RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (Full Version)

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Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 4:30:16 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wow.....er just wow.....


Yeah I know, right?

Especially when you look at this one. The closed cases graph on the right. Oh wait, we can't have that because it supports Bob's views. Ignore that one. [:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Maybe you better write these guys and tell them how wrong they are and they need to get their heads out of there bums. [:D]


Sources
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports - World Health Organization (WHO)
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S. -. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Outbreak Notification - National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - Australian Government Department of Health
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic prediction - Jonathan M. Read et al, Jan. 23,2020.
Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China - Maimuna Majumder and Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard University - Computational Health Informatics Program - Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020
Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV - 25 January 2020 - Imperial College London‌
Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review - Epidemiology. Nov. 24, 2013
A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern - Chen Want et al. The Lancet. January 24, 2020
Symptoms of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - CDC
China's National Health Commission news conference on coronavirus - Al Jazeera. January 26, 2020
Wuhan lockdown 'unprecedented', shows commitment to contain virus: WHO representative in China - Reuters. January 23, 2020
Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - WHO, January 23, 2020
International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on novel coronavirus in China - WHO, January 30, 2020
Human-to-human transmission of Wuhan virus outside of China, confirmed in Germany, Japan and Vietnam - The Online Citizen, Jan. 29, 2020
Who: "Live from Geneva on the new #coronavirus outbreak"
CDC Confirms Person-to-Person Spread of New Coronavirus in the United States - CDC Press Release, Jan. 30, 2020
CMO confirms cases of coronavirus in England - CMO, UK, Jan. 31, 2020
Coronavirus in France: what you need to know - The Local France, Jan. 31, 2020
First two persons infected with coronavirus identified in Russia - Tass, Jan. 31, 2020
Updated understanding of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in Wuhan, China - Journal of Medical Virology, Jan. 29, 2020
Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China - Zhidong Cao et al., Jan. 29, 2020
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak - Jan. 30, 2020
Coronavirus: Window of opportunity to act, World Health Organization says - BBC, Feb,\. 4, 2020
Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China - Wang et. al, JAMA, Feb. 7, 2020





















MrRoadrunner -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 4:45:29 PM)

US deaths to reported.

588/48,778 = 1.2%

RR



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 5:03:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wow.....er just wow.....


Yeah I know, right?

warspite1

No I wasn't referring to any links you posted - I thought you said in post 741 you were tired of all that? [8|]. I'd given you the last word that you appeared so childishly desperate for in post 741 - but you couldn't let it go could you?

I was referring to your last post (748) and 5 lines of the most arrogant, pig-ignorant verbiage I've read in a very long time. Well done. Read that back to yourself. No truly, well done.



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 5:35:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wow.....er just wow.....


Yeah I know, right?

warspite1

No I wasn't referring to any links you posted - I thought you said in post 741 you were tired of all that? [8|]. I'd given you the last word that you appeared so childishly desperate for in post 741 - but you couldn't let it go could you?

I was referring to your last post (748) and 5 lines of the most arrogant, pig-ignorant verbiage I've read in a very long time. Well done. Read that back to yourself. No truly, well done.



Okay so back to basics. How did you arrive at your numbers? And please attempt to use logic instead of emotions. I won't give you childish second paragraph a response. I left middle school long ago.



warspite1 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 6:14:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wow.....er just wow.....


Yeah I know, right?

warspite1

No I wasn't referring to any links you posted - I thought you said in post 741 you were tired of all that? [8|]. I'd given you the last word that you appeared so childishly desperate for in post 741 - but you couldn't let it go could you?

I was referring to your last post (748) and 5 lines of the most arrogant, pig-ignorant verbiage I've read in a very long time. Well done. Read that back to yourself. No truly, well done.



Okay so back to basics. How did you arrive at your numbers? And please attempt to use logic instead of emotions. I won't give you childish second paragraph a response. I left middle school long ago.
warspite1

Sorry I don't understand? I've given you the last word you wanted on this death rate cobblers, so why do you try yet again to bring it up? Is it just so that any further response will have you crying about how there is a cabal trying to silence Bob?

And please don't give it the faux superiority. "I left middle school long ago". Yes very haughty, very superior, and yet you couldn't help yourself with the 'state of panic' the 'running around like a chicken' and 'names will not be mentioned'. Child.

So no, I have given you the last word (although you don't appear happy with your victory - maybe even you have the self awareness to know its Pyrrhic?).

So without raising this again I will simply refer you to what has been said before: I don't have numbers. I'm not an expert, I don't pretend to be an expert on pandemics or medical matters generally. I can't give you an accurate death rate, because at present no one can. I haven't said I can. What I have said is the 'death rate' as being adopted by Curtis Lemay is wrong. And forget the coin crap - these are human beings - his 'calculation' completely ignores the largest data point. It completely ignores it. Unless they all die his numbers are nothing but scaremongering and totally irresponsible if presented without any caveat. There is no undue emotion here, there is no hidden agenda; the numbers will be what they will be. To confidently state "I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we've been calculating this wrongly" is wrong.

There, nothing new, nothing different, you have the last word on the numbers. You've said I'm wrong and I can't be bothered to argue with you about Curtis Lemay spurious 'death rate'.




MrsWargamer -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:03:42 PM)

No numbers, no stats, no references. I am just plain worried that Canada and the US have not been aggressive enough with this.

We've seen it at work in places that have been aggressive, and it has been rough on them.
I'm concerned that our populations are going to get a real kick in the teeth shortly.

Whether from the virus itself or from our own ill-advised actions.



sPzAbt653 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:15:41 PM)

Here in Maryland our ****ty government gets serious and starts posting signs like this one.

[image]local://upfiles/24850/AA5A17C773024DC9B2E296B9867AC8DF.jpg[/image]



sPzAbt653 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:18:14 PM)

Seems like many folks are heeding the signs. This is the shopping center parking lot, which is usually packed except for the back rows. Kind of weird and eerie.

[image]local://upfiles/24850/4E0ACD78D5784EC5A222ADC295C05B1F.jpg[/image]



sPzAbt653 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:20:31 PM)

Then when I got into the store I had to check out the TP aisle ... holy ****! The poor sewer system must be overflowing from all the slobs pooping out their emergency rations.

[image]local://upfiles/24850/6CEF0FCE6EFC4CCC84F3E9A4CA5D795C.jpg[/image]



sPzAbt653 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:21:45 PM)

I wonder what the 'facial tissue' aisle looks like? Oh nice, they left a couple packages.

[image]local://upfiles/24850/FC9EC1831DA246DA8F55E652113A6F50.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:22:08 PM)

I can't speak for Canada, but in many ways the US got ahead of many European countries. That's mainly due to the act that Europe "went first." We got to see what was happening there and how countries were imposing countermeasures.

The US has multiple levels of government that still play a big role in things. In my state (Georgia), the state, county and city governments were in many ways ahead of the federal government. Most or all of our schools shut down a week before England's did. Strict countermeasures went into effect about nine days ago. That was just a few days after Italy, but Italy had a two-week head start in terms of the maturing of the outbreak there.

These numbers aren't absolute - there are lots of variations here and there. Overall, though the US should do okay.



quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

No numbers, no stats, no references. I am just plain worried that Canada and the US have not been aggressive enough with this.

We've seen it at work in places that have been aggressive, and it has been rough on them.
I'm concerned that our populations are going to get a real kick in the teeth shortly.

Whether from the virus itself or from our own ill-advised actions.




sPzAbt653 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:27:34 PM)

I often feel uncomfortable here in the glutinous USA when walking thru the stores with shelves full to overflowing. Not so today, as many shelves are scavenged to bareness. I can't blame people, because not knowing how long this will last, if I had a wife and kids I'm sure I would have grabbed as much as I could also. But of course, I actually would have been better prepared in the first place, as I am now. I'm not a prepper but I worked for FEMA for a while and I know that you can't really rely on anyone else, nor should you. And its also a mistake to think that things can't get worse.

[image]local://upfiles/24850/3934CA559A934B069A462C5CAC7533FA.jpg[/image]



PipFromSlitherine -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:31:22 PM)

In a week everything will be restocked. Happened here. There are not issues with the supply chain.

Cheers

Pip



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:32:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

No numbers, no stats, no references. I am just plain worried that Canada and the US have not been aggressive enough with this.

We've seen it at work in places that have been aggressive, and it has been rough on them.
I'm concerned that our populations are going to get a real kick in the teeth shortly.

Whether from the virus itself or from our own ill-advised actions.


I agree. And now there is talk about doing away with social distancing in the U.S. to 'save the economy'. What about saving people?



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:39:04 PM)

According to Worldometer website.



[image]local://upfiles/45799/A0AB3B9527F143D688A8EEDD66C0FB06.jpg[/image]



TulliusDetritus -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 7:46:32 PM)

Panic buying is harming the old and disabled people. Truck drivers too: they need to work twice. Fear is understandable and universal though.



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 8:02:24 PM)

WHO situation report:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200324-sitrep-64-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=703b2c40_2

I thought China had no new cases. [&:]

And/or any new cases were imported as opposed to transmitted.



RangerJoe -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 9:12:40 PM)

Just develop Obsessive Compulsive Behavior and keep enough essentials for at least two weeks. Canned or dry, if canned just make sure that you have a mechanical can opener. Bottled water for awhile as well as a means to get more clean fluid - even if it is tree sap!



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 10:13:47 PM)

I've had the same P38 can openers for 50 years. [:D]



RangerJoe -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 10:23:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

I've had the same P38 can openers for 50 years. [:D]


They work great but I have the larger version.



rommel222 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 10:24:39 PM)

Greetings to All,
I am astounded by emperor Cuomo deciding not to buy thousands of ventilators in 2015 to prepare for epidemics after HiN1 swine flu scare.
Instead formed "death panels" for who would be placed on them and who would not.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-cites-report-cuomo-passed-on-chance-to-buy-16000-ventilators-in-2015

Now he wants ventilators. He is a three term gov and is coming up for a fourth term which has never been done in NY state.




rommel222 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/24/2020 11:21:35 PM)

Greetings to All Again,
Corona Virus cases in NY doubling every 3 days-Gov Cuomo:
https://www.wamc.org/post/coronavirus-new-york-infection-rate-doubling-about-every-3-days-cuomo-says



Curtis Lemay -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/25/2020 2:30:50 PM)

Today's worldwide figures (I'm sure not seeing any "flattening of the curve" here):

[image]local://upfiles/14086/90D4E0123897485DB6CE72165BE04E24.jpg[/image]



z1812 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/25/2020 3:08:28 PM)

This article is very interesting. It lists the Flu Mortality rate in Italy, year by year, from 2013 to 2017. It seems the current death rate while extremely tragic, is not unusual for the country.

Make of it what you will.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285



MrRoadrunner -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/25/2020 3:12:55 PM)

19677/433172 = 4.5%

RR



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/25/2020 4:25:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

This article is very interesting. It lists the Flu Mortality rate in Italy, year by year, from 2013 to 2017. It seems the current death rate while extremely tragic, is not unusual for the country.

Make of it what you will.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285


It could be related to Italy's aging population. If I recall theirs has the highest average age of the EU.



Erik Rutins -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/25/2020 7:10:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812
This article is very interesting. It lists the Flu Mortality rate in Italy, year by year, from 2013 to 2017. It seems the current death rate while extremely tragic, is not unusual for the country.


Statistics aside, I think the clear evidence in front of us is that Italy's hospitals and ICUs are not filled to overflowing and forced to choose who will get a ventilator on a normal flu year. If it were allowed to just spread like the flu is allowed to, the number of deaths relative to a normal flu year would be incomparable. This virus can do in a much shorter time what flu normally does over half a year.

Regards,

- Erik



Lobster -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/25/2020 10:21:36 PM)

W.H.O. situation report:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=2b74edd8_2
Worldometer:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



Zovs -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/26/2020 1:22:32 AM)

This is very encouraging news! The U.K. has downgraded Covid-19.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid



rico21 -> RE: FROM THE RED ZONE (3/26/2020 7:06:07 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

US have not been aggressive enough with this...

Whether from the virus itself or from our own ill-advised actions.

I don't agree with you.[:D]

[image]local://upfiles/53841/078E8944805B4E1D82EFF7FE0676259A.jpg[/image]



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