RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (Full Version)

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Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 2:54:20 PM)

I'm switching to graphical. Today's worldwide figures (Wikipedia):

[image]local://upfiles/14086/2082BF5B91F24367BC40740885D958A9.jpg[/image]



Zorch -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 2:58:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

I'm at serious risk of finishing all my models if something doesn't change soon :)

This week it has been an M3 Grant, Pz IIIl, Tiger mid prod, King Tiger (P) turret, flakpz IV mobelwagen, quad gun tractor, and currently working on a birdcage Corsair and an FW 190 F8/9 as well as a 747 and an AN 225 (it's bloody big).

I might even get around to playing a wargame !!

Currently blaring Armin van Buuren from YouTube to feel like I'm actually at a social event I'm not really convinced.

Try the History Guy on YouTube - he'll keep you busy for days. [;)]



RangerJoe -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 3:00:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

I'm at serious risk of finishing all my models if something doesn't change soon :)

This week it has been an M3 Grant, Pz IIIl, Tiger mid prod, King Tiger (P) turret, flakpz IV mobelwagen, quad gun tractor, and currently working on a birdcage Corsair and an FW 190 F8/9 as well as a 747 and an AN 225 (it's bloody big).

I might even get around to playing a wargame !!

Currently blaring Armin van Buuren from YouTube to feel like I'm actually at a social event I'm not really convinced.


If they are all the same scale, are you going to build a diorama? If so, please post a picture of it.



RangerJoe -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 3:03:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm switching to graphical. Today's worldwide figures (Wikipedia):

[image]local://upfiles/14086/2082BF5B91F24367BC40740885D958A9.jpg[/image]


Did you know that posting misleading information artificially showing things are worse leads to panic? The panic can be worse than the threat? This can lead to hoarding and price gouging? That is one reason why people do present misleading information.



MrsWargamer -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 3:25:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

I'm at serious risk of finishing all my models if something doesn't change soon :)

This week it has been an M3 Grant, Pz IIIl, Tiger mid prod, King Tiger (P) turret, flakpz IV mobelwagen, quad gun tractor, and currently working on a birdcage Corsair and an FW 190 F8/9 as well as a 747 and an AN 225 (it's bloody big).

I might even get around to playing a wargame !!

Currently blaring Armin van Buuren from YouTube to feel like I'm actually at a social event I'm not really convinced.


If they are all the same scale, are you going to build a diorama? If so, please post a picture of it.


I don't routinely do dioramas (kills too much shelf). Most of my collection sits on shelves like it was a parking lot :)

I'll see if I can generate some pictures.



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 3:41:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Did you know that posting misleading information artificially showing things are worse leads to panic? The panic can be worse than the threat? This can lead to hoarding and price gouging? That is one reason why people do present misleading information.


Opinions are like belly buttons. Everyone has one. [:D]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-current-fatalities-compared-to-cases-2020-3

https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And those are just the ones I bothered to look at. I've seen numbers that are all over the place from 1% to 12% for total fatalities when all is said and that from the people who do the science, not people telling everyone their opinion is the right one and anyone else is stupid. You will never know until it's over. If you think otherwise you are delusional.

If you are concerned about yourself or family numbers ignore global numbers and just worry about local. The global numbers are of no help to you.

The state I live in has 23 cases and no deaths. Mostly concentrated in a large metro area.



loki100 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 3:49:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm switching to graphical. Today's worldwide figures (Wikipedia):

..


I'm impressed, you can divide figures that have no relation to each other ... and show the results in a graph

chapeaux



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 3:51:03 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm switching to graphical. Today's worldwide figures (Wikipedia):

..


I'm impressed, you can divide figures that have no relation to each other ... and show the results in a graph

chapeaux


I'm impressed too. Some people can spout the same tripe over and over like a school yard bully. Why do you people attack someone over and over again about the exact same thing? You made your point. It's shameful.



Toby42 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 5:13:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm switching to graphical. Today's worldwide figures (Wikipedia):

[image]local://upfiles/14086/2082BF5B91F24367BC40740885D958A9.jpg[/image]


I must be missing something. Using the posted figures the death rate is 4.2% (13071/308615 = 0.042 ?



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 5:51:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Toby42

I must be missing something. Using the posted figures the death rate is 4.2% (13071/308615 = 0.042 ?
warspite1

What you are missing is that by using your calculation, you assume all cases recorded that have neither died nor recovered, will recover. This - as we know from the critical patient data - is nonsense.

What is being done by Curtis Lemay is equally nonsense. He is assuming that every recorded case that has neither died not recovered, will die.

So two extreme (and false) ends of the same problem.

Both extremes are patently false and, as has been explained many, many times, trying to obtain a true mortality rate at present is incredibly difficult. The former calculation gives a false sense of 'comfort' (and I use that word in its broadest possible sense for obvious reasons). The latter is simply scaremongering. Nothing more, nothing less.

What can be done is for experts to make assumptions based on what they know about active cases and those that have recovered. This is open to interpretation and is proving difficult for a number of reasons. Simply put, a true mortality rate is probably impossible to calculate at this present time.



Toby42 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 6:11:56 PM)

Whatever you think! 12% is not a valid percentage of deaths!



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 6:25:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Whatever you think! 12% is not a valid percentage of deaths!
warspite1

I think the thing is, we don't know what it will be. That there are massively differing rates from country to country - just look at Italy and Germany - at present, isn't helping the analysis. Add in all the other knowns and what the experts think they know, and yes, I agree, there is nothing to suggest (God willing) that this will come out at anywhere near that figure.



Toby42 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 6:28:41 PM)

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 6:49:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?
warspite1

I wish I have a fiver for every estimate on death toll and infections in the last two (almost three) months [:)].



loki100 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 7:26:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

...

I'm impressed too. Some people can spout the same tripe over and over like a school yard bully. Why do you people attack someone over and over again about the exact same thing? You made your point. It's shameful.


ok, lets have one last trip around this particular issue.

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old). No issue with that, a lot of people don't and mistakes like baserate neglect hamper good decision making on a regular basis (and I am not saying that statisticians can't make bad decisions). So Bob invents his own method and (since I assume he is intelligent) thinks this is better than any other (& most certainly cannot be wrong because ...)

Now lets have a wee analogy. I really understand nothing about nuclear physics. In my view, that makes me a truely rubbish person to put in charge of a nuclear power plant. In the Bob world, my ignorance makes me the ideal candidate.

I mean yes, its impressive that he can make a chart out of figures but that doesn't make it anywhere near right.

For the little its worth I think we are heading for 2 very different mortality ranges off this virus.

If, for the most part, the wider health systems don't collapse 1-5% (pick a number you're going to be as wrong as anyone else), if they do then I'd go for 10-15% (possibly hugher) for all the reasons that Franciscus gives.

And I'll stick to estimates generated by people with a grasp of statistical methods in the meantime.



sPzAbt653 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 8:33:33 PM)

Maryland closes beaches !

New Jersey orders all 'non-essential' people to stay at home.

Maryland National Guard assists testing stations [as seen in such films as The Crazies and Resident Evil [;)] ]

And yes, the return of the goofy irrelevant totted-up numbers argument !!

[image]local://upfiles/24850/F1B9EBFE388A47158C11B71D3BAEF317.jpg[/image]



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 10:57:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?
warspite1

I wish I have a fiver for every estimate on death toll and infections in the last two (almost three) months [:)].



[:D]

Aye. Everywhere I look I see different numbers and that's from people who are supposed to know what's going on. So how anyone can come down on anyone for posting their own is beyond me.

I'd like to say we'll know when the smoke clears we'll know what percent died but no one even knows if there will actually be an end. Corona virus have a penchant for mutating. So what if it mutates into something more deadly? Or less deadly? Maybe it's a permanent fixture like the seasonal flu. All of the facts are not even known for what's going around right now.

In any event one thing is for sure. The planet's economies are a shambles. That will likely kill more than the disease. But pollution is way down.



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 11:02:42 PM)

This should prove interesting: https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?utm_source=pocket-newtab



Red2112 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/22/2020 11:03:22 PM)

At you´re discretion...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2ZRT-gWZ8M&feature=emb_logo



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 6:47:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?
warspite1

I wish I have a fiver for every estimate on death toll and infections in the last two (almost three) months [:)].




So how anyone can come down on anyone for posting their own is beyond me.

I'd like to say we'll know when the smoke clears we'll know what percent died but no one even knows if there will actually be an end. Corona virus have a penchant for mutating. So what if it mutates into something more deadly? Or less deadly? Maybe it's a permanent fixture like the seasonal flu. All of the facts are not even known for what's going around right now.

warspite1

Re the first point my answer is simple. Its not just how he has calculated and posted what he has - remember the opening post was to say how he hates to be the bearer of bad news but we've been calculating this the wrong way. So he thinks his patently false calculation is an accurate way to look at the current situation - and, as shown above, its not. Without any caveat, without any explanation re the active cases, presenting in this format is quite simply scaremongering. A simple caveat to his posts would be fine. Something like, note: these numbers do not take account of the active cases whose outcome we do not know and, because of its size, this data could have a major bearing on the numbers presented.

Re your second point yes, we don't know where this hideous thing will end up and, god-forbid, if it does mutate (or whatever viruses do) or swamps health systems, or causes people to really panic if they see its not getting any better, then maybe his 'calculations' will come to pass - who knows? But that does not make this irresponsible posting right.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

But pollution is way down.

warspite1

Monty Python have a song about that [:)]



Red2112 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 9:46:22 AM)

I think a 17 year old kid beat him and some...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXFm2u4EHrs

To be honest I would not trust the Wiki for serious stuff either.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 1:15:15 PM)

"WHO launches global megatrial of the four most promising coronavirus treatments"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments

No vaccine = à la Frankenstein trial and error treatments. I guess what might work for x might not work for y. And vice versa. It has already cured people though. In China, SK, Thailand etc etc.



Blond_Knight -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 2:22:49 PM)

Im done with this virus drama. I had two dates scheduled for last weekend and due to the virus, whether fear of it or having to having work late due to it the actual number of dates I had this weekend was zero.

I know what youre going to say, the virus had nothing to do with it. ;)



Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 2:34:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

What is being done by Curtis Lemay is equally nonsense. He is assuming that every recorded case that has neither died not recovered, will die.


That is false. I am omitting the cases that haven't resolved - just like all those coins that were still in the air. We don't know how those cases will resolve, so they can't be included.



Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 2:37:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old).


I'm pretty sure that pandemics weren't spread by jet aircraft 2.5 millennia ago. There has never been a pandemic like this one. Old models are just guesswork.



Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 2:37:40 PM)

Today's chart:

[image]local://upfiles/14086/FC4882CF43104DAC88BF1FAA1F4ED6E7.jpg[/image]



*Lava* -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 2:59:18 PM)

It is pretty clear that due to the lack of testing we haven't a clue what the death rate is. What we can be sure of though is that 350,000 is total Bullshite. Infection rate is more likely in the millions and the death rate is somewhere around 1%.



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 3:15:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lava
Infection rate is more likely in the millions and the death rate is somewhere around 1%.


Prove it. Your claims are Complete and utter Bullshite.

See, anyone can make any claims they want and there's no proof of otherwise because no one know for certain. [:D][:D][:D]



*Lava* -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 3:28:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
Prove it.


In the one country which first started large scale testing (South Korea) and where the numbers published can be somewhat believable (almost certainly still lots of folks who had it but weren't confirmed)...

South Korea has 8961 confirmed cases and 111 deaths. That is a 0.012 death rate.



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/23/2020 4:15:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lava

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
Prove it.


In the one country which first started large scale testing (South Korea) and where the numbers published can be somewhat believable (almost certainly still lots of folks who had it but weren't confirmed)...

South Korea has 8961 confirmed cases and 111 deaths. That is a 0.012 death rate.


See right there you made an error. You are making an assumption that every case was tested. That is highly doubtful. You would have to test the entire population to get an accurate number. No one will ever have an entirely accurate number. Extrapolations is as close as anyone will ever come.

And personally I don't give a flying F about the numbers. Just do what you know you should do to avoid becoming one. It's just that it's annoying to see people ganging up on others who have an opinion.



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