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RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (10/1/2020 12:55:34 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: warspite1
So the very first question we need to have a consensus on is when, realistically, Hitler would have decided a Med strategy is the way to go.
My view is that such a strategy should not be considered until June - and this would have been after the armistice is signed. I say this for three main reasons:
1. Going for any strategy - be it a Med strategy or a Soviet strategy or a Sea Lion strategy - is totally superfluous to Hitler's thinking until such time as Poland and France are defeated. After all, who - least of all Hitler - is going to imagine how the war will pan out in September 1939.
2. Only once Hitler knows Mussolini has joined the war, does the Med even come onto anyone's radar.
3. During May and June 1940 Hitler has his hands full trying to beat France, Britain and their Allies. To suggest that at this time Hitler is going to be diverted from this major operation (Case Yellow) to start thinking earnestly about Spain, and having in-depth conversations with Mussolini and Franco, while France has yet to be resolved, just seems highly unlikely.
Why is this important and the place to start? Well for two reasons:
a) it governs how quickly, after France, an attack on Spain would take place - and that is really important in terms of the knock-on effect elsewhere, the preparedness of the various belligerents etc
b) it also governs what Hitler may or may not have ordered during his time of indecision after France surrenders.
So that's my thoughts, but what do others think? So when, realistically, do we think Hitler would have had his light-bulb moment? To be clear this is simply when Hitler decides that a Med First solution is to be planned and not when the planning is finalised - that comes next....
The Med first strategy would only come about after Italy enters the war, it is too difficult with too many other things that have to be done prior to Nazi Germany trying to dominate thesead when it can't even get ships there.
But an invasion of England could have been contemplated and planned for prior to the attacks on the West starting on 10 May 1940. They may not have been that detailed but the prerequisites could have been decided upon that would need to occur before any invasion of England. There could be different levels of initial commitment based upon how many air transports and gliders would be available, what type of sea lift would be needed and where it would come from plus how to get it there safely.
The air transports would also include light aircraft which could fly in a few men or supplies as was done later by using light aircraft to fly an infantry battalion across a river, two men at a time. Any aircraft that could be used as glider tugs would be identified. All pilots for such aircraft would also have to be trained to a certain extend for towing said gliders.
The Luftwaffe would also have to identify which aircraft would be best used to attack enemy water vessels, even light ones such as MTBs. They might find that the ME-110 would be good for that with their cannons plus light bombs.
The sea lift would not only include barges, anticipating also the capture of barges in the Netherlands, Belgium, and France but also German ones that could be spared that could make the channel crossing. Any ferries would also be identified as Ro-Ro vessels but also how to debar said vehicles and equipment if a suitable port in England has not been captured besides identifying the potential French/Belgian ports to utilize.
Complicated? Yes, but that is what the lower staff is for and it would also be good training even if the plans were not used.
Think if Smiling Albert was given a parachute division, an air landing division, a couple of mountain divisions plus panzer support when the BEF was located elsewhere? To go along with a few airfields in England that were out of reach of the Royal Navy's battleships guns? It might be a tough fight but winnable.
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