensate.



VirtuaKim -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 6:27:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sugar

quote:

So, you I guess there is no reliable way to stop a competent UK player from doing that.


It's a matter of effort, probably not worth to neglect easier ways to compensate.


I honestly have no clue. Would you mind shedding some light which one those would be? Production tech maybe?



Sugar -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/23/2018 6:39:53 PM)

1. Support your Kriegsmarine with your Luftwaffe. Possible short term solution, you`ll need your Luftwaffe more urgently elsewhere, but between Poland and France there's still some time to use.
2. Occupy Luxembourg during first turn.
3. Occupy the Netherlands and Belgium asap.
4. Research Industrie
5. Buy marit. bomber and mtbs
And last, not least: hurry up in Poland, 2 turns should be enough.



AltarisGreyhawke -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/24/2018 12:49:24 AM)

I don't think it was a mistake to pull the Soviet Union in early, it's a huge amount of MPP's to get with the Soviets fully in war. Considering they entered the turn France capitulated, it really put me off footing through most of 1941, as I had to stay mostly on defense against Russia while securing the Balkans. Considering it cost around 900 MPP's to get full diplo points with Russia, but then Russia gets around 800 MPP a turn once in war, I think it's a good payoff for the investment.



AltarisGreyhawke -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/28/2018 9:00:19 PM)

Okay, so after several games, I'm convinced this mechanic is unbalanced and probably broken, though it can go either way. If either side invests heavily into diplomacy with USSR early on, it can swing the game heavily in their favor. I suppose it's capable of being "countered" by the opposing side investing heavily in return, but this just feels off for a primarily military game.

What are the possible solutions to this? I imagine the easy one is to cut off diplomacy, but if you do that, it seems to me like historical nations such as the Balkans will never join their respective sides. I realize it can also be house-ruled, but I tend to pick up opponents on the PBEM++ server and it's hard to negotiate this ahead of time.



pjg100 -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/29/2018 5:55:02 PM)

I don't think it's broken. It's a high risk gamble that can easily backfire, and can be effectively countered by an opponent willing to play the odds. FREX, the Allied player in one of my games invested heavily in diplo re USSR. I countered with some diplo but played the odds that he would not hit with a 5% chance. He got one hit but the cost bankrupted the UK and I walked into Britain in fall 1940, cleaned up by early 1941 and after Vichy installation invested successfully in diplo to bring the USSR back down to normal mob.

As Axis I hope the Allies will go for heavy diplo early.



AltarisGreyhawke -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/30/2018 2:03:39 AM)

Yeah, I agree it's not a 100% fool-proof mechanism, and it's exploitable by Axis too. In a lot of ways, Axis are better at this, as they can more easily spend MPPs than Britain can once it's alone. The 800 or so MPP's needed to get full with Britain and Germany are more easily expended as Germany than as Britain.

It just feels off and broken to me. I'd rather see games fought out militarily, but I'm worried if I just cut off the diplomacy, it'll affect other aspects of the game (such as the Balkan minors entering the war).



BiteNibbleChomp -> RE: May 1940 USSR DOW in MP?? (8/30/2018 6:54:02 AM)

How about this for a solution: scale the percentage chance of an opposing power's diplo chit firing with the % that the power is already in the war, while keeping their full counter-diplo ability?

So if USSR is at 25% mobilisation and Germany has two 5%* chits in, Germany has a 0.25x0.1 = 0.025 (or 2.5%) chance of scoring a 7*-10*% hit, pushing the USSR that much away from the Allies.

If UK has 1 5% chit invested and Germany has two, Germany now has a 0.25x(0.1-0.05) = 0.0125 (or 1.25%) chance of scoring that same 7-10% change.

If UK now invests 3 chits, two cancel out Germany's (which both count as -5%) and the one left over has the full 5% chance of firing to swing the USSR to the Allies, partly to ensure that majors can't get locked at 0 mobilisation forever and also because Stalin is more likely to listen to the foreign ministers of people he is likely to side with than those he would side against.

But if USSR mobilisation is now 80%, those 2 German chits are now much more effective (8% vs 2.5%), which allows them to delay USSR's entry to the war (which is the entire point of diplo chits in the first place) without adversely affecting MPP too significantly. But at 80%, the USSR is already close enough to entering the war that they won't be delayed indefinitely or crippled by a couple of pro-Axis hits.

The same would apply to all other majors too (so UK chits are less effective against Italy) but not minors (the system doesn't make much sense if a minor is at 0% either side; in major power terms this means they have no interest in entering the war, but for a minor it just means they are unconcerned which side they might join). None of the minor powers are strong enough to really make a diplo-spam strategy worthwhile, if someone attempts one on say Spain, whatever benefit they gain from the Spanish forces is approximately equal to what benefit they would gain if they invested in something else, rather than being disproportionate the way an 800 MPP investment in the USSR is.

* = I'm using the SC2 numbers as I'm much more familiar with that game than SC3, but the same concept applies either way.

- BNC



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