RE: Italy Oil (Full Version)

All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> WarPlan



Message


aspqrz02 -> RE: Italy Oil (12/31/2019 11:38:25 AM)

Actually I believe it was mentioned somewhere in a previous thread by Alvaro that the conquering player gets 1/3 of a conquered country's OIL reserves.

Phil McGregor




aspqrz02 -> RE: Italy Oil (12/31/2019 12:06:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: battlevonwar
At the outbreak of the war, Germany’s stockpiles of fuel consisted of a total of 15 million barrels. The campaigns in Norway, Holland, Belgium, and France added another 5 million barrels in booty, and imports from the Soviet Union accounted for 4 million barrels in 1940 and 1.6 million barrels in the first half of 1941. Yet a High Command study in May of 1941 noted that with monthly military requirements for 7.25 million barrels and imports and home production of only 5.35 million barrels, German stocks would be exhausted by August 1941. The 26 percent shortfall could only be made up with petroleum from Russia.

Dire situation, as Germany Italy would get "zero" oil from me...


15 million bbl is ~2.15 million metric tons (~7 bbl = 1 metric ton). That's 364 OIL. Stockpile, not per turn.

The booty from Norway, the Low Countries and France (5 million bbl) is therefore ~120 OIL. Again, a one off boost, not per turn.

Russia provides 4 million bbl, so about 26 OIL per turn.

Military requirements of 7.25 million bbl per month (i.e. two game turns) is therefore ~24/25 OIL for each of those turns.

Of course, that's for MAY 1940 ... I'm 100% sure that the pre-Barbarossa estimates of fuel use were WAY off. IIRC the actual fuel consumption figures were at least DOUBLE (possibly much more) ... so 48/50 OIL per turn.

Of course, only 40% of the available reserves in 1941 were allocated to Barbarossa ... and that was evidently only 500,000 tons or ~85 OIL, so maybe the equal to 3 turns (6 weeks) from stockpiles based on planning projections ... or 1-2 weeks of actual consumption.

Phil McGregor





battlevonwar -> RE: Italy Oil (12/31/2019 1:01:40 PM)

Phil,

been through about 3-4 Novels on Operational Levels of Barbarossa between 2014 and 2019. Rarely fuel is mentioned as the main issue but more a lack of clear cut goals, spare parts, Morale is even a bigger issue. Many of the units for instance that prepared for Operation Typhoon weren't full strength anymore and lacked much of their pre-Barbarossa Strength. Many Mechanized units would probably cease to be Panzer Korps Divisions and more skeletons of such... Perhaps why fuel was less important?





tigercub -> RE: Italy Oil (12/31/2019 1:27:36 PM)

happy new year




tigercub -> RE: Italy Oil (12/31/2019 1:39:28 PM)

Hitler wanted to go south for the Oil from the start...was talked out of it, Oil was the biggest problem the Axis had and was the reason for the lose of the war in Russia by 1942 the Russian people were staving and only just held on, food way more than combat losses was bringing Russia close to its knee's one study i have been looking at.

Tigercub




aspqrz02 -> RE: Italy Oil (12/31/2019 10:02:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tigercub
Hitler wanted to go south for the Oil from the start...was talked out of it, Oil was the biggest problem the Axis had and was the reason for the lose of the war in Russia by 1942 the Russian people were staving and only just held on, food way more than combat losses was bringing Russia close to its knee's one study i have been looking at.


Hitler wanted so many things. He was never, ever, clear on the details of what he wanted, however, and doesn't seem to have ever been able to settle on any coherent idea of his aims ... have you ever tried to read Mein Kampf or the even more turgid 'Second Book'? If you can get anything coherent out of either you're better than pretty much anyone else, ever.

The US War Department Pamphlet I gave the link to in another thread just last night is also interesting in its lack of any specific and coherent goals beyond 'take all of European Russia' ... and the initial primary (insofar as Hitler articulated them) aims were to take the Industrial and Bread Basket areas west of the Volga.

Thereafter he dithered. Repeatedly.

Even if he had concentrated on the OIL in the Caucasus, the evidence is disastrously clear ... he would have gotten diddly squat.

1) The Russians destroyed any wells and refineries before the Germans could capture them.

2) The Germans had exactly ONE 'Technical Oil Brigade' whose capacity for repairing such and getting them back into production was such that it managed, IIRC, to get one or two wells back into production and up to a massive 200 bbl or so a day before they were thrown out.

At that rate they would have taken a decade or more to get the fields back into production. Great in the long run BUT they wouldn't benefit in the short term, which is when they needed the oil.

3) German Tanker Car capacity for moving Oil by rail was short of what was needed merely to move POL around for their existing requirements. This was not solvable during the war as the steel needed to produce more tanker cars would have had to have been diverted from producing oh so unimportant things such as planes for the Luftwaffe (aerial defence of the homeland as well as tactical use) and tanks, trucks and artillery for the Heer (taking on the rest of Russia) ... and, NO, the resources captured in European Russia did NOT change the shortage materially. The Germans were short of tanker cars for the ENTIRE WAR.

(I could go into chapter and verse as to why, but it boils down to the fact that they started the war in a deep hole trying to dig their way out the supposedly cheap way of stealing goodies they needed... and found out the hard way that all they were doing was digging the hole deeper because the costs of stealing those goodies was far greater than actual peaceful trading)

4) The Russian rail net was ****ed. Wrong gauge. Worse, not enough coaling, watering and, more importantly, repair and maintenance facilities ... and German planning had not taken into account the fact of the latter ... and that all of the equipment needed for the latter was special order stuff that had a long lead time to manufacture AND also took steel and capacity from the oh so unimportant aircraft for the Luftwaffe and Tanks, Trucks and Artillery for the Heer.

So theoretical capacity was never reached.

5) Nope. Can't ship it across the Black Sea either. No indigenous merchant marine with the needed tanker capacity ... heck, no indigenous merchant marine with the needed ship capacity if you tried to ship it in 44 gallon drums. No shipyards to manufacture such ... and, yes, you guessed it, to attempt to do so would have taken steel from the unimportant Luftwaffe and Heer requirements.

In any case, none of the Russian Black Sea ports had the physical wharf and pumping capacity to handle the number of tankers or other merchantmen that would have been required even if they HAD existed. Expanding Port Capacity would have, again, taken steel from the unimportant Luftwaffe and Heer needs.

Likewise, the Romanian and Bulgarian ports didn't have the physical wharfage and pumping capacity.

Then it gets worse, even assuming you get any oil across the Black Sea the Romanians were ALREADY at capacity for their Ploesti oil being shipped back to Germany ... in fact, they couldn't send all they produced because their RR links and Barge capacity on the Danube were inadequate. The Germans, from memory, were trying during the war to run a pipeline from southern Germany down to Romania and, to a limited extent, managed a bit ... but the pipeline head never went far enough to solve the problem. To do so would have diverted high pressure extruded pipe (expensive in terms of Reichsmarks, but more so in terms of production facilities and steel needed by the oh so unimportant Luftwaffe and Heer) was also needed to repair ongoing bombing damage to the German Oil refineries and Synthetic Oil plants and would have had to have been diverted from that.

Look, I know you'll just pooh pooh all this and claim you're a better planner than Hitler ... but these were real world constraints that even the General Staff and, later, Speer simply COULD. NOT. OVERCOME. Hitler may have been clueless, but neither the General Staff Planners nor Speer were ... they tried their hardest to make bricks without straw ... and found out the hard way you can't.

So I suppose it boils down to how much of a fantasy game you wish WarPlan to be?

Phil McGregor




aspqrz02 -> RE: Italy Oil (12/31/2019 10:09:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: battlevonwar
Phil,

been through about 3-4 Novels on Operational Levels of Barbarossa between 2014 and 2019. Rarely fuel is mentioned as the main issue but more a lack of clear cut goals, spare parts, Morale is even a bigger issue. Many of the units for instance that prepared for Operation Typhoon weren't full strength anymore and lacked much of their pre-Barbarossa Strength. Many Mechanized units would probably cease to be Panzer Korps Divisions and more skeletons of such... Perhaps why fuel was less important?


They didn't mention it because they managed to plan around it. As I noted, the German Armed Forces were making operational move/deploy plans directly based on a lack of POL from late 41/early 42 in Barbarossa ... and thence to the end of the war ... they were good planners, and found ways to maximise their use of an increasingly inadequate resource, but it was always a planning issue.

Now, yes, a lot of this wasn't understood until quite recently, or, perhaps more accurately, WAS understood but wasn't widely disseminated beyond very specialised military and economic historical circles. It still hasn't penetrated into more widely accessible historical material even from quite reputable historians YET.

However, if you drill down into specialised material and even some of the more generalist works from the last decade or so you'll find it is coming more and more to light, though you may have to read between the lines.

Phil McGregor




tigercub -> RE: Italy Oil (1/1/2020 3:49:52 AM)

Phil thanks i have read all you are saying and agree for the most part i have read this somewhere before recently. anyway the food study was interesting it also talked about if Germany took the oil fields even if it could not use them or cut them off so the Russians could not use them this could have spelt the end for the Russians or perhaps the leadership.
like most people writing history after the fact its all hearsay.

Tigercub




Franciscus -> RE: Italy Oil (1/1/2020 11:33:07 AM)

Interesting discussion, thanks

DC: Barbarossa depicts very well IMHO pretty much all this. The lack of oil; the planning difficulties; the various conflicting needs and personalities involved in Germany’s high command.

Regards




Page: <<   < prev  1 [2]

Valid CSS!




Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI
1.453125