RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 3:12:27 PM)

6/18/44

Battle of Ternate: Ditto.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/BE494E1BA0A64FB38950B3C250EC547B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 3:23:43 PM)

6/18/44

Battle of Ternate: Dave has cleared from Ternate, but this battle may not be decided yet. He may return with reinforcements, a sub may turn the tables, luck may prove fickle, etc.

DS & The Herd will remain largely stationary one more day, awaiting the last transports and working to fend off enemy subs and other warlike implements. Two supply TFs will make for Ternate, hoping that Dave is truly retreating. If things go well tomorrow, the full-scale relief of Ternate will begin.

(Dave has about 700 AV ashore to my 325; my guys are low on supply; I sure hope he doesn't attack tomorrow or the next day; in three days, I think the base will be secure.)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/93EB2271DF7F4B22A20CB49A8F93A13A.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 3:50:57 PM)

6/18/44

Voyage of the CA Pensacola: She's been holed up at Ternate for more than a month, undergoing emergency repairs after taking crippling damage more than a month ago. She'd been at pierside until about six turns ago, when KB appeared on the horizon. Given the enemy shipping that was then parked on Ternate for more than a week, she just huddled unnoticed in the port. There's a chance she could leave tomorrow, but probably I'll get cold feet due to the number of enemy subs lurking. Better to leave her right where she is if the Allies take control and secure Ternate.

CVE Suwanee was in the same boat and holed up at the dot hex to the south. Dave eventually found her and finished her off. His strike aircraft also hit Pensacola at Ternate, almost finishing her off. But I think Dave forgot about that with all that's been going on.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C65A8E18251C443AA5DE87185D0BB97B.jpg[/image]



JohnDillworth -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 4:36:07 PM)

If I were your opponent I would reload the KB with strike aircraft and come at you hammer and tongs. You can't really hit back with aircraft. Worst case he loses all his strike aircraft. I think he is coming back



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 4:55:48 PM)

He might be, but he's lost three large allotments of strike aircraft in the past couple of months. KB is potent, but an attack would likely turn out like the last one - lots of Japanese aircraft down while molesting but not crippling DS.

His task is also complicated by Ternate's level 3 (4?) airfield, which has some Allied fighters.

So I think the Allies have the upper hand temporarily. And if supply gets ashore at Ternate, so that it's stabilized, the Allies have promising long term prospects here.

This op was to secure Ternate. It's worth it if it succeeds. If it doesn't succeed.....



uncivil_servant -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 5:33:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's good analysis by BBfanboy. I agree that Japan starts with an advantage the narrows. In this case, it'll flip entirely once the Allied get Soerabaja's big yard.

I'm not sure Allied damage control works any more. My past three games, damage control has appeared vastly different than it did during the early years. BAck then, an Allied ship that was afloat had better than even chance to make it somewhere. Now it seems that Allied ships are more likely to sink than not. (That's a thought that's been lurking in the background for the past three years or so; not enough to form a theory, but perhaps a hypothesis; but I don't sandbox.)


Which Mod are you using? I would be VERY interested if there was a stealth edit done to, or an accidental change, done to repair values.



Lovejoy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 5:50:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: uncivil_servant
Which Mod are you using? I would be VERY interested if there was a stealth edit done to, or an accidental change, done to repair values.


I think CR's playing stock scenario 2



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 6:14:38 PM)

I think so too. (I'm not certain because I just play whatever my opponent sends when we begin the game.)



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 7:07:33 PM)

Seeing that DD force that is out of ammo heading toward Sorong instead of Babeldaob suggests that Sorong has AKEs or ADs. Time to switch some of those airfield suppression HBs to a port strike at Sorong! [:)]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 8:44:56 PM)

6/19/44 and 6/20/44

We kept flipping turns so fast that I didn't pause to post, as I was also trying to get some work done. A lot happened, sort alike this:

DEI: As projected, KB and the Kaigun retired, leaving Ternate undefended except by subs.

Allied supply came ashore - bumping levels from 0 to 6k on the 19th and to 15k on the 20th. Reinforcements likewise landed, increasing AV from 325 to about 525. There are also a few more engineers, so that more fighters and some other squadrons came in, and fort building finally commenced. Dave has a big, strong army at Ternate but he won't take it unless he's able to win a major carrier battle.

There were many more ASW/sub skirmishes. At least eight IJN subs suffered heavy damage or were sunk over these two days. There were also enemy LBA raids on the 20th. They managed to make it through the CAP and damage and sink a few ships at Ternate.

Over these two turns, I lost a few LSTs, LCIs and a DE or two, to subs and aircraft. Nothing significant. Over the past week, I've lost 10 valuable DEs (8 in surface action, two to subs). During the past three weeks, I've lost about eight subs (most of those when Dave sent ASW to clear the lanes around Ternate and Morotai two weeks ago).

Down at Ambon, Dave's army tried a third deliberate attack. This was the first that achieved as good as 1:1. But the attackers suffered disproportionately heavy casualties. A reinforcing USA division is loading at Darwin, in prep for insertion if things continue to go well.



T Rav -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/25/2019 10:25:15 PM)

Do you have a rough comparison of sub losses so far? Seems like lots on IJ side, but not sure on Allied.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:07:49 AM)

I don't have the game open at the moment, so I'll give definitive numbers later.

THe Allies have lost eight subs in the past three weeks. Before that, losses were occasional. All told, perhaps 30-40 have been lost to date.

Dave has committed three or four big waves of subs since the Allies arrived at Milne Bay some months back. Each time, he's suffered heavy losses. I think he's lost between 70 and 90 subs to date - probably 10-20 in the past week.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:08:54 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Seeing that DD force that is out of ammo heading toward Sorong instead of Babeldaob suggests that Sorong has AKEs or ADs. Time to switch some of those airfield suppression HBs to a port strike at Sorong! [:)]


You may be right. Recon reports an AKE there, so some 2EB will target the port tomorrow. :)



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:10:49 AM)

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: This is the fifth enemy sub torpedoed by a USN sub in the past six weeks or so.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/45C73910EE4A41E38AF54749BA027C48.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:14:26 AM)

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: I think this was the biggest swarm of subs committed by Dave yet. He's lost a bunch and many others are damaged, including some already in this turn that I chose not to copy and paste. It looks like a large contingent of his subs are closing on Ternate, a fair number are working on DS, and some are down near Boela, guarding the direct route home.

During this turn, his subs will pick off two or three LSTs and and LCI. All were empty, having delivered supply or troops to Ternate. Like the DEs lost a few turns back, these are very useful ships. But this is the perfect environment to use them in.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/F2948B25BC0546CE94BFE341B0F3515F.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:21:08 AM)

6/29/44

Battle of Ternate: Dave commits a bunch of subs against the troop transports at Ternate, but they blunder into a newly sowed minefield. Among other damage, this weakens the subs, making them susceptible to further ASW efforts.

This field was newly sowed by one sub and the two DMs that ran into enemy combat TFs a few turns back. That TF did good work.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/E47892A69A0345AA8698E42260B8E87B.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:22:31 AM)

Your ASW ships must have incredibly high crew experience levels after all this action. That does not bode well for Japanese subs. [:)]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:23:56 AM)

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: A mine victim is finished off.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/FCE79AC6343B4CB4878E177DD4275E5B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:33:04 AM)

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: The last major ASW clash this noisy day.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E2AC8DC406FB48048B4F065B5CD2E2E7.jpg[/image]



CaptBeefheart -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:50:30 AM)

I like that: Two LSTs taking out a sub on the surface. Keep up the good work.

Cheers,
CB



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 1:29:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I like that: Two LSTs taking out a sub on the surface. Keep up the good work.

Cheers,
CB

I don't trust the "sub slips beneath the waves" epitaph unless it is followed by sinking sounds immediately.
What's the biggest gun on an LST? 40mm? But we don't know if a lot of those hits are 50 cal MG hits or even 20mm.
And RO-41 took two mine hits + 23 other hits to sink, while the I-29 only took one mine plus 18 from the LSTs.
But I hope you're right about it sinking.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 1:43:50 PM)

My analysis of sub damage is somewhat odd. I don't turn up sound at work, so I don't have access to the audible "breaking up" confirmation. On the other hand, when my own subs take "heavy damage" during a turn, they almost always immediately sink.

By the way, BBfanboy, the port raid sank a damaged sub and scored "heavy fires/heavy damage" on two ADs and an AV. Your comment led directly to that raid.



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 2:21:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My analysis of sub damage is somewhat odd. I don't turn up sound at work, so I don't have access to the audible "breaking up" confirmation. On the other hand, when my own subs take "heavy damage" during a turn, they almost always immediately sink.

By the way, BBfanboy, the port raid sank a damaged sub and scored "heavy fires/heavy damage" on two ADs and an AV. Your comment led directly to that raid.

Thanks for the feedback. I sort of imagined all the stuff you have to deal with while setting up the next turn and thought the two DDs out of ammo heading to Sorong might not be noticed so I threw it out there.

I hope your success means those DDs are still out of ammo, and forces the Japanese to pull back their other support ships in range of your HBs. Or spread out their CAP to cover those bases more heavily.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 2:25:23 PM)

He did withdraw his carriers and combat ships a week ago, as DS approached, partly (no doubt) because many of his combat TFs had expended ammo. He needed to replenish.

But we've played a week's worth of turns since then, so they've had time to replenish at Davao or whatever his new port of call is.

I didn't originally think the retirement of that TF towards Sorong meant anything, because it was out of ammo and kept reacting away from one of my surface combat TFs. IE, I thought it was just a random retreat. And it might've been. But it tipped you off to an idea that tipped me off to an idea. :)



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 3:46:24 PM)

Your well-annotated maps made it easy to come up with ideas. Kudos on providing us such entertaining and informative material. Makes it very easy to follow the situation. [sm=happy0065.gif]
Luck in the days ahead!


[image]local://upfiles/35791/AF2C0D7E919541108021AE53ADF43B7C.gif[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:17:11 PM)

6/22/44

Battle of Ternate: Things are going well but KB suddenly pops up on the northwestern periphery.

The mission to reinforce and supply Ternate is basically complete. It was that mission - Ternate's paramount importance - that prompted me to sortie DS in the first place - into hostile, confined waters against a sizeable enemy carrier force. Since that motivation no longer exists, and since additional carriers are inbound in the short term (several triage carriers are nearly ready, plus six CVEs reinforcements are not far away), better to retire. In two or three weeks, DS will be much larger than it is today. If KB remains the same size, DS will then have a decided size advantage.

So DS given orders to pull back towards Boela, along with most of the shipping at Ternate.

But the mission may not be done yet. Depending on what Dave does next, the invasion of Namlea and the reinforcing invasion of Ambon are still on the table.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/55CD5581E7EE46CB89C8A20C7B923D56.jpg[/image]



jwolf -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:42:45 PM)

The decision to retire certainly makes sense to me. I suppose you should beware of a possible sprint attack from Dave as he has done that before.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:47:52 PM)

Yes, that's a possibility. It's okay if he does, for DS's CAP will be bolstered by some good LBA fighters at Boela.

But I don't think he'll come too far forward. He'll be leery of the Allied subs around Ternate and the threat posed by Allied airfields (that's minimal but it's human nature to play it up). That's my guess, based on how I've seen him handle things.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 4:49:05 PM)

P.S. I also sent two USN TFs forward about four hexes from Ternate, set to retire back to Boela - just in case the enemy does move boldly towards the base.



Gridley380 -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 5:21:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Your well-annotated maps made it easy to come up with ideas. Kudos on providing us such entertaining and informative material. Makes it very easy to follow the situation. [sm=happy0065.gif]
Luck in the days ahead!


[image]local://upfiles/35791/AF2C0D7E919541108021AE53ADF43B7C.gif[/image]


Indeed! I also appreciate the time you're putting into this AAR.



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