RE: OT: Corona virus (Full Version)

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MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 3:36:22 PM)

Edward Bernays

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays



"Bernays organized a contingent of women to smoke cigarettes—"torches of freedom"—at the 1929 Easter Sunday parade in New York. The event was carefully scripted to promote the intended message."


"In the 1930s, his Dixie Cup campaign was designed to convince consumers that only disposable cups were sanitary by linking the imagery of an overflowing cup with subliminal images of vaginas and venereal disease."



Q-Ball -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 4:13:28 PM)

I now know 7 people in 3 different families who have COVID 19. Thankfully all are seemingly minor cases.

You know what they all have in common though? They were all stuck in customs at O'Hare Airport for 6+ hours last weekend because of a sudden order to screen for COVID 19. They were returning to US from different countries, but ended up in the same crowd. See attached picture; 7 people in this scrum were sick or got sick that I know of, so you know the actual count is much, much higher.

I'm sure the intentions were good--let's screen for COVID 19!--but if you are not smart about it you end up with this

Road to hell is paved with what?

[image]local://upfiles/6931/6AA081B1B9AB476E8090756A08E8A4A3.jpg[/image]



Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 4:21:36 PM)

Italian province table updated thru 3/19. Even though the percentage increases continue to be higher in the "south", it's important to recognize that 3/4 of all cases are found in only 4 northern provinces (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto & Piedmont), and the daily increase for those 4 has stayed around 12% in the 5 days I've been tracking this (and has actually ticked up 3 days in a row (see last row on the table).

We really want to see a noticeable decrease there, particularly in Lombardy, but so far it's just not happening.

Note: All percentages at the bottom of the table show changes from one day to the next. These are not overall numbers.

Pertinent links:

1) Daily Italian Stats by province here

2) Original post with regional map of Italy here

3) The 3/17 Update Post here

4) The 3/18 Update Post here

[image]local://upfiles/25668/A9EDC479A8B546D49D2AFAB3D7DEACC5.jpg[/image]



Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:08:08 PM)

Spain is the next train wreck. Today they moved into 3rd place in the world in terms of known cases (see attachment), but they've only tested 30,000 (they finally appeared in the wiki testing table today), substantially less than Italy's 182K.

This article talks about the state of testing in Spain. The tests they use take a long time to process, and while Spain has the ability to manufacture their own kits, they are dependent on parts from outside, and those sources are drying up. As a result, the testing guidelines specifically exclude using tests for contact tracing, so you can imagine what's coming.

[image]local://upfiles/25668/305A4CCA1FED4E1C9A06AE02706BEDB4.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:26:07 PM)

"Give me liberty, or give me death!"




"Take my liberty, I'am scared to death."



obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:41:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I now know 7 people in 3 different families who have COVID 19. Thankfully all are seemingly minor cases.

You know what they all have in common though? They were all stuck in customs at O'Hare Airport for 6+ hours last weekend because of a sudden order to screen for COVID 19. They were returning to US from different countries, but ended up in the same crowd. See attached picture; 7 people in this scrum were sick or got sick that I know of, so you know the actual count is much, much higher.

I'm sure the intentions were good--let's screen for COVID 19!--but if you are not smart about it you end up with this

Road to hell is paved with what?



That was before the ban on gatherings, so fine, right? [8|]

Amazing no one had that thought just looking at the crowd.



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:45:48 PM)

Continued bad news from Italy today (we're all pulling for you, Italy!)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/66114883474C41AB8B96F3CCEA099AF7.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:47:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Italian province table updated thru 3/19. Even though the percentage increases continue to be higher in the "south", it's important to recognize that 3/4 of all cases are found in only 4 northern provinces (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto & Piedmont), and the daily increase for those 4 has stayed around 12% in the 5 days I've been tracking this (and has actually ticked up 3 days in a row (see last row on the table).

We really want to see a noticeable decrease there, particularly in Lombardy, but so far it's just not happening.

Note: All percentages at the bottom of the table show changes from one day to the next. These are not overall numbers.

Pertinent links:

1) Daily Italian Stats by province here

2) Original post with regional map of Italy here

3) The 3/17 Update Post here

4) The 3/18 Update Post here



It looks like the testing numbers for Lombardy might be indicating that this region is approaching herd immunity levels. With 381/1000 tests positive, that should indicate a similar percentage or higher (mild or asymptomatic cases not being tested) actually have the virus.

If so the positive would be the Ro will soon be going down as more recover and become immune.



RFalvo69 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:52:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Italian province table updated thru 3/19. Even though the percentage increases continue to be higher in the "south", it's important to recognize that 3/4 of all cases are found in only 4 northern provinces (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto & Piedmont), and the daily increase for those 4 has stayed around 12% in the 5 days I've been tracking this (and has actually ticked up 3 days in a row (see last row on the table).

We really want to see a noticeable decrease there, particularly in Lombardy, but so far it's just not happening.

Note: All percentages at the bottom of the table show changes from one day to the next. These are not overall numbers.

Pertinent links:

1) Daily Italian Stats by province here

2) Original post with regional map of Italy here

3) The 3/17 Update Post here

4) The 3/18 Update Post here

[image]local://upfiles/25668/A9EDC479A8B546D49D2AFAB3D7DEACC5.jpg[/image]


Another worrying data point here is what it is happening in Calabria, my home region. For days and days the number of know cases stayed at 68 and looked contained. Now it is tripling.

Remember what we said about the ICU differences between the North and the rest of Italy? "Even an uptick can strain the fragile South". All of sudden the cases are tripling, with a daily trend upward - and I'm worried.



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:59:36 PM)

Before dawn, I drove 40 miles to meet a friend (a retired superior court judge) at a McDonalds in the small town of Chatsworth. The dining room was closed (statewide order now), so we got ours to go. Then we went to Fort Mountain State Park and hiked about four miles, including a craggy, steep bushwhack up the Goldmine Branch gorge. It was a lovely, mild morning. Lots of neotropical migrants are present and singing now, including Louisiana waterthrush, black-and-white warbler, black-throated-green warbler and yellow-throated warbler. Star chickweed, bloodroot, toadshade trillium and lots of other flowers in bloom. Everything lush and lovely and perfectly normal.

My friend has about the same level of concern about the virus as everyone else I've come across in Georgia. He mentioned the immense death toll of WWI exacerbated by the Spanish flu pandemic and wondered how the people endured such duel cataclysms and how we'd react today.

Athens/Clarke County (University of Georgia location) has issued a "shelter in home" edict until something like April 7. I think that county had six cases as of yesterday. That level of lock down isn't widespread in Georgia yet. It probably will be in the next day or two.

For what it's worth, I remain optimistic about the outcome of this. Many underlying numbers continue to look encouraging (in most places). The level of response, can-do attitude, cheerfulness of the populace, and quality of healthcare are most encouraging.

No doubt countries will continue ramping up production and sharing, with those that have plenty reaching out to those really struggling. All over.



obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 5:59:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Spain is the next train wreck. Today they moved into 3rd place in the world in terms of known cases (see attachment), but they've only tested 30,000 (they finally appeared in the wiki testing table today), substantially less than Italy's 182K.

This article talks about the state of testing in Spain. The tests they use take a long time to process, and while Spain has the ability to manufacture their own kits, they are dependent on parts from outside, and those sources are drying up. As a result, the testing guidelines specifically exclude using tests for contact tracing, so you can imagine what's coming.



Really too bad about Spain. I thought they had enough warning to get testing going, and prepare a bit. Crazy how fast this goes once it takes hold in a place. They're testing per million is where the UK was yesterday, but the UK has jumped a lot, yet positives/1000 are way lower than Spain.

I've been wondering if mortality numbers multiplied by 0.5% (low mortality estimate) might be a closer indicator of actual cases in the respective countries. For the UK today that would be 177. The resulting number would be 35,400 cases. Judging by the information that a fifteen fold increase in critical Covid cases are now coming into hospitals here, I'd say at least this and probably higher. This may get bad here soon too.






MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:07:07 PM)

Coronavirus death rate in Wuhan is lower than previously thought

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-death-rate-lower-thought-wuhan.html

"Past studies estimated that between 2% and 3.4 % of known cases died. But a new study found that the death rate in the city was around 1.4%, according to a study published today (March 19) in the journal Nature Medicine."



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:12:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Before dawn, I drove 40 miles to meet a friend (a retired superior court judge) at a McDonalds in the small town of Chatsworth. The dining room was closed (statewide order now), so we got ours to go. Then we went to Fort Mountain State Park and hiked about four miles, including a craggy, steep bushwhack up the Goldmine Branch gorge. It was a lovely, mild morning. Lots of neotropical migrants are present and singing now, including Louisiana waterthrush, black-and-white warbler, black-throated-green warbler and yellow-throated warbler. Star chickweed, bloodroot, toadshade trillium and lots of other flowers in bloom. Everything lush and lovely and perfectly normal.

My friend has about the same level of concern about the virus as everyone else I've come across in Georgia. He mentioned the immense death toll of WWI exacerbated by the Spanish flu pandemic and wondered how the people endured such duel cataclysms and how we'd react today.

Athens/Clarke County (University of Georgia location) has issued a "shelter in home" edict until something like April 7. I think that county had six cases as of yesterday. That level of lock down isn't widespread in Georgia yet. It probably will be in the next day or two.

For what it's worth, I remain optimistic about the outcome of this. Many underlying numbers continue to look encouraging (in most places). The level of response, can-do attitude, cheerfulness of the populace, and quality of healthcare are most encouraging.

No doubt countries will continue ramping up production and sharing, with those that have plenty reaching out to those really struggling. All over.



My woods along the river bank are carpeted in Virginia Blue Bells. Stinging Nettle will be up soon - That's good food and medicine. Everyday I hear new bird songs.



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:15:07 PM)

More than 70% of Coronavirus deaths in Italy are men and scientists admit they are 'mystified' by the disparity between genders


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8135211/More-70-coronavirus-deaths-Italy-men.html


"At least 3,400 people in Italy have died of the devastating disease - it yesterday announced it had a higher death toll than China - but less than 1,000 of them have been women"



I use to joke that "they" would release a virus that would kill just men.



alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:34:45 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R
So basically your point is you think the current trend will continue and follow a different pattern to the past, so deaths will climb, whereas mine is that past performance is the best predictor of the immediate future, and if the current spike patterns in the same way as the Western pacific (China) spike, Europe numbers are about to go over the azimuth and decline, with the US about 2 weeks behind.


I hope you're right. But you mentioned a statistical analysis and I see no basis for that based on the rate of growth of death rates at the moment. It still appears to be accelerating too.

quote:

I actually think that the spike will be less because of precautionary measures and the better health facilities affordably available to the public in North America and Europe. I will leave it to the Americans to debate if that last proviso applies there.


How will the spike be less when it is already higher? Almost 30% of the total deaths recorded have come in the last 3 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

[image]local://upfiles/23363/4B50E3D1EBA24A4682103CA6E2994A63.jpg[/image]

The last time there was changes of 10%+ was February 14th when global exposure was much, much less and death rates themselves much lower which makes them more susceptible to noise.

Especially with news that UK hospitals are now turning away patients and Spain now converting hotels into hospitals to address capacity.

quote:

I also looked at a comparison of population figures to cases in more equatorial countries, and it looks like C19 is not having an impact in at least 6 of the 10 most populous countries in the world. Which are all ... near the equator. If that is a true indicator, than C19 has nowhere else to go.


It is definitely good that things don't seem to be particularly global and those countries don't seem to be heavily affected. But since they aren't impacting numbers it's not actually relevant to examining the current trends in changes to daily deaths.




MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:36:05 PM)

So what is the survivability rate, ~97%



[image]local://upfiles/55056/25612EE2DCEC45E5A1425AAA85DCA80F.jpg[/image]



warspite1 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:36:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

More than 70% of Coronavirus deaths in Italy are men and scientists admit they are 'mystified' by the disparity between genders

"At least 3,400 people in Italy have died - but less than 1,000 of them have been women"

warspite1

Maybe it's the large lungs they have


[image]local://upfiles/28156/0889EDFEDF5E41EE9168C7937DE76F0F.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:37:42 PM)

I'm no expert on UK, but I doubt they are turning away serious virus cases. They might be turning down elective surgery and non-significant illnesses and injuries, but I can't imagine UK hospitals don't have sufficient capacity to handle current cases.



warspite1 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:44:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm no expert on UK, but I doubt they are turning away serious virus cases. They might be turning down elective surgery and non-significant illnesses and injuries, but I can't imagine UK hospitals don't have sufficient capacity to handle current cases.
warspite1

Northwick Park in North London has confirmed it's run out of ICU beds. I don't think the Government would have announced what it did today unless they suspect we are on the verge of something much worse.



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 6:48:03 PM)

How is the impact hitting, Warspite? The Worldometers website details about 4k cases in the UK right now. Presumably, not all of those cases are hospitalized (or are they?). Is that number sufficient to fill the remaining capacity at that hospital and other hospitals? Or is UK looking ahead? Or is it something different?




Encircled -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 7:06:45 PM)

I'm hoping that the extra weeks we have had mean that the NHS plan is ready, but as has already been mentioned, our government changed tact last week on its plan (when the studies revealed 250,000 deaths) and we all fear that time could cost us.

On the positive side, very good economic stimulus plan unveiled today which should mean all that people have to worry about is getting through this.



warspite1 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 7:14:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How is the impact hitting, Warspite? The Worldometers website details about 4k cases in the UK right now. Presumably, not all of those cases are hospitalized (or are they?). Is that number sufficient to fill the remaining capacity at that hospital and other hospitals? Or is UK looking ahead? Or is it something different?


warspite1

I don't claim to have insider knowledge and am just getting info from (hopefully accurate) sources I can. However, London is being hit more than its share of population and I guess this will have an impact. I have heard of no other hospital in that position and so for now I would hope that surplus are being transferred to other London (or maybe Home Counties) hospitals. Remember too the stat about relative number of specialist care beds. The UK was pretty low on that table.



alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 7:21:12 PM)

Here's a link reporting on it.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8134277/Two-London-hospitals-admit-turning-away-coronavirus-patients.html



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 7:25:08 PM)

Yeah, I wasn't thinking you had inside knowledge or anything. I was hoping to make sense of the numbers since it seems unexpected.

To my knowledge, Germany with 5x or 6x UK's cases hasn't yet reported ICU shortages. I haven't heard yet of any western country other than Italy that is overwhelmed at this relatively early point in the cycle. Ditto with New York, which has 2x UK's cases.



Sammy5IsAlive -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 7:28:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

More than 70% of Coronavirus deaths in Italy are men and scientists admit they are 'mystified' by the disparity between genders


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8135211/More-70-coronavirus-deaths-Italy-men.html


"At least 3,400 people in Italy have died of the devastating disease - it yesterday announced it had a higher death toll than China - but less than 1,000 of them have been women"



I use to joke that "they" would release a virus that would kill just men.


Looking at this I wanted to see if there was any big difference in overall life expectancies between Men and Women in Italy, comparative to other countries. Basically there isn't - overall Italy has one of the highest life expectancies in the world and there is the typical c.4-5 year advantage for females.

I was looking at this site https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/world-health-rankings and whilst nothing of note came up in terms of what I went to look for there is a wealth of other information. I'll let people have a browse themselves for comparisons of their own interest but just a few things I observed:

Worrying point (or perhaps not?) - Italy's death rate/100k for influenza and pneumonia is one of the best in the world - the rate in the UK is almost 3x higher (8.15 vs 23.01) and I couldn't find a European country worse. The US is roughly in between at 14.91. Spain is 10.21. If you wanted to look at it from a more optimistic viewpoint (from a UK perspective at least) you might wonder whether these differences reflect differences in exposure rather than difference in resilience. In which case Italy and Spain's low death rate might paradoxically give an explanation as to why they are struggling more. Further support for that was when I looked in passing at Japan - who seem to have been doing well - where influenza/pneumonia death rates are even higher than in the UK (34.54) and indeed is their second highest cause of death behind coronary heart disease

Interesting specifics - China has one of the highest death rates in the world for lung disease (not including cancers). Diabetes death rates are higher in Italy than in other European countries and China, although slightly lower than in the US

Interesting general point - going off the cases/1m population from the table above, the three countries proportionately most affected at this point are Italy, Spain and Switzerland. As above Italy has the 8th highest LE in the world. Spain is #3 whilst Switzerland is #2. So I started wondering about a pattern until Japan threw a spanner in the works again by taking the top spot of the highest LE in the world. For reference the US and UK are at #34 and #22 respectively.

Worrying and depressing point - when you are browsing through the numbers it really draws into focus the stark contrast between health outcomes in the 'first' and 'third' worlds. For a start you wouldn't even immediately think of South Africa as being the latter but their death rate for Influenza/Pneumonia is 86.33. Even more worryingly the death rate for HIV/AIDs is 273.12 [:(]. In general looking at African countries the latter gives great cause for concern given the implications for large proportions of the population having compromised immune systems. In many of the countries influenza/pneumonia go from being around 8-10 in the list of causes of death in European countries to being in the top 5 and often in the top 3. The hope really has to be that their climate is too warm for the virus to survive and transmit because otherwise the numbers of deaths will be appalling I think.



Sammy5IsAlive -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 7:32:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How is the impact hitting, Warspite? The Worldometers website details about 4k cases in the UK right now. Presumably, not all of those cases are hospitalized (or are they?). Is that number sufficient to fill the remaining capacity at that hospital and other hospitals? Or is UK looking ahead? Or is it something different?




I think the large majority of the UK cases will have been hospitalized - my understanding is that at the moment that is the only context that a member of the public will be offered a test (at least by the NHS - I assume that the footballers etc. who have been diagnosed will have had tests administered separately by their clubs). The WHO are not happy with us for not testing more :(



alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 7:45:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I think the large majority of the UK cases will have been hospitalized - my understanding is that at the moment that is the only context that a member of the public will be offered a test (at least by the NHS - I assume that the footballers etc. who have been diagnosed will have had tests administered separately by their clubs). The WHO are not happy with us for not testing more :(


I wouldn't be surprised if, in the early days for most countries, most cases are hospitalized because the severity of illness is what alerts people to testing.

It makes me think a place like Germany is an outlier in that they ramped up their testing pretty quickly.





obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 8:07:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How is the impact hitting, Warspite? The Worldometers website details about 4k cases in the UK right now. Presumably, not all of those cases are hospitalized (or are they?). Is that number sufficient to fill the remaining capacity at that hospital and other hospitals? Or is UK looking ahead? Or is it something different?




I think the large majority of the UK cases will have been hospitalized - my understanding is that at the moment that is the only context that a member of the public will be offered a test (at least by the NHS - I assume that the footballers etc. who have been diagnosed will have had tests administered separately by their clubs). The WHO are not happy with us for not testing more :(


The UK didn't start really seriously testing until this week. Last week it was 2k per day. Now they're talking 25k per day. It jumped dramatically since yesterday from something like 600+/million to 832/million. Boris also stated they were trying to acquire the test for antibodies to see who had recovered, never having been tested.

Previously they only tested those with symptoms who had been somewhere of risk. This of course denied the risk of community transmission, which was already well underway.

Again, as stated above, I think the UK is closer to 35-40k cases now, based on a 0.5% mortality rate and the 177 deaths so far.

If that's true then it's LOT of hospital beds needed soon. Say even 5% hospitalisation and you get 1,750, the majority in London.



obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 8:11:21 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

More than 70% of Coronavirus deaths in Italy are men and scientists admit they are 'mystified' by the disparity between genders


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8135211/More-70-coronavirus-deaths-Italy-men.html


"At least 3,400 people in Italy have died of the devastating disease - it yesterday announced it had a higher death toll than China - but less than 1,000 of them have been women"

I use to joke that "they" would release a virus that would kill just men.


I'd guess this is more of a social gender difference with men covering more territory, spending more time out of the home, and seeing more people. There may also be the bravado/carelessness that they wouldn't be affected. In general when you hear or see of those now breaking curfew, the majority are men.

This is mostly old men, but men in general are more risk-taking than women.



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/20/2020 8:29:01 PM)

With testing really ramping up in a bunch of places, the number of active cases should shoot through the roof. Mortality figures will be far more reliable in measuring the extent and severity of the virus, for some time.



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