RE: The question to ask about The Italians (Full Version)

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warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/27/2020 5:15:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Barbarossa was entirely Hitler's project. Yet Mussolini was persuaded to contribute a significant fraction of his force to it. So your claim that he would never cooperate with his German ally was false.

warspite1

And lastly, the point in bold. If you need to mis-represent what I've said then you know you've lost.

I have never even suggested, not for one moment, that Mussolini would refuse to co-operate with Hitler. That is total rubbish and you should be ashamed.

Apart from anything else I told you that Mussolini would demand participation in the Spanish attack (like he did with BoB). Mussolini telling Hitler he is launching an attack on Egypt - in conjunction with the attack on Spain is hardly refusing to co-operate is it? Get real.

If real life Hitler was happy for Mussolini to launch his parallel war then there is absolutely no reason why he would not want Mussolini to attack. In fact its pretty obvious why he would be happy for him to do so - it would distract the British from the forthcoming attack on Gibraltar. Why is that so difficult to understand?




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/27/2020 10:13:41 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

A night invasion with no follow up reinforcements would be crushed. There would be few if any tanks and heavy weapons landed. The Royal Navy would come down and make lots of divots where the Germans where.


Of course there would be follow-up reinforcements - on subsequent nights.

Bombers dropping flares while the Fairy Battle fighters and other fighters shoot down the transports.

Destroyers, Motor Launches, and other small vessels destroying the slow and heavily loaded barges, No more sea lift.


The BEF left France without heavy weapons. They're not going to be very formidable for quite a while.

The British still had an intact armour brigade. The 3.7 inch AA gun was their equivalent to the good German 88 Flak which was used as an AT gun. The British would have used theirs as AT weapons and the 40mm Bofors as well. Those were from their AAA units which are not engaging the bombers which are not flying over England.

The RN is the issue. But, if the transport is fast enough, they're out of the channel by the time the RN gets there.

Barges are not fast. They also might need a vessel to push them. Unloading the barges over the beach will not be fast unless they unload at a working port. With no Luftwaffe flying overhead, all of Bomber Command plus what Coastal command can spare will be bombing the invasion. Even Fulmars.

But, you're missing the point. The point is that the British can't discount any invasion plan. So, just because one element of a supposed plan is missing, it doesn't mean the invasion can be discounted. That's because they may just not understand how the Germans are going to come at them.

I am not missing the point. The British would still prepare their defense. But if they say a bunch of transports and Gigants show up, then they will know what is happening. A Recon Spitfire would be hard for the Germans to shoot down.

quote:

Therefore, the first phase of the German air offensive took place over the English Channel.

In the second phase of attacks, shipping, coastal airfields, radar and stations south of London were attacked during 8–18 August.


In other words, prior to Eagle Day, the Luftwaffe wasn't flying over the interior England itself - where the battle was very advantageous to the British.

You mean that England south of London is not part of England? [&:]

I suggest that you look at a map.[8|]



So do you prefer Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naoknj1ebqI

or

do you prefer Comfortably numb

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FrOQC-zEog

You should look at some of the terrain that you want the panzer forces to drive through in Spain, especially number 5:

Basque in the beauty of the countryside

https://www.bmw.com/en/automotive-life/spain-road-trip-with-scenic-drives.html#pwjt-Baskenland

Of course, that is with more modern roads. What light infantry could do to armour with gas bombs, other explosives, light artillery capable of be transported by horses/mules, or even ATRs, especially if they can get some 20mm ones from Finland.

Also note the nice road running right along the coast - an easy target for naval gunfire. [:D]

In many places, the Spanish Basque beaches have wooded hills right by them, perfect to drop off commandos to go inland and wreck havoc. Maybe linking up with guerillas as well.

After knocking about the Spanish hills and mountains, you want Germany to invade Turkey? European Turkey might be easy but unless you get a Navy capable of handling the Royal Navy then you won't be able to invade Asian Turkey unless you do a Black Sea invasion with naval forces there. This would be opposed by Turkey of course, but maybe some Soviet subs since there is no ship seen when they are submerged and engage the enemy.

That means that you will have to cross the Turkish straits.

quote:

The strait is 61 kilometres (38 mi) long, and 1.2 to 6 kilometres (0.7 to 3.7 mi) wide, averaging 55 metres (180 ft) deep with a maximum depth of 103 metres (338 ft) at its narrowest point at Nara Burnu, abreast Çanakkale.[3] There are two major currents through the strait: a surface current flows from the Black Sea towards the Aegean Sea, and a more saline undercurrent flows in the opposite direction.[4]

The Dardanelles is unique in many respects. The very narrow and winding shape of the strait is more akin to that of a river. It is considered one of the most hazardous, crowded, difficult and potentially dangerous waterways in the world. The currents produced by the tidal action in the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara are such that ships under sail must await at anchorage for the right conditions before entering the Dardanelles.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dardanelles#Crossings

Think Gallipoli for that area. Difficult for armour, difficult for a pontoon bridge as well. There is no bridge across it now and there hasn't been one for a long time. Just fire artillery at people trying to build one or float explosive and/or fire boats down stream. Do you think that the Turks would allow any ferries to be captured?

quote:

The Bosporus (/ˈbɒspərəs/) or Bosphorus (/-pər-, -fər-/;[1] Ancient Greek: Βόσπορος Bosporos [bós.po.ros]; also known as the Strait of Istanbul; Turkish: İstanbul Boğazı, colloquially Boğaz) is a narrow, natural strait . . .

Most of the shores of the strait, except for those in the north, are heavily settled, straddled by the city of Istanbul . . . extending inland from both coasts.

Together with the Dardanelles, the Bosporus forms the Turkish Straits.
.
.
.
The limits of the Bosporus are defined as the connecting line between the lighthouses of Rumeli Feneri and Anadolu Feneri in the north, and between the Ahırkapı Feneri and the Kadıköy İnciburnu Feneri in the south. Between these limits, the strait is 31 km (17 nmi) long, with a width of 3,329 m (1.798 nmi) at the northern entrance and 2,826 m (1.526 nmi) at the southern entrance. Its maximum width is 3,420 m (1.85 nmi) between Umuryeri and Büyükdere Limanı, and minimum width 700 m (0.38 nmi) between Kandilli Point and Aşiyan.

The depth of the Bosporus varies from 13 to 110 m (43 to 361 ft) in midstream with an average of 65 m (213 ft). The deepest location is between Kandilli and Bebek with 110 m (360 ft). The shallowest locations are off Kadıköy İnciburnu on the northward route with 18 m (59 ft) and off Aşiyan Point on the southward route with 13 m (43 ft).[8]

The smallest section is on a sill located in front of Dolmabahçe Palace. It is around 38 000 square meter. The Southbound flow is 16 000 m3/s (fresh water at surface) and the northbound flow is 11 000 m3/s (salt water near bottom).[9] Some even speak about a Black Sea undersea river.

The Golden Horn is an estuary off the main strait that historically acted as a moat to protect Old Istanbul from attack, as well as providing a sheltered anchorage for the imperial navies of various empires until the 19th century, after which it became a historic neighborhood at the heart of the city, popular with tourists and locals alike.
.
.
.
Between its northern limits at Rumeli Feneri and Anadolu Feneri and its southern ones at Ahırkapı Feneri and Kadıköy İnciburnu Feneri, there are numerous dangerous points for large-scale maritime traffic that require sharp turns and management of visual obstructions. Famously, the stretch between Kandilli Point and Aşiyan requires a 45-degree course alteration in a location where the currents can reach 7 to 8 knots (3.6 to 4.1 m/s). To the south, at Yeniköy, the necessary course alteration is 80 degrees. Compounding these difficult changes in trajectory, the rear and forward sight lines at Kandilli and Yeniköy are also completely blocked prior to and during the course alteration, making it impossible for ships approaching from the opposite direction to see around these bends.
(Hey, great places to hide machine guns and artillery to fire down the strait without be seen from directly across the strait.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosporus#Crossings

There are overhead satellite images of both locations.

So the Germans would have to fight down a narrow peninsula in order to cross at one end of the Turkish straits where the land is rough. Artillery fire from Asia would support the defenders in Europe. Then the Germans would have to try an cross to the other side. In WWI, there were Ottoman forts in the area which still might be there with BIG guns. Have fun trying to do this fast.

The other end has a very large city on both sides. City fighting is not fast and is a tank trap if not supported by infantry, while in fact it is infantry country. Then cross to the other side with a swift current pushing the crossing vessels sideways, then more city fighting. Again, artillery fire from the Asian side to help the European side.

Both routes favor the defenders and are anti-armour territory.




Aurelian -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 3:30:10 AM)

To invade the Brits, the Germans need air superiority over the Channel. So there was going to be a BoB regardless.

And does anyone really think the RN would just stand by while barges full of troops were being towed across the Channel?

And the landings themselves.... The German army wanted a far wider landing zone than their navy could cover.

And it all had to be done before rough weather put a stop to it. Barges don't like rough weather.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_anti-invasion_preparations_of_the_Second_World_War

And this all assumes that the principal players didn't act they way that they did. In other words, Hitler did not decide in July 1940 to invade Russia in 1941. Goring actually knew how to run the Luftwaffe. Churchill, Tovey, Dowding, and the rest doing nothing to counter.

And invading Russia in 1942? How many divisions would be tied down on garrison duty in England? And Spain if Hitler was crackpot enough to invade them? All those divisions subtracted from invading Russia. And what about Russia. The Red Army would of been in a much better position.

Just might regret getting into this. But oh well.......




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 1:03:21 PM)

Not to mention that if a little storm comes up that the Channel can be just a wee bit wavy.
[sm=happy0005.gif]




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 3:29:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Okay let’s deal with this another way because you are not getting it. We’ll take the Wiki article first because that, in terms of your credibility, is clearly the most damaging.


Posting a wiki article that supports my position is damaging?!!

quote:

I mean we can agree/disagree on what may or may not have happened and that is fine and all part of the fun of debate. But what is more concerning is how you see ‘evidence’. Case in point – you produced this Wiki excerpt. You’ve produced this one paragraph from one Wiki article and produced this as ‘evidence’ of what Japan would definitely not do – even though the circumstances changed! That is the height of narrow minded, limited thinking.


Ignoring the wiki article because it is devastating to your claims is much more narrow minded.

quote:

Furthermore, within the Japanese high command there was a disagreement over what to do about the Soviet threat to the north of their Manchurian territories. The tipping point came just after the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in late June 1941. With the Soviets tied down, the high command concluded that a "strike south" would solve Japan's problems with the United States, most notably the increasing American concerns about Japan's moves in China, and the possibility of a crippling oil embargo on Japan.

What is this saying? It is reflecting what happened in real life, it is saying that because of Barbarossa, any concerns Japan had about going south were swept away because there was no threat from the Soviet Union. Since posting you have metaphorically been jumping up and down in a state of high excitement at the sentence in bold. Because what you have decided, without bothering to actually think about things, is that this MUST mean, it HAS to mean, that no Barbarossa means no invasion of the FIC, which means no embargo, which means no NEI requirement – I’m the winner, I’m the winner!!


Pretty much it. Except that I've been saying that before the article was found. No way the Japs launch the Rising Sun offensive till the Russians are tied down.

quote:

Japan has a number of problems. She won’t quit China.


She's been in China for years, and left it basically on hold for the duration of the Pacific War. Clearly, it's not as urgent as you think.

quote:

I know you struggle with the whole FIC thing but please, its not that difficult. The Japanese invade FIC (in limited fashion) in September 1940. This led the US – already embargoing certain key goods from sale to Japan – to adding even more materials including iron and steel scrap. The embargo of strategic materials was hurting Japan, but the US stopped short of oil for the moment. But Japan knows that Roosevelt can turn the screw at any time by adding oil to that ever growing list…. We know in real life it was Japan’s second move on the FIC that led to the oil embargo, but the point is, it doesn’t have to be that.


For sure, the historical trigger for the oil embargo doesn't happen. If it still gets embargoed at some later date, the Japanese still have options other than war with the US, as I've already outlined. The US really does not want to join the world war. Roosevelt's hands really are tied.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 3:34:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

What staff study.


This is it.

quote:

You said this scenario has been proven to work, it's been gamed. So.

- What are the Luftwaffe doing in Northern France?


Demonstrating.

quote:

- The Germans are at war with the UK. Why, despite their massive aerial advantage are they doing nothing about the British?


They are going to purse a Med strategy.

quote:

- In what world does it make sense to leave British industries alone, free to churn out the materials needed to help re-build the shattered army brought back from France?


It makes sense because it makes the Med an Axis lake - with all the benefits thereof.

quote:

It's July 1940, the Germans have the British on the run and those pesky islanders won't give in. Why now take all the pressure off. Militarily it doesn't make sense, knowing the personalities of those involved it doesn't make sense.


Actually, Hitler was an English admirer. He didn't want to invade Britain. He thought they should be on the same side.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 3:39:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Except you haven't answered the basics. You are running ahead with a 1942 Barbarossa but you have still made no sensible case for what the Luftwaffe are doing in Northern France.


Demonstrating.

quote:

You've not confirmed the number of division that the Germans will be allocating to the Spanish operation or the make up.


I said a full army group.

quote:

There is one train line that runs from France to Spain as far as I know, and the train gauges are different. How many divisions can be properly supported? Will the Regia Marina or Kriegsmarine need to assist the supply situation? What will the Luftwaffe be able to provide in support? What will that mean to the existing operations in the North Sea and Bay of Biscay? You said all this has been gamed?


One rail line per army group in Barbarossa as well. The amount of supply that can be pushed down a rail line is enormous.

quote:

You've still made no sensible case for what happens to Spain post 'victory'. The cost of occupying Spain will be enormous - Hitler knew and feared this - so what are you going to do? How big a drain is this going to be - even if you get the Italians to take up some of the slack?

How are the Spanish population that Germany has just taken on responsibility for going to get fed?


Far less of a drain than the Desert War.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 3:42:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

And lastly, the point in bold. If you need to mis-represent what I've said then you know you've lost.

I have never even suggested, not for one moment, that Mussolini would refuse to co-operate with Hitler.


That was the impression I got.

quote:

Mussolini telling Hitler he is launching an attack on Egypt - in conjunction with the attack on Spain is hardly refusing to co-operate is it? Get real.


Not if Hitler's plan is now to trap the British deep into Libya in 1941. Italian participation in Barbarossa makes it clear that Mussolini CAN be persuaded to cooperate with that plan.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 3:50:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Posting a wiki article that supports my position is damaging?!!

Ignoring the wiki article because it is devastating to your claims is much more narrow minded.

warspite1

No you just don't get it. It doesn't support your position and it doesn't hurt let alone devastate my position. And one thing I haven't done is ignore it. It's an important point to debate I've not been ignoring it the whole way along. The circumstances have changed. The scenario now calls for a decision to be made by Japan, just as per real life. But in making that decision one element has changed, one element only. The hole Japan finds herself in hasn't changed. The mix of hawks and doves, of navy and army, of Russia and the south hasn't changed.

But you just can't seem to grasp the real world picture.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Except that I've been saying that before the article was found. No way the Japs launch the Rising Sun offensive till the Russians are tied down.

For sure, the historical trigger for the oil embargo doesn't happen. If it still gets embargoed at some later date, the Japanese still have options other than war with the US, as I've already outlined.

warspite1

Before the article was 'found' wow. This is War in the Pacific 101 for crying out loud.

So we suspend disbelief and say Japan goes with your do nothing approach. Next month the US unilaterally embargo oil. Let's be clear, are you saying Japan continues to do nothing? Her navy is burning 400 tons an hour but the Japanese continue to do nothing? Is that what you are saying? So what is this massive array of options that has just opened for the Japanese thanks to getting their oil supply almost completely cut off, her assets frozen and all the existing embargoes - including lubricants, scrap metal etc in place?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

She's been in China for years, and left it basically on hold for the duration of the Pacific War.

warspite1

That's funny. The war in China is on hold. Must be profit making then eh?








warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:00:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Demonstrating.

warspite1

I suspect they are. One can imagine Adolf Galland with his placard leading his disgruntled airmen up to Luftwaffe HQ. Sing-along now: "All we are saying, is give war a chance".

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

They are going to purse a Med strategy.

warspite1

Good choice. If done properly.....

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

It makes sense because it makes the Med an Axis lake - with all the benefits thereof.

warspite1

Well there are benefits to be derived but as we've already firmly established, not as many as you think, the cost to the Germans will be considerable and - now we know the UK is being untouched - much of the benefits that were gained are being handed back.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Actually, Hitler was an English admirer. He didn't want to invade Britain. He thought they should be on the same side.

warspite1

What has what Hitler thought of the UK pre Churchill telling him where he could shove his Deutschland Uber Alles actually got to do with anything.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:04:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Bombers dropping flares while the Fairy Battle fighters and other fighters shoot down the transports.

Destroyers, Motor Launches, and other small vessels destroying the slow and heavily loaded barges, No more sea lift.


The movie "Darkest Hour" showed Churchill being briefed about the Germans using fast motor boats for the invasion. Clearly, it was a very real concern.

quote:

The British still had an intact armour brigade. The 3.7 inch AA gun was their equivalent to the good German 88 Flak which was used as an AT gun. The British would have used theirs as AT weapons and the 40mm Bofors as well. Those were from their AAA units which are not engaging the bombers which are not flying over England.


The British never used AAA in an anti-tank role in the Desert War. Their attitude was that "if it was meant to be used against tanks, they would have called it an anti-tank gun."

quote:

I am not missing the point. The British would still prepare their defense. But if they say a bunch of transports and Gigants show up, then they will know what is happening. A Recon Spitfire would be hard for the Germans to shoot down.


The point is: They can't discount the invasion threat regardless of what the Germans do or don't do.

quote:

You mean that England south of London is not part of England? [&:]


Still not to the point that the bombers were beyond Me-109 range.

quote:

So do you prefer Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naoknj1ebqI

or

do you prefer Comfortably numb

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FrOQC-zEog


I prefer SPI.

quote:

You should look at some of the terrain that you want the panzer forces to drive through in Spain, especially number 5:

Basque in the beauty of the countryside

https://www.bmw.com/en/automotive-life/spain-road-trip-with-scenic-drives.html#pwjt-Baskenland

Of course, that is with more modern roads. What light infantry could do to armour with gas bombs, other explosives, light artillery capable of be transported by horses/mules, or even ATRs, especially if they can get some 20mm ones from Finland.

Also note the nice road running right along the coast - an easy target for naval gunfire. [:D]

In many places, the Spanish Basque beaches have wooded hills right by them, perfect to drop off commandos to go inland and wreck havoc. Maybe linking up with guerillas as well.


Germany, which has easily conquered most of Europe between 1939-1941, over all sorts of terrain, isn't going to be brooked by the puny Spaniards. Their force is smaller than the BEF by itself - and that's from Warspite1's numbers, not mine. And, all they have to do is get to Madrid, whereupon Spain will surrender and her forces will dissolve.

quote:

After knocking about the Spanish hills and mountains, you want Germany to invade Turkey? European Turkey might be easy but unless you get a Navy capable of handling the Royal Navy then you won't be able to invade Asian Turkey unless you do a Black Sea invasion with naval forces there. This would be opposed by Turkey of course, but maybe some Soviet subs since there is no ship seen when they are submerged and engage the enemy.

That means that you will have to cross the Turkish straits.

quote:

The strait is 61 kilometres (38 mi) long, and 1.2 to 6 kilometres (0.7 to 3.7 mi) wide, averaging 55 metres (180 ft) deep with a maximum depth of 103 metres (338 ft) at its narrowest point at Nara Burnu, abreast Çanakkale.[3] There are two major currents through the strait: a surface current flows from the Black Sea towards the Aegean Sea, and a more saline undercurrent flows in the opposite direction.[4]

The Dardanelles is unique in many respects. The very narrow and winding shape of the strait is more akin to that of a river. It is considered one of the most hazardous, crowded, difficult and potentially dangerous waterways in the world. The currents produced by the tidal action in the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara are such that ships under sail must await at anchorage for the right conditions before entering the Dardanelles.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dardanelles#Crossings

Think Gallipoli for that area. Difficult for armour, difficult for a pontoon bridge as well. There is no bridge across it now and there hasn't been one for a long time. Just fire artillery at people trying to build one or float explosive and/or fire boats down stream. Do you think that the Turks would allow any ferries to be captured?

quote:

The Bosporus (/ˈbɒspərəs/) or Bosphorus (/-pər-, -fər-/;[1] Ancient Greek: Βόσπορος Bosporos [bós.po.ros]; also known as the Strait of Istanbul; Turkish: İstanbul Boğazı, colloquially Boğaz) is a narrow, natural strait . . .

Most of the shores of the strait, except for those in the north, are heavily settled, straddled by the city of Istanbul . . . extending inland from both coasts.

Together with the Dardanelles, the Bosporus forms the Turkish Straits.
.
.
.
The limits of the Bosporus are defined as the connecting line between the lighthouses of Rumeli Feneri and Anadolu Feneri in the north, and between the Ahırkapı Feneri and the Kadıköy İnciburnu Feneri in the south. Between these limits, the strait is 31 km (17 nmi) long, with a width of 3,329 m (1.798 nmi) at the northern entrance and 2,826 m (1.526 nmi) at the southern entrance. Its maximum width is 3,420 m (1.85 nmi) between Umuryeri and Büyükdere Limanı, and minimum width 700 m (0.38 nmi) between Kandilli Point and Aşiyan.

The depth of the Bosporus varies from 13 to 110 m (43 to 361 ft) in midstream with an average of 65 m (213 ft). The deepest location is between Kandilli and Bebek with 110 m (360 ft). The shallowest locations are off Kadıköy İnciburnu on the northward route with 18 m (59 ft) and off Aşiyan Point on the southward route with 13 m (43 ft).[8]

The smallest section is on a sill located in front of Dolmabahçe Palace. It is around 38 000 square meter. The Southbound flow is 16 000 m3/s (fresh water at surface) and the northbound flow is 11 000 m3/s (salt water near bottom).[9] Some even speak about a Black Sea undersea river.

The Golden Horn is an estuary off the main strait that historically acted as a moat to protect Old Istanbul from attack, as well as providing a sheltered anchorage for the imperial navies of various empires until the 19th century, after which it became a historic neighborhood at the heart of the city, popular with tourists and locals alike.
.
.
.
Between its northern limits at Rumeli Feneri and Anadolu Feneri and its southern ones at Ahırkapı Feneri and Kadıköy İnciburnu Feneri, there are numerous dangerous points for large-scale maritime traffic that require sharp turns and management of visual obstructions. Famously, the stretch between Kandilli Point and Aşiyan requires a 45-degree course alteration in a location where the currents can reach 7 to 8 knots (3.6 to 4.1 m/s). To the south, at Yeniköy, the necessary course alteration is 80 degrees. Compounding these difficult changes in trajectory, the rear and forward sight lines at Kandilli and Yeniköy are also completely blocked prior to and during the course alteration, making it impossible for ships approaching from the opposite direction to see around these bends.
(Hey, great places to hide machine guns and artillery to fire down the strait without be seen from directly across the strait.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosporus#Crossings

There are overhead satellite images of both locations.

So the Germans would have to fight down a narrow peninsula in order to cross at one end of the Turkish straits where the land is rough. Artillery fire from Asia would support the defenders in Europe. Then the Germans would have to try an cross to the other side. In WWI, there were Ottoman forts in the area which still might be there with BIG guns. Have fun trying to do this fast.

The other end has a very large city on both sides. City fighting is not fast and is a tank trap if not supported by infantry, while in fact it is infantry country. Then cross to the other side with a swift current pushing the crossing vessels sideways, then more city fighting. Again, artillery fire from the Asian side to help the European side.

Both routes favor the defenders and are anti-armour territory.


Did you see my post about that pitiful Turkish division in Korea? The Turks had just been relieved of their entire empire in the previous war. They are not a serious conventional force. Yes, the straits will be tough. But, considering the overwhelming force that will be brought to bear on them, coupled with strategic surprise and the poor quality of Turkish forces, it will not hold up.

Past that point, there are rail lines all over the country. More than adequate for completing the conquest.

SPI agrees with me, too.




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:08:30 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

I mean we can agree/disagree on what may or may not have happened and that is fine and all part of the fun of debate. But what is more concerning is how you see ‘evidence’. Case in point – you produced this Wiki excerpt. You’ve produced this one paragraph from one Wiki article and produced this as ‘evidence’ of what Japan would definitely not do – even though the circumstances changed! That is the height of narrow minded, limited thinking.


Ignoring the wiki article because it is devastating to your claims is much more narrow minded.

Anyone can edit wiki. It is a starting place especially in certain areas, especially the war in China.

quote:

Japan has a number of problems. She won’t quit China.


She's been in China for years, and left it basically on hold for the duration of the Pacific War. Clearly, it's not as urgent as you think.

Not true. There were still offensive operations later.

quote:

I know you struggle with the whole FIC thing but please, its not that difficult. The Japanese invade FIC (in limited fashion) in September 1940. This led the US – already embargoing certain key goods from sale to Japan – to adding even more materials including iron and steel scrap. The embargo of strategic materials was hurting Japan, but the US stopped short of oil for the moment. But Japan knows that Roosevelt can turn the screw at any time by adding oil to that ever growing list…. We know in real life it was Japan’s second move on the FIC that led to the oil embargo, but the point is, it doesn’t have to be that.


For sure, the historical trigger for the oil embargo doesn't happen. If it still gets embargoed at some later date, the Japanese still have options other than war with the US, as I've already outlined. The US really does not want to join the world war. Roosevelt's hands really are tied.


So there can be another trigger for the oil embargo. The US wanted Japan out of China. That did not include Manchuria but the Japanese did not know that. The Japanese had been asking the Nationalist Chinese government for a peace treaty but the Chinese refused. So with no move South, the Japanese could have gotten deeper into China, who knows what the US would have done.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:10:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I said a full army group.

warspite1

Erm..... that's..... Er....

I don't even know where to start with that. A full army group..... you said a full army group.... Ah right. Because of course a full army group is a set number of armies that each contain a set number of corps and a set number of divisions within.... Furthermore the armour and infantry components of all army groups are of course standard.

Right so presumably you will be providing a sensible answer in due course?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

One rail line per army group in Barbarossa as well. The amount of supply that can be pushed down a rail line is enormous.

warspite1

Indeed my mistake, I forgot that as the German army heads west, south and east the rail line branches off perfectly and there are rail heads at all points of the advance. Silly me......The Germans in Russia never had a problem with supply did they?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Far less of a drain than the Desert War.

warspite1

Then you simply don't understand the numbers involved in either your proposed Spanish adventure or the Desert War.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:14:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

That was the impression I got.

warspite1

Then you really need to pay attention

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Not if Hitler's plan is now to trap the British deep into Libya in 1941.

warspite1

But there is one small problem with the plan on so many levels. I mean let's face it, its total cobblers.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:14:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

No you just don't get it. It doesn't support your position and it doesn't hurt let alone devastate my position.


I guess I just can't read English. [X(]

quote:

The circumstances have changed. The scenario now calls for a decision to be made by Japan, just as per real life. But in making that decision one element has changed, one element only. The hole Japan finds herself in hasn't changed. The mix of hawks and doves, of navy and army, of Russia and the south hasn't changed.

But you just can't seem to grasp the real world picture.


A very, very major element has changed.

quote:

Before the article was 'found' wow. This is War in the Pacific 101 for crying out loud.

So we suspend disbelief and say Japan goes with your do nothing approach. Next month the US unilaterally embargo oil. Let's be clear, are you saying Japan continues to do nothing? Her navy is burning 400 tons an hour but he Japanese continue to do nothing? Is that what you are saying? So what is this massive array of options that has just opened for the Japanese thanks to getting their oil supply almost completely cut off, her assets frozen and all the existing embargoes - including lubricants, scrap metal etc in place?


If that happens - and you have no basis for it to happen - Japan has two viable options:

1. Depend upon her two year stockpile of oil.

2. Occupy the DEI. Whereupon we know the US will do nothing.

quote:

That's funny. The war in China is on hold. Must be profit making then eh?


Clearly it was not a urgent as you are claiming.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:22:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The movie "Darkest Hour" showed Churchill being briefed about the Germans using fast motor boats for the invasion. Clearly, it was a very real concern.

warspite1

[sm=happy0005.gif][sm=happy0005.gif]

So that is what that nonsense was about..... well if it was in the movie. Priceless.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:23:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Erm..... that's..... Er....

I don't even know where to start with that. A full army group..... you said a full army group.... Ah right. Because of course a full army group is a set number of armies that each contain a set number of corps and a set number of divisions within.... Furthermore the armour and infantry components of all army groups are of course standard.

Right so presumably you will be providing a sensible answer in due course?


No detail will be necessary. It will be whatever it takes to be overwhelming.

quote:

Indeed my mistake, I forgot that as the German army heads west, south and east the rail line branches off perfectly and there are rail heads at all points of the advance.


The different rail gauge limited how much repair they could do.

quote:

Silly me......The Germans in Russia never had a problem with supply did they?


Made it to the gates of Moscow. Spain will be a piece of cake in comparison.

quote:

Then you simply don't understand the numbers involved in either your proposed Spanish adventure or the Desert War.

No. You are overestimating the cost of the Spanish operation for obvious craven reasons.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:35:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I guess I just can't read English. [X(]

warspite1

I don't doubt your ability to read, but I am certainly surprised by your inability to understand something quite basic

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

A very, very major element has changed.

warspite1

No. Why is it causing you such difficulty. Allow me:

Scenario 1. 1941 Barbarossa doesn't happen. The reason is that Germany and the USSR have joined together as one big happy family and Hitler gives his blessing to Stalin to attack Japan. So no Barbarossa BUT the reason for there being no Barbarossa is important.

Scenario 2. 1941 Barbarossa doesn't happen. The reason this time is that Germany are finishing off the last of the resistance in the west and North Africa before turning on Stalin. Japan is about as far from Stalin's thoughts as Pluto. Again, no Barbarossa BUT this time the reason for no Barbarossa is very different.

You see two examples. No 1941 Barbarossa - but the background to why that is couldn't be more different and will produce a different response from Japan. Whereas your simplistic view is: No Barbarossa. The reason is unimportant. Japan can't take her historic path. End of Story. It's just unthinking, unquestioning, simplistic nonsense. NOW is it getting through?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

If that happens Japan has two viable options:

1. Depend upon her two year stockpile of oil.

warspite1

Let's hope you never get to run a country.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

2. Occupy the DEI. Whereupon we know the US will do nothing.

warspite1

That's right Curtis Lemay. And of course that is why in real life Japan took that course of action and only attacked the NEI..... no wait hold on...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Clearly it was not a urgent as you are claiming.

warspite1

Again it's like you have to put everything in silos to cope. Look at Japan as a whole. Look at her situation. Yes, the war in China was going nowhere it was massively costly in money it was massively costly in resources.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:43:48 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No detail will be necessary. It will be whatever it takes to be overwhelming.

warspite1

Sorry I thought we were being serious about this. Is that really the level at which you want to conduct this?

If so then yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya (for the British). You see the British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The different rail gauge limited how much repair they could do.

Made it to the gates of Moscow. Spain will be a piece of cake in comparison.

warspite1

Well it was pointless asking the question now I know it will take what it takes to be overwhelming......

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No. You are overestimating the cost of the Spanish operation.

warspite1

Yes but in fairness I said that before I realised that everything is going to be overwhelming. I hadn't factored in that wonderful piece of incisive, en pointe, in depth analysis.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:50:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The movie "Darkest Hour" showed Churchill being briefed about the Germans using fast motor boats for the invasion. Clearly, it was a very real concern.

warspite1

[sm=happy0005.gif][sm=happy0005.gif]

So that is what that nonsense was about..... well if it was in the movie. Priceless.



Happy to have Darkest Hour on my side, too. Along with all the wargame designers and Wikipedia.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:56:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

No. Why is it causing you such difficulty. Allow me:

Scenario 1. 1941 Barbarossa doesn't happen. The reason is that Germany and the USSR have joined together as one big happy family and Hitler gives his blessing to Stalin to attack Japan. THAT is a very very major element changing and Japan would need to get the hell out of China and pray. Attacking anywhere is not going to happen.

Scenario 2. 1941 Barbarossa doesn't happen. The reason is that Germany are finishing off the last of the resistance in the west and North Africa before turning on Stalin. Japan is about as far from Stalin's thoughts as Pluto. THAT is a major element changing (no Barbarossa) but it has no effect on Japan taking their historical action.


Japan doesn't know what Stalin is thinking. No Barbarossa has a huge impact on Japan's plans.

quote:

Let's hope you never get to run a country.


So, if you were running Japan, you would have gone to war with the US over oil? Let's hope you never run a country.

quote:

That's right Curtis Lemay. And of course that is why in real life Japan took that course of action..... no wait hold on...


Now there's no Barbarossa. Different circumstances mean different actions.

quote:

Again it's like you have to put everything in silos to cope. Look at China as a whole. Look at her situation. Yes, the war in China was going nowhere it was massively costly in money it was massively costly in resources.


And it was massively on hold for the duration of the Pacific War.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 4:58:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The movie "Darkest Hour" showed Churchill being briefed about the Germans using fast motor boats for the invasion. Clearly, it was a very real concern.

warspite1

[sm=happy0005.gif][sm=happy0005.gif]

So that is what that nonsense was about..... well if it was in the movie. Priceless.



Happy to have Darkest Hour on my side, too. Along with all the wargame designers and Wikipedia.
warspite1

Honestly given the detail you've provided about the invasion forces for Spain I don't know why you haven't included a Sea Lion in your scenario too.

All you need to do is put an army group on the coast, some aircraft and some ships. So long as its understood that it will take what it takes to be overwhelming the British don't have a prayer.




Curtis Lemay -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 5:05:23 PM)

quote:

Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.


The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.

In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":

https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/I/information_hiding.html#:~:text=%20%20%201%20%281%29%20In%20programming%2C%20the,%282%29%20Another%20term%20for%20digital%20watermarking.%20More%20

You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.

So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 5:08:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Japan doesn't know what Stalin is thinking. No Barbarossa has a huge impact on Japan's plans.

warspite1

Of course they don't. However they can see what is happening in Europe just as well as Stalin....

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

So, if you were running Japan, you would have gone to war with the US over oil? Let's hope you never run a country.

warspite1

Curtis, Curtis, Curtis what is it???? I am at a loss. What I would do is totally and utterly irrelevant to anything. We are trying - or at least I thought we were trying when I thought this was an attempt at a serious discussion - to put ourselves in the position of the Japanese leaders at the time - you know, the ones who went to war with the US over oil!!!!!!!!!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Now there's no Barbarossa. Different circumstances mean different actions.

warspite1

No. Different circumstances mean potentially different actions. We are trying to work out what they would have done given a) what they did historically, b) who was making the decisions, c) what the likely effects of each option were. There is NOTHING written in stone to say the outcome may not have been the same.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

And it was massively on hold for the duration of the Pacific War.

warspite1

But why was it? I thought you were suggesting it didn't cost much and "not as urgent as [I was] claiming". OR maybe, as I was suggesting it was just one great big drain on resources, a drain that had to take a back seat given the decisions the Japanese made in particular from July 1941 onwards.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 5:16:32 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.


The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.

In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":

You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.

So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.

warspite1

Answered later on




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 5:26:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

To invade the Brits, the Germans need air superiority over the Channel. So there was going to be a BoB regardless.

And does anyone really think the RN would just stand by while barges full of troops were being towed across the Channel?

And the landings themselves.... The German army wanted a far wider landing zone than their navy could cover.

And it all had to be done before rough weather put a stop to it. Barges don't like rough weather.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_anti-invasion_preparations_of_the_Second_World_War

And this all assumes that the principal players didn't act they way that they did. In other words, Hitler did not decide in July 1940 to invade Russia in 1941. Goring actually knew how to run the Luftwaffe. Churchill, Tovey, Dowding, and the rest doing nothing to counter.

And invading Russia in 1942? How many divisions would be tied down on garrison duty in England? And Spain if Hitler was crackpot enough to invade them? All those divisions subtracted from invading Russia. And what about Russia. The Red Army would of been in a much better position.

Just might regret getting into this. But oh well.......
warspite1

Hey Emperor, don't worry you are quite safe - there is no Sea Lion envisaged in this scenario [:)]

But there is plenty of room for this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu2NqfISm9k

Heil, Heil Ziggedy Heil!




Zorch -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 5:26:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.


The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.

In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":

https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/I/information_hiding.html#:~:text=%20%20%201%20%281%29%20In%20programming%2C%20the,%282%29%20Another%20term%20for%20digital%20watermarking.%20More%20

You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.

So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.

Yes, yes, Steiner's attack will set everything right. [;)]




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 5:39:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

And, all they have to do is get to Madrid, whereupon Spain will surrender and her forces will dissolve.

warspite1

Why is that then? How do you know that will definitely happen? Spain was a very fractured country. Why are the Basques or the Catalans necessarily going to throw in the towel if Madrid falls? You have regional, religious and political factions. Sure they will be united in their hatred for the treacherous Germans, but when push comes to shove they will defend their own too. There is no rule that says a country stops fighting with the loss of the capital.




warspite1 -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 5:57:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The point is: They can't discount the invasion threat regardless of what the Germans do or don't do.

warspite1

The British can't discount it completely, of course not. But you have this rather quaint notion that regardless of whether the Germans launch a full on BoB operation or sit around doing nothing but sampling the delights of the fleshpots of downtown Paris, the British will take the same precautions, release the same number of troops and air assets elsewhere. Its fanciful.




RangerJoe -> RE: The question to ask about The Italians (8/28/2020 8:26:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.


The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.

In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":

https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/I/information_hiding.html#:~:text=%20%20%201%20%281%29%20In%20programming%2C%20the,%282%29%20Another%20term%20for%20digital%20watermarking.%20More%20

You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.

So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.


The problem with using the "right" amount of force is judging how much is too much or how much is too little. You might be missing a nail, and for the want of a nail . . .

Fast speed boats for a channel invasion? Unless there is a massive CAP overhead they will get bombed and strafed. Enemy fast speed boats countering that they will have to sail through under fire, not to mention DDs and other fast vessels. Then artillery fire from shore besides. Then how much can they land in one go? Because while they are debarking their load, they are very vulnerable. So how many make it through on their first and probably only chance?




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