RE: The question to ask about The Italians (Full Version)

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IslandInland -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/8/2020 11:48:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Better yet would be Hitler dropping dead on 21 August 1939.
warspite1

Or 20th April 1889...



^

This.

Bar none the best post in this entire thread of strategy-wanking.








Zorch -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 12:01:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

'The question to ask about The Italians'...is how far away from Italy this thread can possibly go.
warspite1

To which of course the answer is - not very. We are looking at a Med-first strategy and so Italy is going to be pretty central to a lot of the discussion (should the thread continue).


That is true, but you all should be able to agree about something after 540 posts. Instead there appears to be a diverging lack of consensus typical of internet arguments. [8|]

Issues:

1. What is the impact of delaying Barbarossa to pursue a Med-first strategy (including Japan's intentions)?

2. What is the German chance (%) to take Gibraltar (a) with Spain's help; b) without Spain's help (with political fallout)?

3. What is USSR reaction to a German move into Turkey? a)Turkey fights; b)Turkey goes along with it

4. Mussolini's attitude to all this, including to German 'help' in improving Italy's armed forces

5. USA response to Spain and Turkey (I assume the British response is predictable)

Did I miss anything?




IslandInland -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 12:08:38 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

'The question to ask about The Italians'...is how far away from Italy this thread can possibly go.
warspite1

To which of course the answer is - not very. We are looking at a Med-first strategy and so Italy is going to be pretty central to a lot of the discussion (should the thread continue).


That is true, but you all should be able to agree about something after 540 posts. Instead there appears to be a diverging lack of consensus typical of internet arguments. [8|]

Issues:

1. What is the impact of delaying Barbarossa to pursue a Med-first strategy (including Japan's intentions)?

2. What is the German chance (%) to take Gibraltar (a) with Spain's help; b) without Spain's help (with political fallout)?

3. What is USSR reaction to a German move into Turkey? a)Turkey fights; b)Turkey goes along with it

4. Mussolini's attitude to all this, including to German 'help' in improving Italy's armed forces

5. USA response to Spain and Turkey (I assume the British response is predictable)

Did I miss anything?



6th August 1945 the Axis lose the war. Hiroshima or Berlin or another German city it makes no difference.

Ultimately they lose and the Allies win.

Damn, I'm getting drawn in to the strategy-wanking.

[:)]




gamer78 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 1:25:38 AM)

quote:


3. What is USSR reaction to a German move into Turkey? a)Turkey fights; b)Turkey goes along with it



You mean by 'goes along with it' they won't fight it will be a mistake. [:)] Remember Greeks official independence(1830) They formed their own militia against Ottomans. And with an ultimatum from nazi they still continue to fight against all odds in WW'2. A bit sympathy from' İttihat Terakki tradition' between Germany and Turkey doesn't mean sympathy will remain when German soldiers in Anatolia. They will be enemies.




Zorch -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 1:47:53 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gamer78

quote:


3. What is USSR reaction to a German move into Turkey? a)Turkey fights; b)Turkey goes along with it



You mean by 'goes along with it' they won't fight it will be a mistake. [:)] Remember Greeks official independence(1830) They formed their own militia against Ottomans. And with an ultimatum from nazi they still continue to fight against all odds in WW'2. A bit sympathy from' İttihat Terakki tradition' between Germany and Turkey doesn't mean sympathy will remain when German soldiers in Anatolia. They will be enemies.

You misunderstand; I'm not saying that Turkey will or won't resist. I'm asking whether the people in this thread agree about this issue.




Platoonist -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 1:53:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: IslandInland



6th August 1945 the Axis lose the war. Hiroshima or Berlin or another German city it makes no difference.

Ultimately they lose and the Allies win.
[:)]


Yes, but you see before then, Hitler by utilizing his conquered resources, will have deployed his orbiting heat-ray wunderwaffe and both the Oak Ridge and Hanford atomic facilities would just be smoldering cinders...and...and...

quote:

Damn, I'm getting drawn in to the stategy-wanking

You're right. Might be thread ejection time before I even get off the ground.. [X(]

[img]https://www.digopaul.com/wp-content/uploads/related_images/2015/09/09/eject_2.jpg[/img]






IslandInland -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 1:59:53 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Platoonist


quote:

ORIGINAL: IslandInland



6th August 1945 the Axis lose the war. Hiroshima or Berlin or another German city it makes no difference.

Ultimately they lose and the Allies win.
[:)]


Yes, but you see before then, Hitler by utilizing his conquered resources, will have deployed his orbiting heat-ray wunderwaffe and both the Oak Ridge and Hanford atomic facilities would just be smoldering cinders...and...and...

quote:

Damn, I'm getting drawn in to the stategy-wanking

You're right. Might be thread ejection time before I even get off the ground.. [X(]

[img]https://www.digopaul.com/wp-content/uploads/related_images/2015/09/09/eject_2.jpg[/img]







[:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]





gamer78 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 2:32:43 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: gamer78

quote:


3. What is USSR reaction to a German move into Turkey? a)Turkey fights; b)Turkey goes along with it



You mean by 'goes along with it' they won't fight it will be a mistake. [:)] Remember Greeks official independence(1830) They formed their own militia against Ottomans. And with an ultimatum from nazi they still continue to fight against all odds in WW'2. A bit sympathy from' İttihat Terakki tradition' between Germany and Turkey doesn't mean sympathy will remain when German soldiers in Anatolia. They will be enemies.

You misunderstand; I'm not saying that Turkey will or won't resist. I'm asking whether the people in this thread agree about this issue.


Yes I also wonder -if it's about it- How and when will USSR have reaction. Stalin probably has distance to Turkey (İsmet Inönü) more than Lenin and Voroshilov.
Cheers.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 2:59:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

'The question to ask about The Italians'...is how far away from Italy this thread can possibly go.
warspite1

To which of course the answer is - not very. We are looking at a Med-first strategy and so Italy is going to be pretty central to a lot of the discussion (should the thread continue).


That is true, but you all should be able to agree about something after 540 posts. Instead there appears to be a diverging lack of consensus typical of internet arguments. [8|]

Issues:

1. What is the impact of delaying Barbarossa to pursue a Med-first strategy (including Japan's intentions)?

2. What is the German chance (%) to take Gibraltar (a) with Spain's help; b) without Spain's help (with political fallout)?

3. What is USSR reaction to a German move into Turkey? a)Turkey fights; b)Turkey goes along with it

4. Mussolini's attitude to all this, including to German 'help' in improving Italy's armed forces

5. USA response to Spain and Turkey (I assume the British response is predictable)

Did I miss anything?

warspite1

I think there is some limited consensus, although in the main there is much that we can't agree on. I guess ultimately we are talking about a 'what-if' that is itself, difficult to reconcile i.e. Hitler agreeing to postpone Barbarossa.

There are two ways of trying to make Hitler's non-historical move work; try and build some kind of 'believable' framework within which Hitler could be persuaded to undertake a Med-first strategy, or alternatively one can simply throw out the window what we know of personalities, context, thought process at the time etc etc and just adopt an Axis fanbois dream scenario. I'm not really interested in the latter, but I'm curious about the former.

You've mentioned five points above, but you've missed the one that kicks all this off - and one that Curtis Lemay refuses to expand upon even though this is his scenario. Hitler has been persuaded to move south (a major volte face but let's go with it). Is it really feasible that the UK is left alone, completely untouched, while the Luftwaffe 'demonstrate' (whatever that means)?

Let's be honest no, it's most unlikely, but we know why he doesn't want to agree to that. We know that any Luftwaffe attempt to attack the UK by air will fail - and moreover will be costly. That doesn't fit his scenario.

I've asked for thoughts but suspect that there is insufficient interest in the topic to get any response - which is fair enough. But that is fine, Curtis Lemay's scenario has piqued my interest and I will continue to post.




IslandInland -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:08:01 AM)

People, stop strategy-wanking...

just r e l a x

, , , , , ,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yem_iEHiyJ0

[8D]





Zovs -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 11:29:18 AM)

So forgive my ignorance, but 'what if' (I know that Hitler liked the British and it was not even in his wheelhouse, but bear with me) Hitler actually listened to his military and decided that the best way to take out Russia was to first take out England. Besides Goering's stupidity, how would have Hitler and his high command (maybe he sacks Goering) actually planned a three part invasion. The Low Countries, France and then England?

We know historically that the Germans were able to take out the Low Countries and France, and if Hitler had not meddled with the drive on the channel maybe some of those French and British troops would have been captured. Now if they (the German High Command) had realistic plans in place to actually invade England, why could they have not done so?

I think (mainly based on some history and a lot of wargames) that Spain would have been even more pro-axis if German had taken out England. The downside I think is that Stalin would most likely invaded Poland in the summer of 1942 or at least had his defenses in order to stop any German offensive or at least mitigate it down so it was not a complete disaster of the summer of 1941.

I am currently trying to play this particular scenario out (originally I started with the 1940 scenario but when back to the 1939 scenario) in Computer War in Europe 2 (CWIE2). The main problem with my 'sandbox' is I am playing all 3 sides and I know what I am trying to do...




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 12:24:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

So forgive my ignorance, but 'what if' (I know that Hitler liked the British and it was not even in his wheelhouse, but bear with me) Hitler actually listened to his military and decided that the best way to take out Russia was to first take out England. Besides Goering's stupidity, how would have Hitler and his high command (maybe he sacks Goering) actually planned a three part invasion. The Low Countries, France and then England?

We know historically that the Germans were able to take out the Low Countries and France, and if Hitler had not meddled with the drive on the channel maybe some of those French and British troops would have been captured. Now if they (the German High Command) had realistic plans in place to actually invade England, why could they have not done so?

warspite1

Well when you say listened to his military, it depends who you mean. Goering and Raeder thought the plan was nuts, it was only some sections of the army that thought Sea Lion was no more than a wide river crossing.

Goering was completely disinterested in an invasion and was happy to undertake BoB because he thought his Luftwaffe would destroy Fighter Command regardless (which is why the idea of 'demonstrating' rather than attacking the British is so unrealistic).

Raeder, iirc, wasn't even invited to the conference in which Hitler committed the Kriegsmarine to delivering a broad front landing....

When you consider what it took the Allies to plan, launch and successfully execute Overlord, it puts into perspective the comic opera that was the German High Command on the subject of Sea Lion.

Sea Lion would require complete inter-service co-operation, it would require things to go right, for contingency planning etc etc. What Germany had in reality was two branches out of three that didn't believe in the project and one that did, didn't seem to understand the complexity - or at least took it too lightly.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:20:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: UP844

This 1921 map, taken from the Wiki entry about Spanish railways, shows another rail link on the Mediterranean coast, but - as Warspite pointed out - using it would have meant to pass through Vichy territory and, moreover, it would have implied having a much longer - and even more vulnerable to Royal Navy attacks - supply line to any forces attacking from the north.

[image]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e3/Map_of_the_portuguese_and_spanish_railways.jpg/800px-Map_of_the_portuguese_and_spanish_railways.jpg[/image]

One point on this: Note that there are multiple rail lines once you get past the constriction point at the border. So, handling rail traffic can only be an issue in that one place - much simpler to address than if it was all the way to Madrid.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:25:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: UP844

This 1921 map, taken from the Wiki entry about Spanish railways, shows another rail link on the Mediterranean coast, but - as Warspite pointed out - using it would have meant to pass through Vichy territory and, moreover, it would have implied having a much longer - and even more vulnerable to Royal Navy attacks - supply line to any forces attacking from the north.

[image]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e3/Map_of_the_portuguese_and_spanish_railways.jpg/800px-Map_of_the_portuguese_and_spanish_railways.jpg[/image]

One point on this: Note that there are multiple rail lines once you get past the constriction point at the border. So, handling rail traffic can only be an issue in that one place - much simpler to address than if it was all the way to Madrid.
warspite1

Well just about everything I've read about Spain post the Civil War mentions the damage caused to the infrastructure and transport links. This is a nice pretty map - but I wonder how many rail lines were up and running, I wonder how much rolling stock and locomotives were actually in service.

This is another example of you wanting, from Germany's point of view, the good (the armed forces are in no fit state to fight) but won't take any bad (the country's infrastructure and services have been devastated).




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:29:07 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Here's SPI's shot of the Balkans:

Note the terrain is much tougher than Spain and no better than Turkey. Claims that the Germans have never faced anything but flat tank country are false.

[image]local://upfiles/14086/19BC131891834F278D81172BE94BC0BC.jpg[/image]
warspite1

Certainly not a claim I've made, but regardless, the terrain being tougher is not necessarily true (interestingly the GR/D map appears considerably less hilly than the SPI version).

As has been said before, look at the short distance that the Axis troops needed to travel - remember the Germans attacked the poor Yugoslavs from Germany, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, while the Italians came at the Yugoslavs from Italy and Albania. They were almost completely surrounded. It was not the one axis of attack that confronts the Germans in Spain. The supply lines were longer. There were no mountains or hills that blocked the path to the capital from the north either.


Distance to Madrid from the border was 12 hexes. To Athens from the border is also 12 hexes. That's without going through Yugoslavia first, of course. Hills all the way in Greece. Not so in Spain.

I'll note here that my Spain map shot is post 401 on page 14, and my Turkey map shot is post 386 on page 13.




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:36:37 PM)

If Germany would have taken out the BEF at Dunkirk with the Panzers, then taken out some armour for refitting, had the paratroopers refitted, then a surprise push across the Channel may have worked. The paratroopers in transports form up like a bomber force attacking England behind a real bomber force hitting the radar installations and the fighter air bases, then a quick paradrop to capture at least one airfield. Or do so just as dawn is breaking so the RAF Fighter Command has little daylight to react to it. Gliders, if available, loaded with light armour and artillery with prime movers with a few barges loaded and coming across the channel to grab some beach front property.

The air base would have fuel, supplies, and ground personnel for Luftwaffe planes that need help but they don't need to be based there, just stage them from France and top off the fighters fuel cells. This would effectively enhance their range, provide more time over the target, avoid the Channel radars, and hopefully save air crews from capture from aircraft that would otherwise be lost over the Channel.

The ground troops would consolidate their positions and enhance them. They would move out and try to get at least one airbase away from the coast so it would not be under Naval bombardment. More troops, supplies, and equipment would be flown in to increase their lodgement. If necessary, Luftwaffe bombers could also bring in supplies or just paradrop them although they might be needed as flying artillery.

With mines laid in a corridor in the Channel with U-boats and E-boats, that could hamper the RN a little bit. Especially if the Kriegsmarine staged a breakout attempt with some heavy surface raiders to distract the Royal Navy. Then the Royal Navy may be out of position.

If Little Bennie wanted in, Italy should have consulted with Germany and arranged plans for Gibralter, Malta, and the Suez/Port Said. Troops coming ashore from ships docked at Port Said with at least one ship ready to be sunk in the Canal to block it. A small invasion force appearing to be troops deploying to North Afrika with a diversion during the night to Malta. Troops coming ashore or disembarking from ships at The Rock. All done within an hour of an Italian declaration of war, in fact once the declaration had been given to the United Kingdom, then Benito goes on the air which is the notice for disembarking of the invasion forces. Only a few people in the highest command levels need to be aware of what is happening.





Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:41:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Well just about everything I've read about Spain post the Civil War mentions the damage caused to the infrastructure and transport links. This is a nice pretty map - but I wonder how many rail lines were up and running, I wonder how much rolling stock and locomotives were actually in service.

This is another example of you wanting, from Germany's point of view, the good (the armed forces are in no fit state to fight) but won't take any bad (the country's infrastructure and services have been devastated).


Of course they would have to repair the rail lines.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:48:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

You've mentioned five points above, but you've missed the one that kicks all this off - and one that Curtis Lemay refuses to expand upon even though this is his scenario. Hitler has been persuaded to move south (a major volte face but let's go with it). Is it really feasible that the UK is left alone, completely untouched, while the Luftwaffe 'demonstrate' (whatever that means)?

Let's be honest no, it's most unlikely, but we know why he doesn't want to agree to that. We know that any Luftwaffe attempt to attack the UK by air will fail - and moreover will be costly. That doesn't fit his scenario.

I've asked for thoughts but suspect that there is insufficient interest in the topic to get any response - which is fair enough. But that is fine, Curtis Lemay's scenario has piqued my interest and I will continue to post.


I've said from the getgo that there will be no BoB. I still think that just the presence of the huge force left on the channel border, the accumulation of barges, and any sort of activity by the remaining Luftwaffe will be enough to prevent the British from committing more than a token force to Spain. Regardless, even if the entire British army on Britain is committed, there will then be no threat left for France, and most of what was on the channel can be committed to Spain.




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:51:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Here's SPI's shot of the Balkans:

Note the terrain is much tougher than Spain and no better than Turkey. Claims that the Germans have never faced anything but flat tank country are false.

[image]local://upfiles/14086/19BC131891834F278D81172BE94BC0BC.jpg[/image]
warspite1

Certainly not a claim I've made, but regardless, the terrain being tougher is not necessarily true (interestingly the GR/D map appears considerably less hilly than the SPI version).

As has been said before, look at the short distance that the Axis troops needed to travel - remember the Germans attacked the poor Yugoslavs from Germany, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, while the Italians came at the Yugoslavs from Italy and Albania. They were almost completely surrounded. It was not the one axis of attack that confronts the Germans in Spain. The supply lines were longer. There were no mountains or hills that blocked the path to the capital from the north either.


Distance to Madrid from the border was 12 hexes. To Athens from the border is also 12 hexes. That's without going through Yugoslavia first, of course. Hills all the way in Greece. Not so in Spain.

I'll note here that my Spain map shot is post 401 on page 14, and my Turkey map shot is post 386 on page 13.


Hills. Are they steep or gently rolling? Are you moving between them or do you have to go over them and capture them? There is a difference. Do you know the difference? Have you any experience climbing hills with full field equipment?

If you drive a tank up a hill, the defenders can see and shoot at the lightly armoured belly. They can also have an easier time throwing gas bombs on the top of them not to mention shooting at the weak top armour or even into the engine compartment. Not to mention open topped vehicles like half tracks full of troops. German barbeque anyone?




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:53:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Here's SPI's shot of the Balkans:

Note the terrain is much tougher than Spain and no better than Turkey. Claims that the Germans have never faced anything but flat tank country are false.

[image]local://upfiles/14086/19BC131891834F278D81172BE94BC0BC.jpg[/image]
warspite1

Certainly not a claim I've made, but regardless, the terrain being tougher is not necessarily true (interestingly the GR/D map appears considerably less hilly than the SPI version).

As has been said before, look at the short distance that the Axis troops needed to travel - remember the Germans attacked the poor Yugoslavs from Germany, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, while the Italians came at the Yugoslavs from Italy and Albania. They were almost completely surrounded. It was not the one axis of attack that confronts the Germans in Spain. The supply lines were longer. There were no mountains or hills that blocked the path to the capital from the north either.


Distance to Madrid from the border was 12 hexes. To Athens from the border is also 12 hexes. That's without going through Yugoslavia first, of course. Hills all the way in Greece. Not so in Spain.

I'll note here that my Spain map shot is post 401 on page 14, and my Turkey map shot is post 386 on page 13.
warspite1

Okay so you've ignored Yugoslavia (no acknowledgement that you were wrong there) and now you are going for Greece. Going through Yugoslavia? Again you miss the key points. The Germans also attacked from Bulgaria too. The Greeks, facing the Italian in Albania were suddenly facing an enemy in the rear.

The Greeks in the northwest were supplied from Salonika, once this port was taken - and the terrain is not defender friendly - then the Greeks were in trouble.

From The German Campaign in the Balkans

According to military doctrine the mountainous terrain of Greece would seem ideally suited for defense. The high ranges of the Rhodope, Epirus, Pindus, and Olympus Mountains offer many possibilities to stop an invader. However, the defender must have sufficient air power, if the many defiles are not to become traps for his ground forces.

Whereas an invader thrusting from Albania can be stopped with relatively small forces in the high Pindus Mountains, the northeastern part of the country is difficult to defend against an attack from the north. Eastern Macedonia and western Thrace are narrow strips of land that can be cut off from the rest of Greece by an advance following the course of the Vardar River. Salonika, the only efficient port in northern Greece, is situated within this vulnerable area. The supply system of the Greek forces fighting in Albania was based on Salonika. The capture of the port would cut their supply lines and isolate them in their exposed positions. Since a voluntary withdrawal of the Greek forces in Albania was not feasible and Salonika was practically indefensible, the Greek and British commands resigned themselves to fighting a delaying action in the northeastern part of the country. The British fully realized the vulnerability of the Greek border defense system; it was bound to collapse in the event of a German thrust between the Strimon and Vardar Rivers. However, they let the Greeks have their way without taking the logical step of moving their forces up to the frontier into the sector west of the Metaxas Line.

Why do you keep missing fundamentally important points?




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:54:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Well just about everything I've read about Spain post the Civil War mentions the damage caused to the infrastructure and transport links. This is a nice pretty map - but I wonder how many rail lines were up and running, I wonder how much rolling stock and locomotives were actually in service.

This is another example of you wanting, from Germany's point of view, the good (the armed forces are in no fit state to fight) but won't take any bad (the country's infrastructure and services have been devastated).


Of course they would have to repair the rail lines.
warspite1

Who? When?




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 3:58:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

You've mentioned five points above, but you've missed the one that kicks all this off - and one that Curtis Lemay refuses to expand upon even though this is his scenario. Hitler has been persuaded to move south (a major volte face but let's go with it). Is it really feasible that the UK is left alone, completely untouched, while the Luftwaffe 'demonstrate' (whatever that means)?

Let's be honest no, it's most unlikely, but we know why he doesn't want to agree to that. We know that any Luftwaffe attempt to attack the UK by air will fail - and moreover will be costly. That doesn't fit his scenario.

I've asked for thoughts but suspect that there is insufficient interest in the topic to get any response - which is fair enough. But that is fine, Curtis Lemay's scenario has piqued my interest and I will continue to post.


I've said from the getgo that there will be no BoB. I still think that just the presence of the huge force left on the channel border, the accumulation of barges, and any sort of activity by the remaining Luftwaffe will be enough to prevent the British from committing more than a token force to Spain. Regardless, even if the entire British army on Britain is committed, there will then be no threat left for France, and most of what was on the channel can be committed to Spain.
warspite1

But you are totally missing the point. WHY is there no BoB? We know why it happened in real life - and it wasn't because of Sea Lion, which Goering couldn't give a fig about. So for BoB not to happen in your scenario you are, once again and for no purpose (other than Axis fanboisism), making Goering into a completely different animal.

As said, if you want to play total fantasy why not war game the LoTR vs GoT? There has to be a measure of realism or what's the point?




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 4:02:20 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

You've mentioned five points above, but you've missed the one that kicks all this off - and one that Curtis Lemay refuses to expand upon even though this is his scenario. Hitler has been persuaded to move south (a major volte face but let's go with it). Is it really feasible that the UK is left alone, completely untouched, while the Luftwaffe 'demonstrate' (whatever that means)?

Let's be honest no, it's most unlikely, but we know why he doesn't want to agree to that. We know that any Luftwaffe attempt to attack the UK by air will fail - and moreover will be costly. That doesn't fit his scenario.

I've asked for thoughts but suspect that there is insufficient interest in the topic to get any response - which is fair enough. But that is fine, Curtis Lemay's scenario has piqued my interest and I will continue to post.


I've said from the getgo that there will be no BoB. I still think that just the presence of the huge force left on the channel border, the accumulation of barges, and any sort of activity by the remaining Luftwaffe will be enough to prevent the British from committing more than a token force to Spain. Regardless, even if the entire British army on Britain is committed, there will then be no threat left for France, and most of what was on the channel can be committed to Spain.
warspite1

....is a total cop out. 'Any sort of activity'? KanalKampf was 'any sort of activity' wasn't it? And what did Dowding do? "To hell with that, stop the convoys we aren't playing on your terms Fritz" or words to that effect.

So NO 'any sort of activity' won't wash. The British are simply going to sit in Blighty and build up. That is not something the Germans will allow to happen and it is total dreamland to think they would.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 5:07:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If Germany would have taken out the BEF at Dunkirk with the Panzers,

warspite1

....or if Gamelin hadn't gone for the Breda Variant or Loerzer listened to von Kleist or Guderian remained sacked or many of the German panzer commanders not disobeyed orders [:)].....

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The paratroopers in transports form up like a bomber force attacking England

warspite1

How many Ju-52 did the Germans lose in Holland, Belgium and France? I'd be interested to know how many they had left for any such major operation, where they would be needed for all sorts of tasks including supply. Let's be clear - no where near enough.

According to Schenk, there were enough for the 7th FliegerDivision but none to spare (and insufficient gliders anyway) to allow the 22nd Air Landing to be used. So enough for the 7th but that is without all these other tasks they are being assigned. Holland and Belgium - even with limited air defence - also shows just how vulnerable these precious aircraft were. 50% were lost in Holland alone....

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

behind a real bomber force hitting the radar installations

warspite1

But that re-writes history and assumes the Germans understood radar and that they couldn't hit the towers once and that was it. Let's be clear. They didn't. And Radar remained operational.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

then a quick paradrop to capture at least one airfield.

warspite1

More paras and more Ju-52....wow. Given that the Germans aren't going to put radar out, what are the RAF doing at this point?

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

with a few barges loaded and coming across the channel to grab some beach front property.

warspite1

When do these barges - moving at circa 3 knots - have to leave port to make it to this beach front property? Isn't that a kind of long range warning sign right there?

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The air base would have fuel, supplies, and ground personnel for Luftwaffe planes that need help but they don't need to be based there, just stage them from France and top off the fighters fuel cells. This would effectively enhance their range, provide more time over the target, avoid the Channel radars, and hopefully save air crews from capture from aircraft that would otherwise be lost over the Channel.

The ground troops would consolidate their positions and enhance them. They would move out and try to get at least one airbase away from the coast so it would not be under Naval bombardment. More troops, supplies, and equipment would be flown in to increase their lodgement. If necessary, Luftwaffe bombers could also bring in supplies or just paradrop them although they might be needed as flying artillery.

warspite1

Sorry where have all these troops come from? Not to mention the fuel and supplies and ground personnel?

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

With mines laid in a corridor in the Channel with U-boats and E-boats, that could hamper the RN a little bit.

warspite1

Do the Royal Navy have any say in all this?... or Bomber Command?

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Especially if the Kriegsmarine staged a breakout attempt with some heavy surface raiders to distract the Royal Navy.

warspite1

Lolzer. After Norway, which heavy surface raiders are these exactly? Have you seen what the Germans had intact and undamaged in June/July/August 1940?

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If Little Bennie wanted in, Italy should have consulted with Germany and arranged plans for Gibralter, Malta, and the Suez/Port Said.

warspite1

I'd love to have seen this. Firstly the British allow any old unidentified merchant vessel into these ports? And allow any old unidentified ship into the canal itself?

How many troops get ashore, what equipment can they possibly have, and how do they get re-supplied? What are the British troops doing in the meantime?

Which of these three operations is going to get any Regia Marina support? This is the RM without the Littorios and the two Andrea Dorias just coming back into service.

If only the Italians had tried that......







TulliusDetritus -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 8:16:29 PM)

Somebody contain Warspite, please.

Churchill himself says in his memoirs that a bold coup de main was absolutely possible ;)

He thought the RN could more or less intercept the second, third waves though.

I mentioned Nimitz stating a similar (and apparently weird to us) idea. The objective fact: these guys were commanders in chief.

The gamble here is clear. The 300.000 men rescued at Dunkirk are just mussolinesque "8 million bayonets" until the industry can arm them ;)

The mighty Wehrmacht could have even sacrificed *at sea* let's say a couple of divisions or one corps. All there was in front is a "8 million bayonets" aka a paper tiger ;)

And as Clausewitz puts it, war is a very dangerous business. German divisions in Kent and somehow things start going downhill ;)

Which is why Churchill and Nimitz said what they said, surprising to us armchair vodka / whisky aficionados from the *future*

‌And don't get me started with the air forces. The pacific conflict always interested me more, because it has all sorts of operations. I was surprised to find German pilots were really good at killing ships. These guys were not even naval pilots and yet they managed to sinks lots of British DDs (ie Greece operations). So I pity these DDs trying to intercept the giant German armada.

The British pilots on the other hand, were *not* that good at killing ships. Except of course a few naval specialists aka Taranto ;)

‌So here's the gamble. Prepare your gardening tools. Start raising dozens (no cheap worthless excuses now) of divisions, and form defensive lines all the way to Scotland, evacuating your industry in the process. In other words, do what STAVKA successfully did or die. Except you lack space and god knows what's going to happen when the Wehrmacht swallows the first line, trapping let's say 10 divisions. And so on and so on.

It's this or a miserable German failure.




UP844 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 9:52:02 PM)

1) The British ground forces were not limited to those evacuated from Dunkirk.

2) As for RAF pilots, they sunk approximately half the merchant ships sunk on the Italy to Libya/Tunisia routes in 1940-43. Perhaps they would have sunk more if they had dive bombers. I dare think barges would have been far easier targets than merchant vessels.

3) Even though the Germans managed to establish a beachead in Kent, any air support would have to deal with an intact RAF (forget those Stukas).





TulliusDetritus -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/9/2020 10:08:44 PM)

The second biggest gamble of all, after Barbarossa. I assume they should be doing what the Japanese did (to minimise losses), assemble everything, big fishing boats included, anything that floats. So not only barges.




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/10/2020 12:08:53 AM)

Great, my initial response timed out. Someone asked for options, so here we go again:


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If Germany would have taken out the BEF at Dunkirk with the Panzers,

warspite1

....or if Gamelin hadn't gone for the Breda Variant or Loerzer listened to von Kleist or Guderian remained sacked or many of the German panzer commanders not disobeyed orders [:)].....

All other things the same except the German panzers and the rest of the army at Dunkirk continues to advance. Then, some armour - maybe even a panzer division - refits.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The paratroopers in transports form up like a bomber force attacking England

warspite1

How many Ju-52 did the Germans lose in Holland, Belgium and France? I'd be interested to know how many they had left for any such major operation, where they would be needed for all sorts of tasks including supply. Let's be clear - no where near enough.

According to Schenk, there were enough for the 7th FliegerDivision but none to spare (and insufficient gliders anyway) to allow the 22nd Air Landing to be used. So enough for the 7th but that is without all these other tasks they are being assigned. Holland and Belgium - even with limited air defence - also shows just how vulnerable these precious aircraft were. 50% were lost in Holland alone....

The Ju-90 could carry 40 passengers, not many built only about 18 or so but some were still around. It had a door for vehicles and heavy cargo.

Some 276 FW Condors built, maybe not all yet, but they could carry 26 passengers.

So, those two aircraft should at least be able to carry half that many paratroopers - maybe more since they would not need to have that much fuel.

The German glider could carry 9 men and 270 kg or 600 lbs of equipment. It could do a 80 degree dive, land, and stop within 60 meters. Or it could carry 1200 kgs or 2600 pounds of cargo. They are reusable. This could be towed by a Me-109 or a Ju-87.


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

behind a real bomber force hitting the radar installations

warspite1

But that re-writes history and assumes the Germans understood radar and that they couldn't hit the towers once and that was it. Let's be clear. They didn't. And Radar remained operational.

They understood radar and had some of their own although not as good. But keep attacking the sites, even use gliders to land troops to destroy them. Get back to the glider, load the air brake or cut the cords, send up a balloon if need be to have an aircraft grab the tow rope and take off. That is, if there was no suitable emergency landing and take off strip nearby.

Just make a gap in the radar coverage so the British don't see what is forming up over France and when. The the British would have to rely on ground observers or air craft in flight to see the Luftwaffe aircraft - any aircraft could then be shot down as well.


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

then a quick paradrop to capture at least one airfield.

warspite1

More paras and more Ju-52....wow. Given that the Germans aren't going to put radar out, what are the RAF doing at this point?

The RAF is reacting. If the radar is put out as mentioned above, then the RAF will have to have a standing CAP which can be targeted a well.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

with a few barges loaded and coming across the channel to grab some beach front property.

warspite1

When do these barges - moving at circa 3 knots - have to leave port to make it to this beach front property? Isn't that a kind of long range warning sign right there?

Not if they set out at night. If they practice loading, shifting the barges, then unloading, it might lull the British. Then, one night, the barges start across landing tanks, artillery, other vehicles, more men, and supplies.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The air base would have fuel, supplies, and ground personnel for Luftwaffe planes that need help but they don't need to be based there, just stage them from France and top off the fighters fuel cells. This would effectively enhance their range, provide more time over the target, avoid the Channel radars, and hopefully save air crews from capture from aircraft that would otherwise be lost over the Channel.

The ground troops would consolidate their positions and enhance them. They would move out and try to get at least one airbase away from the coast so it would not be under Naval bombardment. More troops, supplies, and equipment would be flown in to increase their lodgment. If necessary, Luftwaffe bombers could also bring in supplies or just paradrop them although they might be needed as flying artillery.

warspite1

Sorry where have all these troops come from? Not to mention the fuel and supplies and ground personnel?

These would be the initial landing troops. The distance is not all that far and the Ju-52s could make more than one trip per day. Paratroopers could also drop out of the bomb bay of bombers, which could also drop supplies and equipment. With an air field in possession, it gets even easier and more can be landed and offloaded since no parachutes would be needed.

Any trucks, cars, tractors, horses with wagons or carts captured would be used by the Germans.


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

With mines laid in a corridor in the Channel with U-boats and E-boats, that could hamper the RN a little bit.

warspite1

Do the Royal Navy have any say in all this?... or Bomber Command?

Yes, they do. But most of the Royal Navy is not in the area or it would be bombed. Bomber command would try and interfere but they would run into Me-109s and Me-110s. Those could ruin a bombers whole day.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Especially if the Kriegsmarine staged a breakout attempt with some heavy surface raiders to distract the Royal Navy.

warspite1

Lolzer. After Norway, which heavy surface raiders are these exactly? Have you seen what the Germans had intact and undamaged in June/July/August 1940?

Temporary repairs could be made, then the ships could sail and do so in order to be seen. The Royal Navy may not know the extent of the damage and would have to react accordingly. So would Coastal Command. Hopefully, the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean weather patterns would help hide the fact that the Kriegsmarine is not there. The Royal Navy could also sail into freshly laid minefields with U-boats patrolling. The U-boats then go south to the Channel area.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If Little Bennie wanted in, Italy should have consulted with Germany and arranged plans for Gibralter, Malta, and the Suez/Port Said.

warspite1

I'd love to have seen this. Firstly the British allow any old unidentified merchant vessel into these ports? And allow any old unidentified ship into the canal itself?

Yes. Remember that Italy and the United Kingdom are not at war yet. These could either appear to be normal troop movements to/from East Africa or a civilian passenger liner stopping at The Rock. Spanish dock workers could either be co-opted or even some Italians pretending to be Spanish could have checked out the defenses at The Rock.

How many troops get ashore, what equipment can they possibly have, and how do they get re-supplied? What are the British troops doing in the meantime?

For the Rock, either be ashore as tourists who pick up some stashed weapons deposited there by Spaniards or Italians pretending to be Spaniards or troops debarking from passenger liners in uniforms with weapons. Do so through the cargo hatch so they would not be seen on deck. The defenses would be lightly manned most likely.

For the Suez, it could simply be a ship leaving mines behind until it sinks in the Canal to block it. That could render it unusable for a few days. The Royal Navy would not be able to reinforce or retreat easily until the Canal was cleared unless it decided to run the gauntlet of the Central Med.


Which of these three operations is going to get any Regia Marina support? This is the RM without the Littorios and the two Andrea Dorias just coming back into service.

First and foremost would be Malta where there was already a plan:

quote:

Invasion plan DG10/42
Italian battleship Giulio Cesare firing during the Battle of Calabria, on 9 July 1940

In 1938 Mussolini had considered an invasion of Malta under Plan DG10/42, in which a force of 40,000 men would capture the island. Nearly all 80 purpose-built sea craft that would land the Italian Army ashore were expected to be lost but landings would be made in the north, with an attack upon the Victoria Lines, across the centre of the island. A secondary landing would be made on Gozo, north-west of Malta and the islet of Comino, between the two. All of the Italian navy and 500 aircraft would be involved, but the lack of supplies led the planners to believe that the operation could not be carried out. With the German success in the Battle of France from May–June 1940, the plan was reduced to 20,000 men with the addition of tanks. The Allied defeat in France gave the Italians an opportunity to seize Malta but Italian intelligence overestimated the Maltese defences and Mussolini thought that an invasion would be unnecessary once Britain made peace. Mussolini also expected Francoist Spain to join the Axis and capture Gibraltar, which would close the Mediterranean to the British from the west.[36]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Malta_%28World_War_II%29#Italian_siege_(June%E2%80%93December_1940)

The supplies could have been found and be waiting. The 10th Army could have stayed put and thus would have had the supplies where they were at. The 5th Army could also have stayed where it was at so no supplies needed for moving. With the Royal Navy at either end of the Med, there was only one monitor and two gunboats at Malta.

There were six Sea Gladiators assembled and six more to be assembled. Three of these were named Faith, Hope, and Charity. Not much air cover against the Italian Air Force. There was one airfield almost completed.

There were 4 regular infantry battalions and one territorial infantry battalion. There may have been some light armour besides Bren carriers. They may have been two artillery regiments of 24 guns each, one of 18 pounders and one of 25 pounders. The coastal defense guns could not fire too much against land targets.


If only the Italians had tried that......


True. If the Italians had tried that in the Med and were successful in a blitz, then two German Panzer divisions and two Motorized divisions along with good ([sm=00000289.gif][sm=00000289.gif][sm=00000280.gif][sm=00000289.gif][sm=00000289.gif]) Italian armoured formations and mobile infantry formations, then Egypt may have been captured. That would make the Eastern Med secure and Central Med more secure. If Gibraltar could be quickly captured, the entire Med would be secure except for any possible Vichy French action.

The airborne landings in England would be a blitz type along with the force sent across the Channel to grab some beachfront property. But the British would be surprised and the Royal Navy would be out of position. As long as the Germans could get an airfield away from British Naval bombardment and kept operating otherwise, then more men, equipment, and supplies could be flown in.

Do these operations fast and surprise is on your side. Negate the British radar and lessen the distance that the Luftwaffe is from a safe place to land and it takes away the biggest RAF advantage.




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/10/2020 3:19:37 AM)

Apparently some of the armour arrived in November of 1940.

quote:

. . . Tank support was provided by the 1st Independent Troop of the Royal Tank Regiment, disembarked in November 1940, which was initially equipped with four Matilda II Infantry Tanks, armed with 2-pounder (40 mm) guns, and two Vickers Mk.VIC light tanks, armed with two machine guns (part of detachments from the 7th Royal Tank Regiment and the 3rd The King's Own Hussars). . . .


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/10/2020 4:24:21 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Somebody contain Warspite, please.

warspite1

[8|]

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Churchill himself says in his memoirs that a bold coup de main was absolutely possible ;)

warspite1

Churchill said lots of things (see your comment below about Nimitz). When this scenario starts with the Germans stopping the evacuation at Dunkirk then already we've move outside history massively.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

He thought the RN could more or less intercept the second, third waves though.

warspite1

So the first wave would have been invulnerable to anything - coastal guns, aircraft and the small craft of the RN?

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

I mentioned Nimitz stating a similar (and apparently weird to us) idea.

warspite1

Exactly. Thank-you for making my point for me.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

The gamble here is clear. The 300.000 men rescued at Dunkirk are just mussolinesque "8 million bayonets" until the industry can arm them ;)

warspite1

As with Curtis Lemay, please get your facts right before spouting off. 300,000? and how many of these were actually British and not French that returned to France

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

The mighty Wehrmacht could have even sacrificed *at sea* let's say a couple of divisions or one corps. All there was in front is a "8 million bayonets" aka a paper tiger ;)

warspite1

Wow....so you are saying a whole German corps could have been lost at sea... just how many barges do you think the Germans had? Once they are lost, they are lost. There is then no follow-up waves, there is no re-supply. A whole corps? Get a grip.

Oh and by the way, this scenario assumes a quick coup de main after France (when the British Army were in the worst condition). So the conversion of the barges so that they could land tanks, vehicles etc - when did all that take place?....

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

German divisions in Kent and somehow things start going downhill ;)

warspite1

And no one would argue. A supplied and meaningful German force would likely mean the end of the UK. But they still haven't got there under this scenario.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

‌And don't get me started with the air forces. These guys were not even naval pilots and yet they managed to sinks lots of British DDs (ie Greece operations). So I pity these DDs trying to intercept the giant German armada.

warspite1

Right..... so exactly what air cover did the RN have off Crete?

And its going to take the German Armada about 36 hours iirc to get from France to the UK (assuming the tide is with them, that there are no snags given there's been no time to practice any of this. A thousand plus barges, sailing at night, closely packed. So no chance of accidents, collisions? No chances of wires getting crossed? All according to you, would definitely go smoothly..... of course.

BTW, why are all these German aircraft in the sky at night?

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

The British pilots on the other hand, were *not* that good at killing ships.

warspite1

Lolz... Well how many times did the RN put their ships in harms way without air cover? How many times did the Germans? With what is being proposed here we would get to see wouldn't we? Although the Germans would have air cover at least.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

‌So here's the gamble.

It's this or a miserable German failure.

warspite1

Exactly. It's a gamble. And even Hitler, the great gambler, didn't think it could be pulled off - nor did Raeder and nor did Goering.




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