RE: OT: Corona virus (Full Version)

All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition



Message


Cap Mandrake -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 12:56:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

But small groups of 50 to 150 Marines



About half women?


I believe the Coronavirus will put us in the bag for the Chinese to grab.


PBS did a show on life on a carrier a while back. This was a "coed" crew and the producers kept asking sailors how things were between men and women on board and they would get a big smile on their face and start to answer but the office following around the camera crew would make a warning sound and then the smile would go away. Funniest damn thing.




JohnDillworth -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 1:00:22 PM)

Interesting data point. This is a lagging indicator so it might best be used as a baseline of where were were at before lockdown and where we got to with restrictions. Again, a lagging indicator but in my limited experience it takes about 3 weeks for what we are actually doing to show up on the chart. So lets snap a chalk-line for May 7 https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/




Lowpe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 1:21:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Even though this looks terrible I can understand the motivation. The system is built on having the safety valve of lower level of care facilities for patients not sick enough for the expensive high support care of acute care hospitals. These are patients that need either permanent of extended support like physical therapy or injectable medications or even finish out antibiotic therapies. Sadly, these are often patients who have no or incompetent family support. Almost all could be managed at home with home nursing or nursing aides if their "family" gave a damn or didn't have other social problems.

The problem is the level of expertise is not the same as an acute care hospital and the caregiver might have 8 or more patients each and the economic margins are thinner so they likely skimp on PPE. Sending COVID patients still excreting virus to such a facility is signing a death warrant to the uninfected patients there because they ALL have pre-existing conditions.



Good insight!




Lowpe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 1:37:22 PM)

This is kind of shocking.

Workers comp for contracting COVID-19 on the job now easier to claim under order signed by Gov. Newsom

https://ktla.com/news/california/california-makes-it-easier-to-receive-workers-compensation-benefits-for-coronavirus-claims/

Under the order, Californians diagnosed within two weeks of reporting to work between March 19 and July 5 will be presumed to have contracted the virus on the job.

It will fall on employers to refute any claims for medical coverage and benefits.

----




Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 1:51:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Interesting data point. This is a lagging indicator so it might best be used as a baseline of where were were at before lockdown and where we got to with restrictions. Again, a lagging indicator but in my limited experience it takes about 3 weeks for what we are actually doing to show up on the chart. So lets snap a chalk-line for May 7 https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/


John, welcome back! How're things for you and family? Good to see you here.

Thanks for the post. More interesting raw data plus projections. Interesting that every state but one is below the key 1.0 threshold on Ro.

Since my first interest is in my own state, I looked at that. The chart shows Georgia with an estimate of 131k cases on 4/15 (I don't know what the actual number was). With a 0.1% mortality level, that would translate into 1,310 deaths by some future date. If we used a three-week lag, then Georgia would be expected to reach that number around May 6. And, indeed, Georgia has 1,328 as of that date. That's so precise that it makes me think the info is working back - taking actual numbers of deaths as of yesterday, applying the estimated Ro figure, and using that to predict how many actual cases there were a month ago. Going forward, the estimate is about 405k cases by July 1. Applying the 0.1% mortality, that would be about 4,050 deaths - about 250 less than U. Washington projects one that date (or, if we apply the 3-week threshold, about 860 less than U. Wash. projects in late July).

So, this source is spot on with the current mortality in Georgia (and may have used it in modeling) and is somewhat more optimistic about the future for the state than IHME is.

Thanks for providing the source.




Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 2:00:50 PM)

That's one way of dampening enthusiasm for re-opening. The threat of liability is a huge factor for business and their insurers. Lots of pressure applied through via this action. (The powerful trial lawyers organization will love this too; and you know which party they support).




quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This is kind of shocking.

Workers comp for contracting COVID-19 on the job now easier to claim under order signed by Gov. Newsom

https://ktla.com/news/california/california-makes-it-easier-to-receive-workers-compensation-benefits-for-coronavirus-claims/

Under the order, Californians diagnosed within two weeks of reporting to work between March 19 and July 5 will be presumed to have contracted the virus on the job.

It will fall on employers to refute any claims for medical coverage and benefits.

----






Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 2:05:08 PM)

That battle is currently being fought o the national stage, too. There have been myriad proposals for legislation protecting businesses and other entities (charities, governments) from Covid-19 liability. The trial lawyers associations and their allies oppose that. As a general rule, that means Democrat leaders oppose it. But there is pressure on some of them to sign it to allow things to get up and running again. Very tough weighing of factors for all involved.

In addition to all the other fallout, there will be massive impacts on insurance companies (who bear the brunt of litigations costs for entities being sued). Personal and business bankruptcies will skyrocket.

Every which way you look, there are minefields.




Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 2:12:52 PM)

P.S. I don't think there's any way Governor Newsom can legally change the burden of proof in civil cases via executive order. That would take a bill passed by the state legislature and signed into law by the governor (and subject to constitutional provisions and possible interstate commerce implications). But his executive order will still have the desired chilling effect. Clearly, that's his real objective: dissuade business from reopening.




Chickenboy -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 2:20:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've barely followed this story until today. Looks grim. Did the governor have options or were his hands basically tied? Did the severity of the outbreak leave him no good choices?

I don't know much about Cuomo, but I'd assume any governor is trying to do his best under difficult circumstances.




My best guess is to say it never really reached Cuomo, a decision was made down the line probably to save money as nursing homes cost less than hospitals.

You probably could count on one hand the state administered nursing homes that could safely handle positive covid patients.


Harry S Truman had a sign on his desk "The buck stops here" and maybe some people need to remember that.
warspite1

I think that is very unfair. To blame a dead ex-President for the problems with New York nursing homes is wrong and I'm sure Mr Truman didn't mean to imply he would take responsibility for that......


[:D]




warspite1 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 2:38:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've barely followed this story until today. Looks grim. Did the governor have options or were his hands basically tied? Did the severity of the outbreak leave him no good choices?

I don't know much about Cuomo, but I'd assume any governor is trying to do his best under difficult circumstances.




My best guess is to say it never really reached Cuomo, a decision was made down the line probably to save money as nursing homes cost less than hospitals.

You probably could count on one hand the state administered nursing homes that could safely handle positive covid patients.


Harry S Truman had a sign on his desk "The buck stops here" and maybe some people need to remember that.
warspite1

I think that is very unfair. To blame a dead ex-President for the problems with New York nursing homes is wrong and I'm sure Mr Truman didn't mean to imply he would take responsibility for that......


[:D]
warspite1

Well at least you and HansBolter saw the funny side... I guess everyone's sense of humour is different [:)]




MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 2:54:52 PM)

Get tested for Coronavirus, show negative. Get infected 2 days later at work, store. home, etc.



Real time bio-monitoring?




mind_messing -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 2:56:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That battle is currently being fought o the national stage, too. There have been myriad proposals for legislation protecting businesses and other entities (charities, governments) from Covid-19 liability. The trial lawyers associations and their allies oppose that. As a general rule, that means Democrat leaders oppose it. But there is pressure on some of them to sign it to allow things to get up and running again. Very tough weighing of factors for all involved.

In addition to all the other fallout, there will be massive impacts on insurance companies (who bear the brunt of litigations costs for entities being sued). Personal and business bankruptcies will skyrocket.

Every which way you look, there are minefields.


There was a good statement from the Scottish First Minister a few weeks back to the effect that businesses can reopen, industry can grow back and the economy can be fixed, but dead people stay dead.

The measure strikes me as a reasonable one to ensure worker safety and that businesses will seriously consider appropriate precautions.




Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 3:09:24 PM)

That applies to every danger in life. If we are willing to isolate ourselves at home, no drunk driving, no seasonal flu transmission, presumably no sexually transmitted diseases or lightning strikes, etc.

There is a risk here, as with life in general. Everybody's trying to balance those risks. Total and indefinite lockdowns are not an option, at one end, and neither do people expect a near-term return to life as normal. Figuring out the optimal medium is what most are trying to do.




Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 3:14:55 PM)

Obvert isn't in the room, at the moment. He may be mowing the grass or painting a wall, but he mentioned Tuesday that Mrs. Obvert is due any minute now. Continued best wishes to the family.




MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 3:39:05 PM)

One of Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus
23 mins ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/one-of-trumps-personal-valets-has-tested-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB13KfOq?li=BBnb7Kz


"A member of the US Navy who serves as one of President Donald Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus, CNN has learned Thursday, raising concerns about the President's possible exposure to the virus.

The valets are members of an elite military unit dedicated to the White House and often work very close to the President and first family. Trump was upset when he was informed Wednesday that the valet had tested positive, a source told CNN, and he was subsequently tested again by the White House physician."




MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 3:42:48 PM)

Coronavirus: Is it time to free the healthy from restrictions?
7 May 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52543692



"But have we got this out of perspective? How much actual risk does coronavirus present?

The people who are most at risk are older people and those with pre-existing health conditions. The overwhelming majority of deaths has been among these groups.

But young people are, of course still, dying - by late April there had been more than 300 deaths among the under-45s.

What is more, there are many more who have been left seriously ill, struggling with the after-effects for weeks.

So how should we interpret that? And what does that mean for post-lockdown life? "





MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 3:59:58 PM)

Trump and some top aides question accuracy of virus death toll
22 hours ago

https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-death-toll-d8ba60a4-316b-4d1e-8595-74970c15fb34.html


"President Trump has complained to advisers about the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower — and a number of his senior aides share this view, according to sources with direct knowledge."


"Medicare is giving hospitals a 20% bonus for their treatment of coronavirus patients as a way to help them make up for the money they’re losing because they’ve had to postpone a lot of non-coronavirus care.
Intentionally misdiagnosing patients with coronavirus would be fraud, and so far no one in the administration has publicly leveled such an accusation. "




MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:05:27 PM)

Things more terrifying than Coronavirus:



An Asian Boy Band doing a cover of Blinded by the Light




Lowpe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:14:30 PM)

I don't remember if this was the case during 9/11. I think I would remember.

New York is Charging Samaritan’s Purse Income Tax After the Charity Worked for Free

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2020/may/new-york-is-charging-samaritan-rsquo-s-purse-income-tax-after-the-charity-worked-for-free




obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:15:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Interesting data point. This is a lagging indicator so it might best be used as a baseline of where were were at before lockdown and where we got to with restrictions. Again, a lagging indicator but in my limited experience it takes about 3 weeks for what we are actually doing to show up on the chart. So lets snap a chalk-line for May 7 https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/

A very interesting site. I like the presentation. The predictions are scary.




Lowpe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:17:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

industry can grow back and the economy can be fixed



In the long run, but then again in the long run we are all dead anyhow.




JohnDillworth -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:21:05 PM)



Thanks for providing the source.

quote:

So, this source is spot on with the current mortality in Georgia (and may have used it in modeling) and is somewhat more optimistic about the future for the state than IHME is.

Thanks for providing the source.


I just hope those numbers hold. Once they get above 1.0 you are heading in the wrong direction. Watch it day to day. They are creeping up. If you take NY State out of the countries total numbers things are not as good as I would like. It took a while but it got to the rural areas, who are probably not prepared to deal with it. Terrible whats happening in some of the meat packing towns. This thing loves lots of people crowded into small spaces.
Family is good. Got 3 students working out of the house so the Internet had to be upgraded to 400MPS. I live in a village in the suburbs on Long Island Sound so at least we have beaches to walk around. Had a couple of antibody tests. My wife and I are both negative, which is actually a bit disappointing but I guess if I got Covid I wouldn't think so
City is still figuring out how to come back to life. 911 calls are now back down to pre Covid levels but we have a 311 system that takes all non emergency calls for any services or City services. With everything shut 311 is getting slammed. We have added 200 call takers and are trying to keep up with capacity. We had them all over the City but just signed an emergency lease for 2 floors in lower Manhattan. No idea what comes next. We are installing plexiglass between desks at some locations with low cube walls. Didn't take long for he HR police to correct my language. They are not "Plexiglass" They are "Hygienic Barriers". What ever. We might try and bring a small percentage of folks back starting June 1 but that remains to be seen. The transit system is a mess NY isn't designed for everyone to drive to work. Crazy stuff. They can't keep up with the bodies so they fill up a trailer and move it to lot in Brooklyn. Every day another couple of trailers. I think they are freezing some of them. Can't get a cremation or burial for up to 6 weeks. I'm back to split shifts so I'm only on site every other day. It's been cold and wet here so people are generally staying inside but on the sunny warm days every one gets out. Glad I don't live in the inner city any more. Say safe




obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:25:30 PM)

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.




obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:25:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Obvert isn't in the room, at the moment. He may be mowing the grass or painting a wall, but he mentioned Tuesday that Mrs. Obvert is due any minute now. Continued best wishes to the family.


Thanks. Still waiting. Fingers crossed it's soon.




Lowpe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:32:15 PM)

I believe I found the owner of the worldometer website. I am looking for more confirmations, so far I have two but they site the same source.

https://dadax.cn/en/about-dadax/

which is far different than their website says...I don't know where the truth lies, probably somewhere between?

Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. It is published by a small and independent digital media company based in the United States. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation. Furthermore, we have no investors, donors, grants, or backers of any type. We are completely independent and self-financed through automated programmatic advertising sold in real time on multiple ad exchanges.

I am just not sure I can trust this:

Worldometer,[2] formerly Worldometers (plural), is a reference website that provides counters and real-time statistics for diverse topics. It is owned and operated by data company Dadax[3][4] which generates revenue through online advertising.[5]





Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:36:40 PM)

Ugg. Not very impressed with The Atlantic's analysis.

I haven't seen a single report associating Korea's success with some kind of racially negative analysis. Every report in here, and every thing I've seen outside, has associated its success with early detection and quick countermeasures. The insertion of racism allegations undermines the message and the author's credibility.

More than that, the author seems to draw flawed conclusions. The focal point of Korea's early outbreak was the church service in Daegu, as noted in The Atlantic story. That happened in February (see another version here: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/24/808914718/secretive-church-sect-at-the-center-of-south-koreas-coronavirus-outbreak). If that was the origin or the main point of genesis, the outbreak in Korea possibly happened later than in the US and may have had one primary point of ignition (the congregation in Daegu), facilitating efforts to contact trace, isolate and treat. By mid February, countries were much more on guard than in January and earlier. Primed to react. Not so in January. Heck, in January, nobody may have looked for Covid, thus completely missing diagnoses.

In contrast, the virus may have arrived in America at multiple unknown points earlier - January or perhaps before that. The arrival wasn't noticed, there was little if any chance that early to identify and contact trace, etc.

Very, very different scenarios. Korea has done well and is the envy of most every western nation. We should emulate, if possible. But comparing the genesis of the pandemic in the US to Korea, and tossing in racism allegations to boot, doesn't seem to have merit.

Captain Beefheart will hopefully weigh in with his thoughts.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.






JohnDillworth -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:42:18 PM)

quote:

A very interesting site. I like the presentation. The predictions are scary.

Curious to see what these look like in 2 or 3 weeks. If places that reopened have to lock down again it's not going to be good for morale.




Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:45:18 PM)

Right. That will be very hard.

That's one reason I've been following Denmark, Austria and Germany closely. Those countries began easing countermeasures as early as mid-April, thus far with no apparent serious problems. No nationwide spikes in deaths or new cases.

Georgia began easing countermeasures two weeks ago tomorrow. Thus far pretty much the same thing.




JohnDillworth -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:48:33 PM)

quote:

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.




HansBolter -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/7/2020 4:53:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.




Yes, Freedom comes with consequences and risks.

I, for one, hope we never become obedient drones.


and p.s.....if you felt the need to qualify up front that your weren't engaging in an attack then you probably were......




Page: <<   < prev  229 230 [231] 232 233   next >   >>

Valid CSS!




Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI
1.03125