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warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (10/7/2020 6:45:49 AM)
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ORIGINAL: warspite1
Okay, no point flogging a dead horse so I'll give it one more try to see if there is any interest out there.
I will jot down a Med First counterfactual and would welcome thoughts and insights so that we can come to a consensus on what we think may have been possible (recognising that our knowledge is necessarily limited (we are not historians!) but that, as war gamers with a keen interest in what we play, many of us will have at least some knowledge to impart).
I'll make a start on it and see what, if any, interest it attracts.
The essentials will be:
- Hitler is persuaded to employ a Mediterranean-First strategy to weaken the British (or ideally get them to surrender) before an assault on the Soviet Union is made in the Summer of 1942.
- This plan will involve the taking of Gibraltar and Hitler will be so persuaded by the plan, that he will - as a last resort - even be prepared to invade Spain
- A second prong of this scenario is a declaration of war against Turkey (if she can't be brought into the Axis camp) and thus a pincer move to take Egypt from the west and north.
- Moving Hitler's thinking in this way is a pretty big alteration to reality so I think we need to sensible in terms of trying to ensure we keep other key players in the scenario acting in line with their character. This doesn't mean everyone is hidebound to do what they did in WWII obviously - everyone can react to changing circumstance - but we just need to be sensible.
Hopefully this will be a bit of fun and I would like to think that there are enough war gamers in our community with WWII knowledge that would be happy to join in and give their 2 cents, or GBP 0.02 or Euro 0.02. Probably need 4-5 minimum contributors to make it viable. Who knows? Someone might even make a war game from it [;)]
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So the very first question we need to have a consensus on is when, realistically, Hitler would have decided a Med strategy is the way to go.
My view is that such a strategy should not be considered until June - and this would have been after the armistice is signed. I say this for three main reasons:
1. Going for any strategy - be it a Med strategy or a Soviet strategy or a Sea Lion strategy - is totally superfluous to Hitler's thinking until such time as Poland and France are defeated. After all, who - least of all Hitler - is going to imagine how the war will pan out in September 1939.
2. Only once Hitler knows Mussolini has joined the war, does the Med even come onto anyone's radar.
3. During May and June 1940 Hitler has his hands full trying to beat France, Britain and their Allies. To suggest that at this time Hitler is going to be diverted from this major operation (Case Yellow) to start thinking earnestly about Spain, and having in-depth conversations with Mussolini and Franco, while France has yet to be resolved, just seems highly unlikely.
Why is this important and the place to start? Well for two reasons:
a) it governs how quickly, after France, an attack on Spain would take place - and that is really important in terms of the knock-on effect elsewhere, the preparedness of the various belligerents etc
b) it also governs what Hitler may or may not have ordered during his time of indecision after France surrenders.
So that's my thoughts, but what do others think? So when, realistically, do we think Hitler would have had his light-bulb moment? To be clear this is simply when Hitler decides that a Med First solution is to be planned and not when the planning is finalised - that comes next....
warspite1
Okay so I'm going with what I think is the realistic situation. Hitler and his staff have NO thoughts whatsoever in 1939 about Gibraltar. Frankly he has too many more immediate concerns such as the British guarantee to Poland, then getting the NS Pact signed, then taking his biggest gamble to date - Case White.
This goes well and the British and French fail to react. Poland is beaten and, thanks to his 'pact with the devil' Hitler no longer faces a two front war.
But he is impatient. No sooner has Poland fallen than he turns to the not inconsequential matter of defeating France. No hindsight allowed. This is going to be tough and many of his generals think its madness to even try. But Hitler is not waiting around and wants this campaign begun in the autumn.
Again there is no time to be thinking about operations in places he's not even considered. Mussolini refused to join the war, there is no Mediterranean theatre.
Hitler is potentially saved by the weather and the assault on the French doesn't happen. His army was in no state to undertake such an operation so soon after Poland. Then, in early 1940 his attention is taken away by events on his northern flank - and this is brought to a head by the Altmark affair. Hitler prepares to deal swiftly with this problem ahead of the campaign in the west. Again he has no time to be thinking about issues that aren't even on his radar; and given practically no one is expecting a win in France anytime soon, the Mediterranean is not on any one else's mind either.
But... not only does Hitler's audacious move in Scandinavia prove successful, but he throws a double six - repeatedly - in the French campaign. So much so that, after the BEF are removed from the continent and Germany is well into the next phase - Case Red - Mussolini starts to fear he's going to be left out.....
On the 10th June 1940 the Duce takes his country to war. He has no plan, there are no thoughts of quick victories against key targets while he has surprise on his side. His 'thinking' is simply that, the war is essentially over and in order to claim the prizes, he needs to be in the game.
And so now, for the first time, with France being routed and a Mediterranean front opened up, I think its the very earliest opportunity for any consideration to be given to Gibraltar.
But given the personalities involved, given the way Hitler and Mussolini work, what is possible here? (Remember the only key alteration at this point is that Hitler can and will be persuaded to adopt a Med-first strategy. But how, realistically could this have come about?
- When?
- From whom?
- What about Spain?
Remember to that at this point, Italy has simply entered the war and Germany do not yet know what France will do.....So from 10th June 1940 how does the early summer pan out?
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