RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 12:22:11 AM)

This reputable website seems to have had a massive hiccup....

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C3DB4E2CB39A45799564E8B5873BF153.jpg[/image]



RangerJoe -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 12:38:41 AM)

I think that wipes out all of the active cases in the world, does it not?



Lobster -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 1:16:21 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pvt_Grunt


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

OMG...the looting has started. [:D] https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-51867525/christmas-island-a-giant-robber-crab-stole-my-camera

And the gang wars! https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news/story/coronavirus-monkeys-from-rival-gangs-fight-over-food-in-thailand-viral-video-1655094-2020-03-13


I did NOT see that coming! [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 1:23:35 AM)

Yup. [:)]

Man, that would be something!


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I think that wipes out all of the active cases in the world, does it not?




z1812 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:22:34 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

This thread was informative and interesting before becoming bogged down in a discussion about relative death percentages that really leads nowhere. Sadly authorities will eventually be able fix a proper rate.

In the meantime we should continue in the spirit of the conversation before the percentage debate started. Here is an update focused on Canada and the World.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-covid19-march-15-canada-world-1.5498348


warspite1

The thread remains informative and interesting. The mortality rate is pretty key. I don't see how a few people discussing this - with strongly held views on either side - as an adjunct (depending on your view) to the topic is a cause for you to react like that. Its a discussion forum. If you want to ignore that element of the thread, just ignore it.



I don't find "Yes it is", "No it isn't", very informative.

You are entitled to your point of view as I am entitled to mine. Feel free to ignore my posts if you don't like them.
warspite1

... and if you read the posts that you are critical of then you would know that that Yes or No (or heads or tails in Curtis Lemay's example) is exactly what I am NOT saying. This isn't bloody heads or tails on a coin toss - these are human beings and this is serious. If people want to play the shock jock, number cruncher, then they can - but any helpful, intelligent analysis needs to take into account the detail re the current active cases. Without that the 'mortality rate' is nothing of the sort - its just a number with no real meaning or context - and for many of the reasons that have come out as a result of this debate, they are massively skewed.


Here is an interesting article regarding the above. A quote from the article is below as well as a link to the full article.

"That includes members of Congress. On Wednesday, they asked Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what was going on. He urged them not to get so fixated on the fatality rate, emphasizing that scientists still have a lot to learn about it."

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-07/why-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-keeps-changing



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 6:50:46 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

This thread was informative and interesting before becoming bogged down in a discussion about relative death percentages that really leads nowhere. Sadly authorities will eventually be able fix a proper rate.

In the meantime we should continue in the spirit of the conversation before the percentage debate started. Here is an update focused on Canada and the World.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-covid19-march-15-canada-world-1.5498348


warspite1

The thread remains informative and interesting. The mortality rate is pretty key. I don't see how a few people discussing this - with strongly held views on either side - as an adjunct (depending on your view) to the topic is a cause for you to react like that. Its a discussion forum. If you want to ignore that element of the thread, just ignore it.



I don't find "Yes it is", "No it isn't", very informative.

You are entitled to your point of view as I am entitled to mine. Feel free to ignore my posts if you don't like them.
warspite1

... and if you read the posts that you are critical of then you would know that that Yes or No (or heads or tails in Curtis Lemay's example) is exactly what I am NOT saying. This isn't bloody heads or tails on a coin toss - these are human beings and this is serious. If people want to play the shock jock, number cruncher, then they can - but any helpful, intelligent analysis needs to take into account the detail re the current active cases. Without that the 'mortality rate' is nothing of the sort - its just a number with no real meaning or context - and for many of the reasons that have come out as a result of this debate, they are massively skewed.


Here is an interesting article regarding the above. A quote from the article is below as well as a link to the full article.

"That includes members of Congress. On Wednesday, they asked Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what was going on. He urged them not to get so fixated on the fatality rate, emphasizing that scientists still have a lot to learn about it."

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-07/why-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-keeps-changing

warspite1

Thanks for posting. I understand the need for people to want to know as much as possible, to be informed and as knowledgeable as they can be on something like this. Its what we humans do. But we need to be responsible. We don't know where this thing will take us to and where it will end, and so scary, one off, out of context, headline grabbing % without the benefit of all the data is just so damn irresponsible.



z1812 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 12:38:29 PM)

quote:

warspite1

Thanks for posting. I understand the need for people to want to know as much as possible, to be informed and as knowledgeable as they can be on something like this. Its what we humans do. But we need to be responsible. We don't know where this thing will take us to and where it will end, and so scary, one off, out of context, headline grabbing % without the benefit of all the data is just so damn irresponsible.



Agreed. My great worry is those who are not taking this seriously. I am surprised by some I know who have returned from abroad and are not self isolating, and others who have Flu like symptoms and are also not self isolating.

Here is another article concerning fatality rates.

https://www.realclearscience.com/quick_and_clear_science/2020/03/16/covid-19s_death_rate_why_it_can_be_as_high_as_12_or_as_low_as_025.html



Zap -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 1:22:59 PM)

I would be interested to know the percentage of death among people over sixty, since I'm one of those. That is of death from the corona virus. since its been said this virus mostly claims their lives.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 1:27:21 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812
My great worry is those who are not taking this seriously.


Now the hurricane is knocking on everyone's door. It cannot and will not be ignored anymore. I'm happy I started following certain sources one month ago. They correctly described the situation (in China, Italy and now [put your country here]). A slow motion train wreck and they were not paying attention.

Now I want to disconnect aka don't get too overexposed to the flow of [bad] news.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 1:38:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap

I would be interested to know the percentage of death among people over sixty, since I'm one of those. That is of death from the corona virus. since its been said this virus mostly claims their lives.


Worst case scenario, Italy's numbers say iirc circa 10% and for those over 80 20%. Don't think about it. You may be a victim but you gain what exactly with this info? Anxiety and stress. You'll get nowhere. Stay safe if you can, simple.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 1:47:22 PM)

Here, South Korea and Italy (google translator is your friend [;)])

re Italy my memory failed 60-69: 3%

[image]local://upfiles/11562/593B2416C0B14B32AF76EADB356CC956.jpg[/image]



UP844 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:10:16 PM)

quote:

Italy (google translator is your friend )


A native Italian translator is better [:D]

Column heading

Soggetti di sesso maschile = Male subjects

Soggetti di sesso femminile = Female subjects

Casi totali = Total cases

Classe di età = Age class

----------------------

Male/Female columns

N. Casi = Number of cases

% Casi per sesso = % Cases by gender

N. Deceduti = Nr. of deceased

% Deceduti per sesso = % deceased by gender

% Letalità = % Lethality

------------------------------

Age class column

N. Casi = Number of cases

% Casi per classe di età = % Cases by class age

N. Deceduti = Nr. of deceased

% Deceduti per classe di età = % deceased by class age

% Letalità = % Lethality



z1812 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:20:18 PM)

There are so many variables at work under the statistical " blanket ". Age, state of health, where you live, access to health care, Family support or lack thereof, financial situation.......and so on.

Many people I know live in apartments or condos. Everyday upon entering or leaving their building they must face the uncertainty of who they may meet on the elevator...................unless they are fit enough to use the stairs.

https://quillette.com/ There are 6 corona virus articles/reports on their home page.



Canoerebel -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:33:22 PM)

The pandemic is essentially over in China, South Korea, and probably Japan.

Italy is next in terms of "riding the bell-shaped curve." Italy is far up the "discouraging side" of the bell. How long will that increase continue or is it about to begin a downswing. We don't know yet. Any day could bring a change. But every day the number increases is frightening. (Iran would offer a parallel to Italy, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about the reliability of the numbers coming from Iran.)

Spain (and probably France) are now on the upswing, following that discouraging upward trend on the bell-shaped curve. How Italy ultimately fares will help us know how long the bad news will continue in these two countries. Germany and UK might or might not have similar experiences - at the moment, mortality in those two countries is significantly lower.

Since Italy has imposed strong countermeasures, followed soon thereafter by most European countries, will that have a dampening effect on the pandemic there? We'll see. It should be noted that Italy has already suffered far more than South Korea.

Thanks to our European "cousins," the USA had the benefit of seeing things develop in Italy, et. al. and to begin taking strong countermeasures relatively early in the ride on that bell-shaped curve. Here, we'll be on the upswing for quite some time but possibly not as steeply nor as long as we would have had Europe not been a week or 10 days ahead of us.

Right now, the news is an unending cycle of calamity or despair, and with some reason. But some of the underlying numbers look fairly encouraging (South Korea, for instance). If Italy turns in the next week - and I think it probably will - the news cycles will begin to offer some encouraging words. As other countries come to grips with the pandemic and begin to report South Korea-type bell-shaped-curve numbers, a sense of optimism will return.

The economic impact is going to be huge, but the optimism/euphoria when the news turns good and when things begin to return to normal will help a bit.

I'll be surprised if Europe and the USA don't begin the "hey, are things turning now? in a week or two. Maybe even this week. But I'm no prophet, which is why I don't bet on sporting events or other games of chance.



Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:33:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

... He urged them not to get so fixated on the fatality rate, emphasizing that scientists still have a lot to learn about it."


That's absurd. The mortality rate determines our behavior. There is a big difference between taking a few precautions and bunkering yourself in your basement. We have to have the best estimate of mortality NOW.



sPzAbt653 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:35:04 PM)

Wall Street closed.

One of my local Malls has closed [except for Restaurants].

The CDC has released guidelines for the next EIGHT WEEKS.

At this rate, everything will be closed in a few weeks, and we all will be force-quarantined for one month or more.



Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:36:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Thanks for posting. I understand the need for people to want to know as much as possible, to be informed and as knowledgeable as they can be on something like this. Its what we humans do. But we need to be responsible. We don't know where this thing will take us to and where it will end, and so scary, one off, out of context, headline grabbing % without the benefit of all the data is just so damn irresponsible.


One of us is being irresponsible. That's for sure. If the rate is above 7% and someone tells everyone to look the other way, he's going to have a lot to answer for.



Canoerebel -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:45:02 PM)

The rate isn't above 7%, unless locally as in a particular nursing home.

The rate is going to end up at 3% or less, probably a good bit less.



MrsWargamer -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 2:53:35 PM)

I'm hoping this is a great big deal of nothing myself. Who wouldn't?

I live in a small town. I live in an apartment reached up a lot of stairs to a 3rd floor attic where I basically encounter nobody.
I routinely have a month of food. 2 if I just don't feel like eating much.
Unfortunately, I've been living on disability longer than I care to, but it means I don't have to actually be anywhere.
So essentially, I'm sitting here, working on models, when not role gaming with my teddy bears (none of my toys wants to play my wargames against me sadly).
But Canada is shutting down rather quickly. There's nowhere to go, even if I felt like it. And it wouldn't be wise regardless.

I'm worried that this is going to have quite the mangled effect on the economy. No money being made, or earned.
Although, right at this moment, the grocery store I shop at has the usual parking lot of customers. No panic though.

I'm just glad I don't actually need to be anywhere.
I am a bit too close to 60.
I have no investments, I have no retirement fund. But I also have no debts or bills beyond rent.
I'm used to living on a sum of funds that most would consider technically impossible. You'd need to increase my pension before I could reach the poverty line eh. Not sure how I get by to be honest.

I'm hoping this all doesn't matter shortly. It's my birthday this month :) And I'm looking forward to going bike riding beginning of May.

I'm also hoping you all is still here this time next year.



Zap -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 3:02:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap

I would be interested to know the percentage of death among people over sixty, since I'm one of those. That is of death from the corona virus. since its been said this virus mostly claims their lives.


Worst case scenario, Italy's numbers say iirc circa 10% and for those over 80 20%. Don't think about it. You may be a victim but you gain what exactly with this info? Anxiety and stress. You'll get nowhere. Stay safe if you can, simple.



No gain just info for me. since I transport train crews to different states (close contact) I guess i like to know.



Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 3:23:24 PM)

New world-wide figures for today:

Total cases: 171961
Recovered: 77773
Deaths: 6654
(Wikipedia)

That gives 6654 / (6654 + 77773) = 7.9% mortality.

That's up from 7.1 yesterday.



z1812 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 5:05:41 PM)

Here is another comprehensive article. About a quarter of the way down the page they discuss death rates.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus



Zovs -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 5:06:33 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

New world-wide figures for today:

Total cases: 171961
Recovered: 77773
Deaths: 6654
(Wikipedia)

That gives 6654 / (6654 + 77773) = 7.9% mortality.

That's up from 7.1 yesterday.




Bob (aka "Curtis Lemay") all your doing is adding to the mass hysteria and spreading panic with incorrect mortality rates.

The actual percent morality rate is 3.8 and maybe 3.9 at the highest.

My speculation is that 90% of these are 80 and over with preexisting conditions.

This webs has what appears to be more updated numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And based on the correct math it's only 3.8% morality rate.

This site has some useful data.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Here is some spreadsheet data:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data




loki100 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 5:19:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

New world-wide figures for today:

Total cases: 171961
Recovered: 77773
Deaths: 6654
(Wikipedia)

That gives 6654 / (6654 + 77773) = 7.9% mortality.

That's up from 7.1 yesterday.


No its not -as has been explained to you many times.

What you have is the known deaths from the virus (there may be others not categorised) and the known recoveries from it (and we know full well that is an underestimate given the failure of several countries to put in place proper testing). We don't know what is a 'recovery' as we have no idea if reinfection is likely.

It is not, for the umpteenth time, a mortality measure that anyone other than you would use (and that is making the heroic assumption that both figures are complete)



Gray Fox -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 6:07:45 PM)

And now for something completely different...

Merkel lists all businesses that will be closed in Germany, to include places of prostitution and bordellos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JeP6XChhoE

At 3:51.



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/16/2020 6:08:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Thanks for posting. I understand the need for people to want to know as much as possible, to be informed and as knowledgeable as they can be on something like this. Its what we humans do. But we need to be responsible. We don't know where this thing will take us to and where it will end, and so scary, one off, out of context, headline grabbing % without the benefit of all the data is just so damn irresponsible.


One of us is being irresponsible. That's for sure. If the rate is above 7% and someone tells everyone to look the other way, he's going to have a lot to answer for.
warspite1

I am genuinely shocked at your inability to understand this. So if this conversation was being had a few days ago about the US situation, you would be proudly quoting 56% death rate because you believe in the sanctity of the maths???? But you don't think your methodology is flawed?

But the most troubling aspect of what you said above is that I (or presumably anyone that can see your methodology is bunkum) are apparently going to have a lot to answer for if the mortality proves to be 7%. Why? I haven't said its not going to be. I haven't made out I'm suddenly some world expert on pandemics (although to be fair nor have you, you are too busy congratulating yourself on being able to do a bogus % calculation). I don't know where this will end. I don't say your 7% figure is wrong because its impossible or is not going to happen (although based on current numbers it looks nothing like that). I say your 7% figure is irresponsible because its based on skewed and selective data and completely ignores a massively important variable. You are simply taking two numbers in isolation to create a wholly artificial percentage rate.

Just because I don't buy in to your deeply flawed, alarmist calculation, doesn't mean this is not frightening enough. I am not espousing any alternate view other than, this is serious and we are in an unknown and very worrying situation - both medically and economically. So what exactly do 'I have to answer for?' and to whom?



Orm -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 6:28:51 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

My speculation is that 90% of these are 80 and over with preexisting conditions.


I think pre-existing conditions are used nefariously. They make it sound as the infected would have died soon anyway. I bet that there are few above the age of 70 that doesn't have any of the so called pre-existing conditions. And plenty of younger people. Diabetes, for example, is one of them and there are some 400+ million people who has that disease. And if you manage diabetes correctly you might die earlier than you might have without the disease, but most have a lot of years to live fairly normal lives. And yet they make it sound as if they would have died within a year anyway.



sPzAbt653 -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 8:12:11 PM)

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is shutting down all bars, restaurants, movie theaters, and gyms in the state, effective 5 p.m. today. All gatherings of more than 50 people are banned as well, matching the new CDC recommendations about limiting events with 50 or more people for the next eight weeks. The new ruling comes just days after Hogan closed all Maryland public schools, and a day after he ordered the closures of all casinos, racetracks, and off-track betting parlors.

Now they've gone too far ... us drunks need the bars to share our miseries. It's time to march folks, we need to take back our society from the Closure-Virus!

On a similar note, these statistics arguments are ruining this thread. This used to be a place for information, now we have page after page of mindless prima-dona dick wagging. Move it to another thread guys!



Lobster -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 8:12:45 PM)

Stupidity and irresponsibility kill just as many.

A woman comes back from the U.K. sick. She attends a Special Olympics event, a VFW event, goes shopping, visits friends and goes to a restaurant. All the while endangering people with the Covid-19 virus she's carrying.

Another second woman that the first one has infected goes to two Big East tournament games while contagious putting 36,000 people at risk. Then she goes bar hopping after each game visiting seven or eight bars.

A third woman picks up the virus who knows where and goes to work sick. She works at Walmart and is one of those people who works at different stores, six in total on six differnt days. So everyone in those six Walmarts and the people at a supermarket she visited are also put at risk.

All three of these people were sick but didn't think they were so sick they had to stay home even after knowing they should stay home if they were sick. Stupid irresponsible people.



warspite1 -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/16/2020 9:03:57 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

On a similar note, these statistics arguments are ruining this thread. This used to be a place for information, now we have page after page of mindless prima-dona dick wagging. Move it to another thread guys!
warspite1

And there's some mindless prima-donna dick wagging right there.

If you don't want to read it, don't read it. Or do you expect Curtis Lemay's shock-jock nonsense to go posted unchecked? Yeah that would bring the usefulness of the thread right down wouldn't it?



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