RE: Bill Brings Banzai

RE: Bill Brings Banzai (Full Version)

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Lowpe -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 2:56:22 PM)
You have to be careful with Pax's language. When he talks about accelerating planes, he means a minimum of 3 size 30 factories. Put two factories on Nick D and two on Irving S - SA. I also usually put one on Dinah NF, one of Zero NF (to enlarge the navy squadrons), and perhaps 2 on Frances. Some of the most definitive threads on night fighting can be found in Obvert vs Jocke in the last several pages. If you screw up your NF r&d you can potentially get really punished. Of course you can do everything right, and the Allies totally ignore night bombing.[;)] Tojo IIc is a valuable plane for the whole game, but isn't nearly as important as the Sam and Frank and becomes a special use/defensive plane in 44+. Jack vs George. Jack is a more defensive fighter, George is a great sweeper. I like to have both. Be wary of building a ton of twin engine fighters, very tough on the economy, but with Scen 2 you have some to spare hopefully.

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 4:49:41 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown I found this post by Paxmondo in Mike Solli's thread, it seems right. I'm no longer a fan of accelerating NF's. The issue is so few groups and then so few planes in those groups. Don't miss understand. I build the best one. I'd rather have some really good fighters early. As you note, you can't get everything early. If you are going N1K and A7M for IJN and Ki-84 and Ki-83 for IJA, i would go 12x30 N1K, 12x30 A7M, 18x30 Ki-84 and 12x30 Ki83. Minimum. that's 54 taken. Then 6 - 9 on A6M. It's your best fighter through '42. The rest pretty much as they arrive. They all have trade-offs. You should see: N1K in early '43. If you are lucky Feb/Mar. Yes the statistics say Apr (50%), BUT this is a one sided curve AND a high deviation (meaning broad, not sharp). It comes in Sept 100%. It's like a 20% chance to have it in Jan IIRC with 12. People forget that, they only remember the 50% mark … plus remember the second benefit: you have 360 production right away. 12 planes/day. 3 days to fill a 36 plane group. You get 2 groups converted to N1K every week. A7M - Late 44. 12/44, close to that. Ki-84 - 8/43 - 9/43. Something like that. Just after you get the Tojo-c. So you are going to fly the Tojo-a a long time. ki-83 - somewhere just at the beginning of 45 … 1/45 or so. This will give you a 430 mph AC when the allies are also flying them. 9/45 when they start flying +460 mph aircraft you'll still be competitive. So, by that logic, no effectively new airframes until 9/43? Wait until 12/44-1/45 for your most competitive fighters? Flying antiquated Ki-44-IIa throughout most of 1943? With all due respect, I disagree with this logic. Perhaps this optimizes very late war production, but at what expense? By ceding the qualitative air war to the Allies throughout 1943, what is the strategic cost borne by that? Do you get your premiere fighters online and distributed just in time to have the home islands firebombed into oblivion anyways? Will you be able to attrit Allied fighter pilot quality as well as you would with earlier more capable fighters? Bill: Perhaps I misunderstood your 'sounds about right' comment. Were you referring to the contribution of late war fighters to your war production effort or were you referring to the comparatively 'tamed' advancing of the late war fighters (only pulling them forward 8-12 months) versus the 18-month option that I outlined previously?

Mike Solli -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 4:53:04 PM)
[sm=00000613.gif] Bill, as you're probably realizing, no two JFBs agree on Air R&D. [:D]

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 4:57:52 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Mike Solli [sm=00000613.gif] Bill, as you're probably realizing, no two JFBs agree on Air R&D. [:D] [:D] It's not that we disagree, Mike. It's just that every other JFB out there is doing it wrong. [;)] Reminds me of an observation I heard about American men: Every American man thinks he can do something better than every other American man: 1. Build a fire and 2. Manage a professional baseball team. For the JFB stalwarts of this game, I'd say managing air R&D is our baseball team.

Mike Solli -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 5:03:31 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: Mike Solli [sm=00000613.gif] Bill, as you're probably realizing, no two JFBs agree on Air R&D. [:D] [:D] It's not that we disagree, Mike. It's just that every other JFB out there is doing it wrong. [;)] Reminds me of an observation I heard about American men: Every American man thinks he can do something better than every other American man: 1. Build a fire and 2. Manage a professional baseball team. For the JFB stalwarts of this game, I'd say managing air R&D is our baseball team. [&o][:D]

mind_messing -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 5:05:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown I found this post by Paxmondo in Mike Solli's thread, it seems right. I'm no longer a fan of accelerating NF's. The issue is so few groups and then so few planes in those groups. Don't miss understand. I build the best one. I'd rather have some really good fighters early. As you note, you can't get everything early. If you are going N1K and A7M for IJN and Ki-84 and Ki-83 for IJA, i would go 12x30 N1K, 12x30 A7M, 18x30 Ki-84 and 12x30 Ki83. Minimum. that's 54 taken. Then 6 - 9 on A6M. It's your best fighter through '42. The rest pretty much as they arrive. They all have trade-offs. You should see: N1K in early '43. If you are lucky Feb/Mar. Yes the statistics say Apr (50%), BUT this is a one sided curve AND a high deviation (meaning broad, not sharp). It comes in Sept 100%. It's like a 20% chance to have it in Jan IIRC with 12. People forget that, they only remember the 50% mark … plus remember the second benefit: you have 360 production right away. 12 planes/day. 3 days to fill a 36 plane group. You get 2 groups converted to N1K every week. A7M - Late 44. 12/44, close to that. Ki-84 - 8/43 - 9/43. Something like that. Just after you get the Tojo-c. So you are going to fly the Tojo-a a long time. ki-83 - somewhere just at the beginning of 45 … 1/45 or so. This will give you a 430 mph AC when the allies are also flying them. 9/45 when they start flying +460 mph aircraft you'll still be competitive. So, by that logic, no effectively new airframes until 9/43? Wait until 12/44-1/45 for your most competitive fighters? Flying antiquated Ki-44-IIa throughout most of 1943? With all due respect, I disagree with this logic. Perhaps this optimizes very late war production, but at what expense? By ceding the qualitative air war to the Allies throughout 1943, what is the strategic cost borne by that? Do you get your premiere fighters online and distributed just in time to have the home islands firebombed into oblivion anyways? Will you be able to attrit Allied fighter pilot quality as well as you would with earlier more capable fighters? Bill: Perhaps I misunderstood your 'sounds about right' comment. Were you referring to the contribution of late war fighters to your war production effort or were you referring to the comparatively 'tamed' advancing of the late war fighters (only pulling them forward 8-12 months) versus the 18-month option that I outlined previously? Ah, the JFB opinions. None of them wrong, none of them quite right :) Holding off till 9/43 makes solid sense, as IMO there's no IJ plane that's real value for money that arrives before the N1K1, and the Allies are asset-limited. A mix of Zero, Oscar and Nick can perform well-enough against the Allied fighter models, and for most of '42 and into '43 the Allies don't have large numbers of good quality fighters. In that situation, it makes sense to put more effort in to the later, but more worthwhile IJ airframes. This helps the IJ player get ahead of increasing numbers of better quality airframes by getting key airframes in production earlier. In short, bringing the Tojo forward by three months has much less impact than bringing any of the late-war fighters forward by the same time frame.

BillBrown -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 5:09:33 PM)
Well, right or wrong I have made my R&D choices. I went with 6 x A6M2-N Rufe 12 x A7M2 Sam 12 x N1K1-J George 3 x J2M2 Jack 6 x Ki-44 Tojo 1 x Ki-44a tojo 12 x Ki-83 18 x Ki-84a Frank 2 x A6M5d Zero 2 x J1N1-S Irving 1 x Ki-46III KAI Dinah 2 x Ki-45KAId Nick 1 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen 1 x Ki-49-Ia helen 1 x Ki-115a Tsungi I want to thank everyone for their input I can still go back of course, I do have a save right before I did the R&D changes. I am going to take a break for a bit to let everything settle. I see ChickenBoy has an argument against what I did, need to think about it.

LargeSlowTarget -> RE: Bill does Japan (6/18/2019 5:15:03 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: jdsrae Billie Bombs Brisbane? I was trying to weave Bangkok into this but that wouldn’t make sense as it starts with the Empire. Ok, that’s the last one from me... Bill bangs Bangkok?

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 5:20:55 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: mind_messing In short, bringing the Tojo forward by three months has much less impact than bringing any of the late-war fighters forward by the same time frame. That's a false choice, given the setup though. One can bring forward Ki-44-IIc 18 months, versus the late-war fighters 8-12 months. That's the relevant comparative. By investing 8 factories in the Ki-44 line, I can produce IIa in May 1942 and rotate the other 5 onto IIc research program (that are fully repaired and researching IIc in April 1942). I can then have IIa in service May 1942, IIc in production December 1942. Those 10 months (12/42-9/43) are the tipping point for the air war. Providing the best opportunity for your pilots to stave off the Allied hordes during that 10 months of the war are not to be underestimated. Also, I'm only talking about 8 factories here. I don't see this as an either / or. Do you really need 12/12/18 for the late-war models cited? Could you make do with 10/10/14? It's not all about barbell risk profiles: smooth out the production a little and give yourself some resiliency in 1943. Finally, not to curse Bill's game, but few PBEM games go the distance. Very few. Denying the 1943 window of competitiveness to be modestly more competitive in 1944-1945 is often passing up any mid-late planes altogether, as most games will have 'ended' before then anyways.

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 5:26:17 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown Well, right or wrong I have made my R&D choices. I went with 6 x A6M2-N Rufe 12 x A7M2 Sam 12 x N1K1-J George 3 x J2M2 Jack 6 x Ki-44 Tojo 1 x Ki-44a tojo 12 x Ki-83 18 x Ki-84a Frank 2 x A6M5d Zero 2 x J1N1-S Irving 1 x Ki-46III KAI Dinah 2 x Ki-45KAId Nick 1 x Ki-49-II KAI Helen 1 x Ki-49-Ia helen 1 x Ki-115a Tsungi I want to thank everyone for their input I can still go back of course, I do have a save right before I did the R&D changes. I am going to take a break for a bit to let everything settle. I see ChickenBoy has an argument against what I did, need to think about it. Oops, didn't see this post while I was typing up my most recent. No worries, Bill. There's more than one way to skin a (Wild/Hell)cat. But your specific selections above are curious. Are we to assume that you'll switch the A6M2-N Rufe research to the A6M5 line as soon as it is repaired? Why research the Ki-44 versus the Ki-44-IIa per se? How many of these 6/7 factories will you produce versus switching to IIc research / production? Or were you planning on production with all of them? Also, why start the game researching the A6M5d? Why not research A6M5 and then 'run down' the chain of A6M5b/c/d when the research factories are completely repaired? If you were going to run down the A6M5 chain, why not start with the A6M2-N since those research factories will be repaired so much sooner?

BillBrown -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 5:58:10 PM)
Yes CB, the Rufes go to A6M5 and then on to the A6M5c, not sure about the A6M8 I thought the Ki-44 would repair quicker that the Ki-44-IIa, I now see there is only one month between them, maybe I will redo. I was under the impression that I can move fully repaired R&D factories ahead in the research path. I am not sure about how many to produce. I can enlarge one of them to produce more than 30 and let the other 6 continue to research. the A6M5d is a CV based Night Fighter. There is no factory upgrade to it.

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 6:29:49 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown Yes CB, the Rufes go to A6M5 and then on to the A6M5c, not sure about the A6M8 I thought the Ki-44 would repair quicker that the Ki-44-IIa, I now see there is only one month between them, maybe I will redo. I was under the impression that I can move fully repaired R&D factories ahead in the research path. I am not sure about how many to produce. I can enlarge one of them to produce more than 30 and let the other 6 continue to research. the A6M5d is a CV based Night Fighter. There is no factory upgrade to it. Good catch on the A6M5d. I'd forgotten that. Yes, you can move fully repaired R&D factories ahead in the research path. My ye olde Sc. 2 wire diagram of the upgrades shows 6/42 for Ki-44 and Ki-44-IIa. Perhaps that's been changed in the last few years-I didn't open the game to check dates. If you're going to research the Ki-44-IIc, I recommend keeping tabs on your Ha-35 engine pool. It's comparatively easier, IMO, to have a 500+ engine pool for the Ha-35 than the Ha-34, so that's a bonus on your 'engine bonus' for this particular airframe research. With 5 fully repaired research factories (size 30) and the engine pool bonus (that you won't have for the late year models for a loong time), I'm moving this plane forward at a 3:1 advancement: real time ratio. In other words, about 10% a day. You'll move that up to 3.6:1 with that 6th factory. You should be able to get the Ki-44-IIc into your inventory in November-December 1942 at that rate. [:)]

Lowpe -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 6:35:38 PM)
Strong fighter r&d that is important.[:)] Lack of Judy might play a role in CV clashes in late 1942. But sometimes there aren't any and depends upon your playstyle. With Scen 2 advantages you still should have the momentum into early 1943.

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 6:44:37 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lowpe Strong fighter r&d that is important.[:)] Lack of Judy might play a role in CV clashes in late 1942. But sometimes there aren't any and depends upon your playstyle. With Scen 2 advantages you still should have the momentum into early 1943. CV clashes with D4Y1/2, B6N1 and A6M5 in 1942? Sign me up! [8D]

BillBrown -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 6:57:11 PM)
Now I need to look at engines and enlarge some of the airframe factories.

mind_messing -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 7:33:12 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: mind_messing In short, bringing the Tojo forward by three months has much less impact than bringing any of the late-war fighters forward by the same time frame. That's a false choice, given the setup though. One can bring forward Ki-44-IIc 18 months, versus the late-war fighters 8-12 months. That's the relevant comparative. By investing 8 factories in the Ki-44 line, I can produce IIa in May 1942 and rotate the other 5 onto IIc research program (that are fully repaired and researching IIc in April 1942). I can then have IIa in service May 1942, IIc in production December 1942. Those 10 months (12/42-9/43) are the tipping point for the air war. Providing the best opportunity for your pilots to stave off the Allied hordes during that 10 months of the war are not to be underestimated. Also, I'm only talking about 8 factories here. I don't see this as an either / or. Do you really need 12/12/18 for the late-war models cited? Could you make do with 10/10/14? It's not all about barbell risk profiles: smooth out the production a little and give yourself some resiliency in 1943. Finally, not to curse Bill's game, but few PBEM games go the distance. Very few. Denying the 1943 window of competitiveness to be modestly more competitive in 1944-1945 is often passing up any mid-late planes altogether, as most games will have 'ended' before then anyways. I'm not really sold on the value of the Tojo C over the Tojo A to begin with (gets around but only swaps two 7.7mgs for two 12.7mgs), or the Tojo point blank, but I'm well aware I'm in a minority in that group. I personally feel that you get better value by extending the period of competitive air combat than you do by trying to maximize IJ advantage during that period. In other words, IJ is served better strategically by fighting a holding action through 1943 to get to the key airframes (specifically Ki84 and N1K1) that lets it compete into 1944. I take your point with games not getting to 1944 and beyond. I'd counter that by saying that very few (none immediately spring to mind) failed to get to 1944 because of Japan losing the air war. IJ players lose mostly via morale collapse caused by carrier clashes or massive invasions in rear areas.

BillBrown -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 7:33:22 PM)
another couple of questions. Do any of you produce some Nates? there are 254 engines in the pools and there will be some losses. Does anyone use the Pete? I have some airframe factories that I am not sure what to do with them. I have a Ki-21-Ic Sally, 2 x Nates, 2 Oscar-Ia, Ki-36 Ida, a Lilly factory( it is a 0(3) ) and a couple of Sonias. Can/should I put them into do not produce and wait until later to use them for aircraft that I research?

Lecivius -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 7:36:05 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown Now I need to look at engines and enlarge some of the airframe factories. Japanese pain. First go to the store to buy groceries, then cook the meal, then write the recipe [:D]

mind_messing -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 7:38:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown another couple of questions. Do any of you produce some Nates? there are 254 engines in the pools and there will be some losses. Does anyone use the Pete? Nope and nope. Both airframes already have superior replacements ready to go on Dec 7th (Oscar and Jake). I'd produce them and just let the spare engines go to waste.

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 8:05:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: mind_messing quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown another couple of questions. Do any of you produce some Nates? there are 254 engines in the pools and there will be some losses. Does anyone use the Pete? Nope and nope. Both airframes already have superior replacements ready to go on Dec 7th (Oscar and Jake). I'd produce them and just let the spare engines go to waste. Yup. Use those production factories elsewhere day 1.

Chickenboy -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 8:13:44 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown I have some airframe factories that I am not sure what to do with them. I have a Ki-21-Ic Sally, 2 x Nates, 2 Oscar-Ia, Ki-36 Ida, a Lilly factory( it is a 0(3) ) and a couple of Sonias. Can/should I put them into do not produce and wait until later to use them for aircraft that I research? What are your starting pools on those aircraft? I use the heck out of my Ki-21 IIa Sallies for the first 10-12 months out of the year. Very helpful bombing Allied dog airfields / troops in the open. The Ic is a serviceable stand-in (particularly in China) until the IIa supplants it (or the Helen if you're going that route). You'll need to produce some of these for a while until you have a suitable pool. Maybe keep the Oscar-Ia producing for a month or two and convert the other to Ic straight away. You'll need some of the -a, -b or -c line to replace frontline losses and to replace some of the frontline Nates ASAP. With Sc. 2, you have a modest pool of the -c so the up front need for replacements isn't quite as severe. Convert the Sonias ASAP. Convert the Idas ASAP. Don't build. Keep the units flying those crates (Manchuko) intact, as they're perfectly serviceable training rear echelon planes. But really nothing more.

Lowpe -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 8:58:31 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: mind_messing I'm not really sold on the value of the Tojo C over the Tojo A to begin with (gets around but only swaps two 7.7mgs for two 12.7mgs), or the Tojo point blank, but I'm well aware I'm in a minority in that group. Nah, I agree with you on this, too.

jdsrae -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 8:59:23 PM)
Looks like the great airframe debate has run out of puff while I was asleep. Is it time to open the xAK ship conversion can of worms yet?!

Lowpe -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 9:00:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown another couple of questions. Do any of you produce some Nates? there are 254 engines in the pools and there will be some losses. Does anyone use the Pete? I have some airframe factories that I am not sure what to do with them. I have a Ki-21-Ic Sally, 2 x Nates, 2 Oscar-Ia, Ki-36 Ida, a Lilly factory( it is a 0(3) ) and a couple of Sonias. Can/should I put them into do not produce and wait until later to use them for aircraft that I research? I don't make Nates. I do use Petes, and generally have one factory making around 5-10 depending if the Allies pursue night bombing early in the game. If the Allies pursue night bombing I usually will keep them around for the entire game. I like Sally bombers, probably more than Helens. Lilly make nice ASW planes, easy to find, easy to keep dedicated to that use.

BillBrown -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 9:41:58 PM)
i don't think I was't entirely clear. I have a Ki-21-Ic Sally 0(5) factory. This is an obsolete model and I have a Ki21-IIa 23(0) factory that I will keep in production. My question is about the 0(5) one. I really don't have anything I want to change it to now, I was asking about putting it in mothballs so to speak until a better air frame comes available. Same applies to a Liliy factory, a Sonia factory, an Oscar and a Topsy factory. These are either obsolete or redundant.

BillBrown -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 11:24:05 PM)
For what it is worth, turn 1 has been sent off. I dread what is going to happen when I find out I forgot a huge number of things.

mind_messing -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/18/2019 11:36:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown i don't think I was't entirely clear. I have a Ki-21-Ic Sally 0(5) factory. This is an obsolete model and I have a Ki21-IIa 23(0) factory that I will keep in production. My question is about the 0(5) one. I really don't have anything I want to change it to now, I was asking about putting it in mothballs so to speak until a better air frame comes available. Same applies to a Liliy factory, a Sonia factory, an Oscar and a Topsy factory. These are either obsolete or redundant. Perfectly fine to leave both the Lily and Sally factory idle (be sure to turn repairs off) till you have something worth changing it to. I would however suggest expanding the Lily factory and keeping it running, as a dive bomber version of the Lily arrives at the end of 1942. It's absolutely worthwhile to transfer all your existing Lily production to the dive bomber version, and any airframes you produce between now and the end of 1942 can go into upgrading the IJA 1E level bomber squadrons.

GetAssista -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/19/2019 1:54:06 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown Well, right or wrong I have made my R&D choices. 18 Frank factories is an overkill IMO. There are diminishing returns from additional R&D factories for the airframe. Simulations made me think that ~ >10 factories per model is hardly justified, it does not bring enough additional advances to be useful, compared to forgone opportunities. I would e.g. take 1 factory into every night fighter to make total 2. Or do Judy. Or both quote: ORIGINAL: BillBrown i don't think I was't entirely clear. I have a Ki-21-Ic Sally 0(5) factory. This is an obsolete model and I have a Ki21-IIa 23(0) factory that I will keep in production. My question is about the 0(5) one. I really don't have anything I want to change it to now, I was asking about putting it in mothballs so to speak until a better airframe comes available. Ki-21-Ic Sally uses up an obsolete Ha-5 engine pool in stock (check if your scenario is the same) and is a nice 2E bomber on par with the usual II Sally. No reason to not produce it until the engine runs out. You don't need a lot of transports early. B5N1 Kate is another no brainer to produce early from the obsolete engine pool instead of the marginally better B5N2, hoarding those Ha-35 for the engine bonus.

BillBrown -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/19/2019 1:59:54 AM)
You may be right GA, but it is done now. I have been thinking that if I play this scenario again as Japan I will do the R&D a bit differently.

larryfulkerson -> RE: Bill Brings Banzai (6/19/2019 2:07:16 AM)
Hey Bill: Will you do me a huge favor and save a copy of your game and zip it up and post it on this thread. I'm trying to learn how to play this mongster as the Jap player and I would really love to be able to take a look around and see what you're doing and compare it to what I usually do in that situation and learn how to do things in a better way. To be a better opponent for somebody. Thanks ahead of time. [image]local://upfiles/16287/94885FFA718A4490BCFDC4859F0C31A3.jpg[/image]

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