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warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (10/10/2020 7:52:32 AM)
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Well a couple of things. Firstly thank-you for at last putting some effort into your “Staff Study”. At least that now makes more clear your thinking, it’s just a shame that it got to more than 40 pages and over 1,300 posts. But that is by the by, and I appreciate you’ve now done this.
As I said previously, I probably would never have got involved in the discussion had I not mis-understood that you were proposing Germany adopted this strategy in 1939. But having got involved in it I am too invested to walk away. So I comment as follows (at least as far as Spain is concerned as that’s what kicks it off):
Ok, this has gone on long enough. Time for a summary:
The Hypothesis:
Shortly after the start of the war in 1939, German planners realize that, without naval parity, without amphibious transport, and without a strategic air force, a cross-channel invasion is a fool’s errand. They need another way to get at the British, and Egypt could serve that purpose. This fits well with Hitler the Anglophile. [You said shortly after the start? So I assume you mean after the defeat of Poland, although regardless of exactly when, I still don’t see this as being a ‘realistic’ German view of the situation in 1939:
a) We have to remove hindsight. I can’t see how you can make a case for the Germans even thinking about what happens post France. France is not going to be a quick win, and indeed historically (and this is born out in the Hitler Directives) the limit of German thinking was to gain enough territory in the Low Countries and North Eastern France to enable then to take the war to Britain by air. Defeating France – let alone defeating France quickly – was not really thought about at this time.
b) But even if you can get around that massive hurdle, there is still the fact that Mussolini has refused to join the war (like Franco, Il Duce gave a large list of items that Germany would need to provide to enable the Italians to get involved) and Germany could not afford this. So there is no need for any thought about the Mediterranean from the German side.
c) And in addition to there being no Mediterranean Front, there is also the fact that Hitler continually believed that the British wouldn’t fight and that they would: i) not go to war over Poland, ii) they would make peace after Poland (we also know this wishful but dominant mind set was held by Hitler after the defeat of France). So we have a situation where Hitler can’t, realistically see past France, but let’s be real here – if Hitler was suddenly presented with a snapshot vision of the future that told him France would be defeated before the end of June 1940 and the British Army would be evicted, at cost, from Norway and France, then that would simply reinforce his belief that Britain would have surrendered.].
They also realize that, if Italy joins the war (which they realize is very likely), the Mediterranean will become a significant theater of the war. That theater will be hard to master if the path must go over that sea. They will need a land route to both Gibraltar and Suez. That means they must get there via Spain and Turkey. [As said, I don’t think they believe Italy entering the war is likely. Yes, a possibility, but not likely. Afterall Mussolini’s bellicose talk, when it came down to it, he backed away from fulfilling the Pact of Steel.]
Finally, they realize that Middle Eastern oil will be a boon to their cause, and they can best get to it via Turkey. This also will put them closer to the huge Russian oil complex at Baku. Capture of that complex will cripple the Soviets. [Again you have the Germans thinking about Turkey in September 1939. What lies between Germany and Turkey at this point? Romania provided 94% of Germany’s oil and was the sole, regular, supplier of oil (yes, even including the NS Pact). Germany ultimately got Romania (and Hungary) to join the tripartite pact in late November 1940 (Bulgaria not until March 1941). What sort of plans would Germany be making for Turkey in September 1939? With Romanian oil at stake do you think that Romania (at this stage still probably more British/French friendly) would be yet another on your growing list of German military conquests? No Romanian oil, no war. Given the circumstances it is inconceivable that Turkey is even on Hitler’s radar].
They decide that, after Poland and France are out of the way, Spain (provided Italy joins the war), then Turkey must be addressed next. Therefore, they urge that negotiations with Franco to join the Axis begin ASAP. [Sorry, but I believe this is too glib a comment. If France are defeated then surely, all logic says Britain will follow. But even if not, for the reasons mentioned above, I just can’t see how Hitler has any focus on Spain right now – and remember it’s been just five months since the end of the Spanish Civil War. What state does Hitler believe Spain to be in?].
The Axis Med Strategy is born!
This is the premise for the hypothetical, and it is a reasonable premise. All of the above could have happened. [I just can’t see it as a reasonable counterfactual and to my mind you have presented no plausible case for Hitler ordering his planning staff to even think about Spain at this stage, let alone Turkey.]
France and Spain:
[The problem of course now is that, without a case being made, the whole timetable falls apart. And nothing happens in the subsequent months to alter that. As 1939 moves into 1940 Hitler’s mind is dominated by one thing – the defeat of the hated French. But Hitler has other irritants to juggle too. On the political front the Balkans is a cause for concern and he needs to keep those fractious children quiet – not least to guarantee his only real source of oil. Then, on the military front the British start causing trouble on his northern flank and Hitler has to think about a pre-emptive invasion of Norway. So he has enough real life worries without thinking about long-range what-if’s.
And still, Mussolini has provided no real indication that he is any nearer entering the war (though he continues to talk a lot and blows in every direction depending upon who he spoke to last). So as Germany counts down to Case Yellow, there remains no change to Hitler’s thinking on a front that doesn’t even exist.]
The Allies having no knowledge of the German Med Strategy, the war proceeds as it did historically, with Poland, Denmark, and Norway tumbling out as per history. The Soviet Union cheers both sides on as it stays neutral.
As planning progresses for France, planning for Spain does so in a parallel fashion. Taking a page from the Japanese negotiations with the US, a deadline is set beyond which war with Spain will become certain. That deadline is set at the minute their forces are ready to kick off at the Spanish border. [As I see it, the problem here is that there is absolutely no thought given over to treating historical characters as anything more than one-dimensional cardboard counters that can directed here there and everywhere. If we ignore previous commentary and go along with your timetable (which for the avoidance of doubt I can’t agree is remotely likely), then we need to explore just what is actually happening and why? So you’ve decided that Hitler decides he wants Gibraltar – and for Gibraltar he needs the help of Spain. But what is it that moves Hitler to want Gibraltar so much he is willing to destroy Franco – the man he helped to install to power - and invade Spain? This is a big decision, and Mussolini will not be happy about it at all.
Mussolini invested far more than Hitler in Spain, and reached an understanding with Franco on Italy’s dominant position in the region. Unless Franco acquiesces to Hitler’s request (and ultimately demand) then he isn’t going to survive (unless he whisks himself off to the Canaries to continue the fight). Either way a pro-German puppet will be installed in Madrid. This is bad news for Italy. This is real life and Italy isn’t Germany, it’s not an extension or a satellite or a client state of Germany. You don’t give enough thought to this in my opinion.]
No change in circumstances means that France tumbles out as it did historically and Italy joins the war on the Axis side. However, knowing that they may have to invade Spain, the Germans, in their Vichy negotiations, push for a wider gap at the Spanish border, in exchange for equal territory elsewhere. [So how is it decided that, having ejected the British from the continent, the mainland is then simply left to recover? You’ve made no mention of this massively important element in terms of what Germany does next. That Germany simply leaves Britain alone doesn’t seem believable. Spain will be another German Army victory. Goering wants, Goering needs, his Luftwaffe to gain their place in the sun. But once again you have Goering passive at this point. His air force failed to stop the British Army getting away from Dunkirk so he’s more than a bit embarrassed, but he also believes Fighter Command is on its last legs and can be defeated in weeks. But you believe he never makes the case to Hitler that he can bring Britain to heel without any need for an invasion? And Hitler, not wanting to invade, and so happy to believe Goering, isn’t going to go with this? Instead we are to believe that, as a first choice, Hitler will invade Spain to get to Gibraltar while leaving his enemy entirely alone (bar the handful of u-boats that are achieving very limited success)?
After the six weeks of combat in France, the freshest German divisions are earmarked for Spain. A handful arrive by rail on the Spanish border sometime in July – much as they did historically. Franco, never having any intention of joining the Axis, still is holding out at that point. That’s the tripwire! Those few German divisions are given the greenlight to invade and they catch the Spanish in their peacetime deployments. They quickly overrun the thin border guard and spread out into Spain. They are followed by the rest of a full army group: Let’s say, 25 Infantry, 2 Motor, and 3 Panzer divisions in total. (According to SPI, that totals 196 strength vs. 21 for the Spanish: over 9:1 theater edge – local edges will far exceed that). [Simply no comment on SPI unit values. If the Germans have been negotiating with the Spanish – and those negotiations have been as intense as real life then, also as per real life, Franco will take the pre-caution of beefing up (as much as he’s able) the defences in the mountain passes just in case.]
Repair commences immediately on the Spanish rail lines. But the divisions carry plenty of supply with them, and trucks can easily bridge the gap to them from the rail head in France – as they did in North Africa and in the Balkans – even if this means having to wait for supplies to build up a bit before continuing. Their supply requirements are directly proportional to the size and quality of the Spanish army they’re fighting: tiny and low. The rail line in France, operating to the European rail standard, can deliver enough supply for an entire army group to its rail head at the Spanish border (as similar lines in North Korea did for the Chinese later).
The Spanish army is smaller than the BEF was in France (which was only about 10% of the force the Germans beat in that campaign). The last time the Spanish faced a foreign enemy was in the Spanish-American War, where they got rolled everywhere. Most of their best equipment was from the Italians and Germans – good luck getting any replacements from them! [Well the last time the Soviets faced a foreign enemy they were thoroughly humiliated in Finland so……..]
But we know the Germans will win. Based on what the German planners themselves have said, the campaign will take some time to finish – how long? Who knows but clearly not less than six weeks (which was the German timescale for Felix!) and therefore could be some months. This will depend on how the Spanish fight and the level of resistance they are prepared to put up given the enormity of the betrayal.
In a few weeks, Madrid falls. Spanish resistance starts to falter. Franco begins to come to grips with his situation: He’s a fascist dictator. Soon he will have to flee Spain or fall into Hitler’s hands. Once in the hands of the British, he will never be allowed to make any deal with the Axis. [Franco has been asked to join the war and has given perfectly reasonable and understandable reasons for not doing so. His country has only recently been involved in a costly and massively destructive civil war. The country has no oil (and is being kept on monthly supplies by the US) and is on the brink of starvation (but being helped by the US). Despite this, Spain has been invaded, without even so much as a declaration of war, by someone he thought a friend. Do you not understand how Franco and the Spanish people would be feeling?
So you know how the US felt about Pearl Harbor – Sunday morning just before Christmas, and by a country that couldn’t even be considered a friend? Well try, applying that to Spain and the Spanish people. And yet you state: “Once in the hands of the British, he will never be allowed to make any deal with the Axis”. On what basis would Franco possibly be looking to make a deal with Hitler? I mean seriously? It just beggars belief. Hitler and the Germans have just stabbed him in the back, they’ve brought the horrors of war to the Spanish people not much more than a year after the civil war, and you have Franco desperate to make a deal with the man responsible?
But he knows he will never be returned to power by the liberal democracies that would have to re-conquer Spain. [Why? He’s refused to bend to Hitler’s request. He has stood up to Hitler. That makes him an ally of Britain. Churchill (with Roosevelt in the background) will treat with anyone, give assistance to anyone, give financial and military support to anyone that fights Hitler. Franco not only has no reason to think the British will sideline him, but even if he did, the British (and Americans in the background) will be making damn sure he knows the score].
His only option is to make a deal with Hitler. [No. But this is only one side of the story. If Spain and Franco feel betrayed and vengeful, imagine what Hitler feels? He never wanted this, he never wanted to be put in this position. You think he’s going to forgive Franco? As said, I just don’t think you give enough consideration to the fact that these historical figures were actually real people and not cardboard pieces. Hitler, from all we know about him, and having been re-buffed by the ungrateful buffoon, will not allow Franco to live]. Via his agents, he proposes a “Vichy” Spain: An enclave in Spain that the Germans will stay out of. Hitler, never even wanting Spain to begin with, and now wanting it pacified, agrees [Except there is a potentially massive problem here. Given the circumstances, and with the greatest respect, I really don’t think the average Spaniard actually gives a flying one what Hitler ‘agrees’. You see you’ve taken the situation in France, haven’t really understood it, and just decided that will do for Spain, but the circumstances are significantly different….]. In fact, provided that the Germans will be allowed to repair and use the rail line from the French border to Gibraltar, that enclave can be all of Spain!! [So in other words, so long as the German military get unrestricted and on demand use of the Spanish rail network, so long as Germany can conduct war from Spanish soil against Gibraltar (with all that means in return) then Spain can have its country back? But then it’s not really a Spanish ‘enclave’ is it? It’s a Spanish ‘enclave’ that the Germans can essentially do whatever they want to do with….And that doesn’t make it a neutral and the US aren’t going to be providing food and oil to this state.] Franco gets what he wants (return to power in Spain) [So what do you know about Franco that allows you to claim he is a man of so little honour that he would do anything to save his own skin?], and Hitler gets what he wants (Gibraltar). Knowing for some time that this would be his safety valve, Franco never allows the British the right to occupy the Canaries or Spanish Morocco. [But the British had plans drawn up to grab the Canaries in such a scenario – they are not going to wait.] Once the “Vichy” deal is in place, British occupation of either would violate Vichy Spain’s neutrality – making them full Axis belligerents [No it wouldn't. The British are already in situ. They won't give a stuff what dumb 'Vichy' agreement between Spain and Germany it upsets. But you think any violation would automatically make Spain a full on Axis member? You appear to have ignored when the British invaded Syria or Madagascar or the French (with British help) tried to take Dakar, Vichy became German allies did they? No, no they didn’t and even if your idea of a ‘Vichy’ was possible (which I dispute), the US would be making very clear that Spain needs to stay out of things if they want food….].
Of course, if this doesn’t come to pass, Mussolini is well aware of the importance of Gibraltar to Italy’s safety. He would be proud to tackle garrisoning Spain to protect Gibraltar. He would also be rewarded the right to loot Spain. [As said, Mussolini is proud yes, he’s a proud Italian and if you read anything about Mussolini, Italy and the build up to the war, Italian war aims, what Mussolini saw as Italy’s sphere of influence, then you would know this and you couldn’t make such statements. So what you are saying is that Mussolini would be proud to garrison Spain to protect a German held, owned and run Gibraltar? He has swapped British jailers for German ones. The right to loot Spain? For what exactly? Their massive oil reserves? Their food stocks? The Wolfram that is going to Germany? And again, ignoring any sense of reality for a second, you are suggesting that Italian troops (who proved inadequate to the task in Yugoslavia) would be given the job of occupying and subjugating the Spanish population… and they would best set about this by looting Spain first…..?]
Repair of the Spanish rail network continues regardless. [Erm…. okay so there’s even more Germans in the independent state of ‘Vichy’ Spain now? Not much of an independent state is it?]
Gibraltar is a tougher nut to crack, but, given the air power that the Germans can bring to bear, it can be practically isolated from resupply. The assaulting ground forces required are small by necessity: the available frontage is tiny! The rest of the invasion force can now be sent to the East. There is significant cost, but Gibraltar eventually falls. Allied access to the Western Mediterranean is now blocked. Now all the Axis need is Suez and the Med is an Axis lake.
North Africa:
Mussolini has been brought into the German plans for the Med, since he may be needed to garrison Spain. [….and how he would react would be interesting. Of course he would be thoroughly aghast at such a proposal. If he is brought into this prior to joining the war then it would possibly be enough for him to decide to stay out. This would be just the worst news. He is being sold “Mare Nostrum”… but with Germany holding both sets of keys instead of the British….. If he is brought in to the plan after he’s actually declared war on Britain and France, then he’s feeling pretty sick right now. He can’t stop the Germans obviously, but he can make it plain that Italy will have nothing to do with stabbing Spain in the back. He could ask for Italian occupation of Gibraltar, but Hitler isn’t that stupid (and we know how paranoid he was about his flanks) – and even if he was, as soon as the next Italian development unfolds he would grab Gibraltar back.]
Able to be enticed by German plans – as his participation in Barbarossa would later show - once informed of German plans to take Suez via Turkey, the Germans can convince him that a risky strike for the Pyramids from Libya is not a necessary (or even a good) idea. [Which of course Mussolini also thoroughly rejects, and frankly makes him sick to his stomach and wishes he could have been more like Franco and tried to stay out of the war. Italy got nothing from France, he is seeing the Germans encroach on his backyard in Spain. He makes plans to take Egypt as quickly as possible and without German help]. Furthermore, they can convince him that it’s in the Axis interest to sucker the British into a trap deep in Libya as Suez falls. He pulls his forces back deep into Libya to set the trap. This proceeds long before the British are ready for O’Connor’s Raid. The Italians slip out of their positions in Egypt in the night and are well on their way to safety. Continuous good use of land mines make pursuit by the British difficult, even though they are better motorized. Most likely, the Italians escape to better positions deep in Libya. But, if they don’t, they’re no worse off than they were historically. Rommel soon arrives, and the situation is secure. How deep do the British end up in Libya? Probably about as deep as historically. Possibly deeper. [This whole scenario can be discounted. As said, Mussolini NEEDS, never mind wants, to take Suez. The war has immediately developed in a really, really bad way – and he hasn’t even suffered a defeat yet! But that state of affairs will soon end and defeat is just around the corner.]
Meanwhile, the British pursue the historical actions in Greece and Syria (same historical circumstances), with the historical results. They are thrown out of Greece and Crete, and Vichy Syria disappears. [Why? If you believe Mussolini is so malleable, then he won’t have any troops to attack Greece – they will all be on occupation duty while looting Spain and cowering in downtown Libya as part of a trap for the British……]
When Turkey kicks off soon after, Rommel will be in good position to shred their positions in Libya and press them too hard to escape Libya as German forces bear down from Turkey. [Soon after? Again, suspending disbelief for a moment, you have the Germans attacking Spain in the height of summer and expect this to be over after a few weeks]. So when is soon after? And what do the Germans do about getting to Turkey?]
Now, Spain, Gibraltar and Suez are connected to Germany’s central rail net. [Ooohh is that like the Orient Express? I must say, it sounds like the Germans did a thoroughly professional job on the Spanish rail network. They have been busy little bees….] They need only position token forces in the area, assured that overwhelming force can be delivered by rail as soon as any one of them is threatened. [So if it’s so easy to reinforce everywhere at the drop of a hat why didn’t the Germans have token forces in France then? Weren’t the French part of this ‘Central Rail Net’?]
Turkey:
After Yugoslavia and Greece, a German army group is now on the Turkish border. [So not soon after then?] The Turks, having fought for centuries to hold on to their European holdings, can’t bear to part with them and have much of their force on the European side of the Straits (confirmed by SPI). They garrison the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, but don’t expect the Sea of Marmara to be vulnerable. And they don’t really expect any invasion by the Germans anyway. Old Allies from the First World War, they figure the Germans will want to wait till they are ready to join voluntarily.
[Apologies but at this point I rather gave up. The following comments are meant to be light-hearted and not a dig at you.
But the Germans, having nearly a year to plan the invasion, have secured river barges that can fit on rail cars and built trailers for them. They blitz to the European side of the Sea of Marmara. They then cross it via those barges to the Asian side (with the Luftwaffe assuring no Turkish air or naval interference). Perhaps some paratroops are used to make absolutely sure that crossing is a success. Once established, they rush divisions across, which spread out to isolate the defenses of the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. Everything on the European side of the Straits is now pocketed. They, being of poor quality, quickly wither. The huge force facing them soon overwhelms them. The Germans are now fully over the Straits and into Asiatic Turkey proper. The Turkish rail, same standard as most of Europe, is easy to repair.
The Turkish army, while about four times the size of the Spanish, is of no better quality: The Turks have spent the last 50 years surrendering their entire empire and the Turkish division that was sent to Korea, later, was a joke of a division. SPI depicts most of them as static. Having lost a large fraction of their force at the Straits, they are incapable of mounting a serious defense of the interior of Turkey, due to the huge breadth of the defense lines needed. [Whooah hold on, why don’t Turkey get a Vichy Turkey. France got one. Spain got one. Why can’t Turkey have one?]
While this is going on, Stalin is getting very nervous. He complains to Hitler. Perhaps he even makes noises about declaring war. Hitler mollifies him with another of his coups! He proposes that they split Turkey just like they did Poland! Adolf assures Joe that he is only invading Turkey to get to Suez. So, Russia can have everything east of Sivas. [Great – so Stalin is happy with that despite the fact that the one thing that he really cares about - the Straits - is in German hands?] Stalin, never intending to go to war with the Germans while they appear so powerful, thinks he’s the one that has pulled off the coup! [He certainly is a tricky trickster that Hitler isn’t he?] He’s gained territory in Turkey and Baku is now about 1400km from the Germans, instead of the 700km it would have been had he not acted. (Of course, it is still far less than the 2900km it was historically 😊).
With Soviet help, Turkey is quickly subdued (though the Germans have a full year to achieve that if necessary). Leaving an Italian garrison (perhaps augmented by Armenians and Kurds). [Those Italians get everywhere don’t they? The Germans need to be careful they are taking over the world!] And a small force on the (new) Soviet border, a huge force now barrels towards Suez. Trapped between the Africa Corps and this huge force, the British 8th Army can, at best, hope to escape to flee out of the Med; at worst, to be trapped and destroyed. Once Suez is captured, the work begins to ruin the canal [Like you do…… ] The RN, at best, fled before Suez was even in danger. [Ohhh I say – don’t tell Winnie] At worst, they are now trapped in the Axis lake, where they are doomed [Thank-you Private Frazer]. The RM can now deliver supplies to Suez or further into Syria via Athens to Damascus – bypassing Turkish rail lines. [Lol - and they could have headed into the Indian Ocean but some total moron in the German Army apparently ordered the Canal to be sabotaged!!]
Malta never even becomes an issue, and withers without supply till it surrenders. [No GC for Malta then, they will be devastated….]
Japan:
Barbarossa having not happened in 1941, the Japanese are very nervous about the Soviets (who trounced them at Nomonhan earlier) staring down their throats at them from Siberia. They don’t have the confidence to launch the invasion of French Indochina or the Rising Sun offensive. They sit on their hands and wait. No Pearl Harbor means no US in the war in 1941. [Oh.. that’s a shame isn’t it? Winnie was so counting on that too].
Even if this doesn’t happen, and the Japanese go ahead, Hitler, upon hearing of Pearl Harbor, decides NOT to declare war on the US since he hasn’t gotten to the Gates of Moscow at that time, and isn’t quite as cocksure as he was at that point historically. [Now that is genuinely funny. He was ‘cocksure’ enough to do it when he was in the suburbs of Moscow sure, but you are saying he wouldn’t be having taken Gibraltar and Suez, turned the Med into an Axis lake and evicted the British…..mmmmm] The US still doesn’t end up at war with Germany for another year [Well the isolationists will be throwing a party…..].
Russia:
Finally, in the summer of 1942, Barbarossa kicks off. But, this time, there is no war in North Africa. Rommel and his Africa Corps (plus quite a bit more from the Turkish operations) are actually in Turkey, heading for Baku (where he ultimately earns the sobriquet of “The Caucasus Fox”). [Let’s hope that naughty fox doesn’t repeat his mistakes in North Africa, ignore orders and outrun his logistics!].
Russia, having maintained a peacetime production schedule, is not much more powerful than they were at the summer of 1941. And they haven’t yet learned any lessons about the poor state of their forces. The Germans, meanwhile, have continued wartime production after a light year of combat. They’re even stronger than they had been in 1941. Plus, their offensive options are much greater, with the frontage in Turkey added to the Soviet defense needs, thinning those defenses out. The year of extra planning helps as well. Barbarossa proceeds even better than it did historically. Once Baku falls (and it will, along with plenty of other oil centers in the Caucasus), the Soviets are heavily impacted by the loss of oil and Germany is ultimately benefited by the addition of oil. The tipping point is reached and Leningrad, Moscow, Stalingrad, and Baku fall before the first-year ends. Russia is now fatally compromised. 1943 is just a mopping up operation as the front reaches the Urals. [Ooooh be afraid, be very afraid……]
US:
By the time the US can field forces in Europe in 1944, much of the German army is back from Russia and it’s too late. [Hahahahaha I bet the isolationists are feeling pretty bloody stupid right now………] The US must devote huge resources to much greater than historical ground forces to partly replace the, now missing, Russians. This will sink a lot of Naval Task Forces before they are even made: Japan will be able to hold out in the Pacific [Wow, that's a very bold comment indeed... How many ships do you think have to cancelled or not ordered to allow Japan to hold out in the Pacific?? – even remain a threat to Hawaii and the West Coast [I trust that was a tongue in cheek comment? I would have loved to see Japan try and invade Hawaii……]. While the US develops the Atom Bomb, the Germans continue to develop Sarin. Germany gets back to work on a very serious navy and air force. If the bomb is used (tough to do with the skies filled with Me-262’s), London gets Sarin (or New York gets it, if German rocket development is at that point). World War II morphs into a Cold War. [Well that’s not a very happy ending is it boys and girls?].
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