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Shalkai -> RE: Turn 6 - 1st PvP+1st AAR, Shalkai (Axis) vs GamerDad (Soviet), v1.12.0x (12/26/2019 4:20:40 PM)
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Status checks after combat is complete take up a whole evening.
Red Air Force plane counts: 1500+ 40 mi south of Leningrad. 500 east of VyshVolo. 600 near Moscow, 1000 Vyazma-Bryansk. 300 Gomel. 850 Kiev.
Moscow and Leningrad each have about a quarter of the Sov air forces so more flaks get sent that way. I try some airfield attacks but results are mixed. 8 Airfield attacks cost 7 ftr and 13 bmr, with Soviet losses of 62 ftr and 17 bmr. 4:1 loss ratio isn’t that great. German total air losses are around 70 this turn (with ~10 more minor ally planes lost), so still under new production totals. I also do a decent number of ground attacks to use up some (~20%) of air miles, cause some attrition, and lure up enemy fighters. I make sure minor allies do this too.
I spend some time assigning SUs and locking corps HQs once I’m happy with them. All PzK and PzA, plus some InfK are done for now. There are still things I need to fix, like leg Flak and PzJg units attached to PzK HQs, but I’m not going to spend AP to do that. I’ll do a grand SU reorg during mud turns. The super-heavy guns SU is assigned to 11th Army for use at Odessa, and SUs are locked in that army.
One HQBU done for 39 PzK, currently resting in VeliLuki. Supply is less horrible on the way to Rzhev so there’s probably enough reach for a good advance or small pocket next turn. Final tidy work done - DtHq list is short; just 3 inf divisions not in HQ radius (swamp, whatcanyado?)
I’ve got ten AP unused, so I spend two of them and replace my cheapest cruddy InfK commander.
End of turn to-do: assign St.KG51, and 7.(H)/12 Fi156 back to units[done]. I could do a couple more bmr units if needed, but they are low on exp so can stay in reserve and train another turn or two.
20 hexes to Moscow, 10 to Osinovets.
Total losses at end of Axis Turn 6: Axis 77828 men, 893 gun, 706 afv, 62 spac. Soviet 1343378 men, 20095 gun, 8688 afv, 2550 spac
Net loss of about 1600 vehicles this turn: 2750 lost, 1150 captured.
Air losses: Axis 81 (this turn), 309 Total. Soviet 423 (this turn), 6458 Total. Axis losses higher, but still under new production in any type.
Destroyed units: 16 this turn, 2 TankDiv, 2 RifleDiv, 1RifleBrig, 1SecRgt were the on-map losses.
OOB shows Germany at 3.37M manpower, Soviet at 3.74M
Errors and risks:
Possible error in my attacks on heavily fortified Odessa. I think multiple attacks are more efficient at reducing fort levels? Not sure if I had enough CV available to get three good attacks in last turn. I should next turn, and another German InfK of reinforcements is moving up and could come assist as well. [see Odessa picture above]
Risk - my air units are far forward, so the AGN and AGC bases might be vulnerable to airfield attacks. I’ve taken steps to mitigate this, with extra flak units added to the Fliegerkorps HQ units (most have three now). About six Bf109 units withdraw in two turns so I’m preparing for that as well, with a fighter unit transfer north planned for next turn.
Risk - units at 20+hexes from rail get just a dribble of supplies, so they are potentially vulnerable to counterattacks. Not much of a worry since I believe Gamerdad has (so far) not done a single ground attack this whole game. Stalin must be on holiday in the Crimea.
Risk - I committed 2nd Army to attack east of the Volkhov, instead of running it north so the veteran units of 18th Army could concentrate. One panzer is awful far from supply, too. I think these were still the right decisions. This gets both armies poised to attack next turn, rather than wasting time shuffling. [see Leningrad picture above]
Analysis and plans:
I noted possible risks in the air war just above, but my concerns are not too great. My overabundance of recon means I have a good picture of his air unit deployment. It seems decent but I note some weaknesses. For one, his VVS units are not set up well to do partisan supplies. I’ve been picking on his fighters and recon units when I can, and the Luftwaffe should have the upper hand just about everywhere til the late fall withdrawals. At this point, I think Soviet plane losses just about equal their current OOB, so I’ve destroyed half their air force. That’s pretty good. Once I get some Stuka units upgraded to the longer-ranged Ju87D, I’ll try to keep pressure on his MiG, Yak, and IL2 units when I can.
The stronger fort rules in 12.02 are definitely noticeable. There won’t be much negative impact if it takes an extra turn or two to take Odessa - the besieging forces are in much better supply there than they would be marching forward, and my advance schedule is effectively delayed anyway by one or two whole turns in southern Ukraine because of the 25 hex isolation rule/bug. When the Rumanian units are finally free to move up, they will be going through already controlled territory so will make it up to the lower Dnepr a turn faster.
In the northern Ukraine, I hope to take Kiev with infantry over the next couple turns, and threaten a river assault crossing near there by showing some panzers. Hopefully I can keep GamerDad focused on heavily defending that stretch, while I actually prepare 1st PzG to do the real assault farther south. The middle Dnepr around Kiev is vulnerable to flanking attacks (as historically shown in the real Barbarossa), and I expect Soviet forces to quickly withdraw once I get going.
It’s probably pretty clear by now that my normal operational style is to go around, not through, the enemy. Each army group is eyeing the main defense line and hopefully I’ll be able to attack weaknesses in each theater during the next two turns.
Panzers are all set to pocket some Reds NE of Smolensk, if any stay within range. My units are advancing as fast as supply allows, basically, so the light Soviet losses are not too concerning. Once supply catches up to the Soviet line I should be able to get Stalin’s losses back up to 200k+ per turn.
The push on Leningrad will be interesting the next two turns. With a PzK to lead them, 2nd Army should advance well for at least one turn, probably two. I carefully kept any of the new army’s units from being adjacent to the front line so the Soviets might not even notice this turn that there are a dozen infantry divisions poised to barrel into the weakest part of their whole line. Once they do notice, I expect prompt withdrawal from the Luga line to shore up the Tikhvin area.
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Turn 7 to-do: - transfer another fighter to AGN air group. Use Jagd/LG2 from 19th LW down south, shuffle transfers north. Turn down escort on ground and airfield attack.
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