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warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/24/2020 9:28:25 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
It would be the opposite of a day invasion. Had they obtained air superiority, they would have done everything by day - no night operations due to the RN. In a night invasion, they do everything at night. That way the RAF is not engaged.
warspite1
Firstly you totally, and pointedly, ignore the question of what the Luftwaffe are actually doing in Northern France. No detail, nothing. They must be doing something, right? But what?
But you also continue to mention a night invasion. I can’t have understood correctly what you are suggesting so I’ll await clarification before commenting further. I don’t know the relevance of this, what a night invasion is and who is contemplating this...
quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
They didn't stick it back into France in some desperate bid to save them.
warspite1
Are you being ironic? Is that a joke? What do you mean by this?
quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
If there's no BoB, aircraft production that historically was needed to replace those losses, could be redirected to other aircraft production. Why is that so hard to grasp?
warspite1
Well for one thing you’ve not said what the Luftwaffe are doing in Northern France so that’s a bit of a black hole at present. As for aircraft production, you need Goering to understand what aircraft he needs and the training required to man them. There is very little in Goering’s performance in World War II to suggest he has the intelligence to grasp what Hitler will be asking of him and what that means for his Luftwaffe. There is also the added complication of his non-relationship with the Kriegsmarine – pretty important in the real war – far, far more important in this alternate scenario.
But as said, at the moment all I know is that there are a couple of air fleets possibly in Northern France doing [insert when known].
quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
This is getting repetitive. No way the Japs tackle the US with the USSR unencumbered. They have other options, as I've listed.
warspite1
You are right, this is getting repetitive beyond belief. You appear confused over some of the chronology (certainly when the oil embargo started) and you don’t seem to understand the limitations that the embargo had on the Japanese economy, not to mention the earlier embargo on strategic materials. Let me try and make it easier for you. We’ll break it down into bite size chunks.
Firstly let me start with the bleedin’ obvious. Neither of us know what would have happened because a potential new variable has been added to the mix. Barbarossa does not take place in 1941. But what we can do is look at what actually happened and then try and work through the likely effects the new variable would have – and whether this would likely have led to an altering of the situation.
So what does that mean for Japan, the USSR and the USA?
Well, I think it’s obvious – and hopefully even you can concede – that Stalin is not going to get involved in the Far East. He only signed a treaty with Japan in April and with Germany seemingly winning everywhere on the European continent, there is no way Stalin will take any risks.
Of course Stalin knowing this and what the Japanese think they know can be two different things. But, given Japan’s situation do we really need to worry about that? The answer of course is no.
Japan is not going to withdraw from China. We know this. We know every action taken by Japan in the build-up and then during World War II, makes crystal clear that this is not up for negotiation with the people who hold power.
The US embargo strategic materials in July 1940 (and added scrap iron in September) and this quickly starts to hurt the Japanese. This can’t continue forever and the Japanese have to start thinking about what to do. Operations in the south are studied as early as late 1940.
The Japanese and the USSR signed a peace treaty in April 1941. The Japanese are free to move south but of course there is no guarantee it will be safe to do so.
In real life in June 1941 Germany invaded the USSR and that meant that the Japanese could be certain that the USSR would not be attacking Manchuria. Hence the move the following month in seizing the airfields in FIC.
What has changed between real life and this scenario? Well Germany hasn’t launched Barbarossa. The Japanese are still having strategic materials embargoed. Not good. Oil has yet to be embargoed but without scrap iron and vital lubricants etc the Japanese military will start to fail.
So what are the options?
1. Leave China. We know they won’t.
2. Don’t leave China but don’t take aggressive action against the US, British and Dutch. In deciding on this path they must accept the current difficult economic and military situation and have good grounds to believe the Americans will later up the ante too. We know they can’t accept this – they need the embargoed materials and the longer they leave it the less chance they will have of taking action because of the effects the existing embargo have had in the meantime.
3. Launch the southern attack anyway, starting with the capture of airfields in FIC (which leads to the freezing of assets and the oil embargo) and then attack either the British and/or Dutch and/or the US.
At the same time they will reinforce Manchuria to the extent they can just in case (as they did in real life). In taking this action they will see what Germany are achieving in Europe and North Africa and will, quite reasonably conclude, that the USSR would be mad to attack them at this time.
They need the oil of the NEI as a minimum. So the only question is, do they attack just the NEI? Well there are two massive problems here a) without Malaya/Singapore and The PI, attacking the NEI is all the more difficult and b) they leave themselves open to surprise attack from the British and US.
Quite clearly these two problems can be overcome by a) attacking the NEI after stepping stones have been created in PI and Malaya, and b) achieving that by surprising the British and US instead.
Quite why you see no Barbarossa as a reason to attack the NEI but not to attack the US is absolutely beyond me. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. If the Japanese weren’t going to attack the US (because they were scared of a non-existent Soviet threat), then they wouldn’t attack the British/NEI either would they?
But iirc you have suggested two paths for the Japanese in this alternate scenario. Either option makes no sense and gives them the biggest problems (ignoring of course what we know, i.e. the Japan was screwed regardless).
a) They do nothing and gradually the embargo bites deeper, the military becomes worse and worse off, until possibly the US run out of patience and embargo oil too anyway
b) They attack the NEI (and maybe British too, who knows?) and so leave themselves open to a surprise attack by a reinforced PI.
You are desperate for the US not to join the war in December 1941 so you have contrived a set of moves that simply defy logic and beggar belief.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
Mussolini will be let in on the full plan (which includes Turkey), so that he can cooperate in trapping the British deep into Libya. That will be a huge coup for him.
.... and speaking of Spanish Morocco, what do the Germans do about this territory just a stone's throw from Southern Spain?
Nothing. French NW Africa blocks it from the Med. And the Spanish will surrender after Madrid falls. Just like France. Maybe a Vichy Spain.
warspite1
Same applies to Mussolini. I am not going to repeat all that I have said about why Mussolini won’t act the way you want him to - all of which remains firmly relevant. But you appear to believe now that the plan is one big trap to lure the British into Libya…..
What a great plan. So what you are now saying is that Mussolini and his 10th Army saps are the bait in the German masterpiece. They move into Egypt and encamp – how long for? Who decides when they turn tail?…. And on what basis do they know that the British will follow them?… of course in your mind the British will follow them at just the right time (for the barely mobile Italians) won’t they? I mean they won’t attack before the Italians retreat (Compass re-visited) they won’t attack just as the Italians are retreating (so Compass re-visited but a bigger massacre of on-the-move, strung out Italians) and they won’t simply not attack?
But in determining what the British will do, do you actually know what Compass was designed to achieve? Have you even bothered to look up the original scope of the raid? The size of the force? You just appear to assume that the British intended all along to drive on Tripoli (where, according to you, Graziani has fallen back to).
I notice you make no response to the numbers of troops required to garrison Spain. How very telling. Scarily high figure isn’t it? You think Spain will be much different? And you think Hitler will leave such a strategic holding to be covered by the Italians?
According to you Germany will do nothing about French Morocco….. Really? Yeah that’s right, Hitler felt the same way about Crete. Couldn’t see the need to own an island from which Ploesti could be bombed…. And what? You think he’s happy for any strategic openings through the holding of Gibraltar to be negated by the enemy holding the southern side of the Straits? In which world does that make sense?
Well given you believe Hitler would have even considered invading Spain, and that despite his monstrous betrayal, Franco is going to be welcomed back in the Axis fold and all is forgotten, I can see why such simplistic nonsense appeals. I mean you’ve totally forgotten that Spain are without oil and food and are only surviving in real life thanks to the US and Britain. Now, with your mate Franco back on the throne as Hitler’s puppet (and a fully paid up member of the Axis) there is now a humanitarian crisis on the cards… but hey, never mind a few thousand more Spanish troops dead – courtesy of their ‘friends’ the Germans - to add to the butcher’s bill from the civil war, a great many more women and children slaughtered, homeless, starving… no probs – we’ve got Gibraltar so all is good……
You’ve been playing with cardboard counters and pixels for too long – you seem to have completely forgotten about the real world, real life concerns, real life motivations and what actually matters.
The easy part (relatively) was to defeat the regular Spanish forces and occupy Spain. The more difficult bit was subduing the countryside to secure supply lines and allow for an assault on Gibraltar to take place without distraction. The harder part still was taking The Rock as the British have air bases in French Morocco to harry the attackers and support the Royal Navy.
But then the German problems really start. No one that accepts the Germans will be willingly supported as leader of Spain following this outrageous betrayal..... You thought (assuming you gave it any thought) that the manpower drain in the Balkans was heavy? Welcome to the Iberian Peninsular, where the people are hungry, starving, and really rather quite angry....
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