warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (9/12/2020 5:10:30 PM)
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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay Nevertheless, their options, if they reach that conclusion, don't seem to be very significant: Put some part of their very limited ground forces back into a continental ground war maelstrom with the Germans. I do think it's going to be very hard for the British to leap to the conclusion that no invasion is coming regardless of what they feel is missing that may seem to them to be essential prep for such an invasion. There are simply too many options for how such an invasion could be prosecuted. warspite1 First paragraph - agreed. When you have a small army, when that army has been sent into headlong retreat and loses all its heavy weapons, the options for future action aren’t exactly bountiful. At the same time, they will do what they believe they can, and what they believe they can will be more if they don’t expect an invasion any time soon. If the Germans are doing nothing other than sitting around allowing the British to re-build then - apart from being dumb from the German point of view - that is going to be suggesting to the British that whatever they are doing in Spain is taking all their attention. Let’s be clear, even if the British don’t expect an invasion imminently they are still not going to be sending everything they’ve got overseas because there could be an invasion in the future. This is what happened in real life and I don't believe its right to magically alter Churchill's MO any more than I do Goering's. BUT All of that can be discussed as things develop in Spain and elsewhere. Before we get to that we need to understand what the Germans would have done in this scenario. And for that…… quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay Goring is not the Supreme Commander. Hitler is. warspite1 …but I don’t understand where this comment comes from, I really don’t. No, Goering was not Supreme Commander. But he was a vain boastful man who held extremely high office – he happened to be Hitler’s nominated successor – and we know he had great influence with Hitler. Just two examples: Dunkirk In truth, there was plenty of blame to go around. On May 23 Field Marshal Hermann Göring had phoned Hitler and demanded his Luftwaffe be given primary responsibility for destroying the Allied forces around Dunkirk. Göring’s boasts about the Luftwaffe convinced Hitler the British couldn’t escape Dunkirk anyway. Source History.Net Stalingrad Major discussion about air supply for Stalingrad. Goering bound himself to supply Army. On the average one could manage 300 tonnes [illegible, might be 500 tonnes]. Everything would be thrown in, even the Ju 90s from the commercial runs. Zeitzler was doubtful, thought that 300 [or 500] tonnes would not be enough, talked about the weather situation and losses. However, Reichsmarschall was enormously strong, said he would fly in any weather conditions. Demyansk and other cases had proved it possible. Source Diary of Major Engel – Fuhrer Headquarters November 1942. Not the Supreme Commander? No he wasn't - but that did not mean he was able to use his power and position to persuade Hitler to his way of thinking - particularly when he was telling Hitler what was comforting for the Fuhrer to hear. quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay Why would he launch a strategic bombing campaign if they've decided not to make a cross-channel attempt? warspite1 I haven’t said what the Germans would do would be a strategic bombing campaign. I said that sitting in Northern France in July 1940 is simply unbelievable in my opinion and, given the situation, given the characters involved, the Germans just wouldn’t do that. I suspect the most likely option is that the tactics employed to beat Fighter Command in real life would be the tactics employed here. Why? Because this is about Goering defeating Fighter Command and not about Sea Lion. I suspect as per real life the bombing of cities may come later – but it wouldn’t be the initial plan. So they would do something and they would take the fight to Fighter Command because they believed they were almost finished anyway. Moreover, Goering didn’t believe in Sea Lion and believed that the defeat of Fighter Command would see Britain come to the peace table. Add to this that Hitler likely didn’t really believe in the project as it was too risky for his liking. So he’s got Goering constantly in his ear about what the Luftwaffe can do and these boasts actually tell Hitler what he wants to hear. I say yet again, the Battle of Britain was not something foisted upon Goering because of Sea Lion. Goering believed the hype, he believed his own press and he believed the dodgy intelligence. Fighter Command was there for the taking and that is why a Battle of Britain type scenario would have happened even with a Med first strategy. quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay Again, it's clear that Mussolini can be enticed by German plans (see Barbarossa). The German plans for the Med will be just such. warspite1 Mussolini in the summer of 1941 is a completely different animal (in terms of his relationship with Hitler) than in 1940. There are two important reasons why Hitler was keen to offer troops to Germany for Barbarossa: - He was no friend of Communism and the Soviet Union was his enemy (although interestingly this move did not help his popularity in Italy). This is no different from him offering aircraft for the Battle of Britain. - But the main reason, the absolutely key reason, is that by the summer of 1941 North Africa had happened, Taranto and Matapan had happened, Greece had happened. Here was a man who needed some brownie points, he needed to ingratiate himself with Hitler. After the first year of Italy’s war, the balance sheet was in massive deficit and Mussolini was under no illusions what Italy could or couldn’t do. That is NOT the case in June 1940 when he was constantly bending Graziani’s ear to attack Egypt. And even after this debacle, he launched an invasion of Greece with no planning (iirc the air force and navy weren’t even told about the operation with two weeks before its start!!). In June 1940 he thought the war was over and he needed to stake his claim. He ordered an attack on the French and then the British. At that time Mussolini and Italy were not mere extensions of Nazi Germany. To suggest they were is, in my opinion, wrong. quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay Again, it's the threat of an unencumbered Soviet Union that will impact just what Japan's "interests" are. warspite1 No point discussing Japan further unless we know this project will ever get off the ground. quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay As I said, if Stalin initiates the war, it's a very different war than historical. SPI calls it "Limited War". And, by limited, they especially mean production. Limited War production is only marginally greater than peacetime production. And the bad news is that they don't get to go to Total War until they've lost three production centers. So, they can be fatally compromised before that happens. So, either way Stalin turns, it's good for the Axis. warspite1 No point discussing what Stalin would or wouldn’t do unless we know this project will ever get off the ground. quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay Finally, let's be clear that Greece and Yugoslavia (not to mention Norway) did include extensive fighting in hills, regardless of what distances those fights crossed, or that some fighting may have been in non-hill terrain. Any claim that the Germans never faced the terrain of Spain or Turkey are false. warspite1 And again, I don’t know if you are answering someone else, but assume you are referring to me as its in response to my post, but to be equally clear, I have never suggested otherwise.
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