The Armchair General's Tale -IJ SURRENDERS- (dontra85 (IJ) vs modrow (A)) - no dontra85, please (Full Version)

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modrow -> The Armchair General's Tale -IJ SURRENDERS- (dontra85 (IJ) vs modrow (A)) - no dontra85, please (7/22/2018 9:15:51 PM)

Gentlemen,

welcome to this thread.

This AAR exists because of a legendary (and much disputed) operation of my freshly acquired IJ-opponent (dontra85), who pulled off a limited West-coast invasion, conquering Portland for a while and thus inducing a dent to Allied late war OOB.

His original opponent did not feel he wanted to continue this, so NY59Giants stepped in to keep the game alive because of the interesting consequences this may have, for his reports see here

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4476852

He decided recently not to continue, quite possibly because of no longer being used to the atrocities of a stock game, see his “Invasion USA” thread that is linked above for details.

Whereas there are definitely a number of problems to solve, this is not a hopeless case per se, but may cause a refreshing variation of the campaign developments we always see. In fact, I feel the overall situation is that interesting that I decided to step in – at a slow pace, because of involvement in other PBEMs, but so that the community can see how this plays out.

My thanks to Michael (NY59Giants) and Donald (dontra85) for making this possible. Also, to get this going, in needed a download from the member’s section, which resulted in a new forum name – previously, I was hartwig.modrow.

So if you want to join, please do!

Hartwig



modrow -> General introduction (7/22/2018 9:32:46 PM)

Gentlemen,

Recently, my impression is that there is less to read in these forums than in the good old days. When the morning coffee lasts longer than the study of the must-read AARs, something is wrong and something has to change.

This is my attempt to contribute to such change. Of course, there are lots of caveats. Typically, I am notoriously short of time – job, kids, never-ending honey-do lists, some much needed time for workout and PBEMs, so I have no idea how regular posts in this thread will be. Possibly, the best incentive for me to write is to see feedback and discussion illustrating people are actually interested in this.

I am neither a great writer – no story AAR, sorry !- nor a great general/admiral –no tactical, operational or strategic innovations for the peanut gallery, sorry again. But of course, any such contribution to this thread is most welcome.

As much as I love playing this game and the original WitP, during the 10+ years that I play it I realized that even though I believe my understanding of the engine is decent, my generalship is probably not, and as such, I qualify perfectly as an armchair general (thus the title of this thread). My aim is always to learn, to improve and to have fun even when being beaten because there is a remote chance I’ll learn from my mistakes. Therefore, feel free to propose, discuss, question and criticize.

So rally to the flags of the Allied, AFB’s, and let’s see whether we can prevent IJ from winning.

Hartwig



modrow -> Intel screen (7/22/2018 9:48:41 PM)

Gentlemen,

to give you something to ponder about, in this last post for tonight I will present the intel screen of the current turn, April 8, 1942.

Hartwig



[image]local://upfiles/22130/D5096F41A614450B8B710418277DA28F.jpg[/image]



Bif1961 -> RE: Intel screen (7/22/2018 11:28:20 PM)

If you take 4,000 VP off for all the ships that were destroyed Coast you are actually doing well in all other areas. I am happy you are picking this up as it was intriguing how the Allied player would overcome this type of damaged caused by the destruction of so many future vessels especially CVEs. I am looking forward to see how you play around this handicap. good luck and good hunting.



modrow -> RE: Intel screen (7/23/2018 4:54:19 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

If you take 4,000 VP off for all the ships that were destroyed Coast you are actually doing well in all other areas. I am happy you are picking this up as it was intriguing how the Allied player would overcome this type of damaged caused by the destruction of so many future vessels especially CVEs. I am looking forward to see how you play around this handicap. good luck and good hunting.


Bif1961

Thanks for posting and following along - a quick reply, more facts will hopefully follow tonight. Yes, there are numerous facts that I really like when looking at my current situation.

My current impression is that it is questionable in game terms (i.e. if one were to obey auto victory) whether this game will see the time when those ship losses are really going to kick in. Either this ends in a IJ autovictory in early 43 or IJ will lose control over the DEI in 43, leading (hopefully) to economic collapse.

Some of the "doing well" may turn out to be VPs that can/will still be gained by IJ, and some of the "doing well" is paid for by a war that so far has not been very bloody (which means the Allied VP count does not include not too many permanent VPs).

As I said, I hope to be able to provide some more facts tonight, so that speculations will be more founded.

Hartwig



obvert -> RE: Intel screen (7/23/2018 6:15:04 AM)

Good to see you back and taking this one on. I was interested fro the previous discussions, and I think it's a fun game to continue as you say, for the sake of trying something not seen so often.

I'll be following along for sure.

The forum is a bit less active than in the past, and I think the AAR section could use more comments added. Just a question, quick note or anything for those who are writing to see that, as you say, someone is reading and it's still worth doing. I used to love all of the discussions that would come up in the AARs.

I heard there were some setbacks in China recently due to massive stacks, and it'll be tough there for a bit, but it'll go the other way eventually as well! [;)]



Alfred -> RE: General introduction (7/23/2018 4:47:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow

Gentlemen,

Recently, my impression is that there is less to read in these forums than in the good old days. When the morning coffee lasts longer than the study of the must-read AARs, something is wrong and something has to change...



Well whose fault is that. You did somewhat abruptly cease to update your 2011 AAR. The strategy club members resting in their red Chesterfields always looked forward to reading the latest news with their cognac, or in your case a Highlands malt.

Alfred



Alfred -> RE: General introduction (7/23/2018 5:01:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow

... Typically, I am notoriously short of time – job, kids, never-ending honey-do lists, some much needed time for workout and PBEMs, so I have no idea how regular posts in this thread will be...



Excuses... excuses...

1. I see no mention of you playing WitG:AE, so that immediately frees up considerable time to play and write an AE AAR.

2. Your children are now aged 10 and 8. They are now old enough to mow the lawn and build up their strength for the snow shovelling season. Just remember to maintain the home off limits to the inlaws.

3. Surely seven years on you have made partner level by now. Partners key responsibilities are to duchess clients and keep tabs on the cashflows; undertaking actual work is delegated fully to the underlings.

4. Surely the labour market in Germany is no longer as tight as it was just a few years ago. It must be possible to hire, at a competitive rate, others to do those honey-do lists.

Alfred



Zorch -> RE: General introduction (7/23/2018 5:26:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: modrow

... Typically, I am notoriously short of time – job, kids, never-ending honey-do lists, some much needed time for workout and PBEMs, so I have no idea how regular posts in this thread will be...



Excuses... excuses...

1. I see no mention of you playing WitG:AE, so that immediately frees up considerable time to play and write an AE AAR.

2. Your children are now aged 10 and 8. They are now old enough to mow the lawn and build up their strength for the snow shovelling season. Just remember to maintain the home off limits to the inlaws.

3. Surely seven years on you have made partner level by now. Partners key responsibilities are to duchess clients and keep tabs on the cashflows; undertaking actual work is delegated fully to the underlings.

4. Surely the labour market in Germany is no longer as tight as it was just a few years ago. It must be possible to hire, at a competitive rate, others to do those honey-do lists.

Alfred

One has to prioritize the important things in life. [:D]



modrow -> RE: General introduction (7/23/2018 7:41:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Excuses... excuses...

1. I see no mention of you playing WitG:AE, so that immediately frees up considerable time to play and write an AE AAR.

2. Your children are now aged 10 and 8. They are now old enough to mow the lawn and build up their strength for the snow shovelling season. Just remember to maintain the home off limits to the inlaws.

3. Surely seven years on you have made partner level by now. Partners key responsibilities are to duchess clients and keep tabs on the cashflows; undertaking actual work is delegated fully to the underlings.

4. Surely the labour market in Germany is no longer as tight as it was just a few years ago. It must be possible to hire, at a competitive rate, others to do those honey-do lists.

Alfred


Alfred,

excellent to have you along. Also, another excellent display of your encyclopedic knowledge about everything that was ever written in these forums. I truly look forward to reprimands to come, because I am honestly of the opinion that there may be a chance that finally I learn something from them. At least I try hard.

Speaking of learning - I am the one who regrets most the aprupt ending of my previous AAR, because I learned a lot from that game (but of course not enough by far), even if it was brief. I was doing turns too slowly for my esteemed opponent. Of course, I could have continued with made-up events, but everyone would have noted the sudden lack of brilliance. Nemo121 leaving these forums was a severe loss. But that is another story.

However, unfortunately not all of your above assessments are correct. For example, as you may know, minimum wage in Germany is 8,84€ per hour. My local supermarket is currently looking for a store helper (no real qualification needed, apart from using a broom and being physically able to restock the shelves). They offer now 12€ per hour and still don't find anyone.

Hartwig



modrow -> RE: Intel screen (7/23/2018 7:53:11 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Good to see you back and taking this one on. I was interested fro the previous discussions, and I think it's a fun game to continue as you say, for the sake of trying something not seen so often.

I'll be following along for sure.

The forum is a bit less active than in the past, and I think the AAR section could use more comments added. Just a question, quick note or anything for those who are writing to see that, as you say, someone is reading and it's still worth doing. I used to love all of the discussions that would come up in the AARs.

I heard there were some setbacks in China recently due to massive stacks, and it'll be tough there for a bit, but it'll go the other way eventually as well! [;)]


Obvert,

thanks for posting. You AARs are on my must read list, and I will try to reciprocate [:)]

Re. China - I will post a China situation map soon, but not today. When I do, you will see that NY59Giants did a good job stopping IJ cold (maybe a bit too far forward), but by concentration of force and, of course, armor now an important roadblock on the good road to Sian is essentially broken (still holds due to entrenchent). Currently, it's a race whether I get some troops blocking other approaches to Sian on worse roads back in time. But that's fun as well.

Hartwig



ny59giants -> RE: Intel screen (7/23/2018 7:59:45 PM)

In China, the northern flank 'may be' vulnerable. There was some activity around Lanchow, but a large Corp is up there now. Just need some supply at Chungking to allow soaking up of rifle squad replacements.



Anachro -> RE: Intel screen (7/23/2018 8:08:00 PM)

I, too, have noticed that the forums are a bit less active than they used to be - and this is only comparing them to how they were when I joined three years ago! There seem to be less AARs actively updated every day than there used to be by an order of magnitude. I always try to read every one, but of course, I have not been as good about commenting on them. I shall try to do my part and comment more into the future.

I, too, am interested in seeing how this one develops.



modrow -> Theatre Map (bases) (7/23/2018 8:08:42 PM)

Gentlemen,

having duchessed some active contributors to this AAR, I would now like to provide you with yet another bit of information before I log out to run the next turn: The map, displaying base ownership only (no units). You will sense opportunity when looking at it (I do), but do not get too excited just yet. There are still problems to solve before opportunity can be used.

So, here's the strategic map:

[image]local://upfiles/22130/70A7DDE2D247444DBDE99BFB4E8CD3B2.jpg[/image]

Hartwig



modrow -> IJ ship losses (7/24/2018 12:35:51 PM)

Gentlemen,

let's continue to provide some facts about the current status in the game. After the (very nice) strategic map, here's something that is less positive: IJ ship losses are relatively low. At least in my other games as Allied at this point of time they used to be higher.

Hartwig

[image]local://upfiles/22130/77103049E18A492B8CBA80DE9588FBDB.jpg[/image]



modrow -> Allied ship losses (7/24/2018 12:50:31 PM)

Here's an overview over ship losses. You see that apart from the losses due to the temporary capture of Portland and Astoria, in fact (as Bif1961 assumed correctly) the Allied navy did not lose too much, especially in terms of combat ships.

[image]local://upfiles/22130/B8481C1AA6AB4C8CAA0CD76F5F5E89E4.jpg[/image]



modrow -> Allied ship losses (7/24/2018 12:58:26 PM)

This is another potentially interesting tidbit re. ship losses: Allied losses since the infamous January 18 42

[image]local://upfiles/22130/74FA75BECC824D3FA283CE085D455CDD.jpg[/image]



modrow -> Allied ship losses (7/24/2018 1:03:07 PM)

Allied ship losses before January 18, part 1



[image]local://upfiles/22130/DA139FAB655B4E19BADA862F349BA2BE.jpg[/image]



modrow -> RE: Allied ship losses (7/24/2018 1:04:51 PM)

As above, part 2

[image]local://upfiles/22130/DF26734DFDE749C7A1F3D3B380AC736E.jpg[/image]



modrow -> RE: Allied ship losses (7/24/2018 1:08:23 PM)

As above, part 3



[image]local://upfiles/22130/162013B269914AB9A63EDDE2657F6998.jpg[/image]



modrow -> Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 1:30:04 PM)

Gentlemen,

so, summarizing the naval war so far, there has not been too much of it. The positive aspect is that Allied combat shipping (a considerable part of which is currently doing the 4/42 upgrades and, accordingly, is not really available at the front lines) has not taken a dent. The negative aspect is that it did not gain much experience, so it is likely just as vulnerable as at the beginning of the war.

Hartwig



durnedwolf -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 1:44:16 PM)

The Strategic map does not look bad in regards to the territory captured by Japan. Where is dontra85 currently focusing his operations? The DEI? You seem to have your sub fleet virtually intact. That's a handy tool to try and get dontra85 to change focus if you can focus on an area (like, perhaps, the South China Sea) where his resource TFs are getting dinged.

How is your Naval Search coverage on the map? NY59Giants is normally pretty good about establishing an aerial network of PBY and such to start tracking Japan's naval forces.



modrow -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 2:29:17 PM)

@ durnedwolf:

This is a strange aspect of the game right now, but eventually this is just a momentary situation, NY59Giants may be able to tell. This is the strategic map displaying enemy TFs. See any ? Me neither.



This is in spite of search operating from Koepang, Lautem, Ambon checking the DEI; Torres strait/approaches to Australian east coast, Carnavon for potential moves against NW Australia, Luganville for approaches from Solomons and several Pacific bases. I am relatively blind in the Indian Ocean/Bay of Bengal though.

The part of the sub fleet that is not in process of upgrading (numerous subs are doing that or marching to a shipyard to do that) is also currently traing to help in finding the enemy with a focus of the DEI.

On the other hand, there seem to be a lot of troops that are still fighting. According to NY59Giants, 6+ division assaulted Java, 8 divisions are still reducing Bataan, and a rag tag collection of naval guards is in process of finishing off Tulagi.

Hartwig





[image]local://upfiles/22130/A39211C20DD844C9A178C0E844263A44.jpg[/image]



modrow -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 2:43:13 PM)

@ Durnedwolf 2:

Dontra85 also so far did not fly too many recon missions (which may also hint at his intentions) according to the aoperationsreport files. Outside of China, the only places he has been reconning since I took over are Port Blair and Koepang. How indiciative this is for his moves, I cannot tell yet.

Hartwig



ny59giants -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 3:19:03 PM)

Most of KB and a strong SC TF covered and operated around Tulagi. They haven't been seen for a few weeks. They did drop down and bombard Luganville, but damage was light (not enough recon was done before to raise DL). I kept DS at Darwin to protect Timor and area.

I had a bunch of small xAKL with supply leave Brisbane/Sydney for Luganville. I was going to form them into sigle ship TFs to run supplies up to Tulagi.



modrow -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 5:02:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants_MatrixForum

Most of KB and a strong SC TF covered and operated around Tulagi. They haven't been seen for a few weeks. They did drop down and bombard Luganville, but damage was light (not enough recon was done before to raise DL). I kept DS at Darwin to protect Timor and area.

I had a bunch of small xAKL with supply leave Brisbane/Sydney for Luganville. I was going to form them into sigle ship TFs to run supplies up to Tulagi.


[:)] I'm glad that was your plan, because did split them into several groups of ships even when approaching Luganville. But they are still a bit away from their destination, plus I diverted some of them. I did not find much shipping space available at Australian bases.

Interestingly, Donald seems to use numerous naval bombers in China. A waste IMO, but fine with me [:D]. Did you encounter his Netties anywhere else recently?

And did you find a correlation between his recon activities and his future plans? Can they be used to predict them, or does he cover them in some randomized recon activity? Any other habits that one can use against him?

Hartwig



ny59giants -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 5:35:03 PM)

Lots of different IJN bombers are present in China - Nell, Betty, and Vals. The big boys will go after Chungking every once in while. I have two AA units south of Ledo marching to China. I would send them to Chungking and offer a surprise to him for continuous bombings. [;)]



modrow -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 6:58:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants_MatrixForum

Lots of different IJN bombers are present in China - Nell, Betty, and Vals. The big boys will go after Chungking every once in while. I have two AA units south of Ledo marching to China. I would send them to Chungking and offer a surprise to him for continuous bombings. [;)]


Aye. But the quickest way to more AAA in China are some of the US equipped corps (at least 5th, 6th, 14th). They use device 1124, which can be upgraded via 1129 to 1132. In other words, that's a unit that can embed 36 40mm Bofors, which are pulled from US device pools that are deep enough to allow for this if you want it. Also does wonders to defensive firepower of those units. This ability should always be considered when deciding how and where to use these units, they need special attention.

Some of the other US equipped corps can pull Vickers AAMGs, but those do not only just upgrade to Lewis/Bren but are in short supply anyway. Better than nothing, because lousy AAA does not kill planes easily but still reduces bombing efficiency, but nowhere near as good.

Of course, for all of this you need enough supply - not just for conversion, also for operation. In China, it's always a daunting task to provide it.

Hartwig



obvert -> RE: Summary of naval war (7/24/2018 7:03:27 PM)

For temporary supply to China it's always possible to use the 4E and 2E from Ledo. Mr Kane has shown this to be very effective in the short term to keep units fighting and stall a Japanese offensive.



modrow -> Supply use in china (7/24/2018 8:43:06 PM)

Talking about supply and its optimized use in China, has anyone an opininon on this:

We typically are focussed on trying to give Chinese LCUs a chance to soak up more rifle squads (or at least I always used to be). But recently, I have started to ask myself whether the priority should be adding support squads first. IIRC those help to reduce disablements more quickly and, accordingly, could help to reduce the disablements and thus perhaps even increase fighting power in the long view more than the addition of rifle squads. Any experts around who tested this?

Thanks

Hartwig



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