RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 5:44:08 PM)

It's fun doing it, so thanks to all of y'all for reading.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 6:33:03 PM)

6/24/44

Battle of Ternate: Dave pulls back KB, as I move DS down towards Boela. There are no major sea/sub clashes. Dave sends bombers to try Ternate's CAP (and he did the same yesterday). Both times, the Japanese aircraft got chewed up.

DS will loiter for a day to try to get a finger on the pulse of Dave's intentions. Additional Allied offensive activity remains a possibility.

Way down south, a few triage carriers finish repairs and leave port. In ten days, DS will have another CV, CVL, and about nine CVES. In four weeks, two or three additional CVs will be ready.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0EF72A5E9928422CA004043828454E3B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 6:57:58 PM)

A question I have posed to myself: Was it and is it worthwhile to get embroiled in time-consuming fights for places like Ambon and Ternate? Would it be better to detach DS and the Allied ground forces to move on, to newer ground?

I chose to get embroiled, for a number of reasons. First, so many Allied carriers and combat vessels needed time in yards that there was a window where major expeditionary action wasn't likely for awhile. Second, I like the configuration of the bases and the OOBs. This is good ground to fight for. The key was taking and building Timor big. Until the Allies get a few big bases forward it can be a real hazardous and costly to try to get started from Oz. Here things happened so quickly that I was able to seize Timor and forward islands and get lodgments on Celebes and the Moluccas. Now this is good territory to hunt enemy subs, ships and aircraft.



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/26/2019 10:09:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A question I have posed to myself: Was it and is it worthwhile to get embroiled in time-consuming fights for places like Ambon and Ternate? Would it be better to detach DS and the Allied ground forces to move on, to newer ground?

I chose to get embroiled, for a number of reasons. First, so many Allied carriers and combat vessels needed time in yards that there was a window where major expeditionary action wasn't likely for awhile. Second, I like the configuration of the bases and the OOBs. This is good ground to fight for. The key was taking and building Timor big. Until the Allies get a few big bases forward it can be a real hazardous and costly to try to get started from Oz. Here things happened so quickly that I was able to seize Timor and forward islands and get lodgments on Celebes and the Moluccas. Now this is good territory to hunt enemy subs, ships and aircraft.

I think you are winning the Numerator/Denominator battle too, with your damage control advantage keeping losses down and some points for seized bases. Not too sure about LCU and Aircraft points. Reducing his oil/fuel draw has to count for something too even if you get no VPs for that.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 1:46:24 AM)

6/25/44

"It's the denominator, stupid!" Here's the current intel screen. For comparison purposes, scroll back a few pages to about 6/6/44, the date the Allies drew even in points. I posted the same screen then.

The air war has gone very well. The Allies have destroyed hundreds of aircraft on the ground the past few weeks. Especially at Waigeo, Sorong, Ambon, Namlea and Kendari. I think the total number of Japanese aircraft destroyed the past three weeks has risen dramatically (but somewhat offset by the big, weird air battle in which I lost 300 naval aircraft and Dave lost 250+ that were on search and/or ASW missions.

While the denominator is the key to victory, there are larger issues. There are times a player has to put his head down and push or advance or fight. Even if the VPs aren't favorable, doing so may gain some key advantage that overrides everything else. I think there's an element of that here. The Allies had pushed hard, far, fast. Then I had to buckle down and deal with Dave's strong counterattacks.

And the real bottom line? "It's about the fun, chum!"

[image]local://upfiles/8143/3FF00B58CFB24AF9B3A1A6BAC7D14D9E.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 1:48:48 AM)

It looks like Dave's lost 450+ aircraft on the ground the past 19 days.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 1:51:20 AM)

6/25/44

DEI: KB remains stationary in the Sulu Sea. Allied landings take place at Namlea and Ambon, without incident.

The Japs have a naval guard unit at Namlea. 41st USA Div. (fresh from Marcus, but 100% prepped for Namlea) came ashore in great shape. This shouldn't be a major contest.

At Ambon, a reinforcing division landed. Dave is very strong here. The landing is meant to stabilize the contest, ensuring that the Japanese can't defeat the one division that was ashore. Lots more Allied troops are nearly fully prepped at Darwin, and they'll come forward fairly soon.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 10:16:50 AM)

6/26/44

Battle of Ambon: Here comes KB! Dave moves his carriers, apparently at flank speed, from the Sulu Sea to north of Kendari. They end up eight hexes from DS's position yesterday, eight hexes from DS's ordered position for today, and closer to Allied shipping at Namlea and Ambon.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/6BF462282C72427BA91A843C029008F7.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 10:20:45 AM)

6/26/44

Battle of Ambon: KB launches it's alpha strike early in the a.m. phase.

This is Dave's second 8-hex strike in a month but this time it doesn't matter, for DS is configured solely defensively. (So many strike aircraft were lost in the most recent carrier engagement - their places taken by additional fighters.)


[image]local://upfiles/8143/F49044B9A23C455FB4DA3CF36DF2F525.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 10:23:37 AM)

6/26/44

Battle of Ambon: After the alpha strike, smaller strikes seek shipping from Namlea to Ambon to Ternate. Most of these gets treated roughly. One gets through to molest the big transports. Another sinks two low-value DDs guarding the straights. A lot of IJN aircraft downed for little return.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/F65F69BEEC634E2FA3472877B2E46310.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 10:25:24 AM)

6/26/44

Battle of Ambon: P.M. strikes are smaller, CAP does well, two hits scored, neither does more than minimal damage.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9D0083C2EA574497963BAE2C0ABE738E.jpg[/image]



HansBolter -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 12:45:46 PM)

Will you close the distance seeking a strike, or will your paucity of strike aircraft and your need to cover landing forces cause you to sit still and dare him to try a second strike?



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 12:56:05 PM)

I only have a handful of strike aircraft aboard (they're doing ASW duty). When DS sailed from Darwin, I knew she had only one strike to give, because she was top-heavy with CVEs. She gave that strike about ten turns back, then converted over to defense.

No way Dave comes forward after that debacle, so my guys will stay in play a few more day to deliver supply to the two beachheads.



jwolf -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 12:57:06 PM)

It has to be discouraging for the Japanese to fly into a 1000 plane CAP.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 1:00:11 PM)

6/26/44

Battle of Ambon: IJN carrier air paid a steep price.

This is much bigger than a "denominator" clash, but from that standpoint the Allies came out ahead about 4:1. He lost 400+ aircraft. I lost about 100 points, between aircraft, one good APA (it surprised me and sank), an AK and two small DDs.

This creates new opportunities that I'll be mulling over this weekend (out of town for a family get together). CV Formidable, a USN CVL, and eight CVEs will arrive at Darwin in about five days. From there, the enhanced DS will likely escort troops to handle Kendari plus Bima and maybe Mataram and Denpassar. Also under consideration will be proceeding with the invasion of Java.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/2886EA60675842528CCC604062FA103D.jpg[/image]



821Bobo -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 1:53:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

It has to be discouraging for the Japanese to fly into a 1000 plane CAP.


This is much more close to reality than what Anachro has to deal with in that pure fantasy scenario from parallel universe he is playing.



jwolf -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 2:04:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

It has to be discouraging for the Japanese to fly into a 1000 plane CAP.


This is much more close to reality than what Anachro has to deal with in that pure fantasy scenario from parallel universe he is playing.



Oh, I agree completely. But it still must be hard on the Japanese player.

BTW Dan, now I have learned of a new type of battle: a "denominator clash" [:D]



Bif1961 -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/27/2019 2:04:02 PM)

So you pulled the Ali rope-a-dope and let his Foreman KB punch himself out, while you conserve and build the attack strength of the DS to deal with him next time he ventures forth with a KB sortie like this. On the upside every time he does this his aircrew replacements are probably of a lower experience and quality, while you fighters have gained in kills, and experience.



Crackaces -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/28/2019 1:16:59 PM)

Did you see torp’s drop and miss? Or is the KB out of torpedoes? If so, they have to reload in a safe port with torpedoes.
Somehow losing 400 air platforms without the enemy losing major capital ships I.e CV’s means a loss of initiative. I think of the Mariana’s Turkey-shoot IRL.



JohnDillworth -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/28/2019 2:53:42 PM)

So both sides have now suffered massive losses of naval strike aircraft. Looks a lot like 1943 where the CVs were pretty much removed from the field. At this point the allies have plenty of things they can do including building and consolidation. If they want to move forward the next big leap will require the CVs to reload. Depending on plane and pilot pools this may take a bit. Both sides have good, interlocking bases. Allies might have a good edge in LB air and surface ships. Plenty of fun to come me thinks



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/30/2019 1:34:33 PM)

I think (*think*) Japanese naval air pilot losses have been much higher than Allied. The Allies have engaged in a couple of costly offensive raids but only about half as many as Japan. Most of the fighting has occurred over the Allied fleet, where (presumably) ships would rescue a fair number of pilots. My pools of aircraft and pilots look good.

So, at the moment, I think the Allies can resume an offensive posture. DS will retire briefly to port to bring all squadrons up to full strength and to await the arrival of the new/repaired carriers. Then the fleets will move out.

This is one of those times when defense is a higher priority than offense. It's much more likely that the Allies will undergo large-scale attacks (from LBA primarily but possibly also KB), while the chances of KB coming into range is relatively slight. So DS will retain the fighter-heavy orientation, with the strike aircraft concentrating on search and ASW missions.

Edited to add this: P.S. The Japanese navy and air force remains potent. Dave, with his network of interlocking bases and the ability to spring KB and combat TFs forward will remain dangerous for a long time to come.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/30/2019 1:40:16 PM)

6/26/44 to 6/30/44

DEI: KB retired (probably towards Manila). DS remained near Namlea for two more turns, then made for port to replenish. It looks like the Allies will take Namlea in a few days. Ternate and Ambon are stable. The Allies are looking further. Recent SigInt reports a mixed brigade inbound to Manado, which is a sensible deployment. Longer-term SigInt has shown a focus on the Philippines, too. Dave seems oriented towards a northeastward move by the Allies, which probably is consistent with what he most fears and where he feels the most vulnerable. But the Allies will continue the original vector, with Soerabaja and eventually Singapore the major targets.

New Guinea: While all that was going on, an Aussie brigade landed at weakly-held Hollandia. It should fall in a few days.

Marcus: Patrols picked up an enemy TF moving SE from the Volcano Islands region. Possibly a move on Marcus. Defenses there are okay - about 60 AV behind three forts but with a heckuva lot of CD guns.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/30/2019 3:53:16 PM)

7/1/44

DEI: SigInt confirms BB Nagato sunk at Singapore during that surprise nighttime B-29 raid from Waingapoe.

No sign of KB.

Allied bombers continue to suppress enemy airfields from Kendari to Sorong.

DS disbanded, refuels (except for CVEs), replenishes ammo/sorties, and tops off aircraft and pilots. All carrier aircraft shut down for maintenance for a few days.

The reinforcing carriers will arrive at Darwin tomorrow.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/30/2019 5:22:54 PM)

7/2/44

DEI: Recent SigInt confirms CL Natori and Kiso sunk during battles a month or more back, south of Soerabaja, plus a mixed brigade bound for Babeldaob. That adds to the impression that Dave is focused on the territory between the DEI and Formosa.

Hollandia and Namlea fall to the Allies. Dave was using Namlea's airfield to support Ambon, and the base is an important pick up on the northern periphery, to support future ops.

Reinforcing carriers arrive at Darwin. A few swap out FM-2s for Hellcats. All will depart Darwin tonight.

No sign of KB. Dave doesn't have (and hasn't had) any detection on DS since before it departed the Ambon area nearly a week ago. Anti intellectus ex nihilo.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (10/1/2019 1:35:28 AM)

A few thoughts on the eve of a major Allied operation:

House Rules: We don't have any. It's been a real pleasure not to deal with them. A real pleasure. Dave's made it easy because he's so easy-going. I can't think of a time he's pushed the envelope.

On my side, I've done things a lot differently in this game, to date. Allied carriers have always been somewhat dispersed, so that there hasn't been a true DS. Right now, for instance, there are 10 carriers at Ceylon (2 CVL, 8 CVE), 10 at Pearl (two CV, 8 CVL), 3 at Townsville (3 CV) and two at Sydney (a CV and a CVE). I started the game with that in mind, hoping to capitalize by being able to strike in more than one place; hoping to have more opportunities to strike. Perhaps as a result, I've lost more carriers in this game than I have in my games vs. John III and Obvert combined. But Japan had to (needed to?) react by also splitting its own carriers, which indeed created some opportunities.

There have long been grumblings about night bombing. While we don't have any HRs, I've kept nighttime raids under 50 aircraft, to this point. I'm about to bump that up to somewhere between 50-75, if enough find the target, which doesn't seem exorbitant given the late date. Night bombing has indeed been effective, partly because the Allies have been bombing isolated bases without rail service to a nearby airfield. That seriously impacts the ability to use magical rail rehabilitation of fatigued bombers.

I haven't used merchantmen as picket ships. There are enough YMS, SC, AM and the occasional DD to handle this duty - at least against Dave, who hasn't been real aggressive behind my lines.

I'm so accustomed to playing John III and Obvert, facing multitudinous advanced frames and elite pilots, that the recent IJ carrier strike caught me by surprise - all Zero 5c models as escort. No Georges or Franks or Randys or Hornets.

From time to time, DS has been configured mainly for defense, stripped of most strike aircraft and heavy on fighters. This has allowed Dave to make a number of attacks that didn't expose KB to counterattacks. He's gotten in some licks but has lost a ton of aircraft. He used the same strategy at least once (near Ternate, not long ago).

Years ago I played Chez-da-Jez, who was interested in a historical match and wasn't prepared for a non-linear, hyper game. He just didn't enjoy it. I hope that's not happening with this game. Dave isn't a mod-freak nor is he an envelope pusher. I've become accustomed to playing pretty radically to counter John III mods and Obvert non-linear tactics, and I'm inclined that way anyhow. To me, this game has been a blast and has meandered along without controversy. I hope Dave feels that same way.



obvert -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (10/1/2019 10:13:01 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There have long been grumblings about night bombing. While we don't have any HRs, I've kept nighttime raids under 50 aircraft, to this point. I'm about to bump that up to somewhere between 50-75, if enough find the target, which doesn't seem exorbitant given the late date. Night bombing has indeed been effective, partly because the Allies have been bombing isolated bases without rail service to a nearby airfield. That seriously impacts the ability to use magical rail rehabilitation of fatigued bombers.



It's tough because we're playing a game that the devs did so well to balance, but admitted that certain aspects simply didn't get done in time for release. Or at all, even after so many years of brilliant support (michaelm THANK YOU!!).

Devs that play, or have played WITP AE themselves have stated multiple times that they themselves use HRs. They're not for everyone, and I don't advocate many as you know, but I do believe that to mitigate some unsolved problems just a couple are useful. (In our game the majority of HRs were suggested by the Allied player, a trained historian who couldn't stomach really unrealistic outcomes like China falling completely to the Japanese, Allied bombing there against Strat targets, or night bombing airfields/ports with high success rates that were unattainable with period equipment).

I agreed with Historiker about night bombing and was willing to go along with other suggestions as they seemed about balance. This is what of course makes a game able to get into the late stages, when both players feel they still have some ability to control outcomes.

Night bombing isn't a win-all proposition, but in the early stages especially, it can skew outcomes to the point where forward air defense is untenable. While the Japanese in the war had other difficulties defending airfields (and supplying and re-stocking airfields), they didn't have to worry about night bombing so much. This is why the NF groups don't exist in the early going in game, and why there are no dedicated NF until sometime in 43.

quote:



I'm so accustomed to playing John III and Obvert, facing multitudinous advanced frames and elite pilots, that the recent IJ carrier strike caught me by surprise - all Zero 5c models as escort. No Georges or Franks or Randys or Hornets.


This is the best escort before the A6M8 and Sam. The 5c does a great job of taking hits and getting bombers through due to it's armour and heavy gun armament.


quote:


To me, this game has been a blast and has meandered along without controversy. I hope Dave feels that same way.


Maybe a good time to ask about the night bombing if there has been some grumbling. You're limiting it, but if you expand, will that create tension?



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (10/1/2019 10:47:38 AM)

House Rules always come packed with unintended consequences, so I prefer doing away with them and then working things out along the way.

This turn's raid that I thought might have more than 50 night bombers ended up having 30, due to so many aircraft losing their way in the darkness. So still well within the typical limit.

But those 30 destroyed around 130 enemy aircraft on the ground at Soerabaja. That's okay, as Dave has the airfield packed with hundreds of aircraft that would participate in coordinated strikes with Georges and Randys as escorts. Hellcats stand no chance against them, so I need a fair way to reduce the threat before KB arrives. The balance feels about right.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (10/1/2019 3:12:41 PM)

7/3/44 to 7/6/44

DEI: With some trepidation, DS & The Herd departed Koepang, bound for Java. The prospect of possibly facing both KB and Soerabaja's level 9 airfield was intimidating. More so as the armada neared the half way point and the enormity of the undertaking came into focus.

B-29s targeted Soerabaja airfield on the 6th and 7th, doing good work. ABout 200 aircraft destroyed on the ground. Still, some sortied, blew through Hellcat LRCAP, and sank a nice LST TF.

DS moved six hexes day one and slowed to three day two (thus exposing the LSTs, which moved further). That left it six hexes from Bandjowangi (sp?), a small and apparently vacant base on the southwestern (SE, true) extremity of Java. I ordered DS to move just three more hexes and figured I'd make the final call - a tough one it would be - the following day.

But on the 7th, long-range recon found KB sitting in Manila, well over 30 hexes from the beach. While Soerabaja is still open, it's pretty damaged. Without KB support, the threat is manageable. So the fleet is ordered to proceed to the beach.

That's where we'll leave things for a couple of days. My family and I are heading to Kentucky to say our farewells to a good man. He was a longtime pastor and an assistant quartermaster on a DE in SoPac during WWII. He was my stepfather. He passed away Friday, so we're heading to his funeral. I'll see y'all in a few days.




USSAmerica -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (10/2/2019 4:26:38 PM)

My condolences on your loss, Dan.



Lovejoy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (10/2/2019 4:33:58 PM)

My condolences on your loss as well



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