RE: OT: Corona virus (Full Version)

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jeffk3510 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/26/2020 6:13:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
P.S. If there's ever a need in the Forum to know songs of southern high country birds, or how to combat thigh chaffing when backpacking, I'm at your service.


How do you combat that?

I'm asking for a friend..



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/26/2020 6:14:45 PM)

Anti-Monkey Butt Powder is the cure. To apply, stand on your head and have a friend sprinkle the afflicted regions (or you can use a cotton duster or bellows).

[image]local://upfiles/8143/6E9743F27A0C4643B8DA44799ED0D395.jpg[/image]



jeffk3510 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/26/2020 6:17:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Anti-Monkey Butt Powder is the cure. To apply, stand on your head and have a friend sprinkle the afflicted regions (or you can use a cotton duster or bellows).

[image]local://upfiles/8143/6E9743F27A0C4643B8DA44799ED0D395.jpg[/image]


You may not understand how comfortable I am around people. I would let my friends apply this, using your method.




Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/26/2020 6:23:17 PM)

Here's hoping your friends are of the type on the left, rather than the right. [8D]

[image]local://upfiles/8143/10583BFDA7B34105B843823CBE8E5B7C.jpg[/image]



USSAmerica -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/26/2020 6:59:43 PM)

Thank you for the detailed info, Andre! [sm=00000436.gif]


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Chickenboy.

This kind of info is why I created this thread. It's one of the reasons I love the Forum. Tremendous spectrum of knowledge here.

P.S. If there's ever a need in the Forum to know songs of southern high country birds, or how to combat thigh chaffing when backpacking, I'm at your service.


Dan, when we need great historical stories, often from a fantastic personal perspective, we go to you. [8D]



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/26/2020 7:37:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. If there's ever a need in the Forum to know . . . how to combat thigh chaffing when backpacking, I'm at your service.


Simple, quit backpacking!



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/26/2020 10:15:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


Anyone that doesn't have a 72-hour bug-out bag / kit for the family ought to update their disaster preparedness planning in general.



There is a subject in need of ken.



[image]local://upfiles/55056/9B731C587091442AA206E9A09118FFED.gif[/image]



Ian R -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:08:25 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I think the dangerous assumption many parties are making is that this will "go away" when the weather gets warmer like the flu does. That may, or may not, be true, but I have not seen any evidence of why people seem so sure of this assumption. I hope so. I think it would be prudent to hope that it does, but prepare like it won't.



It has been fairly hot down this way for the last 3 months, which you would think tends against the warm weather idea. However, according to the latest AHPPC sitrep, in every known case here, the patient acquired the virus outside the country, and all 22 patients have been quarantined.

quote:

In Australia there is still effective containment of the COVID-19 outbreak with only 22 cases diagnosed so far. Fifteen of these were linked to travel from Hubei province prior to 1 February, and seven more recent cases were imported with the returning passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. GPs and hospitals are continuing to screen returning travellers for illness, and there have been several thousand negative tests to date.

There is no evidence of community transmission in Australia at present and there is no reason for the general community to take additional precautions, such as wearing masks, or avoiding restaurants and other places of public gathering. However, it is a timely reminder that everyone should practise good hygiene to protect against infections.


https://www.health.gov.au/news/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19



DOCUP -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:20:12 AM)

I am curious about the comorbidities (other health issues ie respiratory issues, diabetes, cardiac, etc) of the patients that have past away? Did the patients that died get a pneumonia on top of the coronavirus?

USS America, a response to your question on page one. Mortality rate. A few reasons why the mortality rate is higher in Wuhan.

1. Wuhan has been hit the hardest. It's the epicenter of COVID-19. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, and a quick google search isn't bearing any fruit. Lets just say that Wuhan (just looked it up 3 hospital, I can't read Chinese so I don't know the specifics about these hospitals) had 3 hospitals totaling 1150 beds (350 beds is a medium size hospital in USA). In the winter time respiratory illness usually go up, this will add more patients to the hospitals than any other season. It is currently winter time in China. This means that these hospitals will be running closer to max capacity. Now COVID-19 starts to add more patients and its severity is worse than the other types of Coronavirus. These patients start hitting the intensive care units. We will say around 50 ICU beds in an acute care hospital (say 150 Adult ICU beds in all 3 hospitals), now there will be fewer Pediatric ICU beds (I would say probably no more than 25 beds in the city). Now they can transfer ill patients to hospitals outside of Wuhan. When those hospitals get full they have to send these sick people farther away, it's dangerous to transport patients to other facilities. This delay in treatment can result in accidental death or the transfer alone can kill a patient.

2. Lets talk about the staffing of these hospitals. I was just reading a few articles today about staffing in Wuhan. I will estimate that these three hospital have around 1,300 nurses per hospital (so 4,000 nurses or so). Next count in the doctors, respiratory techs, x-ray techs, patient care techs, and the list goes on and on. What happens when these people get sick. According to the China's national health commission around 3,200 health care personnel have contracted COVID-19. Staff is working sick, long hours, have over crowded hospitals and probably short on everything that is needed to keep patients alive. So, short on fluids to keep patients hydrated when they can't eat (probably most of the respiratory patients,) fluids to reconstitute antibiotics or other medications. Medications will run short. What about ventilators (machines that will breath for the patients), IV pumps, monitors, and other vital equipment will be in use, hospitals only keep some many of each machine. These over worked, tired, sick medical staff will probably make some mistakes and accidentally hurt or kill a patient due to the conditions. They may not see the patient going into septic shock or respiratory distress. Drugs may be given in the wrong dose, at the wrong time or not at all due to fatigue, not being there at all.

The medical system in Wuhan is over extended, that is one of the reasons that they have a higher death ratio than other areas. I doubt that its because of poor medicine but due to much at one time.

Also some deaths may not be reported due to patient was of an older age or some other comorbidity that the local officials might not have wanted the death to be examined. In the US death at a certain age or with certain comorbidities can be called natural death and the body sent to the funeral home.

Chickenboy made a good comment about comorbidities of the patients. Few people die from Coronavirus, its the patients other problems or did a pneumonia or a hospital acquired infection tag team the patient. When Swine Flu hit years ago it was MRSA pneumonia that killed most of the patients.



Ian R -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:28:18 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

What do I think will happen? Something more akin to SARS, albeit with a more significant global spread in the interim. I expect the peak of this will probably not be too far off and that, with the onset of warmer weather in most of the Northern Hemisphere it will abate. I would be surprised if we heard much about this 12 months from now, excepting in cooler climates (you listening, Oz land?) as they slip into their annual influenza cycle.


See linked sitrep in above post - measures have been put in place, including quarantine. My parents' generation remembered TB sufferers being sent away to what might be described as a more comfortable version of a concentration camp. The legal framework for that sort of thing still exists.

Anyway, winter here is about the same temperature as summer in Europe.






Chickenboy -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:30:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

I am curious about the comorbidities (other health issues ie respiratory issues, diabetes, cardiac, etc) of the patients that have past away? Did the patients that died get a pneumonia on top of the coronavirus?


Good post, DOCUP. Sounds like you know your way around hospital staffing and administration?

I have heard-anecdotally-that most of the mortality seems to be in older patients. I recall hearing a Chinese health official talk about a predominance of existing 'cardiovascular issues' in most of the mortality. But I'll be darned if I can find age-related risk ratios anywhere. Not sure how much verity I'd attach to the official CCP commentary, but I'm curious.



Ian R -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:38:11 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
P.S. If there's ever a need in the Forum to know songs of southern high country birds, or how to combat thigh chaffing when backpacking, I'm at your service.


How do you combat that?

I'm asking for a friend..


Bamboo undershorts.



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:49:20 AM)

Published:February 20, 2020

"The age distribution of COVID-19 cases was skewed towards older age groups with a median age of 45 years (IQR 33–56) for patients who were alive or who had an unknown outcome at the time of reporting (figure 1). The median age of patients who had died at the time of reporting was 70 years (IQR 65–81).

Few patients (13 [3%]) were younger than 15 years. Adjustment for the age demographics of China confirmed a deficit of infections among children, with a RR below 0·5 in patients younger than 15 years (figure 1). The RR measure indicated a sharp increase in the likelihood of reported COVID-19 among people aged 30 years and older."



"Based on our small sample of patients with COVID-19, we note an intriguing age distribution, reminiscent of that of SARS, which warrants further epidemiological and serological studies. "

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30026-1/fulltext



Erik Rutins -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:50:56 AM)

I think this is what you want:

The overall case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.3% (1023 deaths among 44 672 confirmed cases). No deaths occurred in the group aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8.0% CFR and cases in those aged 80 years and older had a 14.8% CFR. No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The CFR was 49.0% among critical cases. CFR was elevated among those with preexisting comorbid conditions—10.5% for cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6.0% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. Among the 44 672 cases, a total of 1716 were health workers (3.8%), 1080 of whom were in Wuhan (63%). Overall, 14.8% of confirmed cases among health workers were classified as severe or critical and 5 deaths were observed.1

From this article:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

We don't know the IFR, or fatality rate per infection, so the real rates are likely somewhat lower but this is the best data we have at this point.



Footslogger -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:51:50 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Assuming they can't put this genie back in the bottle, it's particularly worrying for this forum. Anecdotally, most of our membership appears to be in the riskier age category.

Edit: Get your daily updates here.


This is where I get my daily info:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3-E3K4v58o

Quite Interesting Really!



[image]local://upfiles/30276/02095247C7514CCA976972BE8E1B5AB7.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:53:41 AM)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:

The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.

Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.

There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.

97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.

Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.

Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.

Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.

Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.

Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.

Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.

Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.

National mortality rate was basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.

Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

Elderly people with basic diseases, as long as they have pneumonia, were clinically a high-risk factor regardless of whether it is a coronavirus or not, and the case fatality rate was also very high, so it is not that the case fatality rate of pneumonia is high because of the infection with the new coronavirus. "This point must be explained to everyone," concluded the NHC official.[7]




Ian R -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 1:53:47 AM)

quote:

Across the world, there have been about 81,310 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) and 2,771 reported deaths. Of confirmed cases reported globally, the case fatality rate is approximately 3.4%. The case fatality rate in countries and regions outside mainland China is 1.4%


That is from today's update found here: https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert

There are now officially 23 cases in Oz - an 8th person from the Diamond Princess was diagnosed. However, 15 of the 23 have already recovered.



Footslogger -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:05:30 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

quote:

Across the world, there have been about 81,310 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) and 2,771 reported deaths. Of confirmed cases reported globally, the case fatality rate is approximately 3.4%. The case fatality rate in countries and regions outside mainland China is 1.4%


That is from today's update found here: https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert

There are now officially 23 cases in Oz - an 8th person from the Diamond Princess was diagnosed. However, 15 of the 23 have already recovered.


Ian. How is Strawya? I know you Aussies don't say Australia.



Ian R -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:17:41 AM)

It's a slightly humid 24C in Sydney, warmer inland, and a recent monsoonal deluge put out most of the fires.

I feel sorry for the 170 people who were on the Diamond Princess though, or at least the 162 that are still in quarantine in Darwin - it is the wet season up there, 30C and 80% humidity. 2 weeks locked up there would send most of us troppo.



CaptBeefheart -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:18:55 AM)

My business is definitely suffering from this. Events have been cancelled and even the British Embassy pub is shut down for the time being, so you know it's serious (luckily I have a decent supply of whiskey at home, which may be the best thing to take on this microscopic critter). That said, here in Seoul the numbers are still not too bad. Night life has decreased, but the restaurants downtown are still full at lunch and I doubt Starbux has suffered much (there are more Starbucks here than any other city on the planet). Some large companies are having people work from home, but small ones like mine are plugging along. Another factor is schools are shut down for the time being. At some point, life will have to go on.

Due to a super spreader mixing it closely with other congregants at a holy roller cult church in Daegu and at a funeral nearby, about 80% of the country's cases are in the Daegu (fourth-largest city) and surrounding province area. The missus, who is a nurse practitioner, said they are asking for medical volunteers to go to that area to help. She said she would if she were still single and didn't have a kid (she's done missionary work in the past). At hospitals like hers they are screening people at the door: they'll ask about your symptoms and recent history and if you are suspect, you'll get a free test.

There are reports of restaurants denying foreigners like myself (which would be funny since I haven't been out of this country since last summer), but I have yet to see it. A lot of people wear masks, although I haven't succumbed to that. If I get any kind of symptoms, I'll put one on. At the men's room in my office building, which is shared with other companies, I see about 90% of the users wash their hands, up from about 25% pre-virus. My guess is the number of cold and normal flu cases has dropped in the country what with everyone so hygiene conscious all of a sudden.

Another upside is the air quality is better. We've had some very lousy air pollution in the last 10 years or so, and depending on who you believe, about 20-40% of that comes from China. Supposedly they are spewing a lot less filth across the Yellow Sea due to factory shutdowns.

Anyway, life goes on, although I'll definitely be taking an earnings hit this year. I don't think anyone I know will be picking up coronavirus, but you never know. Being smart, like not touching your face without having just washed your hands (something I've been doing for years), will go a long way.

Good luck to y'all.

Cheers,
CB



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:26:11 AM)

War by any other means.

[image]local://upfiles/55056/BC85D72D2DDD408B9610CCFEEE0B8509.jpg[/image]



Ian R -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:39:40 AM)

This does not sound good:
quote:

C.D.C. Confirms First Possible Community Transmission of Coronavirus in U.S.
A case in California may be the first infection without a known link to travel abroad.

Roni Caryn Rabin
By Roni Caryn Rabin
Feb. 26, 2020
Updated 9:03 p.m. ET

A person in California who was not exposed to anyone known to be infected with the coronavirus, and had not traveled to countries in which the virus is circulating, has tested positive for the infection.

It may be the first case of community spread in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

“At this point, the patient’s exposure is unknown,” the C.D.C. statement said. “The case was detected through the U.S. public health system and picked up by astute clinicians.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-cdc-usa.html



jeffk3510 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:22:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's hoping your friends are of the type on the left, rather than the right. [8D]

[image]local://upfiles/8143/10583BFDA7B34105B843823CBE8E5B7C.jpg[/image]


I would let either one of those four sprinkle it on.

The guy on the right looks like a nice, trustworthy guy.



jeffk3510 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:24:51 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

My business is definitely suffering from this. Events have been cancelled and even the British Embassy pub is shut down for the time being, so you know it's serious (luckily I have a decent supply of whiskey at home, which may be the best thing to take on this microscopic critter). That said, here in Seoul the numbers are still not too bad. Night life has decreased, but the restaurants downtown are still full at lunch and I doubt Starbux has suffered much (there are more Starbucks here than any other city on the planet). Some large companies are having people work from home, but small ones like mine are plugging along. Another factor is schools are shut down for the time being. At some point, life will have to go on.

Due to a super spreader mixing it closely with other congregants at a holy roller cult church in Daegu and at a funeral nearby, about 80% of the country's cases are in the Daegu (fourth-largest city) and surrounding province area. The missus, who is a nurse practitioner, said they are asking for medical volunteers to go to that area to help. She said she would if she were still single and didn't have a kid (she's done missionary work in the past). At hospitals like hers they are screening people at the door: they'll ask about your symptoms and recent history and if you are suspect, you'll get a free test.

There are reports of restaurants denying foreigners like myself (which would be funny since I haven't been out of this country since last summer), but I have yet to see it. A lot of people wear masks, although I haven't succumbed to that. If I get any kind of symptoms, I'll put one on. At the men's room in my office building, which is shared with other companies, I see about 90% of the users wash their hands, up from about 25% pre-virus. My guess is the number of cold and normal flu cases has dropped in the country what with everyone so hygiene conscious all of a sudden.

Another upside is the air quality is better. We've had some very lousy air pollution in the last 10 years or so, and depending on who you believe, about 20-40% of that comes from China. Supposedly they are spewing a lot less filth across the Yellow Sea due to factory shutdowns.

Anyway, life goes on, although I'll definitely be taking an earnings hit this year. I don't think anyone I know will be picking up coronavirus, but you never know. Being smart, like not touching your face without having just washed your hands (something I've been doing for years), will go a long way.

Good luck to y'all.

Cheers,
CB


Interesting man - you know, I have been paying attention more who washes hands and who doesn't. I've always washed my hands after using the bathroom in any method...I would say 3 out of 4 don't... its disgusting. 3 out of my 3 kids don't.. but still.

All joking aside - for the smarter ones here on the forum, we preach to our kids about taking care of your body, cleanliness, and just overall good hygiene - if you do anything at all, is washing hands the biggest preventer of ALOT of crap in this world? I also think that completely going overboard (cleaning everything, not letting your kids get sick, get into ****.. etc.. is actually counter productive.. oh, your kids have chickenpox? I'll send mine right over... I want my kids to have an immune system and be exposed to things.

Dan - you originally asked about how business if being affected - markets are getting hammered, but that just means there are huge opportunities to make $ as a result - at least commodity trading wise (what I do for a living)



HansBolter -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 2:37:26 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

It's a slightly humid 24C in Sydney, warmer inland, and a recent monsoonal deluge put out most of the fires.

I feel sorry for the 170 people who were on the Diamond Princess though, or at least the 162 that are still in quarantine in Darwin - it is the wet season up there, 30C and 80% humidity. 2 weeks locked up there would send most of us troppo.



For the life of me I will never be capable of grasping centigrade/celcius.

To an American 24 degrees is 8 degrees below freezing.

So what does 24c equate to in our measuring system? A balmy 68 or mildly uncomfortable 78 or a sticky and uncomfortable 88?

Help a clueless guy out here will ya.



Ian R -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 3:21:39 PM)

C to F - double it and add about 28.

So 24C about = 76F.

This only works in the span of about 10C to about 30C, outside those parameters 28 does not work.



Fishbed -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 3:25:21 PM)

Zero is ice cold, 20 is the usual ambient temperature in a protected environment (aka a lab, a classroom), 30 is a hot day in summer and in most countries without generalized AC schools, companies & all would be kindly asked to close around 37, which happens to be around the temperature of the human body by the way. Water boils at 100.

And I'd say 24 is a mild, sweet temperature for Summer in Australia.



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 4:20:03 PM)

Just stopped by the local shoe store. the inventory was low. I Asked "Not much to choose from, Corona Virus?"<Chuckle>. "Yes" she replied, "the manager said she is scared to order anything that comes from China."



cantona2 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 5:06:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Forum is a repository of smart, well-reasoned folks, and some of them might offer informed opinions about the Corona virus outbreak and how it might play out. Chickenboy comes to mind, given his background, and there may be others. I hope you'll chime in, as your thoughts should be very interested to those of us who are laymen and have no clue what's going on.


To be perfectly honest the media is not helping one bit. News of people getting ill in a certain region are largely exaggerated, for example headline Coronavirus spreads to Southern Italy - one reported case!!! Look at the screenshot below from a local paper. Look at the thicknesses of the fonts and the colours for each piece of information!

I do not understand the mass hysteria on evidence when one reads a little deeper into the matter. I gave my maths group in school the task to work out the % of the world's population that has died (well published figures that is) using an estimated figure of 8 billion. I think it worked out at 0.0000000009% death rate.

Social media is not helping either with this being constantly thrust in peoples faces and lives every second of the day.

Death rates from more common illnesses and colds are much higher but I am amazed at the paralysis a lot of western states are exhibiting. Closing schools, cancelling football matches, those damned masks...

About the only positive thing that has come of this is a quarantine of two weeks on full pay if you have recently visited certain countries on the list...hey does playing the game count? We are in the trenches in China after all [:D]

[image]local://upfiles/25083/B392A8A53384426F8646DF785D912EBE.jpg[/image]



USSAmerica -> RE: OT: Corona virus (2/27/2020 5:31:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

C to F - double it and add about 28.

So 24C about = 76F.

This only works in the span of about 10C to about 30C, outside those parameters 28 does not work.



F = (C x 9/5) +32.



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